So how bad is it ... really?

BigRapidsJackass · 05-15-2008, 02:09 PM

1. Pretty bad. Lose tonight and we're 11 games out by the middle of May. We're also on a pace for a 60-win season.

2. Not quite as bad as we look. The BP "adjusted standings" thing should be taken with a boulder of salt, but here it is:

Postseason Odds

On their "third-order wins" (taking into account pythagorean records, plus strength of schedule, plus strength of opposing pitchers, and maybe some other stuff that I really don't understand), we stand right at about .500. If this is to be believed, the standings cheat us out of 4.8 victories vs. our true level of performance.

3. What explains it? Mostly pathetic hitting. So there's cause for optimism, since the Rox certainly won't end the season at or near the bottom of the NL in HRs. They also won't end the season 29th in hitting with RISP. This is mostly attributable to ... good opposition pitching and lots of bad luck.

4. Who has been a true disappointment, and who is likely to get it turned around?

A. Disappointment and likely will never turn it around: Nix. Bad, but there was a chance he's be o.k. Baker: I give up; so should you. Torrealba: strikes me as inferior defensively to Iannetta right now, and that doesn't leave him with any value.

B. Lucky at the start and will get worse: Iannetta. But I still think he'll be a solid-to-better-than-average starter. He just won't keep this up. Cook. He'll be 'ol reliable Aaron Cook, but he won't win 24 games. Kip Wells. Herges. Barmes (but I do think he's reestablished some trade value once Tulo's back -- he is very good defensively at SS).

C. Will turn it around: Corpas. Hawpe. Helton. Francis. Taveras. Holliday. We pretty much know what to expect from them, and their numbers will look familiar come September. Tulo, too. He may not reach '07's heights, but most rational observers never expected that. He'll be fine.

D. What you see is what you get: Atkins. Podsednik. Spilborghs (but expect, finally, more playing time). Buchholz. Fuentes. Jimenez (for this season). Morales (no real improvement, at least for now). Grilli. De la Rosa (but he'll be better in the pen). Quintanilla.

So things will get better. Real hope for pulling back into contention would require a true breakout from more than one of Reynolds/Jimenez/Morales/Hirsh/Stewart (allowing Atkins to be moved). They are all capable of it, but individually each one is something of a longshot. Or a very significant trade. The primary impact would be, of course, where we're worst: 2B. But I don't see a lot of top-third second basemen on the trading block. Which leaves us with ideas like Ronny Cedeno, or maybe with a rebuilding project with talent like Josh Barfield (currently struggling even at AAA, but I'd say it's better to let a guy like him play and try to turn it around than playing a Quintanilla type full time at 2B; those Q types will always be readily available for little money.)

So it's bleak, and moving quickly toward almost hopeless as far as playoff chances go. Things could all fall in line like last year, but we'd need a collapse similar to that of the Mets last year to open up the wildcard chances. The D'backs look too deep to seriously falter this year.

In another month it'll be serious stock-taking time for O'Dowd and friends. Fuentes/Atkins/Hawpe (and certainly Vizcaino if he ever makes it back) should be on the block unless the Rox really make a move.

TheIncredibleRox · 05-15-2008, 03:56 PM

Two George Frazier bromides attempting to explain our woes that I'm not sure I can stand to hear one more time: "clutch hitting" (he has a few spinoffs in this avenue, and they all stink).

But the worst is with Francis "He's just not making his pitches." A). I want to respond with some combination of "Duh" and "WTF does that really mean?" B.) That explanation works for about 2 starts, Frazier, at which point you have to come up with some other reason for a former frontline starter getting raked mercilessly.

BRJ, for your 'will turn it around' list, I have to add a couple points. A.) As I've been saying practically all year, I'm convinced Francis is injured. (I also have strong suspicions with Morales, but thats another story). He's trying to do too much with his lower half, coming open a little too early, and has slightly lowered his arm angle, which all point to the shoulder from my experience. His FB is 83-87 instead of 87-91, and he knows it... as such, he's doing his damndest not to use it (way more offspeed pitches than we're used to seeing). He's even having trouble spotting it.

B.) I don't believe Corpas is hurt, but there is a mechanical issue. Bottom line, than sinker ain't sinkin', and there can be several reasons for that. One we've seen a good example of firsthand; Jose Jimenez. He started to become overly rotational with his torso, resulting in a sinker with more lateral movement but absent real vertical break.

This is example #49s of why young pitchers are so difficult; a new slider grip, a mechanical tweak that improves/destroys action on a key pitch, showing up to Spring Training +/- 2 MPH of velocity, and 250 other things can dramatically change someones value almost literally overnight. Here's hoping Manny straightens it out.

BigRapidsJackass · 05-15-2008, 05:38 PM

As for Francis:

Jeff Francis Stats and Graphs - Colorado Rockies | FanGraphs

Here's what sticks out:

Average FB velocity 86. Down 0.9 from last year, but exactly the same as it was in 2006. IR, I defer to your knowledge of pitching, and maybe he's changed his mechanics in order to sustain velocity because he's hurting. But the raw numbers alone don't give cause for concern.

He's throwing exactly the same percentage of FBs as he always has. He's substituting a few more changeups for curves this year, but that's on the order of 2-4 pitches per start. So nothing much to focus on there.

Most importantly: FIP = 5.39. Up about .80 from his career average, but up 1.20 from last year. Ks = down about 1/9 IP, BB similarly up about 1/9 IP. And the biggies: HR/9 up to 1.71 from last year's 1.04 (and .81 the year before); HR/FB up to 15% from 10% last year. And stranded 75% of runners last year vs. 68% this year.

My best purely stat-line guess: small sample, things will self-correct, he'll be fine. I still think in retrospect last year might've been a career year, but I don't see any real cause for concern ... yet.

As for Corpas:

Manny Corpas Stats and Graphs - Colorado Rockies | FanGraphs

FB velocity down about 1.5 mph from last year, but not much out of line with his career averages. Pitch selection exactly the same. GB % exactly the same. 3 HRs allowed, with the same inflated 15% HR/FB rate as Francis. K rate down a lot: 4.35 vs. 6.69. BB rate even worse: 5.66 vs. 2.31.

So I do think the sinker is still sinkin', and I don't think he's hurt. I do think he's a bit shell-shocked right now and as a result he's afraid to come right after hitters the way we're used to seeing. Most of all, I think he needs work and lots of it, and I wouldn't mind a quick trip back to AAA (or even Tulsa) to get that work in. Hurdle seems afraid to use him in game situations right now, and I think he's unlikely to get past this if he's not out on the mound.

EDIT: Another biggie for Corpas: stranded a whopping (and unsustainable) 85% of baserunners last year; only 64% this year. And most of all: he's got all of 20 IP this year, the equivalent of about 3 starts.

HoyaRoxFan · 05-15-2008, 07:21 PM

BRJ, could you clarify exactly what you have in mind when you say Taveras will be among those who "turn it around" since "we know what to expect from them?"

I'm kind of losing faith in him being anything but a streaky hitter with speed... otherwise known as overrated and/or valuable trade bait.

BigRapidsJackass · 05-16-2008, 12:02 AM

Willy will "turn it around" to the extent that he'll probably hit around his career average. Not much of a "turnaround" I guess, and I'd still rather see a commitment to let Spilborghs go for an extended time in CF.

TheIncredibleRox · 05-16-2008, 08:59 PM

Quote:

Average FB velocity 86. Down 0.9 from last year, but exactly the same as it was in 2006. IR, I defer to your knowledge of pitching, and maybe he's changed his mechanics in order to sustain velocity because he's hurting. But the raw numbers alone don't give cause for concern.

Wow. I dunno about that. A couple possibilities that may explain the discrepancy; A.) Where are they getting their data? A few weeks ago I started working with PitchFX data for the first time. I was fascinated by the possibilities, and began sinking my teeth into the enormous pontentiality before me. Until I came to the unfortunate conclusion that PitchFX data is, sadly, largely useless. B.) Maybe their source data (PitchFX or whatever) is different from the guns displaying on FSRM, because in no other season have Jeff Francis fastballs read at 83, and especially not ~a dozen times a game. C.) No matter where the data is from, it is not indexed there. As in, his FB is displaying down .9 MPH from last year, but from everything I've been lead to believe, I'd strongly guess a pitcher's August/Semptember's velocity is lower than his April/May's. So, if you indexed this and projected it forth along a standard regression, this might equal a net of 2-4 MPH or something. Just a possibility.

Btw, PitchFX quite often errs on the PitchID as well, so again, if Fangraphs is using PitchFX data, grain of salt there....

And regardless, yes; the mechanics are off.

But thanks for showing me that page; I thought I had given Fangraphs a look before, but I must have missed a lot of cool data they have displayed there. I plan to browse more. Thanks.

BigRapidsJackass · 05-16-2008, 09:23 PM

From the Fangraphs homepage:

Quote:

All major league baseball data including pitch type, velocity, and play-by-play data provided by Baseball Info Solutions

.

I'm not saying the data are error-free, or 100% reliable, but I think this is pretty much as good as it gets today.

TheIncredibleRox · 05-16-2008, 11:55 PM

If BIS gets it's type/velocity data from anywhere other than PitchFX, it's going to be less accurate, not more. It's going to be a single radar gun and either a subjective guess based on viewing or a subjective guess based off measured characteristics (namely velocity).

indianadrew · 05-17-2008, 10:50 PM

this site is nothing near what it used to be. ROXPERT!!! come on back. i miss reading your posts, as i disagreed with a few. has everybody gone to another site. newman, are you out there? whats the deal. this site used to hop.

BigRapidsJackass · 05-18-2008, 07:39 PM

Francis: officially o.k.

GerryInCS · 05-19-2008, 02:10 AM

Yeah, it only took nine starts for him to get his 1st win. Yeah, he's OK ..... not

TheIncredibleRox · 05-19-2008, 12:22 PM

I was in bad seats yesterday and too distracted with company to really give Jeff a good look.

But I don't regard allowing 2 runs in 6 innings as some remarkable verdict against a lineup where Craig Monroe is the 3-hole hitter, and you're also 'battling' Adam Everett, Kevin Slowey, Howie Clark, Mike Redmond, and the very sexy, skilled (to this point) out-machine known as Delmon Young.

BigRapidsJackass · 05-20-2008, 12:00 AM

Granted that was a pretty crappy Twins lineup yesterday.

I was in a very good seat, and Francis looked very sharp. 2-run HR to Morneau is nothing to be ashamed about, but other than that nobody seriously hurt him. And he was able to get the K when he needed it. Velocity was fine, off-speed stuff looked good, most of all his fastball command was back.

Not saying it was like what Jon Lester did tonight, but it was a very solid performance ... and he certainly looked to be cruising, not hurting.

Don't forget, Francis is a control pitcher and he's reeled off 8 or so mediocre to crappy starts in a row before, so this doesn't strike me as anything new.

Newman · 05-25-2008, 10:09 AM

Drew, you're lucky you have another team to root for. Go Tribe.

Quit wondering about Roxpert. Isn't the better question what does Cocktoston think? Where is he anyway?

Makes ME wonder what was last year all about? What kind of miracle was that?

Maybe Francis needs to flick his own poppy seeds off his own bagel? Personal responsibilty?

If we had drafted Longoria instead of Reynolds, could Evan play SS?

GerryInCS · 05-26-2008, 02:32 AM

It keeps getting worse. It's bad enough that we have Tulo, Hawpe and barmes on the DL, now we have to add Holliday to the growing casualty list. Who's next? Cook? Francis (this might actually be a godd thing given the way he's pitching)? Fuentes? Torrealba (Another good thing as it means more Iannetta)?

05-15-2008, 02:09 PM	#1 (permalink)
BigRapidsJackass Veteran Member Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 1,069	So how bad is it ... really? 1. Pretty bad. Lose tonight and we're 11 games out by the middle of May. We're also on a pace for a 60-win season. 2. Not quite as bad as we look. The BP "adjusted standings" thing should be taken with a boulder of salt, but here it is: Postseason Odds On their "third-order wins" (taking into account pythagorean records, plus strength of schedule, plus strength of opposing pitchers, and maybe some other stuff that I really don't understand), we stand right at about .500. If this is to be believed, the standings cheat us out of 4.8 victories vs. our true level of performance. 3. What explains it? Mostly pathetic hitting. So there's cause for optimism, since the Rox certainly won't end the season at or near the bottom of the NL in HRs. They also won't end the season 29th in hitting with RISP. This is mostly attributable to ... good opposition pitching and lots of bad luck. 4. Who has been a true disappointment, and who is likely to get it turned around? A. Disappointment and likely will never turn it around: Nix. Bad, but there was a chance he's be o.k. Baker: I give up; so should you. Torrealba: strikes me as inferior defensively to Iannetta right now, and that doesn't leave him with any value. B. Lucky at the start and will get worse: Iannetta. But I still think he'll be a solid-to-better-than-average starter. He just won't keep this up. Cook. He'll be 'ol reliable Aaron Cook, but he won't win 24 games. Kip Wells. Herges. Barmes (but I do think he's reestablished some trade value once Tulo's back -- he is very good defensively at SS). C. Will turn it around: Corpas. Hawpe. Helton. Francis. Taveras. Holliday. We pretty much know what to expect from them, and their numbers will look familiar come September. Tulo, too. He may not reach '07's heights, but most rational observers never expected that. He'll be fine. D. What you see is what you get: Atkins. Podsednik. Spilborghs (but expect, finally, more playing time). Buchholz. Fuentes. Jimenez (for this season). Morales (no real improvement, at least for now). Grilli. De la Rosa (but he'll be better in the pen). Quintanilla. So things will get better. Real hope for pulling back into contention would require a true breakout from more than one of Reynolds/Jimenez/Morales/Hirsh/Stewart (allowing Atkins to be moved). They are all capable of it, but individually each one is something of a longshot. Or a very significant trade. The primary impact would be, of course, where we're worst: 2B. But I don't see a lot of top-third second basemen on the trading block. Which leaves us with ideas like Ronny Cedeno, or maybe with a rebuilding project with talent like Josh Barfield (currently struggling even at AAA, but I'd say it's better to let a guy like him play and try to turn it around than playing a Quintanilla type full time at 2B; those Q types will always be readily available for little money.) So it's bleak, and moving quickly toward almost hopeless as far as playoff chances go. Things could all fall in line like last year, but we'd need a collapse similar to that of the Mets last year to open up the wildcard chances. The D'backs look too deep to seriously falter this year. In another month it'll be serious stock-taking time for O'Dowd and friends. Fuentes/Atkins/Hawpe (and certainly Vizcaino if he ever makes it back) should be on the block unless the Rox really make a move. Last edited by BigRapidsJackass; 05-15-2008 at 02:13 PM.

05-15-2008, 05:38 PM	#3 (permalink)
BigRapidsJackass Veteran Member Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 1,069	As for Francis: Jeff Francis Stats and Graphs - Colorado Rockies \| FanGraphs Here's what sticks out: Average FB velocity 86. Down 0.9 from last year, but exactly the same as it was in 2006. IR, I defer to your knowledge of pitching, and maybe he's changed his mechanics in order to sustain velocity because he's hurting. But the raw numbers alone don't give cause for concern. He's throwing exactly the same percentage of FBs as he always has. He's substituting a few more changeups for curves this year, but that's on the order of 2-4 pitches per start. So nothing much to focus on there. Most importantly: FIP = 5.39. Up about .80 from his career average, but up 1.20 from last year. Ks = down about 1/9 IP, BB similarly up about 1/9 IP. And the biggies: HR/9 up to 1.71 from last year's 1.04 (and .81 the year before); HR/FB up to 15% from 10% last year. And stranded 75% of runners last year vs. 68% this year. My best purely stat-line guess: small sample, things will self-correct, he'll be fine. I still think in retrospect last year might've been a career year, but I don't see any real cause for concern ... yet. As for Corpas: Manny Corpas Stats and Graphs - Colorado Rockies \| FanGraphs FB velocity down about 1.5 mph from last year, but not much out of line with his career averages. Pitch selection exactly the same. GB % exactly the same. 3 HRs allowed, with the same inflated 15% HR/FB rate as Francis. K rate down a lot: 4.35 vs. 6.69. BB rate even worse: 5.66 vs. 2.31. So I do think the sinker is still sinkin', and I don't think he's hurt. I do think he's a bit shell-shocked right now and as a result he's afraid to come right after hitters the way we're used to seeing. Most of all, I think he needs work and lots of it, and I wouldn't mind a quick trip back to AAA (or even Tulsa) to get that work in. Hurdle seems afraid to use him in game situations right now, and I think he's unlikely to get past this if he's not out on the mound. EDIT: Another biggie for Corpas: stranded a whopping (and unsustainable) 85% of baserunners last year; only 64% this year. And most of all: he's got all of 20 IP this year, the equivalent of about 3 starts. Last edited by BigRapidsJackass; 05-15-2008 at 05:48 PM.

05-19-2008, 02:10 AM	#11 (permalink)
GerryInCS Veteran Member Join Date: Nov 2006 Location: Colorado Springs Posts: 569	Yeah, it only took nine starts for him to get his 1st win. Yeah, he's OK ..... not __________________ Americans aren't afraid of Mexicans, Americans are afraid that Mexicans are turning America into Mexico.

05-26-2008, 02:32 AM	#15 (permalink)
GerryInCS Veteran Member Join Date: Nov 2006 Location: Colorado Springs Posts: 569	It keeps getting worse. It's bad enough that we have Tulo, Hawpe and barmes on the DL, now we have to add Holliday to the growing casualty list. Who's next? Cook? Francis (this might actually be a godd thing given the way he's pitching)? Fuentes? Torrealba (Another good thing as it means more Iannetta)? __________________ Americans aren't afraid of Mexicans, Americans are afraid that Mexicans are turning America into Mexico.

05-15-2008, 03:56 PM	#2 (permalink)
TheIncredibleRox Member Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 236	Two George Frazier bromides attempting to explain our woes that I'm not sure I can stand to hear one more time: "clutch hitting" (he has a few spinoffs in this avenue, and they all stink). But the worst is with Francis "He's just not making his pitches." A). I want to respond with some combination of "Duh" and "WTF does that really mean?" B.) That explanation works for about 2 starts, Frazier, at which point you have to come up with some other reason for a former frontline starter getting raked mercilessly. BRJ, for your 'will turn it around' list, I have to add a couple points. A.) As I've been saying practically all year, I'm convinced Francis is injured. (I also have strong suspicions with Morales, but thats another story). He's trying to do too much with his lower half, coming open a little too early, and has slightly lowered his arm angle, which all point to the shoulder from my experience. His FB is 83-87 instead of 87-91, and he knows it... as such, he's doing his damndest not to use it (way more offspeed pitches than we're used to seeing). He's even having trouble spotting it. B.) I don't believe Corpas is hurt, but there is a mechanical issue. Bottom line, than sinker ain't sinkin', and there can be several reasons for that. One we've seen a good example of firsthand; Jose Jimenez. He started to become overly rotational with his torso, resulting in a sinker with more lateral movement but absent real vertical break. This is example #49s of why young pitchers are so difficult; a new slider grip, a mechanical tweak that improves/destroys action on a key pitch, showing up to Spring Training +/- 2 MPH of velocity, and 250 other things can dramatically change someones value almost literally overnight. Here's hoping Manny straightens it out.

05-15-2008, 07:21 PM	#4 (permalink)
HoyaRoxFan Member Join Date: Mar 2007 Location: Washington, DC Posts: 266	BRJ, could you clarify exactly what you have in mind when you say Taveras will be among those who "turn it around" since "we know what to expect from them?" I'm kind of losing faith in him being anything but a streaky hitter with speed... otherwise known as overrated and/or valuable trade bait.

05-16-2008, 12:02 AM	#5 (permalink)
BigRapidsJackass Veteran Member Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 1,069	Willy will "turn it around" to the extent that he'll probably hit around his career average. Not much of a "turnaround" I guess, and I'd still rather see a commitment to let Spilborghs go for an extended time in CF.

05-16-2008, 11:55 PM	#8 (permalink)
TheIncredibleRox Member Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 236	If BIS gets it's type/velocity data from anywhere other than PitchFX, it's going to be less accurate, not more. It's going to be a single radar gun and either a subjective guess based on viewing or a subjective guess based off measured characteristics (namely velocity).

05-17-2008, 10:50 PM	#9 (permalink)
indianadrew Veteran Member Join Date: Nov 2006 Location: indianapolis Posts: 507	this site is nothing near what it used to be. ROXPERT!!! come on back. i miss reading your posts, as i disagreed with a few. has everybody gone to another site. newman, are you out there? whats the deal. this site used to hop.

05-18-2008, 07:39 PM	#10 (permalink)
BigRapidsJackass Veteran Member Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 1,069	Francis: officially o.k.

05-19-2008, 12:22 PM	#12 (permalink)
TheIncredibleRox Member Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 236	I was in bad seats yesterday and too distracted with company to really give Jeff a good look. But I don't regard allowing 2 runs in 6 innings as some remarkable verdict against a lineup where Craig Monroe is the 3-hole hitter, and you're also 'battling' Adam Everett, Kevin Slowey, Howie Clark, Mike Redmond, and the very sexy, skilled (to this point) out-machine known as Delmon Young.

05-20-2008, 12:00 AM	#13 (permalink)
BigRapidsJackass Veteran Member Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 1,069	Granted that was a pretty crappy Twins lineup yesterday. I was in a very good seat, and Francis looked very sharp. 2-run HR to Morneau is nothing to be ashamed about, but other than that nobody seriously hurt him. And he was able to get the K when he needed it. Velocity was fine, off-speed stuff looked good, most of all his fastball command was back. Not saying it was like what Jon Lester did tonight, but it was a very solid performance ... and he certainly looked to be cruising, not hurting. Don't forget, Francis is a control pitcher and he's reeled off 8 or so mediocre to crappy starts in a row before, so this doesn't strike me as anything new.

05-25-2008, 10:09 AM	#14 (permalink)
Newman Veteran Member Join Date: Dec 2006 Location: Aurora Posts: 500	Drew, you're lucky you have another team to root for. Go Tribe. Quit wondering about Roxpert. Isn't the better question what does Cocktoston think? Where is he anyway? Makes ME wonder what was last year all about? What kind of miracle was that? Maybe Francis needs to flick his own poppy seeds off his own bagel? Personal responsibilty? If we had drafted Longoria instead of Reynolds, could Evan play SS?