random off-topic thread

[indianadrew]

castrated in bar scuffle

ouch

[Newman]

Originally Posted by Heltonfan

[color=black] The Helton-bashing here has really reached nonsensical levels.

The problem, Dave, is that there are a lot of old timers on this site who still look at old fashioned stats like HR and RBI. We see Helton batting in the cleanup spot with only 14 homers and 79 RBI.

You can come up with all the flowery writing you want and all the alphabet new fangled stats from OPS to LSMFT and it still is hard to fathom the sales job you continue to promote for your namesake, Todd Helton.

So what if he gets meaningless walks and meaningless singles. He's the cleanup hitter. He's supposed to be driving in runs and slamming homers. Holliday just went yard again for the 33rd time, 126 RBI. His stats dwarf Todd's, who I say once again should be a lead off hitter next year, like Wade Boggs was. Helton is good at getting walks and slapping singles to left.

I'm just saying there is good reason for the Helton bashing on this site. It's hard to defend his old fashioned stats, 14 homers and a measley 79 RBI. Of course some people defend our constant finishing in 4th place, and put lipstick on that pig, and call for a celebration.

[Newman]

Never mind.

[Heltonfan]

So what if he gets meaningless walks and meaningless singles.

Why are they meaningless? If you can answer that question with something substantive, rather than the simple "he's the cleanup hitter and that's not what his performance is supposed to look like", then you might have a real argument.

[Newman]

Before you were born, HF, I remember there was a debate regarding who was the better player, George Brett or Wade Boggs. This was before numbers were invented; so it was all conducted in words and observations.

Brett sacrificed his then lofty batting average for the sake of power, trying to hit the double or homer, to drive in the runner from first. Boggs never did that. Wade was a 6'2" powerful man, before steroids, who put on displays during BP, but settle for slapping the ball to left and leading off during most of his career rather than batting 3rd and driving the ball.

The feeling I remember is that he was more interested in his selfish personal stats than in helping his team win. I loved Brett and thought he was a better player, even though later he became a Republican and close personal friend of Rush Limbaugh in Kansas.

That's the argument. I hope it's substantive enough for you.

Helton came thru last night, like a true 4 hole hitter, swinging hard, and delivering. He chose the right time to deliver his 15th HOME RUN of the year, a walk off. What did the graphic say? Only his first walk off homer since 2003? Not sure what that stat means.

I think there are such things as "meaningless singles". Sometimes you need your team leaders like Helton or Holliday to expand their strike zone and drive in the runner from first base to try to win the game. I call that leadership.

I know others may take the other side. The great hitting God Ted Williams was famous for not swinging at a pitch that was even a micron outside the zone. He was disciplined. He also has no World Series rings.

[John Cocktoston]

Originally Posted by Newman

That's the argument. I hope it's substantive enough for you.

If by "substantive" you mean "anecdotal" then yes, that works well.

[Heltonfan]

The feeling I remember is that he was more interested in his selfish personal stats than in helping his team win.

That's not a coherent concept. The whole reason that we value the individual stats that we do is because we believe them to be important to team success. The idea that individual success and team success are at odds with one another in baseball is patently absurd. Whether Boggs's motivation was selfish or not is irrelevant; his results are what they are.

Anyway, as far as I can tell, your argument consists of:
1) Brett sacrificed OBP for power.
2) Boggs didn't.
3) You liked Brett better.
4) Ergo, power is more important than OBP.
I hope you can understand why I don't find that even remotely compelling.

[rockieprogress]

HF, I ripped JT Snow numerous times here for hitting the softest .300 of any 1B.

By soft, if your team is up by 5 runs in the 5th inning, and you've gone 0-fer up to that point, but then, when the pressure is off you deliver 2 hits, those hits are considered soft IMO. They weren't hit when the team needed them most, so they are irrelevent to the outcome of the game.

Tulo, so far this year, is a perfect example of what I'm refering to. He gets up to the plate, and when his team needs him most he, more often than not, has come through for them. He thrives on pressure situations. Thats as opposite of a soft hitter as I can think up on the fly.

I think an example of what newman is talking about follows this scenario.
Down by a run, man on 1B, most players try to take the ball to the right side to move the runner from 1B to 3B. Boggs would still try to play to HIS strength, and try to punch the ball to LF for a single. The runner doesn't get to advance to 3B because the ball is in front of him, so a slug like Fisk might not be able to score on a single by the next batter.

[indianadrew]

"By soft, if your team is up by 5 runs in the 5th inning, and you've gone 0-fer up to that point, but then, when the pressure is off you deliver 2 hits, those hits are considered soft IMO. They weren't hit when the team needed them most, so they are irrelevent to the outcome of the game"

i have heard alot of people call arod soft too. looks like he's not soft though. my god.. 2HRs in one inning, the day of an MRI none the less.

Attachment 42

[Heltonfan]

By soft, if your team is up by 5 runs in the 5th inning, and you've gone 0-fer up to that point, but then, when the pressure is off you deliver 2 hits, those hits are considered soft IMO. They weren't hit when the team needed them most, so they are irrelevent to the outcome of the game.

This is another way of saying that you thought Snow wasn't "clutch". Which may or may not be true. But as it relates to Helton, it's clearly false. According to FanGraphs, Helton has contributed 4.24 WPA (Win Probability Added) this year; with neutral situational performance, he'd be at 3.38. So he's actually contributed almost one win above average in clutch performance alone.

[BigRapidsJackass]

David Ortiz, Mr. Clutch, the Clutchiest of All.

Except for this year.

Maybe he wasn't really any more "clutch" than anyone else all along?

[BigRapidsJackass]

Very nice article about Mike Coolbaugh, the Tulsa 1B coach who was killed by a line drive in a freak accident.

SI.com - Writers - The Bonus: People have struggled to grasp how and why Mike Coolbaugh died - Tuesday September 18, 2007 4:30PM

[Newman]

Clutch. Thanks for having my back you other guys. That is really what I was searching for. I think RP stated it well, above. Brett was clutch. Boggs wasn't. Big Papi is. Helton?

I have never heard of FanGraphs or WPA. Are they useful tools? Maybe. Maybe not.

I know myself, from 30 years of playing softball, that I was a much better hitter, leading off, with the bases empty than I was in clutch situations. I was more relaxed and nobody was on 3B where I usually liked to surgically slam the ball.

Anecdotal? You bet. And it matters. Why? Because people are not robots, Cocktoston. They are full of emotion and feelings. Some deal with pressure better than others.

Again I'm a fan of the game. I fell in love with the game as a child. I didn't fall in love with mathematical equations or formulas that were put together by man, and may be flawed in and of themselves. What are "neutral situational performances?" What is "Win Probability Added"? Who died and made those stats god?

It's smart to use stats. Not saying that it isn't. If someone is 0-17 against Josh Fogg and his bench warmer replacement is 8 for 11 against Fogg, well, of course you may consider that in making out the lineup.

The criticism of Helton stands. He doesn't have many homers this year or RBI in a hitter friendly park. Why is that exactly? Is there a stat that explains it? Is there a man made computer game that shows how many more runs we would have scored had Atkins batted cleanup all year and Helton led off? And again, how realistic is that? How true?

Would Helton pout if not batting 3,4, or 5? Is there a computer printout that would answer that question? Or would he try that much harder to prove to the world that he is still a cleanup hitter. Or by trying harder, is he squeezing the bat harder, and failing more? There are a lot of factors in baseball...and life...

[indianadrew]

hey newman,

doesn't it seem like stats can be calculated in order to get the desired result.

why do you think that heltons numbers have dropped?

[Heltonfan]

Doesn't it seem like stats can be calculated in order to get the desired result.

The problem with this notion, Drew, is that my methods are exactly the same for every player. And they've been the same for many years.