random off-topic thread

[Newman]

True about Francis. I was swept up in Rockies fever. Someone mentioned that on the radio, maybe 18 wins for Jeff this season, our ace, and 18 wins is a lot these days. Thank God for the Humidor (or whoever it was who invented it for the Rox. That technician should have a statue outside of Coors Field. His name should be KNOWN.).

OK. Forgot about our award winning defense. Best in the league. That can't be emphasized enough. Tulo anchors the infield. Helton is gold glove again at 1B. But why are we elsewise so special? Kaz at 2B? Taveras, when he plays, in CF? I've seen Hawpe and Holliday look shakey on the corners. And Atkins is no Brooks Robinson at 3B.

I guess this is why you go to stats. It takes perception and feeling out of it. I keep hearing that we're the best defensive team. I'm assuming, if this is coming from the mainstream media which doesn't even talk about OPS, that it means we've created the fewest errors. Doesn't mean we have the best range I assume or anything else besides errors. Right?

A good baseball team in a formerly weak division. Best starting 8 in the division. Pitchers who overachieved. A manager who didn't cause more harm than good? Is that the best way to attribute Hurdle's contribution this year? I'm still with Pert on that one. I don't like Hurdle. But here we are. 10 wins in a row!

Now THAT is verifiable success unlike the phonied up accounting success in al Anbar province where they no longer count car bomb victims or if you're shot in the back of the head, and other accounting tricks, to prove that Petraeus' surge has worked and insurgent violence has waned.

[Roxpert]

Originally Posted by Heltonfan

[color=black]- The bullpen, even aside from Corpas, has been outstanding. Hawkins has been lights-out since April. Fuentes is having a typical Fuentes year. Julio has been solid. Herges has been a gift from above. And although we like to beat up on Jeremy Affeldt here, he's got a 3.63 ERA. Nothing wrong with that.
- The defense. Best defense in the league. Worth about three wins above average.
- Ryan Spilborghs.

Heltonfan, a couple comments about your reasons. I agree that the bullpen has overachieved (esp. Hawkins/Herges/Julio), but to me the biggest difference this year is Tulo versus Barmes. How many incremental wins has Tulo been worth this year compared to Barmes' truly awful year last year? We were a 76-win team in 2006 that Pythagorus says should have been .500. With the deletion of Barmes and addition of Tulo, that ".500 team on paper" suddenly became a winning team. I think we all underrated how quickly Tulowitzki would become an impact player. I know I did.

Regarding defense, Newman brings up a good point. We are #1 (and perhaps record-breaking) in terms of fielding percentage, but that's only one metric. How is our defense in terms of overall UZR or range factor? Are we record breaking in that department too?

Speaking of defense, have you noticed that fielding percentages in general have been inflating in baseball over the last several years? It seems that either official scorers are not handing out as many errors on non-routine plays, or perhaps the new ballparks are better lit with better manicured infield grass, cutting down on errors. If you look at the ratio of runs-per-game to ERA, you'll see it has never been lower in MLB history than in recent years. R/G used to be well over 10% higher than ERA, and now it's about 6%. This is another way of saying that UNEARNED runs are way down in baseball, which also partially accounts for higer ERAs (as the marginal plays are now resulting in earned runs instead of unearned runs). Thus, if the Rox set an MLB record in fielding percentage, they will be doing so in a context of league-wide inflation in fielding percentage. After all, the next best fielding percentages were set in 2005 and 2003, if I recall correctly. It has never been easier to "catch a baseball" than in the last few years.

[Heltonfan]

Tulo anchors the infield. Helton is gold glove again at 1B. But why are we elsewise so special?

Kaz, Holliday (he may look shaky, but he's made a ton of plays this year), and Jamey Carroll. Carroll is the one who absolutely no one talks about, but he's managed to prevent 8 runs above average in his limited playing time (and it's no fluke; he was similarly outstanding last year).

I'm assuming, if this is coming from the mainstream media which doesn't even talk about OPS, that it means we've created the fewest errors. Doesn't mean we have the best range I assume or anything else besides errors. Right?

Coming from the mainstream media, yes. Coming from me, it means precisely what "best defense in the league" should mean: our defense has prevented more runs than any other defense in the NL.

Although, to answer Roxpert's follow-up question, our defense is far from historic. We're at 32 runs above average; the '06 Tigers were 60 runs above average (the best figure of any team in the past four years; I don't have data prior to 2004).

Speaking of defense, have you noticed that fielding percentages in general have been inflating in baseball over the last several years?

I hadn't noticed that. Interesting. Thanks for bringing it up.

How many incremental wins has Tulo been worth this year compared to Barmes' truly awful year last year?

I've got Tulo at 4.19 WAR; Barmes last year was -1.18. But that doesn't consider clutch performance; FanGraphs says that Tulo has contributed 1.43 "clutchness" wins, compared to Barmes' .53 last year (Tulo's clutch performance has no predictive value, of course, but it sure as heck has been a big part of our success this year). Add it all up, and the difference between Tulo '07 and Barmes '06 is 6.27 wins. Huge.

[Roxpert]

So, Tulo's performance has added 6 wins compared to Barmes' woeful 2006 performance. Add 6 wins to a .500 team on paper, and there we have it - an 87-win team just from the improvement at shortstop. I'm sure there are (many) other positive and (a few) negative factors that impact our final win total this season compared to last season, but I can't imagine any other single factor larger than the upgrade in performance we got from Tulowitzki. That, alone, should make him the "team MVP".

[Newman]

So Holliday will be the LEAGUE MVP and Tulo will be the team MVP?

We can't even get Tulo to ROY.

I'm sure we could find 7 wins from Matt's this year compared to Matt's last year, couldn't we HF? Can't you pull out some stats that would show that Holliday is more important than Tulo, at least on paper. Who knows what goes on in the clubhouse? Intangibles. Tulo does wear #2 afterall. And that play last night, deep in the hole at SS, certainly was "Jeterian".

Hard to argue with Pert's logic, that Tulo was a tremendous upgrade over post deer meat accident Barmes. Matt is not much of an improvement over Matt in LF I suppose.

[Heltonfan]

I can't imagine any other single factor larger than the upgrade in performance we got from Tulowitzki. That, alone, should make him the "team MVP".

Why should what happened last year have any effect on who the MVP is this year? Barmes having had a fluky horrendous year doesn't make Tulo any more valuable. MVP isn't the guy who represents the biggest upgrade over the previous year, it's the guy who makes the biggest contribution this year. And that's Holliday.

Anyway, if you want to know how valuable Tulo has been compared to our alternatives at SS (which I think is the idea behind your Barmes comparison), the relevant measure isn't Tulo '07 vs. Barmes '06. It's Tulo '07 vs. Barmes '07. And for Holliday, it's Holliday '07 vs. Baker/Smith/Sullivan '07. Or, alternatively, you could look at actual stats for Holliday/Tulo compared to projections for their backups. So the argument for Tulo isn't really helped by this line of thinking.

[BigRapidsJackass]

Roxpert, I agree with you about changes in scoring. Home town scorers seem more hesitant than ever to score an error on the home team.

In one of the Dodger games I was at last week, we were all joking about the "no errors" part of the Rockies line score. Quintanilla had muffed a pop up, and Tulo had fanned on one grounder (a tough play; he didn't get a glove on it so it's often called a hit) and had another bounce off the heel of his glove. So I counted 3 errors, or at a minimum 2. The scorer counted "zero."

Don't get me wrong, the Rockies defense is still excellent. But I'm not sold on the "fewest errors in history" thing because I just see no consistency in scoring from place-to-place and even from year-to-year.

[Roxpert]

I guess I could re-phrase my comment and say that Tulo is our "most important player" this season since he upgraded our production from last year at that position so much. I hear 'ya about what happened last year having no impact on a player's worth this year, but if not for the emergence of Tulowitzki this season, we'd have been a much worse team even if the "fluky horrendous year" Barmes had last year wasn't repeated.

Tulo was an extremely valuable improvement for us this year, and in that sense I concluded that he is the "team MVP", though I agree that Holliday has outproduced him, obviously. Maybe I should tag him "MVPPI" (Most Valuable Position Player Improvement).

[HoyaRoxFan]

But I've heard that Tulo, for instance, leads the league in POs, DPs, attempts, and a number of other defensive stats beyond just errors and fielding% that I don't know entirely what they mean. What do the metrics say for the team as a whole historically?

[John Cocktoston]

Ryan Braun had another HR tonight, his 34th, which will no doubt buoy his candidacy further with the voters. They love them some power!

Oh...and he also committed 3 more errors (that's 26) and the Brewers lost.

[John Cocktoston]

For as good as Affeldt has been this year, and he has been better than many give him credit for, can we please stop pretending that it's appropriate to go get him in a left-on-left situation? The guy has a ****ing reverse split, for Christ's sake!

[Heltonfan]

Braun is -18 runs defensively, despite playing only 2/3 of a season. He might be the worst fielder in all of baseball. Tulo vs. Braun shouldn't even be a debate.

But I've heard that Tulo, for instance, leads the league in POs, DPs, attempts, and a number of other defensive stats beyond just errors and fielding% that I don't know entirely what they mean. What do the metrics say for the team as a whole historically?

See my post from yesterday - we're 32 runs above average, which while league-leading, isn't anything close to historic.

It's also important to keep in mind that we have a pitching staff that doesn't strike anybody out. We're 130 strikeouts below the NL average; that alone inflates our fielders' raw numbers considerably (because the outs have to be recorded somehow, and since they're not coming by way of the K...). This is why raw defensive stats like putouts, double plays, assists, range factor, etc. are useless at best, misleading at worst. Zone ratings are the only way to go; our fielders have to be evaluated in the context of how many chances they've actually had.

[Newman]

I heard an interesting theory on the postal workroom floor. The reason Monfort isn't trumpeting Tulo for ROY and Holliday for MVP is because, what else, it would cost him MONEY down the road! What else?!

Tulo v. Braun. So what that Braun has a few more meaningless homers and RBI, a team stat, that we all know is statistically irrelevant (wink). Big deal. Tulo plays SS. All us purists know you don't win unless you are strong up the middle defensively. Last night's game alone showed that. How many of those plays would Braun have made? Even if he could get to those balls he would have Steve Saxed them into the 1B stands, which is his usual MO from 3B.

In my typical knee jerk fashion, from watching highlights on ESPN Baseball Tonight, I thought Braun would be a shoe in for ROY. But why? Tulo has the most homers of any rookie shortstop in history, next to Nomar. Plus he is a great fielder with a great arm (although he did OLE a ball last night, proving he is human).

Where is the Rockies marketing department? Tulo for rookie of the year!

I am wondering about Holliday's oblique. He seems to be swinging as hard as the old Helton at the moment. The new energized Helton is getting it done, earning his money, acting like a cleanup hitter. What a team!

Franklin Morales! What was that scoreless innings record he passed last night? Remember when we were debating whether to bring him up or go out and sign some retread like David Wells or Joe Kennedy.

As usual I agree with Cocktoston. Is Hurdle really a genius for bringing in Affeldt to face a lefty, when he has better stats vs. righties? And then Clint takes him out when a righty comes up! What a dinosaur Hurdle is. Read the metrics, man!!! Get into the 21st Century, Clint, and know your DIPS, WAR, BAPB, LSMFT, etc.

[HoyaRoxFan]

I give a polite, golf-clap standing ovation to that post. Well done, Newman. Good show.

[Heltonfan]

BigRapidsJackass made an interesting comment the other day in the Rox/Pads series thread... I didn't have time to respond to it before, but it's worth addressing, so I'll do it here in the off-topic thread (which seems to have turned into a baseball thread after all... that says something about what this team is doing right now):

For one, I am an extreme skeptic when it comes to minor league stats ("Minor League Equivalents"). And so no, there's nothing "moronic" about saying that Franklin Morales "looked" ready to contribute on the big league level even though his AA stats gave little reason for optimism.

We've gone over the MLE issue before, I know, but this is interesting, because I don't disagree - not even a little bit - with the second sentence you wrote. And the reason I don't disagree is simply that I think stats+scouting ought to yield more accurate projections than stats alone do.

But I don't think it's an argument against MLEs. Because what about MLEs, specifically, are you objecting to? The MLE is simply an estimate of the results the player would have had if his performance had come against big league competition... and I don't think you're questioning the validity of that. I think you agree that if Morales had continued to pitch the same way that he did in Tulsa after his callup to the majors, he'd be getting hammered. And I think you agree that nobody has come up with any remotely convincing evidence that MLEs have significantly less predictive value than big league stats do.

In other words, the problem with MLEs isn't that the equivalencies are flawed. The problem is that not all players follow the standard development curve. But this problem isn't unique to MLEs; it's a problem with stats in general. Morales is a nice illustration, sure. But so is Gil Meche. So is Kaz Matsui. So is Matt Herges (who, by the way, is also a beautiful illustration of the power of MLEs; check out his numbers at Colorado Springs this year). The MLEs aren't wrong; they're just limited in the same way that all stats are.

And it's worth pointing out here that the Rockies didn't envision Morales having this kind of success either. He got the call only when there were no other alternatives. If they had anticipated anything close to even league-average pitching out of him, they wouldn't have hesitated to bring him up earlier.