Let the "Trade Holliday" Debate Begin, Again

[BigRapidsJackass]

Today's Denver Post included an idiotic rationale for trading Holliday from Woody Paige (essentially consisting of, "let's trade him for a second-year star player" like Tim Lincecum; even Brian Sabean isn't that dumb), and a fairly dull counterpoint (let's re-sign him no matter what it takes).

To which my response is:

It doesn't matter. You're asking the wrong question. The question is this: are we going to make a real run for it in '09? Or are we going to regroup and try to build toward '10 and later?

If we're making a run for it, then keep Holliday for next year, trade guys who will be free agents after this year (Fuentes) to get someone who may help next year, and lay out some serious free agent money in the offseason.

If we're regrouping, then pull the trigger on a Holliday deal if and when the offer is right. And no, you won't be getting an important regular player or starter from, say, the Indians (no Cliff Lee, since the Indians would be making the deal to win NOW, and it would be self-defeating for them to create a new hole to fill). But you might be getting at least one blue chipper who might be expected to debut in September, or in '10 at the latest, along with a few other minor league prospects with top tools who are several years away.

And on a semi-related point regarding the Sage of LoDo, the Jackass from Big Rapids himself, Mr. Clinton Merrick Hurdle:

Brian Fuentes vs. LH hitters, career: .639 OPS
Brian Fuentes vs. LH hitters this year: .284 OPS

Number of LH hitters Fuentes has faced this year: 18

That's one left hitter vs. Fuentes every 3 games. Granted, managers will pinch hit for less-skilled lefties when Fuentes comes in, but managers aren't going to pull an Adrian Gonzalez or even a Brian Giles. Clint, you have an extremely valuable commodity and you're grossly misusing him. Dan O'Dowd: ship him to someone else who recognizes his value as a situational lefty and who'll give us something we can use in return.

[wolf213]

Originally Posted by BigRapidsJackass

Today's Denver Post included an idiotic rationale for trading Holliday from Woody Paige (essentially consisting of, "let's trade him for a second-year star player" like Tim Lincecum; even Brian Sabean isn't that dumb), and a fairly dull counterpoint (let's re-sign him no matter what it takes).

To which my response is:

It doesn't matter. You're asking the wrong question. The question is this: are we going to make a real run for it in '09? Or are we going to regroup and try to build toward '10 and later?

You raise a very good question. I think if we are serious about competing next year, then we need to make a bold statement this season and fire the Big Rapids Jackass. I don't think he's the guy to take this team to the next level, and last season the team won in spite of him, not because of him.

If the team is serious about winning next year, then show some accountability. Bring in a guy who will not put up with players looking at strike three when its pitched right down the middle (I'm looking at you Willy), bring in a guy who is going to play his best players 90% of the time. Bring in a guy who will make the correct moves on his coaching staff, especially when 4 pitchers who were very good last year, took a huge step back this year. Or a training staff who will make sure that half of the team doesn't get hurt.

Until this ownership is serious about who they have conducting this train, Holliday should be all but gone.

[Heltonfan]

The question is this: are we going to make a real run for it in '09? Or are we going to regroup and try to build toward '10 and later?

False dichotomy. The right answer to this problem, as demonstrated by the A's right now, and as would be demonstrated by the Twins if they cared enough to assemble a half-decent infield, is to trade the star player and contend the following year in spite of it (or, ideally, because of it), setting yourself up nicely for the long-term in the process.

We ought to be able to get something like 3.5 WAR of 2009 value in return for Holliday (whether it's Garza/Brignac from Tampa Bay, Gutierrez/Miller from Cleveland, McGowan from Toronto, miscellaneous goodies from LAA, Jurrjens and others from ATL, or whatever). Holliday projects as a 4.5-WAR player next year. So that's a drop-off of 1 win, and a savings of $13 million. Doesn't hurt us in the slightest. In fact, I would say that our ceiling in 2009 ought to be higher without Holliday than with him.