Tulo's extension

Heltonfan · January 20th, 2008, 10:13 PM

One of the things I've done this winter, which is interesting but generally rather useless, is put together a model to predict arbitration salaries. Tangotiger's model (20/40/60/80 percent of free agent value for 2+, 3+, 4+, and 5+ years of service) flat-out doesn't work, at least not after the way this free agent market has gone.

Anyway, I've got a model which works quite well - using this winter's data, it's accurate to within 3% for all service-time groups except super-2's, and the only reason it misses on the super-2's is that it (correctly) thinks Jose Bautista is worthless. Here's what the model says for Tulo's expected salary in his arb years:
2010: $3.4 million
2011: $8 million
2012: $12.5 million
And here's the kicker. Check out what it predicts for Tulo's first two years of free agency, which are being bought out:
2013: $30 million
2014: $30 million
And that's not based on any expectations of superstardom; Tulo is projected in the 3-3.5 WAR range for every year of the contract. It's just what inflation does. A player of Tulo's caliber is worth $20 million on the free agent market right now, and that number is only going to go up. If you're skeptical of the inflation idea, we can get rid of it, and presume that this winter's $/win rate will remain the going rate for the foreseeable future. If we do that, Tulo's free agent salaries for 2013 and 2014 come out to $20.6 million and $19.1 million.

We are apparently getting Tulo locked up through 2013 for $30 million, with an option for 2014. Let's just guess that the option is worth $15 million. That means it's a total of $45 million for seven years. The model predicts $24.7 million for him through his arb years, which basically means that we're buying out two years of free agency, worth anywhere from $40-60 million, for just $20 million.

In other words, this is a great deal for us even if Tulo meets his projections, i.e. he never has another season as good as his 2007 but remains a well-above-average player. If he's merely league-average, it's still a fine contract. If he turns into the best shortstop in the league, which is of course very possible, it's a bargain of Sizemorean proportions. The only way this backfires on us is if he gets hit by a bus, and even then, $30 million over 6 years is pretty trivial.

So I give this one a big thumbs up. In the grand scheme of things, this and the Cook extension more than make up for the depressingly lame free agent pitching acquisitions.

John Cocktoston · January 20th, 2008, 11:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Heltonfan

The only way this backfires on us is if he gets hit by a bus, and even then, $30 million over 6 years is pretty trivial.

Yeah, that's about right. This is a terrific contract for the Rockies and, coupled with the Cook extension, the "trade" of Vizcaino for Hawkins and their refusal to match Houston's ridiculous offer to Matsui, this caps off a pretty solid off-season for the defending NL champions.

Although, having said that, I fully expect the usual suspects to sell their usual nonsense that this is somehow a bad deal for the Rockies and a harbinger of imminent doom on 20th and Blake.

Let me take a stab at it for them: maybe Charlie Monfort and Dan O'Dowd should have consulted the RTD schedule before signing the deal? That's about all they have to work with on this one...

BigRapidsJackass · January 20th, 2008, 11:44 PM

You won't be hearing it from me.

This is a fantastic deal. I saw some of the comments on it over at Baseballthinkfactory.org, and I can't understand how some people out there are critical of this deal. The only real risk is that Tulo never hits like he hit last year. Shortstops who are that good in the field just don't lose it at a young age. So the worst you've got is a fine fielder and productive hitter. The best case scenario is an MVP quality player. Best of all, it does a lot to silence the critics of the Monforts.

I, like a lot of people, said this was a put up or shut up winter for the Monforts. So far they've put up. And so I'll shut up.

For now.

Roxpert · January 21st, 2008, 09:02 AM

It's a "no brainer" deal for the Rockies. Anyone who wants to take a swipe at skeptical fans for a deal like this doesn't think skeptics can ever find good examples of bad management. And this is not one of them. Tulo has "HOF" talent, and everyone can see it. The only question about him is how good of a hitter he'll become. While his struggles at making contact sometimes bother me, I see a player who will be AT LEAST as good a hitter in his career as Cal Ripken, with the ceiling of putting up seasons such as what we saw with Matt Holliday in 2007.

It's a fine deal, and let's just hope they can build around "Tulo's franchise" (he will be the face of the team for years to come as Jeter is for the Yankees).

hiaspire · January 21st, 2008, 11:56 AM

This big contract will be viewed as a very positive move by the fanbase who already loves Tulo and was skeptical ownership wouldn't invest to keep guys like him, but there are some points to the contrary also that suggest they may have jumped the gun here unneccessarily. You gotta give ownership praise for locking up a young leader and important part of your core, but far be it from me to look at the other side of things also...

According to RotoWorld: "It'd be the largest deal ever for a player with less than two years of service time, eclipsing the one Grady Sizemore signed two years ago."

Largest contract ever for a player of this experience level? I like Tulo and all, but that may be stretching things a bit. At least we can't be accused of being cheap there.

I don't really buy a statistical arguement that it'll be a good deal even if Tulo doesn't improve offensively as expected. That puts way too much worth on iffy defensive stats and the value there. If defense is all you want and don't care so much about offensive progress, you can find a journeyman with a good glove and lesser bat without too much trouble for much less cabbage. You could even get arguably the best defensive SS (Adam Everett) who was non-tendered by his former team and could have easily been signed by anyone to a one-year deal for $2-3M or so.

So it certainly doesn't take $30 million and a long commitment to buy yourself good defense, and the Rox don't want him for just the glove/arm either. Nor should they if they are going to sign him to a record breaking deal. They view him as a hitter who could play a key role in their offense also, as well as being a team leader and the face of the franchise for years ahead. He could not only be one of the best fielders at his position, but also put up some of the best offensive numbers as well. He's certainly worth going all out to keeping him here.

But right now? To me, Tulo doesn't seem like a player who'd develop bad feelings toward the franchise if they didn't give him a monster deal early in his career (actually quite the opposite as a real team player). Maybe the additional money he's getting in the next few seasons would have been better invested in a top reliever to supplement the team's playoff run while they still have Holliday and Tulo inexpensively.

It was good for the long-term, but possibly not the best way to optimize the team for a playoff run in 2008 and 2009 before you might lose your MVP. By then, you would be looking at raises for Tulo in arbitration and could use Holliday's money to sign him to that big deal. On the other hand, if they wait perhaps they don't get him for near the price if he keeps improving as they would today. But players don't always improve...

Angel Berroa won Rookie of the Year in 2003, hitting .287 with 17 HRs. That's just a bit below Tulo in Coors Field his rookie year at the plate. Berroa had some statistical support for his ROY award here also I believe. KC gave him a nice 4-year contract in 2004 where he'll earn nearly $5M this upcoming season and nearly $6M next year. Is that still a good investment as the Royals designated him for assignment and he spends most of the year in AAA now? Tulo's certainly better than him in many ways, but on a smaller scale the Royals invested prematurely in their rookie award winner at SS back then also which turned out to be a poor decision.

But I can't criticize the Rockies too much here. This does feel like progress, and I will enjoy having Tulo around for years. There is another side to consider, though, and it is possible that this will not look like such a good deal down the road as it seems today -- especially if Tulo regresses at the plate and we are left praising him for his defensive statistics alone while writing those big checks while other teams can pick up the Adam Everetts of the world without too much trouble.

John Cocktoston · January 21st, 2008, 12:17 PM

Anyone who contorts this into an opportunity to defend the perpetual naysayers and self-styled "skeptical fans" does so because he resents the hell out of the Rockies' success last year and doesn't like the healthy servings of crow he's been force-fed over the last 12 months.

While not without risk, this is a great move for the organization. It's also yet another sign that the club is headed in the right direction and that 2007 was not a fluke, despite how badly some "skeptical fans" would love that to be the case.

Roxpert · January 21st, 2008, 02:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by John Cocktoston

Anyone who contorts this into an opportunity to defend the perpetual naysayers and self-styled "skeptical fans" does so because he resents the hell out of the Rockies' success last year and doesn't like the healthy servings of crow he's been force-fed over the last 12 months.

While not without risk, this is a great move for the organization. It's also yet another sign that the club is headed in the right direction and that 2007 was not a fluke, despite how badly some "skeptical fans" would love that to be the case.

We are contorting. Yeah, right.

Get over yourself, and I mean it. While you didn't name names above, we all realize which posters you are aiming your vitriol towards. And it couldn't be more wrong. ALL fans posting on this board are Rockies fans and wish for nothing but continued success. For you to continue to impune the desires of certain fans here to see success vs. failure of this team, as you have done in the past, is a continued contortion of reality.

Of course, it comes as no surprise when you write it.

John Cocktoston · January 21st, 2008, 05:12 PM

Wow, you sound awfully defensive man.

indianadrew · January 21st, 2008, 06:05 PM

at least nobody whined about an ad hominem attack.

Roxpert · January 21st, 2008, 06:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by John Cocktoston

Wow, you sound awfully defensive man.

Troll. That's all I consider you anymore.

John Cocktoston · January 21st, 2008, 06:43 PM

You say that as though it carries some sort of gravitas, Roxpert. It doesn't.

Roxpert · January 21st, 2008, 07:14 PM

bedir than average · January 21st, 2008, 07:18 PM

so about that extension

John Cocktoston · January 21st, 2008, 07:21 PM

The feeling is mutual. I fart in your general direction...

BigRapidsJackass · January 21st, 2008, 07:57 PM

OK, fans, the offseason is getting waaay too long ...

... anyone noticed that there's an argument going on here between a phantom/strawman (the hypothetical person who would criticize the Tulo deal) and everyone who's actually posted? All of whom think it's a good deal for the Rockies, with just a touch of skepticism expressed by perennial O'Dowd lover HiAspire?

January 20th, 2008, 10:13 PM	#1 (permalink)
Heltonfan Moderator Join Date: Nov 2006 Location: Yerevan, Armenia Posts: 979	Tulo's extension One of the things I've done this winter, which is interesting but generally rather useless, is put together a model to predict arbitration salaries. Tangotiger's model (20/40/60/80 percent of free agent value for 2+, 3+, 4+, and 5+ years of service) flat-out doesn't work, at least not after the way this free agent market has gone. Anyway, I've got a model which works quite well - using this winter's data, it's accurate to within 3% for all service-time groups except super-2's, and the only reason it misses on the super-2's is that it (correctly) thinks Jose Bautista is worthless. Here's what the model says for Tulo's expected salary in his arb years: 2010: $3.4 million 2011: $8 million 2012: $12.5 million And here's the kicker. Check out what it predicts for Tulo's first two years of free agency, which are being bought out: 2013: $30 million 2014: $30 million And that's not based on any expectations of superstardom; Tulo is projected in the 3-3.5 WAR range for every year of the contract. It's just what inflation does. A player of Tulo's caliber is worth $20 million on the free agent market right now, and that number is only going to go up. If you're skeptical of the inflation idea, we can get rid of it, and presume that this winter's $/win rate will remain the going rate for the foreseeable future. If we do that, Tulo's free agent salaries for 2013 and 2014 come out to $20.6 million and $19.1 million. We are apparently getting Tulo locked up through 2013 for $30 million, with an option for 2014. Let's just guess that the option is worth $15 million. That means it's a total of $45 million for seven years. The model predicts $24.7 million for him through his arb years, which basically means that we're buying out two years of free agency, worth anywhere from $40-60 million, for just $20 million. In other words, this is a great deal for us even if Tulo meets his projections, i.e. he never has another season as good as his 2007 but remains a well-above-average player. If he's merely league-average, it's still a fine contract. If he turns into the best shortstop in the league, which is of course very possible, it's a bargain of Sizemorean proportions. The only way this backfires on us is if he gets hit by a bus, and even then, $30 million over 6 years is pretty trivial. So I give this one a big thumbs up. In the grand scheme of things, this and the Cook extension more than make up for the depressingly lame free agent pitching acquisitions.

January 21st, 2008, 11:56 AM	#5 (permalink)
hiaspire Member Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 491	This big contract will be viewed as a very positive move by the fanbase who already loves Tulo and was skeptical ownership wouldn't invest to keep guys like him, but there are some points to the contrary also that suggest they may have jumped the gun here unneccessarily. You gotta give ownership praise for locking up a young leader and important part of your core, but far be it from me to look at the other side of things also... According to RotoWorld: "It'd be the largest deal ever for a player with less than two years of service time, eclipsing the one Grady Sizemore signed two years ago." Largest contract ever for a player of this experience level? I like Tulo and all, but that may be stretching things a bit. At least we can't be accused of being cheap there. I don't really buy a statistical arguement that it'll be a good deal even if Tulo doesn't improve offensively as expected. That puts way too much worth on iffy defensive stats and the value there. If defense is all you want and don't care so much about offensive progress, you can find a journeyman with a good glove and lesser bat without too much trouble for much less cabbage. You could even get arguably the best defensive SS (Adam Everett) who was non-tendered by his former team and could have easily been signed by anyone to a one-year deal for $2-3M or so. So it certainly doesn't take $30 million and a long commitment to buy yourself good defense, and the Rox don't want him for just the glove/arm either. Nor should they if they are going to sign him to a record breaking deal. They view him as a hitter who could play a key role in their offense also, as well as being a team leader and the face of the franchise for years ahead. He could not only be one of the best fielders at his position, but also put up some of the best offensive numbers as well. He's certainly worth going all out to keeping him here. But right now? To me, Tulo doesn't seem like a player who'd develop bad feelings toward the franchise if they didn't give him a monster deal early in his career (actually quite the opposite as a real team player). Maybe the additional money he's getting in the next few seasons would have been better invested in a top reliever to supplement the team's playoff run while they still have Holliday and Tulo inexpensively. It was good for the long-term, but possibly not the best way to optimize the team for a playoff run in 2008 and 2009 before you might lose your MVP. By then, you would be looking at raises for Tulo in arbitration and could use Holliday's money to sign him to that big deal. On the other hand, if they wait perhaps they don't get him for near the price if he keeps improving as they would today. But players don't always improve... Angel Berroa won Rookie of the Year in 2003, hitting .287 with 17 HRs. That's just a bit below Tulo in Coors Field his rookie year at the plate. Berroa had some statistical support for his ROY award here also I believe. KC gave him a nice 4-year contract in 2004 where he'll earn nearly $5M this upcoming season and nearly $6M next year. Is that still a good investment as the Royals designated him for assignment and he spends most of the year in AAA now? Tulo's certainly better than him in many ways, but on a smaller scale the Royals invested prematurely in their rookie award winner at SS back then also which turned out to be a poor decision. But I can't criticize the Rockies too much here. This does feel like progress, and I will enjoy having Tulo around for years. There is another side to consider, though, and it is possible that this will not look like such a good deal down the road as it seems today -- especially if Tulo regresses at the plate and we are left praising him for his defensive statistics alone while writing those big checks while other teams can pick up the Adam Everetts of the world without too much trouble. Last edited by hiaspire; January 21st, 2008 at 12:04 PM.

January 21st, 2008, 07:14 PM	#12 (permalink)
Roxpert Veteran Member Join Date: Nov 2006 Location: Denver Posts: 1,153	Yawn

January 21st, 2008, 07:18 PM	#13 (permalink)
bedir than average Hall of Famer Join Date: Nov 2006 Location: Starbucks Posts: 8,258	so about that extension __________________ I'm sorry I left for a while. I needed a vaction, and then work changed substantially. I'm over 50 hour weeks, plus two hours a day of commuting time. A few weeks ago I launched my own blog about Seattle Sounders FC and Life in Puget Sound. I won't be by these parts often as my focus has changed. Sorry about the unannounced retirement.

January 21st, 2008, 07:21 PM	#14 (permalink)
John Cocktoston Member Join Date: May 2007 Posts: 375	The feeling is mutual. I fart in your general direction... Last edited by John Cocktoston; January 21st, 2008 at 07:24 PM.

January 20th, 2008, 11:44 PM	#3 (permalink)
BigRapidsJackass Veteran Member Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 1,257	You won't be hearing it from me. This is a fantastic deal. I saw some of the comments on it over at Baseballthinkfactory.org, and I can't understand how some people out there are critical of this deal. The only real risk is that Tulo never hits like he hit last year. Shortstops who are that good in the field just don't lose it at a young age. So the worst you've got is a fine fielder and productive hitter. The best case scenario is an MVP quality player. Best of all, it does a lot to silence the critics of the Monforts. I, like a lot of people, said this was a put up or shut up winter for the Monforts. So far they've put up. And so I'll shut up. For now.

January 21st, 2008, 09:02 AM	#4 (permalink)
Roxpert Veteran Member Join Date: Nov 2006 Location: Denver Posts: 1,153	It's a "no brainer" deal for the Rockies. Anyone who wants to take a swipe at skeptical fans for a deal like this doesn't think skeptics can ever find good examples of bad management. And this is not one of them. Tulo has "HOF" talent, and everyone can see it. The only question about him is how good of a hitter he'll become. While his struggles at making contact sometimes bother me, I see a player who will be AT LEAST as good a hitter in his career as Cal Ripken, with the ceiling of putting up seasons such as what we saw with Matt Holliday in 2007. It's a fine deal, and let's just hope they can build around "Tulo's franchise" (he will be the face of the team for years to come as Jeter is for the Yankees).

January 21st, 2008, 12:17 PM	#6 (permalink)
John Cocktoston Member Join Date: May 2007 Posts: 375	Anyone who contorts this into an opportunity to defend the perpetual naysayers and self-styled "skeptical fans" does so because he resents the hell out of the Rockies' success last year and doesn't like the healthy servings of crow he's been force-fed over the last 12 months. While not without risk, this is a great move for the organization. It's also yet another sign that the club is headed in the right direction and that 2007 was not a fluke, despite how badly some "skeptical fans" would love that to be the case.

January 21st, 2008, 05:12 PM	#8 (permalink)
John Cocktoston Member Join Date: May 2007 Posts: 375	Wow, you sound awfully defensive man.

January 21st, 2008, 06:05 PM	#9 (permalink)
indianadrew Veteran Member Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 1,144	at least nobody whined about an *ad hominem* attack.

January 21st, 2008, 06:43 PM	#11 (permalink)
John Cocktoston Member Join Date: May 2007 Posts: 375	You say that as though it carries some sort of gravitas, Roxpert. It doesn't.

January 21st, 2008, 07:57 PM	#15 (permalink)
BigRapidsJackass Veteran Member Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 1,257	OK, fans, the offseason is getting waaay too long ... ... anyone noticed that there's an argument going on here between a phantom/strawman (the hypothetical person who would criticize the Tulo deal) and everyone who's actually posted? All of whom think it's a good deal for the Rockies, with just a touch of skepticism expressed by perennial O'Dowd lover HiAspire?