Complacency

Heltonfan · 04-27-2008, 10:58 AM

What have we seen this month?

- Jayson Nix can't hit.
- Jeff Baker can't hit.
- Manny Corpas is human.
- U-Ball and Morales aren't ready.
- Ramon Ramirez (13/2 K/BB ratio as a Royal) is a hell of a lot better than Micah Bowie.
- Giving $11 million to Torrealba, Wells, Vizcaino, and Redman (combined -0.20 WAR so far) wasn't such a good idea.

What is my point? Simple: that these are not things that should have had to be learned. Some of them are things about which O'Dowd should have known better, some of them are things about which certain over-optimistic sections of the fan base should have known better, some of them are both. And all of them are things that my projection spreadsheets made perfectly clear from the get-go.

This organization has grown horribly complacent. Building from within is all well and good, but it's simply not possible to win consistently without bringing in talent from outside the organization. You can collect assets via the free agent market, waivers, rule 5, trades, whatever... but you have to do it somehow. And we're not doing any of it at all. When was the last time that we gave out a good free agent contract longer than one year? When was the last time that we made a significant trade that demonstrated any creativity whatsoever (the Jennings trade was fantastic, but it was such a stunningly obvious move that I don't know how much credit we can really give O'Dowd for it)? When was the last time that we identified an underappreciated player in another organization and went and got him? I don't know the answers to those questions, but it's been a while, that's for sure.

BigRapidsJackass · 04-27-2008, 11:23 AM

You hit the nail on the head (as usual), HF.

Giving up on a guy like Ramon Ramirez is, in and of itself, not so ridiculous. Time was running out on him.

But giving up on him to make roster room for Micah Bowie? Mark Redman? Giving up on him to make room to make sure you have roster space to spend $7 million on Kip Wells and Luis Vizcaino? That's ridiculous. Particularly when you still have a gaping hole to fill at 2B.

So once again, we've dug ourselves a deep hole before April is even done. Nix looks like a complete write-off. Guys like Barmes (and Quintanilla) have moved ahead of him in the depth chart. The only reason he's still around is O'Dowd's other ridiculous tendency: the refusal to give up on his "prospects" when their prospect status has long since disappeared. Jeff Baker is 27, can't hit enough to play a corner position, and is at most a utility man who can't play SS. Nix? Nothing to indicate he's a big leaguer since 2004. Both are out of options, so both fill roster spots that are desperately needed for productive players. Both have essentially zero trade value. Yet O'Dowd exhibits that strange psychological disorder that causes him to overvalue his own possessions even though the world thinks they're basically worthless.

So here's where it's going: rotation will be Francis-Cook-Redman (for another month or so till they pull the plug on him)-Wells-Towers/de la Rosa/Hirsh.

Barmes will play 2B for another month or so until his numbers return to a Barmes-like bottom.

Torrealba and Taveras will continue to suck up 80% of the combined C-CF plate appearances even though everyone will have to agree that the club's best chance to improve immediately is to reverse that and give Iannetta-Spilly the majority of PAs.

The only fortunate thing is that other than the D'backs (who really are good, but not this good) nobody else in the NL West has started strong. But it was an offseason that was based on staying competitive for the next several years, and not one that was centered on really trying to win anything this year.

Heltonfan · 04-27-2008, 12:29 PM

I completely reject the notion that "time was running out" on Ramirez. He pitched well in the big leagues last year (3.58 FIP) - he just happened to get hammered on BABIP, and had some absolutely rotten situational luck. And then he went down to AAA and struck out 35 guys in 28 innings.

All told, in 2006-2007, Ramirez pitched 113 innings with a 3.42 FIP and a 3.25 ERC. Just for comparison, in those same two years, Brian Fuentes pitched 127 innings with a 3.56 FIP and 3.00 ERC. And if Fuentes had been DFAd in spring training, we'd all have been trying to get O'Dowd committed...

Giving up on Ramirez was an absolutely disgusting decision. I had him projected at 3.51 entering the season, and with his early dominance, that projection has gone all the way down to 3.16. He's one of the top 20-30 relievers in the game.

Incidentally, the Royals bullpen is the perfect example of what we're not doing. Stud closer Joakim Soria? Rule 5 pick. Joel Peralta? Waiver claim. And then Ramirez. That's a top three that quite a few higher-profile teams would be very envious of.

Quote:

But it was an offseason that was based on staying competitive for the next several years...

I'd cut out the last six words there. It was an offseason that was based on staying. Period. I get absolutely no sense that progress was even being attempted.

Quote:

The only reason he's still around is O'Dowd's other ridiculous tendency: the refusal to give up on his "prospects" when their prospect status has long since disappeared.

Yep. Nix I can kind of understand... former first round pick, great glove, bat showing signs of improvement... but someone really needs to explain to me why Baker isn't just seen as garbage.

Quote:

Barmes will play 2B for another month or so until his numbers return to a Barmes-like bottom.

Undoubtedly. And there's still no excuse for it. The Cubs' 2B situation is no less crowded than it was during the offseason; Theriot or Cedeno could be had. D'Angelo Jimenez is in AAA. The Nats would probably part with Felipe Lopez. Any of those guys would bring far more upside than Barmes.

BigRapidsJackass · 04-27-2008, 11:54 PM

"Time was running out on Ramirez" only in that he was out of options. Just like Baker and Nix.

Unfortunately, O'Dowd's 0 for 3 in choosing which one of the optionless guys deserved to make the team.

HoyaRoxFan · 04-28-2008, 08:54 AM

It's funny how a month ago, we were less concerned, as it appeared that all this discussion was more or less over the 24th or 25th man on the roster. How quickly things change.

I'm eager to see Kip Wells have a shot in the rotation. I mourn the loss of Josh Fogg. And I see Troy Renck suggests the Rockies may take a flyer on Matt Morris. How can a team defending the NL pennant be so closely linked to the fate of so many former Pittsburgh Pirates pitchers???

And yet, we're not the only team slow out of the gates. There's still all sorts of time. And stocked as we are at some other positions, we're one or two moves away from being back to singing the praises of O'Dowd and crew. On the one hand, I'm frustrated that their success has likely given them a free pass this year, and yet that success does count for something. We're not the Pirates; we're defending the pennant. We're rough at second base. How many teams aren't? And there's always room for more pitching... okay... a lot more... but I don't think we're in irreparable shape, and I don't necessarily fault the team for giving these guys a shot... in April.

TheIncredibleRox · 04-28-2008, 05:37 PM

HF, as I've been saying for a while, my perception is that management is trying to compensate for post-2001 by doing the polar opposite. That is, "if it ain't broke..." (which is of course one of the dumbest axioms in the world).

But it's more than that... it's more like "it worked, so we better seal it in plaster." This team has been preaching BS for a while... chemistry over production, scrappiness over goodness, internal options instead of far better external options because they've come up in the organization, etc. By more or less walking ass-backwards into a competitive team, they're saying "see, we were right" whereas they should be saying "thank God, now let's keep it rolling."

I had a management professor I was fond of... my favorite saying of his was "organizational inertia is the most powerful force known to man." Sadly true.

TheIncredibleRox · 04-28-2008, 05:40 PM

I want to be clear about the plaster comment above... that wasn't a direct reference to the extensions. Each of those looked fine to me in their own right.

The thing being set in plaster is the type of thinking that makes Jayson Nix your opening day 2B.

wolf213 · 04-29-2008, 03:23 AM

What gets me is this ho hum everything will work itself type of attitude.

Our hitters havn't hit, and I don't see any improvement. Our U-ball and Morales can't pitch past the 4th inning, but we seem to keep trotting them out there.

This offseason, anyone with half a brain could've figured out that Nix was gonna suck.... did we do anything besides a half ass'ed attempted at Iguchi. Did Giles even get a chance?

I'm tired of watching a team that is playing with out passion. Everytime I see them its like they don't care.. Hell when the manager gets ejected, he doesn't even seem to make a big scene of it.

BigRapidsJackass · 04-30-2008, 12:19 PM

Quote:

Did Giles even get a chance?

No, he didn't. That drives me nuts in spring training. Hurdle and O'Dowd come in spouting, "the job is up for grabs ... you've got to win it ... nobody is being handed anything." And then Nix (who hit 4 HRs but really was outplayed by Giles, Barmes, AND Quintanilla) is handed the job. And given the bogus "player of spring training" award to justify it. Same with Morales, who did nothing to "win" the 5th starter job.

So stop b.s.ing and just say "the job is Nix's to lose" or something like that.

HF, don't you find it a little bit sad that you're left pining for Ronny Cedeno?

Hey, did anyone sign Neifi? His suspension is half over ...

HoyaRoxFan · 04-30-2008, 08:06 PM

At the risk of being difficult, are we referring to the Marcus Giles who, by all accounts, is still a free agent, having decided halfway to L.A. that he didn't want to be a third baseman?

BigRapidsJackass · 04-30-2008, 08:12 PM

Yeah, that very same Marcus Giles, the one who's coming off consecutive awful/pretty poor seasons, the one who may have only exhibited any kind of power at the plate due to the use of performance enhancing drugs (if rumors are to be believed), the one who is at best an average fielder, and the one who is now on the wrong side of 30 ...

... and the one who is STILL better than Jayson Nix.

HoyaRoxFan · 04-30-2008, 08:20 PM

Agreed.

Optimistic sign, however, that Iannetta caught Jimenez today. So much for Yorvit's leadership and ability to help the Latin pitchers...

Heltonfan · 04-30-2008, 10:32 PM

Quote:

HF, don't you find it a little bit sad that you're left pining for Ronny Cedeno?

.249 ABR projection, above-average defensive shortstop, still pre-arb... give me three or four Ronny Cedenos to start a team and I'd be unstoppable.

Xitdax8 · 05-04-2008, 01:08 AM

Definetely a rough start for us, but remember guys, we did have a real rough start last year as well. At this time we were almost at the exact same spot (11-17.)

The starting pitching is definetely.. in a tough spot. Maybe we oughta give Rodrigo Lopez a shot again. I would certainly trust him more than Redman in the rotation.

wolf213 · 05-04-2008, 01:47 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Xitdax8

Definetely a rough start for us, but remember guys, we did have a real rough start last year as well. At this time we were almost at the exact same spot (11-17.)

The starting pitching is definetely.. in a tough spot. Maybe we oughta give Rodrigo Lopez a shot again. I would certainly trust him more than Redman in the rotation.

Lopez is still Hurt and is likely out for the season, or at the very least, August, so he's not an option.

04-27-2008, 10:58 AM	#1 (permalink)
Heltonfan Moderator Join Date: Nov 2006 Location: Yerevan, Armenia Posts: 833	Complacency What have we seen this month? - Jayson Nix can't hit. - Jeff Baker can't hit. - Manny Corpas is human. - U-Ball and Morales aren't ready. - Ramon Ramirez (13/2 K/BB ratio as a Royal) is a hell of a lot better than Micah Bowie. - Giving $11 million to Torrealba, Wells, Vizcaino, and Redman (combined -0.20 WAR so far) wasn't such a good idea. What is my point? Simple: that these are not things that should have had to be learned. Some of them are things about which O'Dowd should have known better, some of them are things about which certain over-optimistic sections of the fan base should have known better, some of them are both. And all of them are things that my projection spreadsheets made perfectly clear from the get-go. This organization has grown horribly complacent. Building from within is all well and good, but it's simply not possible to win consistently without bringing in talent from outside the organization. You can collect assets via the free agent market, waivers, rule 5, trades, whatever... but you have to do it somehow. And we're not doing any of it at all. When was the last time that we gave out a good free agent contract longer than one year? When was the last time that we made a significant trade that demonstrated any creativity whatsoever (the Jennings trade was fantastic, but it was such a stunningly obvious move that I don't know how much credit we can really give O'Dowd for it)? When was the last time that we identified an underappreciated player in another organization and went and got him? I don't know the answers to those questions, but it's been a while, that's for sure.

04-28-2008, 08:54 AM	#5 (permalink)
HoyaRoxFan Member Join Date: Mar 2007 Location: Washington, DC Posts: 266	It's funny how a month ago, we were less concerned, as it appeared that all this discussion was more or less over the 24th or 25th man on the roster. How quickly things change. I'm eager to see Kip Wells have a shot in the rotation. I mourn the loss of Josh Fogg. And I see Troy Renck suggests the Rockies may take a flyer on Matt Morris. How can a team defending the NL pennant be so closely linked to the fate of so many former Pittsburgh Pirates pitchers??? And yet, we're not the only team slow out of the gates. There's still all sorts of time. And stocked as we are at some other positions, we're one or two moves away from being back to singing the praises of O'Dowd and crew. On the one hand, I'm frustrated that their success has likely given them a free pass this year, and yet that success does count for something. We're not the Pirates; we're defending the pennant. We're rough at second base. How many teams aren't? And there's always room for more pitching... okay... a lot more... but I don't think we're in irreparable shape, and I don't necessarily fault the team for giving these guys a shot... in April. Last edited by HoyaRoxFan; 04-28-2008 at 08:57 AM.

05-04-2008, 01:08 AM	#14 (permalink)
Xitdax8 Member Join Date: Sep 2007 Posts: 17	Definetely a rough start for us, but remember guys, we did have a real rough start last year as well. At this time we were almost at the exact same spot (11-17.) The starting pitching is definetely.. in a tough spot. Maybe we oughta give Rodrigo Lopez a shot again. I would certainly trust him more than Redman in the rotation. Last edited by Xitdax8; 05-04-2008 at 01:14 AM.

04-27-2008, 11:23 AM	#2 (permalink)
BigRapidsJackass Veteran Member Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 1,069	You hit the nail on the head (as usual), HF. Giving up on a guy like Ramon Ramirez is, in and of itself, not so ridiculous. Time was running out on him. But giving up on him to make roster room for Micah Bowie? Mark Redman? Giving up on him to make room to make sure you have roster space to spend $7 million on Kip Wells and Luis Vizcaino? That's ridiculous. Particularly when you still have a gaping hole to fill at 2B. So once again, we've dug ourselves a deep hole before April is even done. Nix looks like a complete write-off. Guys like Barmes (and Quintanilla) have moved ahead of him in the depth chart. The only reason he's still around is O'Dowd's other ridiculous tendency: the refusal to give up on his "prospects" when their prospect status has long since disappeared. Jeff Baker is 27, can't hit enough to play a corner position, and is at most a utility man who can't play SS. Nix? Nothing to indicate he's a big leaguer since 2004. Both are out of options, so both fill roster spots that are desperately needed for productive players. Both have essentially zero trade value. Yet O'Dowd exhibits that strange psychological disorder that causes him to overvalue his own possessions even though the world thinks they're basically worthless. So here's where it's going: rotation will be Francis-Cook-Redman (for another month or so till they pull the plug on him)-Wells-Towers/de la Rosa/Hirsh. Barmes will play 2B for another month or so until his numbers return to a Barmes-like bottom. Torrealba and Taveras will continue to suck up 80% of the combined C-CF plate appearances even though everyone will have to agree that the club's best chance to improve immediately is to reverse that and give Iannetta-Spilly the majority of PAs. The only fortunate thing is that other than the D'backs (who really are good, but not this good) nobody else in the NL West has started strong. But it was an offseason that was based on staying competitive for the next several years, and not one that was centered on really trying to win anything this year.

04-27-2008, 11:54 PM	#4 (permalink)
BigRapidsJackass Veteran Member Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 1,069	"Time was running out on Ramirez" only in that he was out of options. Just like Baker and Nix. Unfortunately, O'Dowd's 0 for 3 in choosing which one of the optionless guys deserved to make the team.

04-28-2008, 05:37 PM	#6 (permalink)
TheIncredibleRox Member Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 236	HF, as I've been saying for a while, my perception is that management is trying to compensate for post-2001 by doing the polar opposite. That is, "if it ain't broke..." (which is of course one of the dumbest axioms in the world). But it's more than that... it's more like "it worked, so we better seal it in plaster." This team has been preaching BS for a while... chemistry over production, scrappiness over goodness, internal options instead of far better external options because they've come up in the organization, etc. By more or less walking ass-backwards into a competitive team, they're saying "see, we were right" whereas they should be saying "thank God, now let's keep it rolling." I had a management professor I was fond of... my favorite saying of his was "organizational inertia is the most powerful force known to man." Sadly true.

04-28-2008, 05:40 PM	#7 (permalink)
TheIncredibleRox Member Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 236	I want to be clear about the plaster comment above... that wasn't a direct reference to the extensions. Each of those looked fine to me in their own right. The thing being set in plaster is the type of thinking that makes Jayson Nix your opening day 2B.

04-29-2008, 03:23 AM	#8 (permalink)
wolf213 Member Join Date: Nov 2006 Location: Thornton Co Posts: 175	What gets me is this ho hum everything will work itself type of attitude. Our hitters havn't hit, and I don't see any improvement. Our U-ball and Morales can't pitch past the 4th inning, but we seem to keep trotting them out there. This offseason, anyone with half a brain could've figured out that Nix was gonna suck.... did we do anything besides a half ass'ed attempted at Iguchi. Did Giles even get a chance? I'm tired of watching a team that is playing with out passion. Everytime I see them its like they don't care.. Hell when the manager gets ejected, he doesn't even seem to make a big scene of it.

04-30-2008, 08:06 PM	#10 (permalink)
HoyaRoxFan Member Join Date: Mar 2007 Location: Washington, DC Posts: 266	At the risk of being difficult, are we referring to the Marcus Giles who, by all accounts, is still a free agent, having decided halfway to L.A. that he didn't want to be a third baseman?

04-30-2008, 08:12 PM	#11 (permalink)
BigRapidsJackass Veteran Member Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 1,069	Yeah, that very same Marcus Giles, the one who's coming off consecutive awful/pretty poor seasons, the one who may have only exhibited any kind of power at the plate due to the use of performance enhancing drugs (if rumors are to be believed), the one who is at best an average fielder, and the one who is now on the wrong side of 30 ... ... and the one who is STILL better than Jayson Nix.

04-30-2008, 08:20 PM	#12 (permalink)
HoyaRoxFan Member Join Date: Mar 2007 Location: Washington, DC Posts: 266	Agreed. Optimistic sign, however, that Iannetta caught Jimenez today. So much for Yorvit's leadership and ability to help the Latin pitchers...