U-Ball

TheIncredibleRox · 06-02-2008, 05:59 PM

He's been called a disappointment this season, and the superficial numbers back it up. But if anything, I'm somewhat thrilled by what he's been able to accomplish thus far.

A). He's been getting murdered on BABIP. This is certainly temporary, and he's survived it quite well.

B). It's still early, but thus far he's come up with a phenomenal ground ball rate. Control be damned; when you miss as many bats as he does and get as many groundballs as he has thus far, you're destined for either darn good or positively great things.

BigRapidsJackass · 06-02-2008, 06:58 PM

(A) BABIP.

Thanks for pointing that out. I looked it up myself. .269 BABIP last year (82 IP); .359 this year (64 IP). Mix them together and you've got a normal BABIP, and a guy who's numbers look a whole lot better all of a sudden.

(B) GB rate. Again: 56.4% GB. Compare: Cook = 59%. Promising, too.

Over at baseballanalysts.com, they've been periodically doing scatterplots with K rate on the Y axis and GB rate on the X axis. The theory: the "can't miss" guys are high on both -- they're the ones in the upper right quadrant. Ubaldo is one of those guys now, and the future still looks bright because of it.

Heltonfan · 06-02-2008, 11:48 PM

Quote:

Ubaldo is one of those guys now.

Not really. His K rate is league average, more or less (look at K/BF, not K/IP).

And even with a GB rate as good as he has now, his current HR rate is completely unsustainable.

That said, yes, I'm encouraged. I'm confident now that he's at least a solid #3 starter (ERC in the 4.10-4.20 range), which is a lot more than I could say at the beginning of the season.

Obviously, the big question is whether he can sustain this GB rate; I'll leave that to people who have actually gotten to watch him.

TheIncredibleRox · 06-03-2008, 12:53 AM

You know, these are the type of 'little things' that matter and are currently killing U-Ball: career 26 SB allowed, 1 CS. 4 career errors in 41 total chances. Both of those are entirely correctable flaws; I'm willing to cut the coaching staff a little slack here, because 'baldo was sort of brought up in a hurry. But it's time to start making a dent in those ugly stats.

TheIncredibleRox · 07-23-2008, 12:06 PM

Baldo: just your pitch-to-contact, groundball type guy... ;-)

After last night, he's to 2.18 GB/FB on the season. I couldn't be happier.

I was at the game last night... kid hit 98 on the stadium guns in the bottom of the 9th.

TheIncredibleRox · 07-23-2008, 12:48 PM

Quote:

Obviously, the big question is whether he can sustain this GB rate; I'll leave that to people who have actually gotten to watch him.

Thats the thing: if he's throwing a 2-seamer, it's got just as much velocity as the four. And when you're throwing a 2-seamer mid/upper 90's, it's tough to get the thing to move. So I'm not sure where this is coming from, but at this point, it appears to be very much a real improvement.

06-02-2008, 05:59 PM	#1 (permalink)
TheIncredibleRox Member Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 275	U-Ball He's been called a disappointment this season, and the superficial numbers back it up. But if anything, I'm somewhat thrilled by what he's been able to accomplish thus far. A). He's been getting murdered on BABIP. This is certainly temporary, and he's survived it quite well. B). It's still early, but thus far he's come up with a phenomenal ground ball rate. Control be damned; when you miss as many bats as he does and get as many groundballs as he has thus far, you're destined for either darn good or positively great things.

06-02-2008, 06:58 PM	#2 (permalink)
BigRapidsJackass Veteran Member Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 1,124	(A) BABIP. Thanks for pointing that out. I looked it up myself. .269 BABIP last year (82 IP); .359 this year (64 IP). Mix them together and you've got a normal BABIP, and a guy who's numbers look a whole lot better all of a sudden. (B) GB rate. Again: 56.4% GB. Compare: Cook = 59%. Promising, too. Over at baseballanalysts.com, they've been periodically doing scatterplots with K rate on the Y axis and GB rate on the X axis. The theory: the "can't miss" guys are high on both -- they're the ones in the upper right quadrant. Ubaldo is one of those guys now, and the future still looks bright because of it.

06-03-2008, 12:53 AM	#4 (permalink)
TheIncredibleRox Member Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 275	You know, these are the type of 'little things' that matter and are currently killing U-Ball: career 26 SB allowed, 1 CS. 4 career errors in 41 total chances. Both of those are entirely correctable flaws; I'm willing to cut the coaching staff a little slack here, because 'baldo was sort of brought up in a hurry. But it's time to start making a dent in those ugly stats.

07-23-2008, 12:06 PM	#5 (permalink)
TheIncredibleRox Member Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 275	Baldo: just your pitch-to-contact, groundball type guy... ;-) After last night, he's to 2.18 GB/FB on the season. I couldn't be happier. I was at the game last night... kid hit 98 on the stadium guns in the bottom of the 9th.