2008 Baseball Draft is Thursday

[Newman]

I don't even know what number we get to pick this year in the draft or who we are expected to take.

Hopefully we'll take the best player available, who isn't represented by Scott Boros of course, and improve the club.

What are the rumors out there? Who are we expected to go after? Does Jay Bruce have a younger brother?

[wolf213]

Originally Posted by Newman

I don't even know what number we get to pick this year in the draft or who we are expected to take.

Hopefully we'll take the best player available, who isn't represented by Scott Boros of course, and improve the club.

What are the rumors out there? Who are we expected to go after? Does Jay Bruce have a younger brother?

We have pick 1.25

Baseball America has us taking Jake Odorizzi, while it says we have also checked out Anthony Hewitt, and Jason Castro.

Odorizzi is a RHP, who was ranked the 32 best prospect by Baseball America. Basically has a sinking 90-93 MHP fastball, and an ok slider. Good Mechanics and being an High Schooler, he has potential to get better. He's been rated by some teams as the best High School Pitcher in the draft.

Hewitt is an IF/OF and I believe has been called the best athlete in the draft. BA Ranks him at number 41 and he has very raw talent, but is a high risk high reward type of player, but has excellent raw power. Again he's a high schooler and is commented to Vanderbilt, so we would have to open up the wallet to get him.

Jason Castro is a Catcher, who seems to be the safest of the three, however he probably has the lowest upside. Some compare his bat to Mark Teahen of the Royals, which at the catching positions would be fine, however his defense is said to be average at best, and probably a notch below average. Still BA Ranks him at 21.

[hiaspire]

There will be a handful of power-hitting 1B taken in the first round as the most well stocked area of the draft. If a good one slips to the Rockies, it could legitimately be seen as the heir apparent there unlike other 1B prospects from the past. I could see a 1B falling because it isn't traditionally where many teams focus when looking at first round athletes and arms with upside.

Players can easily fall in the MLB draft, but Hosmer (HS), Smoak (college), and Alfonso (college) probably wouldn't get to us. Garrett Atkins-ish Brett Wallace is usually listed after those guys so could possibly last despite being mentioned in several places ahead of us including the 8-spot. Wallace's teammate Ike Davis may well be there because of an injury and inconsistencies but was having a very strong offensive season also and good power potential.

Minorleaguebaseball.com has some great information and video on most 1st round possibilities. Here are some links for the players mentioned before for the Rox above:

Minor League Baseball: Events: 2008 Draft Report

Minor League Baseball: Events: 2008 Draft Report

Minor League Baseball: Events: 2008 Draft Report

I don't think any of them will be there for us (Castro maybe). If picking a catcher, I like the Roockies looking for bigger bat potential there in our park and Brett Lawrie would be the fit there for that.

With our young pitchers having some trouble this year, you would also see the team feeling they need to re-load and increase their depth there to create more options down the road. Usually you don't see great starting prospects slip unless it is because of signability which would put us out of it anyway. Gerrit Cole has that high potential and velocity, but likely isn't a match because of the baggage and signability concern. They'd be more likely to take a lower-ceiling innings eater type college arm there low in the first round, but Ryan Perry seems like he could be a nice fit for us who could be a fast rising reliever or take it slower learning to be a starter with top of the rotation type potential who can get good sink on the ball.

An interesting choice who feels a little like other athletic Rockies CF picks (some potentially good and most bad) could be Anthony Gose who will have a longer path to the majors but upside as either a speedy OF or hard throwing lefty.

Jemile Weeks may be a good positional fit for a leadoff 2B or CF who could probably move up the system quickly.

If they don't pick Weeks, I'd like them to take a flyer on Brandon Crawford in the 2nd round who was thought to be a possible high first round SS talent coming into the season but fell off this year who could possibly line up next to Tulo in the middle infield down the road.

Picking so low it's hard to put your money/hopes on anybody because who knows who will be there, but at this point before knowing more about those players as the draft hype approaches, I'd be pretty happy with Wallace, Lawrie, Weeks, or Perry on the mound and I think most of them have a good chance of being there.

[Newman]

Couldn't read your handwriting, wolf. Did you mean to say we have the 25th pick in the first round? Then I'm not expecting very much. When you pick that late, well, why not go for best upside? I still can't get over the draft where we picked Greg Reynolds, who hasn't shown me anything, instead of Evan Longoria, who seems to be a mainstay of the Rays lineup, with the 2nd overall pick of that draft!

You have to be able to pick a stud with the second overall pick. It's not a crapshoot then. Plenty of contributing players, stars, like that Scherzer pitcher from Arizona were picked after Reynolds. This is part of the reason why our Rox are a last place team.

What's the ratio of Tulo types vs. Reynolds types that this franchise picks in its drafts?

[BigRapidsJackass]

What's the ratio of Tulo types vs. Reynolds types that this franchise picks in its drafts?

Let's see what we've done with 1st round picks in the O'Dowd era. I'll divide the "Reynolds types" ("safe" picks, very unlikely to be complete busts but also unlikely to blossom into major stars) from the "Chris Nelson types" (toolsy, typically high school players with higher upside but a greater chance of being a bust).

Reynolds types:

Weathers '07 (projects as a power arm closer or setup guy)
Reynolds '06 (obviously)
Tulo '05 (remember, he was widely considered a "safe" pick -- a reasonably sure thing to be a starting SS within 2-3 years but unlikely to be an All Star type)
Francis '02 (nobody ever called him a "potential ace;" they called him "a polished #2/#3 type who may be big-league ready very quickly")

Chris Nelson types:
Nelson '04 (obviously; a high schooler who is a tremendous athlete, converted from pitching after arm trouble)
Stewart '03 (another high schooler; tremendous power for his age)
Matt Harrington '00 (was that Gebhard's last year? High School power arm derailed by nutty father)

[I left Jayson Nix off both lists. He was our first pick in '01, but only the 44th player selected overall. He doesn't count, and even if he did I'm not sure he'd fit in either category. In fact, I'd have to say he's the worst kind of pick: a high schooler lacking in tremendous tools; kind of a hybrid attempt at a "can't miss" guy without the college track record. Safe to now say it: he missed.]

So, in other words, it's about 50/50, with a strong trend toward going with the "sure thing" the last few years.

Of course, sometimes the "sure thing" turns out to be (in retrospect) the highest ceiling guy. Tulo in '05 and Longoria in '06 are great examples of that.

I can't really pick on O'Dowd because, after all, the Tulo pick was so great.

A little more detail, going back through the O'Dowd years and into Geb's finale:

'07: So far (other than Rick Porcello, who was way, way out of our price range) it's tough to say how the Weathers pick will turn out relative to the players we could've had at #7. We'll know pretty soon. Weathers was one of those guys picked with an early arrival date in mind, so if he's not contributing by next year he was a mistake.

'06: Clearly, the Reynolds pick looks like a bad one with the 2nd selection overall. We could've had Longoria (Newman's choice) or Lincecum (my choice) without any additional expenditure. Clayton Kershaw cost more, but clearly has a much higher ceiling, and we passed on that, too. On the other hand, the Yanks might gladly swap Ian Kennedy for Reynolds right now.

In '05, we could've passed on Tulo and taken Mike Pelfrey or Jay Bruce or Cameron Maybin or Jacoby Ellsbury or Matt Garza. Again, slow April start this year and all, I wouldn't even think of undoing that one. Then again, Reynolds is kind of like Pelfrey, isn't he?

In '04, we took Nelson over Jered Weaver (signability) and Stephen Drew (same) and Philip Hughes (same). In retrospect, that looks to me like a draft in which we should've opened up the pursestrings a bit. Nothing wrong with Nelson, but there was a lot of talent left on the board for purely financial reasons. This one is already coming back to haunt us.

I can't find fault with Stewart in '03. Some of the guys we could've had: Milledge, Saltalamacchia, Conor Jackson, Daric Barton, Brandon Wood, Ryan Wagner, Chad Billingsely. Some (Wagner) are already busts. Some (Wood) are getting awfully close to being busts. Only Billingsley strikes me as a legitimate star in the making.

We took Francis in '02 when we could've had Joe Saunders (Francis got a big jump on him, but in the end they'll probably have similar careers), Jeremy Hermida (I still think a breakout is coming), Nick Swisher, Cole Hamels, Khalil Greene, Matt Cain (that's the one I would've really liked to have plucked out of high school). The verdict depends on what Francis does these next 3 years.

'01 was the Nix year (44th pick). We passed on guys like Andy Sisco (safe to say "bust" now), Kelly Shoppach (we could've avoided the Larry Bigbie Era), JJ Hardy, Dallas McPherson, and a bunch of other Nix-like busts. The real mistake was losing the picks in exchange for Hampton and Neagle.

'00 hurts. Matt Harrington instead of Chase Utley. Of course, 7 other clubs passed on Utley after us, taking such immortals as Matt Wheatland (who?), Mark Phillips (who?), Joe Torres (who?), and Beau Hale (who? Would've thought I'd remember that name) instead.

[Dante Bichette]

Did you look that info up, Jackass, or do you have the greates memory every, combined with way too much free time on your hands?

[BigRapidsJackass]

do you have the greates memory every

Yes

Did you look that info up, Jackass

Yes

combined with way too much free time on your hands?

Yes, or what better way to spend my lunch hour?

[Newman]

That was a great draft review, Jackass. I personally really enjoyed it.

Q: is Chris Nelson still in the pipeline,still have any potential of being a Rockie?

I would take anyof the other choices in 06, Lincecom, Longoria, Kershaw, plus Max Scherzer of the DBacks, all of them over Greg Reynolds.

At the moment I would take Bruce Almighty over Tulo, but I suppose Tulo won't be injured forever, so that one doesn't sting so much.

Signability. That really hurts when you have a poor ownership. How do you ever catch up to the elite teams if you don't draft the best talent available? You don't. Look at our Rox now. Pathetic. WE are already out of it.

Makes last season really seem like a dream. Now we are back to normal, the laughing stock of the NL West, cellar dwellers, waiting for Bronco mini camp to begin. Ugh. What, Travis Henry is gone? Ugh.

I had a dream when we got this team that we would get a good core group and then improve it year after year, both in the draft and via free agency. Sigh...only a dream.

WE coulda had Chase Utley in 00! Only a dream...

[hiaspire]

It’s interesting how much things changed for some players between mock drafts for BA. In the one I was using before for some of my posted expectations, Ryan Perry wasn’t mentioned at all for any team’s mock selection summary until pick 29. That was less than 3 weeks ago, and now he’s mentioned frequently for many teams ahead of us starting at #13 and projected to go 22. The best info always seems to come out the morning of the draft.

Sounds like the Rockies would also prefer to draft Perry if available, so I guess we were thinking similarly as he's a guy I have been focused on recently as our pick.

Between Odorizzi (who is most often projected to us) and Perry, I would have expected the high school hurler with smooth mechanics and a live arm to move up the charts more than the college reliever who struggled as a starter, but that doesn’t look like the case with Odorizzi reportedly more likely to be there for us than Perry if what we read today is true. Although I really like something about Perry’s potential, I was expecting Odorizzi’s to be the name in today’s mock drafts to be gone before us instead of Perry—and still feel it may end up that way despite today’s knowledgeable projections.

Also until I see otherwise, I do still expect at least one of the many 1B with a good bat to fall in the draft as team’s historically have other preferences in the first round to create a great value pick for a team selecting low. Whether we are looking at those players or not, an opportunity might emerge there for something better than what we were looking at otherwise.

Two positional good fits for us seem to be Weeks and Hewitt. 3 weeks ago Weeks wasn’t in BA’s mock first round, and today seems like he’ll be gone before us with a couple teams looking at him, but depends upon who else is there when those teams pick. Anthony Hewitt was gone before we picked in the previous mock draft but today feels more likely to be there for us, and seems like the athletic type of player they like to select. It seems likely that he’ll be a CFer with pop and good speed, so that’s another good match (or even if he moves from SS to 2B and stays in the infield). Great upside there and should provide above average power at either of those need areas for us.

Perry, Odorizzi, Weeks, or Hewitt… or maybe a surprise falling like a highly rated 1B bat or Hicks or Melville… all seem like they would be solid selections and satisfy this fan. Shooter Hunt is about the only guy listed around our pick area that I’d prefer not to see us select (although he has some good points too) and initially kind of worried about that with our history of college arms.

With the shortage of pitching this year and the desire for it generally, you could easily see both Perry and Odorizzi gone before we pick. Hopefully one of them will be there, but if not I think Hewitt would be our man. He'd be a very good pick in terms of upside and athleticism and being value to our lower than usual selection this year.

[hiaspire]

Rockies pick Christian Friedrich (college LHP). He's not a huge ceiling guy (probably #3/4 type starter) but according to some experts the biggest value player in terms of where they were expected to go and where they actually did.

Minor League Baseball: Events: 2008 Draft Report

So I think it was a good value pick for us there with a guy likely to be a big league player, but not something to get overly excited about. Sometimes those picks turn out to be the best ones, though. There wasn't a lot of excitement over Tulo or Francis I don't believe in general, but they end up being key parts to a winning season and core of the team.

BA had him as the 11th best player in their last draft tracker and we get him 25th so that's a solid and defendable pick at least.

[TheIncredibleRox]

Point taken on the gap between his projected slot and where he signed. But there are a couple things I don't like here: A) Small school pitcher B) Command not said to be great C) Not a very high-octane fastball.

That said, if the projection is correct and he's a #3 starter who will come quickly, thats perfectly acceptable for a #25 pick. I'd have gone for the ceiling of Gerrit Cole, who I can't believe was still on the board.

[BigRapidsJackass]

I won't pretend to know anything about any of these guys (this seemed to be a draft without any major hype), so I'll follow Aspire and say "good pick" when you get a guy thought to be in the top 10-15 with the 25th pick.

At 25, I think we'd be ecstatic if we found a Jeff Francis type.

IR, what's the story on Gerrit Cole? Who got him and why are you so high on him? Apparently just about every other GM wasn't ...

[TheIncredibleRox]

3 good pitches for strikes, one of which is a FB hitting 98 as a highschooler. Projectable body too. Scott Boras advising him may have scared some off. Yankees got him a couple picks after us.

Like you pointed out, I'm not claiming to be an expert here either. But we definitely chose safety over ceiling here.

Hey, our second round pick, Blackmon (which is an odd name for a white mon) is intriguing. Looks like a white Ichiro wannabe.

[TheIncredibleRox]

Damn Dodgers just took Kyle Russell in the third, who I know nothing about except... he hit 47 homers for Texas over the last two years. And the rest of his team combined for just 82 during the same time. I don't know how that makes you anything but a first rounder.

[Zen653]

It's difficult to evaluate baseball draft picks. This isn't the NBA or NFL where most players can be counted upon to make an immediate impact. You have to wait at least a couple years before you enjoy any rewards, and more than half of first round draft picks never even reach the majors, let alone start for a team. It's really a crapshoot, so I don't know how anyone can get too disappointed in missing out on a certain player.