Winter Roster Moves Thread

[BigRapidsJackass]

Here's a starter, from today's Denver Post online:

Conceding that free-agent catcher Yorvit Torrealba is likely to sign with the New York Mets today, the Rockies have turned their attention to other veteran catchers, including former Met Paul Lo Duca.

"Yes, we are interested in Lo Duca, but that's still preliminary," Rockies general manager Dan O'Dowd said this morning.

I'm all for "trading" Torrealba for LoDuca. In fact, I can't really imagine why the Mets would be willing to pay more for Yorvit. Yorvit's a fine guy to have on the club -- a steady backstop, kind of a rah-rah guy, good with the young Latin pitchers, occasional pop in his bat -- but it's time to face facts: he's simply not worth something on the order of 3 years/$10 million. He's really not worth that. There's this weird refrain about how Torrealba had a "career year" going on. Could someone please explain to me how his weakest year defensively (at least in terms of controlling opponent's base stealing) coupled with exactly the same substandard offensive production he's always provided counts as a "career year?"

LoDuca, Iannetta, and some Miguel Ojeda type would be an upgrade. I imagine Iannetta would start at AAA, and would assume primary catching duties by the end of the season. I like that plan.

Which brings me to the curious thing about this: how does pregnant wife-dumper LoDuca fit into the "character" thing?

[Heltonfan]

In fact, I can't really imagine why the Mets would be willing to pay more for Yorvit.

Because Yorvit and Lo Duca project identically for 2008, and Yorvit is six years younger.

I imagine Iannetta would start at AAA, and would assume primary catching duties by the end of the season. I like that plan.

I hate it.

Iannetta (age 25 next year):
2008 (projected): .255 ABR
2007: .220
2006: .274

Lo Duca (age 36 next year):
2008 (projected): .230
2007: .230
2006: .264

There's absolutely no excuse for not giving Iannetta the starting job from day one next year. Lo Duca is a horrible player. So is Torrealba, of course. So is Michael Barrett. All three of those guys are going to make $3 million or more next year; I wouldn't give any of them more than half that. So avoid them all, raid the minor-league FA market for a comparable player, and thereby leave Hurdle without a "proven veteran" to take playing time away from Iannetta.

[BigRapidsJackass]

First: I agree with everything you said. There is absolutely no reason Iannetta shouldn't be the starter. The combination should be something like Iannetta ($400,000) + veteran backup (~ $750,000) = $1.15 million spent on catchers, max. This club has other holes to fill, and (regardless of the spin on payroll) a tight budget. We have no one even arguably ready to take over as a starter at 2B, for example, whereas there's every reason to believe Iannetta could be average-ish at catcher, with a reasonable chance of being significantly above average. So don't waste money on catchers.

Second: For whatever reason, O'Dowd seems hell-bent on sending Iannetta back to AAA to start 2008. So I'm living in the real world here. If they offered Torrealba 2 years/$7 million, that's way, way too much. So I'm guessing LoDuca would have to come in way under that. And he might be hoping for a Coors revival to his career, so if you're looking at 1 year/$2.5 million or so, that strikes me as better than some of the other alternatives. That's what I mean when I say "I like that plan" -- I like it better than locking in Torrealba for 2 years at a relatively high salary, and then feeling that you've got to play him the majority of the time to get your money's worth. And let's face it, that's what would've happened if Yorvit had re-signed with us.

Third: HF, you really wallop the old guys in your projections now. I just looked: you've got LoDuca projected at a .230 ABR. Wouldn't your old-style projection system have had him at something more like .245 (roughly the weighted average of his last 3 years)? Do catchers get an accelerated aging curve, or is it the same for all players?

Ramon Castro may very well be available, and if he falls within that standard backup catcher salary range he'd be a much better option. Plus we already have had a wonderful experience blending in accused rapists like him into the mega-church previously known as Coors Field ... you do remember Jose Mesa, don't you?

It's Mets For Me: Off-Beat, Tangentially Relevant Mets Ruminations: August 2005 (pleaded down to misdemeanor assault)

EDIT: Didn't O'Dowd just get done confessing to how something bad he and/or the Rockies did (or failed to do) caused God to abandon him last summer? Is he really ready to incur the wrath of the Almighty by signing these questionable character guys?

Hey, I guess so!

[Heltonfan]

Third: HF, you really wallop the old guys in your projections now. I just looked: you've got LoDuca projected at a .230 ABR. Wouldn't your old-style projection system have had him at something more like .245 (roughly the weighted average of his last 3 years)?

Yep. But I'm quite confident that the new aging adjustments are superior. The old system projected a loss of only .004 runs/PA per year for someone Lo Duca's age... that's like 2 runs a year. Which is ridiculous; frankly, I don't know what the hell I was thinking.

Under my new system, guys lose .001 R/PA at age 29, .002 at age 30, .003 at age 31, etc., until age 39 when the aging penalty is capped at .010 (all of this is the same for all hitters, regardless of position, to answer your other question). That makes a heck of a lot more sense than my old system (and it also jives with the 0.5 wins a year aging penalty that Tangotiger uses).

The other important thing to note, with this aging stuff, is that older guys who really stunk a couple years ago get really hammered in the projections. Lo Duca, for example, had a .244 ABR in 2005; if that was the only data we had for him, I'd project a .223 in 2008 (annual losses of .006, .007, and .008 = total loss of .021). Mike Lowell is an even more extreme example; his .227 in '05 works out to a .212 in 2008, which really kills his projection.

And the converse, of course, is true for young players. Iannetta's .274 at age 23 translates to an expected .286 at age 25.

If they offered Torrealba 2 years/$7 million, that's way, way too much. So I'm guessing LoDuca would have to come in way under that.

You're guessing wrong. Brad Ausmus (Brad Ausmus. Seriously) got $2 million. J.C. Romero got 3 years, $12 million (I know, different position, but still). Lo Duca, for all of his obvious worthlessness, is a catcher who hit over .270 this year; I'll be shocked if he has to settle for a one-year deal or an annual salary under $3 million.

Looks like Castro is going to stay with the Mets. Bummer.

[BigRapidsJackass]

Hmm, if that's the going rate for a LoDuca we should steer clear.

Of course, the RMN lists a couple other options: Barrett and Jason Kendall (you've got him at a projected .215 ABR!), so maybe I should be careful what I wish for.

So let me put it this way: gun to your head, one year contract, all other things being equal, would you prefer:

Yorvit
Barrett
LoDuca
Kendall

I think we'll all agree that Kendall is a distant #4. Other than that, I'd go:

1. LoDuca
2. Yorvit
3. Barrett

Why?

Well, I have nothing to prove this, but my assumption would be that the old guys (LoDuca) are more likely to have (I'll use a Roxpertish term) a higher "beta" -- greater volatility from year-to-year. Even assuming your projection system for old guys is correct and that LoDuca and Torrealba project essentially the same next year, I have a hunch that the old guys' mean of .230 is more likely to be obtained through some wild fluctuations:
.270, .210, .260, .220, etc. Meanwhile, if there's ever been a player as steady as Torrealba I've yet to meet him. So his class of .230 guys will find their mean through a series of seasons like: .225, .235, .226, .234.

And since I've got Iannetta, who appears to be a perfectly legitimate candidate to give you decent defense and at least a .230 ABR himself, I'm gonna roll the dice and go for the riskier, higher-upside investment.

Meanwhile, Barrett is so bad defensively that I don't want him catching even 40 games. He's also a jerk, but so are the guys he's been in fights with, so maybe he's the lesser jerk. I see similar volatility coming from him. It wouldn't shock me if he was a .270 ABR guy with 22 HRs next year, and it wouldn't shock me if he turns out to be a .210 ABR guy with a 4% CS rate next year -- the very definition of useless.

So my standard is: (1) at least decent defense is a non-negotiable; (2) if you've got (1), try to get the higher upside offensive player.

[Roxpert]

It's depressing reading all this. Let's hope we can make a trade instead for a catcher such as Gerry Laird of the Rangers. That may make the most sense.

[GerryInCS]

Mets sign Torrealba to a three year, $14.4 million deal. Whatever Omar Minaya is smoking I want some. anything that can blur reality to that extent must be one awesome high. I like Yorvit, especially how he handled the young pitchers at the end of the season, but at 4.7/year, he just isn't worth it.

[hiaspire]

A couple of players seem to be available on the trade market which could help fill some potential holes.

For a team that often carries an extra reliever and needs some flexiblity on the bench, I like Ryan Freel who is said to be available (not sure of the price, though). If he was a reasonable acquisition (say for a AAAA type player or two who didn't fit into our long-term picture or have a position here) he could come in and play a lot of second base for you but also give you that guy who could move all over the field when needed. That could be a good pair splitting time with a youngster like Nix, Quintanilla, or Corey Wimberly (who was my pick last year to be a 2B contender in 08 and coming back strong from an injury early last year). That would keep the speed at the top model going with Kaz gone, and Freel can get you .370 OBP as he's done in recent seasons outside of the injuries last year to create run producing opportunties for the big bats.

Although I liked them more a couple of season ago when everyone was a little younger/healthier, I would like to see Lo Duca or Johnny Estrada end up behind the plate here versus some of the other alternatives. Both are capable of hitting around .300 (and have in recent seasons) and putting the ball in play more than a typical catcher in our spacious Coors Field. Either would be good candidates for a batting average boost from last year towards .300 here IMO. Those only looking at numbers miss the role YT had on the team last year on the field, and I wouldn't mind him back either if he'd have to take a more reasonable deal to stay.

[BigRapidsJackass]

Aspire, I'll shock you by agreeing that Yorvit did bring certain "intangibles" to the fold. This is a club without a lot of enthusiastic guys, and Spilly and Yorvit were the primary exceptions. I'd like to have him back, and I'd like to see him catch about 1/3 of the time, but I could live with him catching even more.

Which is exactly why I don't want Estrada around. Read anything about him from anywhere, and one word comes to mind: jerk. In letting him go, Melvin made a telling comment about wanting someone with a "higher energy level." I guess I would take the chance on him if I were confident he could still hit (we know how bad he is defensively), but I'm not. LoDuca? Yeah, I'm still o.k. with him as a backup, but I think he'll get starter money somewhere, so I would steer clear.

Freel is a nice idea. I think Incredible Rox had advocated going after him a couple years ago as a stopgap CFer. I'm not sure how he is defensively at 2B these days, but he certainly can (or should I say "certainly used to?") run well and play a variety of positions. If the price is right, I'd like that move.

[Roxpert]

Jackass, who said Estrada is even in play anymore? He isn't. In case you missed this yesterday......

ESPN - Mets get catcher Estrada from Brewers - MLB

And, to add to this, Jason Kendall is also off the table....

ESPN - Catcher Kendall agrees to contract with Brewers - MLB

So, our choices will come down to Torrealba, LoDuca, or a trade for a backup like Gerry Laird. I hope Iannetta gets 2/3 of the starts, so I don't think LoDuca is the right choice since Hurdle would feel compelled to give him 100 starts no matter what. We don't need anything more than a good veteran backup receiver for 2008.

[Heltonfan]

Estrada might not be entirely off the table... I could see the Mets non-tendering him (in which case the point of the trade, from their perspective, would simply have been to unload Mota's contract). But he's a worse hitter and fielder than Yorvit. I wouldn't touch him.

Count me in as someone else who likes the Freel idea. I wouldn't trust him as an everyday player - his bat is too big of a question mark for that - but he's a great guy to have on the bench.

[Heltonfan]

The details on Jason Kendall's contract with the Brewers:

Jason Kendall is guaranteed $4.25 million under the terms of his deal with the Brewers.
Kendall can earn an additional $1 million in performance bonuses next year: $100,000 for 110 games, $150,000 each for 120 and 130 games, $150,000 for 100 starts, $200,000 for 115 starts and $250,000 for 130 starts. His club option for 2009 would become guaranteed at $4.25 million if Kendall starts 110 games next year, $4.35 million if he starts 120 games and $4.6 million if he starts 130 games. Any 2008 performance bonuses that he earns based on games -- but not starts -- would be added to his 2009 base salary.

So, given that they're bringing him in with the intention of making him the regular catcher, this is basically a 2-year, $9 million deal (unless they get lucky and he gets injured). All this for a guy who is a full win per year worse than Lo Duca or Yorvit.

Bottom line here, if we do bring Yorvit back, we're not going to like the terms one bit.

[BigRapidsJackass]

Dan Serafini, we hardly knew ye ...

... actually, check out today's RMN. Serafini:

1. Has an excuse for testing positive for PEDs ... Japanese docs gave him stuff that was apparently allowed in Japan!

2. Apparently has also been handed some pretty heavy duty psychedelics by that Japanese doc. Although he'll be serving a 50 game suspension, he hopes that the Rockies might be willing to re-sign him.

So far, I can think of exactly one player who hasn't had an excuse for getting caught: Matt Lawton. He said he had some injuries, he was getting older, and he tried to do something to get back in the game; it didn't work, he got caught, he said he felt ashamed, and he walked away.

Matt Lawton, here's to you, buddy ...

[BigRapidsJackass]

Torrealba back, 2 years, at about $7.75 million total.

I'm o.k. with that. Struck me as a bit of an overpay, but since it's less than Jason Kendall got (!) I guess I'm wrong. The problem here isn't that this is a horrible contract; it isn't. The problem is that Iannetta is a good in-house/cheap solution, and we don't have one of those for some of the other holes we need to fill -- 2B in particular. But still, this is far from a crippling contract and Yorvit's a nice guy to have around.

Matt Herges, 1 year, approx. $2.5 million.

O.K., now we're in HAVE YOU LOST YOUR FRICKIN' MIND, DAN territory. After Herges' nice run last year, I was thinking that it wouldn't be so bad to offer this classic NRI-type guy a Tom Martin type deal. 1 year, $800,000, club option with $200,000 buyout, something like that. You're still committing at least a million bucks to a guy who could very well resemble the Tom Martin of 2007, but hey, no free agent (not even a 37-year old who was almost out of baseball entirely last spring) comes cheap anymore.

But $2.5 million? I mean, I don't even think the Bob Wickmans of the world -- guys who were actually pretty decent at one point not so long ago -- will get that much this winter.

[hiaspire]

Originally Posted by BigRapidsJackass

The problem is that Iannetta is a good in-house/cheap solution, and we don't have one of those for some of the other holes we need to fill -- 2B in particular. But still, this is far from a crippling contract and Yorvit's a nice guy to have around.

On a radio interview yesterday, DOD sounded like they were really committed to giving Ian Stewart and Jeff Baker every opportunity to compete for the job there and get another bat in the lineup with Tulo moving to #2 permanently and the improved 2B power hitting behind Hawpe. He also felt comfortable with the depth they have in the system at that spot if that didn't work out.

I would be skeptical there with the position switch until they obviously proved themselves otherwise, and it does seem very late in the game to be doing that with either guy, but apparently the Rox were pretty impressed with Stewart's athleticism there in the early going and thinks they can both size down a little and give the team more firepower by finding a spot for another bat.

I wonder how it will all work out with Stewart's value. At one point a couple of years ago, he was one of the more highly valued prospect possessions. If it works out that's great, but if not I'm not sure what they'll do there other than just let him turn into a AAAA type guy who can't find a spot with the big club and wouldn't fetch the same kind of trade value as he once did. I'd love for him to live up to his potential this year and make a big splash to help the Rox stay near the top of the division and challenge for playoff excitement again.

The defense was a pretty important part of the team last year, and you have to wonder about the impact there with someone playing out of position at an area where defense is usually a big part of the job requirement. They may be hoping to eventually get themselves something similar to a Jeff Kent type, though, where the bat helps make up for it in his prime.

I don't mind giving Herges a little more for a 1 year deal. He earned some reward in helping stabilize the bullpen last year, and it isn't any kind of long-term commitment that can blow up on them like so many others have. Relievers are unpredictable anyway and he's got some bigger questionmarks, but I think most fans cheering them on in the playoffs wanted to see him back after last year's performance.