2008 Minor League Thread

[Heltonfan]

Tulsa
Brandon Hynick: 6.2 IP, 7 H, 0 BB, 6 K, 2 HR
Modesto
Aneury Rodriguez: 2.2 IP, 6 H, 2 BB, 0 K
Asheville
Cory Riordan: 7 IP, 9 H, 1 BB, 9 K
Brian Rike: 3-5, 2B

[Heltonfan]

Modesto
Esmil Rogers: 6 IP, 5 H, 2 BB, 3 K
Asheville
Jhoulys Chacin: 7 IP, 4 H, 2 BB, 5 K
David Christensen: 3-4, 2 HR (first HRs of the year)

[Heltonfan]

Colorado Springs
Franklin Morales: 5 IP, 0 H, 6 BB, 3 K
Ian Stewart: 2-4, 2 2B
Modesto
Aneury Rodriguez: 9 IP, 1 H, 2 BB, 6 K
Michael McKenry: 2-5, 2 2B

No hits, six walks? That's incredible. The entire frustrating-yet-dazzling Morales experience, which we have seen in such detail during his time in the big leagues, condensed down into one start.

So, uh, Aneury Rodriguez is pretty good...

[GerryInCS]

That Morales games was also the first no-hitter in Sky Sox history, even though they gave up a run due to all the walks.

Aneury should be in Tulsa, they need the help in the rotation.

[TheIncredibleRox]

Ugggh. I had written a very lengthy post detailing who's doing what on the prospect trail. But I was on a diffetrent CPU. Fanhome deleted the post, claiming I was not logged in (though I just had before the post).

Anyways, here were the key points.

--I'm convinced Dexter Fowler is our best position player prospect, Chacin is giving Rodriguez a run for his money as our best pitcher.

--Low Minors pratically devoid of position player prospects, especially with Hector Gomez hurt. McKenry, Holcomb, Cabrera are the exceptions, though Cabrera has been slipping due to his contact rate, and none of those three look like any kind of studs at this point. But there are plenty of good arms: unfortunately, many/most are a year or so older than you'd like to see for their level.

--Brandon Hynick and Chris Nelson are the biggest '08 disappointments for me. Nelson teased us last year into thinking he may be back on track. He's not even close. Hynick proved to be case #12,338 of why k-rates (especially in A-ball) just have to be there. He's allowed 20 HR in just over 100 IP. I didn't know that was even possible in the Texas League.

--Don't hold his draft slot against him: Casey Weathers has been blowing people away (when he finds the plate). I'm pretty impressed that a guy who's only been pitching ~2 years is handling AA this well. He may get a cup of coffee.

--I'm now convinced Seth Smith and Ian Stewart will have meaningful Major League careers; something I could not say 12 months ago. They're both reasons to trade Tavares and/or Hawpe.

--Franklin Morales is making me vomit.

[HoyaRoxFan]

So if you look out over the next month and imagine the Rockies making a move or two, presumably for prospects, is there a certain obvious hole you think we should be filling? The obvious answer in my head is pitching, pitching, and pitching, but Incredible suggests we now have a dearth of position players in the lower levels as well...

I've often wondered how many of the prospects traded in July to restock systems end up being big-shots, and whether they're obvious almost-ready-for-the-big-show type guys or whether they're still green at the lower levels. Could this be the time to get some single-A or AA refils instead of one or two AAA guys? Or must one always stick to the top of the systems?

[TheIncredibleRox]

Here's my very quick, very dirty list. Just tried to subjectively weigh their ceiling and likelihood of having a significant MLB career evenly.

1. Fowler
2. Stewart
3. Rodriguez
4. Chacin
5. Morales
6. Gomez
7. Smith
8. Weathers
9. Cabrera
10. Morillo
11. Holcomb
12. Riordan
13. McKenry
14. Roe
15. Koshasky
16. Lindsay
17. Craig Baker
18. EY Jr.
19. Herrera
20. Weiser

[TheIncredibleRox]

I'm not sure I believe in trading on the basis of organizational strength or weakness, other than perhaps the Major League roster (and even then, only when you have total boulders in place, like Helton). Other than that, you always want to get guys on the premium end of the defensive spectrum, because they'll be able to play pracically anywhere. And of course, there's always going to be spot for quality arms.

[BigRapidsJackass]

Thanks for the update, IR. With Heltonfan no doubt off touring the Caucasus, I've kind of lost track of our minor league talent.

I'd be inclined to move Chacin all the way up to #2. Sickels seems ready to agree:

Thoughts on Jhoulys*Chacin - Minor League Ball

Looks kind of like a Ubaldo Jimenez type now. Read the comments: he apparently grew 4 inches and put on 30 pounds? Between ages 19-20? That can happen, but perhaps he was a year or two younger than we thought (shades of Adrian Beltre?)

Fowler looks legit. We should now be thinking of his ETA as mid-season '09, Sept '09 at the latest. If the Rox are out of it, a September cup of coffee this year is certainly not out of the question.

I now see Ian Stewart as a Brad Hawpe type. He'll bloom a little later than expected, and won't be the player we once thought he could be. But I'll take Brad Hawpe numbers from him. He's more athletic than Hawpe, so he ought to be able to play either 3B or RF with little difficulty.

This year seems to be separating the wheat from the chaff. Wheat: EY Jr. Chaff: Corey Wimberley. I'm fairly optimistic about EY. Wheat: Cory Riordan. Chaff: Brandon Hynick. Take a look at the ridiculous K/BB rate of Riordan: something like 100/15 at Asheville. Wheat: Jonathan Herrera (I see a useful MLB career, although I definitely see the lack of a SS arm based on his time with the Rox). Chaff: Chris Nelson. Sad, but I think it's over. I've predicted it before, and now I think it'll happen. He'll take up pitching again in a last-ditch effort to make it. Wheat: Casey Weathers. I think we'll see him in Sept, maybe August. Chaff: Juan Morillo. I see nothing to like there.

Where's Shane Lindsay? Hurt again? Same with Pedro Strop?

[Heltonfan]

Updated ProspectBot rankings:

1. Ian Stewart
2. Dexter Fowler
3. Chris Nelson
4. Darin Holcomb
5. Jhoulys Chacin
6. Eric Young
7. Michael McKenry
8. Hector Gomez
9. Aneury Rodriguez
10. Everth Cabrera
11. Chaz Roe
12. Seth Smith
13. Shane Lindsay
14. Xavier Cedeno
15. Brandon Hynick
16. Daniel Mayora
17. Joe Koshansky
18. Cory Riordan
19. Sean Smith
20. Kevin Clark
21. Helder Velazquez
22. Jonathan Herrera
23. Casey Weathers
24. Ching-Lung Lo
25. Alberto Arias
26. Bruce Billings
27. Jayson Nix
28. Will Harris
29. Esmil Rogers
30. Michael Mitchell

Notes:

- I remain thoroughly skeptical of Weathers. The guy has a 4.77 MLE FIP, with a probably unsustainable HR rate, and he's not particularly young. Considering how hard it is to be really valuable as a reliever, I still think ranking him as a top-15 prospect in the organization is nuts. Compare him to, say, Michael McKenry. Who has the better shot of being, say, a 1-WAR guy? 1 WAR for a reliever is well above average, someone like Brandon Lyon or Ryan Madson. 1 WAR for a catcher is Brian Schneider. I like McKenry's odds a lot better. And of course, 1 WAR isn't much to hope for... let's raise the bar. A 2-WAR reliever is a real stud, someone like Joakim Soria, Huston Street, or (cough) Ramon Ramirez. A 2-WAR catcher is... Gregg Zaun. Again, I'll take McKenry's chances over Weathers', no doubt about it.

- The ProspectBot has grown in sophistication since we last heard from it; I'm now regressing singles rates (i.e. the aspect of BABIP most likely to be luck-driven) somewhat. And it helps Chris Nelson. Using the standard old formulas, he has a .192 ABR this year; with a league-average singles rate (singles rate being defined here as (H-XBH)/(AB-XBH-K)), he'd be at .211. That's a substantial difference. His ABR projection is currently sitting at .217, which is pretty close to replacement-level for a shortstop. Given his age, that makes him a great bet to have at least some sort of big league career, and of course, he still has the potential to do much more.

- I feel I need to reiterate here the fact that the aging patterns for hitters and pitchers are radically different, which has a tremendous effect on these rankings. Jhoulys Chacin is three years younger than Chris Nelson, but since pitchers peak three years earlier than hitters (age 24 and 27, respectively), that's not as significant as it looks. So we've got two guys here who are equally far from their peaks, time-wise, and of the two, Nelson is substantially closer to being MLB-ready. Hence their respective rankings (the calculus is a little more involved than that, of course, but the basic principle is the important thing).

- Stewart and Fowler currently rank as the #15 and #23 prospects in the game, respectively.

[wolf213]

Originally Posted by TheIncredibleRox

--I'm now convinced Seth Smith and Ian Stewart will have meaningful Major League careers; something I could not say 12 months ago. They're both reasons to trade Tavares and/or Hawpe.

Don't get me wrong here, I like Smith as a prospect a bunch, however there has been another guy on the roster that has given us all the reason in the world to trade Tavares.... his name is Ryan.

[TheIncredibleRox]

No Morales, HF?

--What research are you using that leads you to 24 for a pitcher's peak? Your own? I've always either seen 25 or 26. Not doubting... just interested to check it out (if publicly available).

--Re: Weathers... I understand the argument from a statistical perspective. Though I wouldn't forget the potential effect of leverage (even if it is only a few runs). And when you consider he was pitching in the SEC 13 months ago, and wasn't pitching period a year before that, I guess I'm just a little more impressed than I would be absent that context.

--One of the reasons I disagree with your Nelson ranking; he's now considered, at best, a borderline defensive SS. I know your system isn't considering that sort of info.

--I don't understand how it could possibly have Chacin ahead of Rodriguez right now, especially by such a margin. Aneury's BABIP last year hurting him really bad, maybe? What weighting are you using (always tricky with Minor Leaguers)?

Oh, and Wolf: of course Spilly is first in line if Hawpe or Tavares are dealt. I meant more that they can step into Spilly's role (platoon/4th OF) rather than superceed him. Sorry I didn't make that clear.

[Heltonfan]

No Morales, HF?

He's not technically a prospect anymore. He'd rank third on the list, though.

What research are you using that leads you to 24 for a pitcher's peak? Your own?

Yep.

Though I wouldn't forget the potential effect of leverage.

Nor would I. All those numbers I gave take leverage into account. The trouble is that, in addition to leverage, there's the whole chaining issue to consider, which really cuts into a top reliever's value.

One of the reasons I disagree with your Nelson ranking; he's now considered, at best, a borderline defensive SS.

If we tell the ProspectBot to treat Nelson as a 2B, he'd fall between McKenry and Gomez in the rankings.

I don't understand how it could possibly have Chacin ahead of Rodriguez right now, especially by such a margin.

1) Chacin's a year younger.
2) Rodriguez has far more blah innings dragging down his projection. Those innings aren't weighted very heavily (current yearly weightings being used for him are 15.79, 6.62, 3, 1), but they still have an impact. However, the ProspectBot includes another regression factor, based on the number of IP/PA incorporated into the player's projection, to avoid overrating the small-sample guys; Chacin is probably hurt by this about as much as Aneury is hurt by his 2005-2006 blahness.
Incidentally, I'm guessing that you'll be a bit surprised by how aggressive those yearly weightings are... just imagine how utterly impossible it would be for a pitching prospect to project well if I were using something like the old 5/3/2 system.
3) The BABIP thing, as you suspected. BABIP is heavily regressed, of course, but it still counts for something. And Aneury's was pretty extreme.
4) The margin between them isn't actually that big - they're pretty tightly clustered in that group.

[wolf213]

A quick look at our 2008 Picks so far:

1) Christian Friedrich - Hasn't played yet
2) Charlie Blackman - .282/.396/.397 I really liked this pick (and hand't heard how others like HF and TIR felt) but so far he's kinda disappointed.
3) Aaron Weatherford - Hasn't played yet
4) Ethan Hollingsworth - 12.1 IP/13 Strikeouts / 2 BB / 8 R allowed - Pretty encouraging so far.
5) Chris Dominguez - Looking like he wont sign
6) Kiel Roling - Stupid stupid pick
7) Dan Houston - 18 Strikeouts and 1 BB in 14 IP, looking good so far.
8) Kurt Yacko - 12 K in 7 IP... could be a nice MR someday
9) Craig Bennigson - Hasn't played much

Others of note:

Kyle Walker - 11/3 K/BB in 7IP
Patrick Rose - .819 OPS
Thomas Field - .433 OBP despite a .255 Average
Adam Jorgenson - 14 Strikeouts in 7 IP 1BB
Matt Baugh - 16 Strikeouts in 16 IP
Alexander Feinberg - .538 OBP batting .400
Bradley McAtee - .50 ERA 13 Hits allowed in 18 IP

[TheIncredibleRox]

1) Chacin's a year younger.

Okay, that's the biggun... you're using the first as your cutoff date, I see.

In reality, they're less than a month apart (mid-December and early Jan bdays).

Those innings aren't weighted very heavily (current yearly weightings being used for him are 15.79, 6.62, 3, 1),

I've always done 8-3-1 for anyone 22 and younger, so I'm not so suprised at the aggressiveness. But I arrived at my numbers the quick and dirty way: they just seemed to fit intuitively. Are you just using a sliding scale based on distance from peak, or are there other factors (consistency, breakouts) than are weighing in?

And unless we have different names for the same thing, I don't know what you mean by 'chaining' re: Weathers. I'm guessing you either mean how a manger optimizes for situation and/or the effects of fatigue and their effect on bullpen sub-optimization?