random off-topic thread

[HoyaRoxFan]

Heltonfan, you can't be a linguist and a sabermatrician; that's not fair, nor is it right. Numbers or words, you have to pick one or the other.

And Jackass, is Tsao really the guy to get on the soapbox about as an example of Rockies mismanagement this decade? I mean, let's pick our battles here... My memory of him as a Rockie was just frustration mostly, wondering if the dude would ever get off the DL or be able to play when he wasn't trying to avoid joining the military back home. When they finally let him go, I don't remember feeling surprised or shocked. And the fact that he's now putting in some good months as a reliever a few years later, well, it's about time he did something... why couldn't he have gotten it together here?

We've been a bad team this decade and, yes, mismanaged. For all our roster turnover, there's plenty of guys we've hung on too long with, hoping they'd get better... the fact that a reliever slipped through the cracks and eventually did ok somewhere else... I dunno, I'd save my soapbox for some of the other misdeeds.

[BigRapidsJackass]

Tsao's only the latest example of poor roster management and poor decisionmaking overall.

It all comes down to having no coherent strategy to build a winning club in a realistic timeframe.

[GerryInCS]

Personally, I think getting rid of Tsao was the right move. He's been injured nearly every season he was in the Rox organization. Now that he's gone, he's still getting hurt. The only downside of this is that we experimented with herges, Lawrence, Mabry and Finley. Of all the moves the Rox Brain(less) Trust has made in the past couple of years, this was one of the better ones. Dumping Jennings and Chacon were the two best moves, though.

[indianadrew]

did anyone else hear helton on rome today? one thing that i heard that stood out was how he feels he deserves hits because he has worked harder to get hits than the pitcher has worked to keep him from getting them. he also said that there is a winning atmosphere in the clubhouse, and how he really wants to be in the playoffs. i missed alot of early in the interview, did he talk about being traded?

poor paris hilton.

[Newman]

Hasn't she suffered enough?

I'd like to have someone ask Helton why he doesn't have any power anymore. Could it be that he stopped taking steroids?

He has 6 home runs as I type. Is this what you want from a cleanup hitter? I suppose that's more than Tommy Herr ever had, but...

Where do you bat Helton and Atkins? I heard this kicked around by Sandy Clough on Saturday, local radio. You have to move Atkins out of the 5 hole. And Helton out of the 4 spot. Don't you?

[wolf213]

Originally Posted by Newman

Hasn't she suffered enough?

I'd like to have someone ask Helton why he doesn't have any power anymore. Could it be that he stopped taking steroids?

He has 6 home runs as I type. Is this what you want from a cleanup hitter? I suppose that's more than Tommy Herr ever had, but...

Where do you bat Helton and Atkins? I heard this kicked around by Sandy Clough on Saturday, local radio. You have to move Atkins out of the 5 hole. And Helton out of the 4 spot. Don't you?

Newman, Helton is number 5 in all of baseball in OPS among 1st basemen, and number 12 overall. To say he isn't valuable because he only has 6 homeruns, is probably the most ridiculous thing you have ever said. Outside of Holliday, he been our most valuable player, and clearly is an asset at the number 4 spot.

[Newman]

Ridiculous?

I admit Wolf that I'm not a stat head. I didn't grow up with OPS. I had no idea that Helton was such a great player still. That must be why we are in first place in the NL West, as usual, as I type.

I just harken back to the day when Helton hit 49 homers. I'm not used to having a cleanup hitter who will project to 23 home runs, when his home field is Coors.

In the old days I recall hearing a discussion comparing Boggs to Brett. George sacrificed some hits for power. Boggs, a big man himself physically, continued to keep his focus, and get his meaningless singles. They're both in the HOF but George Brett is bigger in my mind.

Meaningless singles. Is it possible that OPS doesn't tell the whole story? I'd follow baseball more if we had a playoff team. Nice roadtrip so far...

[Heltonfan]

Is it possible that OPS doesn't tell the whole story?

Very much so. Helton's a considerably better hitter than his OPS would indicate, because his line is extremely OBP-heavy.

I had no idea that Helton was such a great player still. That must be why we are in first place in the NL West, as usual, as I type.

We're in fourth place because the roster as a whole is mediocre. You know that perfectly well. The team is 31-32 right now; that's a .492 winning percentage. Based on their component stats, they've played .496 ball so far. The advanced metrics aren't missing anything of significance.

This isn't about being a "stat-head" or not. It's about recognizing that evaluating a hitter by one number (in this case, HR) rather than his entire line is misleading and utterly indefensible.

Sabermetrics isn't statistical voodoo, it's common sense.

[hiaspire]

Originally Posted by Heltonfan

Sabermetrics isn't statistical voodoo, it's common sense.

I can agree with much of what you say there except for it being common sense. It's not really. I've come across formulas where someone did some work on a calculator and determined that you need to have 1.75 or some factor in the formula to work. That's not common sense. That's trying hard to make the math work with the data collected. Trying to take something from one universe into another by numeric conversion. That isn't common sense.

Common sense tells us what runs and wins are on the baseball field. Those aren't runs or wins in a theoretical Sabermetrics universe, though, where the only run that matters is really some calculation of other numbers that have nothing to do with crossing the plate in actuality at all. That's against common sense.

Sabermetrics is also focused on finding "luck" in such cases where that term is even falsely applied IMO. We know what is lucky on a playing field in terms of common sense, but that isn't the Sabermetrics definition of luck in the least bit numerically.

Sabermetrics and common sense are on different sidelines. We've had common sense about the game for decades about evaluating players on the field, and Sabermetrics tries to give us a DIFFERENT perspective from that common sense, and show us something with numbers on paper that we can't see with our own eyes and common sense watching the game. Sometimes it can, and sometimes that is debatable.

[Heltonfan]

Originally Posted by hiaspire

I've come across formulas where someone did some work on a calculator and determined that you need to have 1.75 or some factor in the formula to work.

First, if you think anyone is using calculators for this stuff, you're sadly mistaken. Microsoft Excel is a wonderful thing.

Second, show me a concrete example of what you're talking about, and I'll gladly explain why it makes sense (if it does) or why it's bad sabermetrics (if it doesn't). It's important to keep in mind that sabermetrics, like any science, has its share of quacks, but that's not a meaningful indictment of the science itself.

[Newman]

The Denver Post pointed out that Helton is on a pace for 15 home runs this year, which would tie his career low which he set last year.

[RockieRooter]

And Mark Twain predicted that, what with the work the Army Corp of Engineers was doing shortening and straightening the Mississippi river, that by 1980 (?) the Mississippi river wouldn't exist any more.

[Newman]

What does Samuel Clemens have to do with baseball in Colorado. Roger Clemens yes, I could see the linkage.

I'm just saying that having Helton, a 15 home run threat as a cleanup hitter is part of the problem here. The statheads bow to the God of OPS and say I'm a dinosaur. You, Rooter, just don't like me. I get that.

Tommy Herr was an effective 3 or 4 spot hitter for the Cards for a year or two and he had Helton type power, according to my memory (not using a calculator here or Microsoft Excel).

I like fiddling with lineups. Where is the best place to put Helton? Cleanup? Who does Helton and his meaningless singles scare anymore?

[Heltonfan]

Tommy Herr had 28 HR in his entire career. Helton has 6 in less than half a season. Not comparable.

Helton is the best hitter in the lineup, and should be hitting second to get him more plate appearances.

Helton's singles aren't "meaningless."

The statheads bow to the God of OPS and say I'm a dinosaur.

OPS is utterly irrelevant (I think my "stathead" credentials are as solid as they come - have you ever seen me use OPS in an argument? Didn't think so). Try to approach this logically. If you didn't have all this "traditional" garbage kicking around in your head, how would you evaluate a hitter? By looking at the whole stat line and trying to properly weigh the different categories, right? That's all I'm doing.

[hiaspire]

Do we get to call your theories garbage too? Someday we may rise above calling opposing opinions garbage and others morons.