random off-topic thread

[Roxpert]

MLE's aren't wrong, as you wrote, Heltonfan. However, MLE's don't tell us WHY a pitcher (or hitter) is putting up those numbers. For example, we don't know if Morales was working on refining a certain pitch in AA this year, such as a curveball. Perhaps he was throwing 40% curveballs in some starts, and struggling with commanding it. Then, when called up to the majors, he decided to throw a high percentage of fastballs, which he may be better at commanding. I don't know if this is the case with him, but I'm trying to illustrate that prospect stats can be skewed by whatever "project" or weakness they are working on refining during the minor league season.

As you wrote, MLE's with scouting would tell us a lot more than MLE's alone.

[BigRapidsJackass]

Is Hurdle really a genius for bringing in Affeldt to face a lefty, when he has better stats vs. righties? And then Clint takes him out when a righty comes up! What a dinosaur Hurdle is. Read the metrics, man!!!

Actually, Hurdle really was a genius. Well maybe not a genius, but perfectly sound in his decision making.

Speier eats up right handers. He's had big trouble (both majors and minors) with lefties. And this makes perfect sense given his delivery.

So going to Affeldt to face Loney (an excellent young hitter who so far exhibits no platoon split) wasn't really about Affeldt being deadly against lefties. It was really about Speier being very poor against lefties.

This is the interesting thing about Hurdle. I haven't found much to complain about now that he's got an extended roster to work with. In fact, he's used his extended bullpen very nicely, correctly employing Speier as a ROOGY (right-handed one-out guy), and that decision has paid off very nicely.

Aspire will tell me that's because the situation has changed. And he's right. It's tough to carry a ROOGY specialist on an 11 or 12 man pitching staff all season long. But now that he has that luxury, he has made nice use of it.

[BigRapidsJackass]

For example, we don't know if Morales was working on refining a certain pitch in AA this year, such as a curveball. Perhaps he was throwing 40% curveballs in some starts, and struggling with commanding it.

I think that's right. In fact, I think Morales himself said that (or was it Jimenez?) In the big leagues they're not "working on" pitches anymore; they're just doing their best to get guys out. And for pitchers like Morales, it gives us a perfectly sound reason for being skeptical of the value of MLEs.

[Heltonfan]

I don't know if this is the case with him, but I'm trying to illustrate that prospect stats can be skewed by whatever "project" or weakness they are working on refining during the minor league season.

This is true. But, first, as you said, we don't know if this is the case with Morales, or with anyone else for that matter. We never know. Even if we have a direct quote from the player - even if that direct quote is uncommonly specific (i.e. "I was throwing 40% curveballs") - we still don't, and can't, know what effect that had on his minor league numbers. Particularly because such quotes are likely to come after the fact, when the player is actively searching for an explanation for his success. Which makes this whole thing, to borrow a phrase from Bill James, a bull**** dump. Like "team chemistry" or "makeup". We can ascribe tremendous significance to these things without any fear of ever being proven wrong, because there's simply no way to approach the problem statistically. But the flip side of that is that, because there's no way to approach the problem statistically, we can't demonstrate that these ideas are actually valid, so we should be reluctant to ascribe too much significance to them.

Also, if a large percentage of minor leaguers are indeed "working on" things, that will be reflected in the MLEs. So, at least to some extent, the MLEs are self-correcting, because they're based on actual data.

I guess what I'm getting at here is that, if we can systematically identify guys who beat their MLEs, then you might have something. If all we can do is look at things after the fact and say, "Oh, he must have been working on something down in the minors", then this line of thinking doesn't really do us any good. Jimenez and Morales beat their MLEs this year. Lincecum, Gallardo, Bailey and Hughes did not. Are we to assume that the latter four were not "working on things" in AAA? This whole concept seems pretty compelling when applied to one or two specific players, but when we apply it to the league as a whole, it's pretty hard to fathom how we could gain any extra predictive accuracy by looking at such things.

[hiaspire]

We try very hard here to apply a generalized set of statistical rules to everyone so we can run our numbers, but that's really not the way to make the best decisions in reality it seems to me. That's how things could be missed and important details fall between the cracks or treated with less importance than the raw numbers when that may not be the case at all.

Skip the rock across the water to get the surface level comparisons for numbers under those generalized assumptions, but then go diving deeper into each individual pool to get the real story and treat that with more meaning than the generalized numbers that lead you to look deeping into certain cases. That's what I'd think anyway. The other way seems to put more importance on the tools (even if with incomplete answers) than trying to get to the actual truths that include all meaningful factors whether numeric or not.

Francis has had a fantastic season, but came out on the wrong end a couple of key times to end this steak and before it started in Philly. He's had some good ones in between, though, too. Hopefully in future seasons he's on the winning end of some huge playoff clinching games for us.

If nothing else this year, at least all the no-hopers see that there IS hope even with this manager and even with these owners. They don't make plays on the field. The players are what matters, and it can be done on the field. Maybe for next year more focus will be on what is possible on the field instead of what is assumed to be impossible because of our circumstances.

Go Rockies! These two organizations don't like each other, and them celebrating on our field won't help with that. Maybe we take it out on them tomorrow and can get some help to get into a playoff for the playoffs.

[Xitdax8]

Originally Posted by hiaspire

Go Rockies! These two organizations don't like each other, and them celebrating on our field won't help with that. Maybe we take it out on them tomorrow and can get some help to get into a playoff for the playoffs.

There's no doubt about that. I have always disliked the Diamondbacks, because they certainly do have a history with the Rockies. After tonight, I think they are my most hated team in the majors beside the Yankees.

[Newman]

Bah. We don't have a rivalry. It's the bug and the windshield thing with us. We've been the bug for 10 years now.

In the postgame when Francis was asked if he was bugged by the DBacks celebrating on the field, he shrugged. Who cares about that crap anymore? These are all millionaire ballplayers in the 21st Century. Some of our guys may be playing for the DBacks next season. What does it matter?

I keep going back to one of Roxpert's posts where he said there is no predictive value from a good season to the next year. Just because we set a franchise record for wins this year DOES NOT mean we will build on it and be in the playoffs next season. Especially with this ownership.

I hate to be the dark cloud but after the euphoria of the 11 game win streak is over, where are we? Who will be gone next year? Most of the bullpen? Matsui? Atkins? And will the payroll, the talent level, be increased? Other teams will keep getting better too ya know.

[indianadrew]

one loss and newman is all doom and gloom. come on newman, take a load off. this team has played meaningfull baseball all season, and we still have a shot..

go rockies


GO COLTS

[BigRapidsJackass]

Newman, I take the opposite message from what happened.

I think the win streak made fans remember there's baseball in Denver, and I think it'll make the Monforts likely to keep all our core players. That means they'll be willing to hang onto Atkins/Hawpe as well as Holliday. They may even keep Fuentes.

Now if they keep all our key guys AND make one significant free agent signing I'll really be pleasantly surprised.

[BigRapidsJackass]

I guess what I'm getting at here is that, if we can systematically identify guys who beat their MLEs, then you might have something. If all we can do is look at things after the fact and say, "Oh, he must have been working on something down in the minors", then this line of thinking doesn't really do us any good.

HF, I know we've been down this road before, but ...

... remember, Bill James' original insight was that minor league stats are just as good as major league stats provided we know the correct multiplier.

As explained by tangotiger

http://www.tangotiger.net/hateMLEs.html

and

Tango on Baseball

there's a bunch of problems with that.

So I'm not saying MLEs are not useful; obviously they are.

I just think it is nonsense to put them on the same footing as real past MLB stats. I don't think anyone has ever shown, in a statistically rigorous study, that MLEs are "just as good as" MLB stats.

[Heltonfan]

I just think it is nonsense to put them on the same footing as real past MLB stats. I don't think anyone has ever shown, in a statistically rigorous study, that MLEs are "just as good as" MLB stats.

So what are you suggesting? That we weigh minor league playing time less than MLB playing time (say, every AAA inning is weighted at .8 MLB innings; every AA inning is weighted at .75; etc)? That might actually not be a bad idea...

[Newman]

Originally Posted by BigRapidsJackass

Newman, I take the opposite message from what happened.

I think the win streak made fans remember there's baseball in Denver, and I think it'll make the Monforts likely to keep all our core players. That means they'll be willing to hang onto Atkins/Hawpe as well as Holliday. They may even keep Fuentes.

Now if they keep all our key guys AND make one significant free agent signing I'll really be pleasantly surprised.

Shake yourself, Jackass. Wake up and smell the coffee, and drink some of it before you write. Don't write completely on whiskey and euphoria!

Remember that famous Bush quote: "Fool me once, shame on ...errr...well, don't get fooled again!" How can you trust Charlie Monfort to open up his checkbook just because we won 11 in a row, and might make the playoffs, and fans are filling Coors Field again? I doubt it.

I'm from Missouri on this one. Charlie will have to prove it to me, show me. I don't trust that owner. Period. He's got a track record ever since he fell off the horse with Hampton and Neagle. There's probably stats to prove what I'm saying, besides this FEELING I have deep in my gut.

This was always my DREAM from way back last century, in 1995, that we would continue to hold the core, and build, add to it, keep getting better. Well, it never happened. We never added Biggio, Piazza, who was that sullen Dodger pitcher with the heavy sinker that flirted with us, and so forth. We didn't add a key component every year, and then, after the Hampton disaster?, Monfort and McMorris decided to cut bait, got rid of that expensive <sarcasm> catcher Brent Mayne, the fire sale was on, and we've been crap for a decade or more.

Don't forget who owns us. Does a leopard change his spots? Will Bush change the course in Iraq? Will Roxpert and Aspire ever be bosom buddies? Is it game time yet???

[Newman]

Originally Posted by indianadrew

one loss and newman is all doom and gloom. come on newman, take a load off. this team has played meaningfull baseball all season, and we still have a shot..

go rockies


GO COLTS

GO BRONCOS!


Drew, I'm about winning. The 11 games in a row was a thrill. I loved it. I'll reflect on it later and smile. Still, if we don't make the playoffs, isn't that what we all want?????

I love the meaningful games in September.

Why hasn't it always been this way since the invention of the humidor?

Really, I expect us to win now. I give Tulo all the credit in the world for that, something not easy to do, turning around a team losing attitude. This kid is great. If I ever buy a Rockies jersey, as an adult male, it will be a #2 Tulo one. I love that kid. Maybe it's better that he doesn't win the rookie of the year award. That way we can afford him!!!! Hopefully Monfort will lock him up with an extension soon, like he did with Francis. Add to the core...

Let's win. Winning is fun. Losing isn't... [/color][/color]

[indianadrew]

Originally Posted by Newman

GO BRONCOS!


Drew, I'm about winning. The 11 games in a row was a thrill. I loved it. I'll reflect on it later and smile. Still, if we don't make the playoffs, isn't that what we all want?????

I love the meaningful games in September.

Why hasn't it always been this way since the invention of the humidor?

Really, I expect us to win now. I give Tulo all the credit in the world for that, something not easy to do, turning around a team losing attitude. This kid is great. If I ever buy a Rockies jersey, as an adult male, it will be a #2 Tulo one. I love that kid. Maybe it's better that he doesn't win the rookie of the year award. That way we can afford him!!!! Hopefully Monfort will lock him up with an extension soon, like he did with Francis. Add to the core...

Let's win. Winning is fun. Losing isn't... [/color][/color]

newman i am only making a playful jab. it is going to be a great day of sports today! GO ROCKIES

[indianadrew]

Bulls, not riders, under steroids cloud in bull riding - Yahoo! Sports

maybe barry was getting his stuff from them. barry kinda looks like a bull

BTW has anybody else noticed how many more guests there have been at our humble board?