Some thoughts - Page 2

rockieprogress · 10-29-2007, 10:36 AM

HF, MLE's didn't portend success for Jimenez.
Didn't Stewart win MVP of Spring Training 2 years ago? Some players just succeed when placed in the environment they feel they belong in.

wolf, doesn't Holliday have 1 more year being arb eligible? What do you think the PR hit will be if he's allowed to walk away uncompensated? Or how about if he's traded at the deadline by a team that is just hanging on in the division?
If Boras won't talk to the FO about a longterm contract, one of those two options is going to become reality.

Trading JJ was a PR problem last year. Did the "fans" care when the Rockies started winning? Not that I could see. The fans want a winner in Colorado, and if the Rockies win, they'll come running back. The fans need open and honest information into the workings of the business of a MLB organization. How the entire organization, from rookie ball to the Majors, works is a big mystery to most of the "fans" I talk to. Last night, I had someone tell me that Atkins is a GREAT 3B and needs to be resigned at whatever the cost.
As I tried to explain to him that Atkins is a substandard range limited fielder, his reply was "BS, the Rockies have the best defense in the Majors, and since Atkins is a part of the defense, he's a lot better than people think".
He also went on to say the same thing about Hawpe...

If Holliday is re-signed, and the pitching staff is reworked, can the Rockies afford to keep a defensive liability?

John Cocktoston · 10-29-2007, 11:18 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rockieprogress

wolf, doesn't Holliday have 1 more year being arb eligible? What do you think the PR hit will be if he's allowed to walk away uncompensated? Or how about if he's traded at the deadline by a team that is just hanging on in the division? If Boras won't talk to the FO about a longterm contract, one of those two options is going to become reality.

Holliday has two more arbitration years; 2008 and 2009. He wouldn't be a free agent until 2010. Realistically, he will be a free agent unless he overrides his agent and tells him to get the best deal he can get, but that he and his family want to stay in Denver.

Quote:

Originally Posted by rockieprogress

Trading JJ was a PR problem last year. Did the "fans" care when the Rockies started winning? Not that I could see. The fans want a winner in Colorado, and if the Rockies win, they'll come running back. The fans need open and honest information into the workings of the business of a MLB organization. How the entire organization, from rookie ball to the Majors, works is a big mystery to most of the "fans" I talk to. Last night, I had someone tell me that Atkins is a GREAT 3B and needs to be resigned at whatever the cost.

As I tried to explain to him that Atkins is a substandard range limited fielder, his reply was "BS, the Rockies have the best defense in the Majors, and since Atkins is a part of the defense, he's a lot better than people think". He also went on to say the same thing about Hawpe.

Hawpe had a terrible series, but is a better player than Atkins (who is himself a very good player). Atkins is simply not a third baseman. If you like his bat, and really what's not to like, then you have to find a way to get it in the lineup. But he kills you over the course of a season at 3B.

The whole issue with Atkins boils down to two questions: (1) what happens at 1st base with Helton and (2) is Stewart ready?

If there's no opportunity to do anything at 1st, then Atkins has to be at 3B. So then it's a question of whether or not he's your best option (albeit an imperfect one) at 3B. If he is, then you play him there and live with it. If he isn't, and that means Stewart is ready, then you try to deal him.

Roxpert · 10-29-2007, 11:42 AM

Thoughts coming so freshly after the end of a disappointing World Series are not always easy. On the one hand, we have been beneficiaries of a surprising and historic run to the World Series, and the most successful Rockies team in history. On the other hand, we've witnessed that the Rockies aren't in the same class as the Red Sox.....not even close. But who in the NL is?

In the end, my thoughts are that the Rockies overachieved all 2007 expectations (except for a few optimists, one or two of which post here). This sets us up for heightened expectations for 2008 which are likely not to be met. The Rockies will be picked by many to win the NL West next season, and will be one of the Las Vegas favorites to win the NL. I wouldn't make that bet.

This is not to say that the team hasn't grown up, shown character, and thrilled its fans. They have. In fact, they should have a winning record next season, given their maturation as a team and the confidence that a trip to the World Series can give a team. The 85 wins projection that Heltonfan just presented sounds about right at this early stage, but it's a fools game to make predictions this early in the offseason.

So those are my general thoughts. Specifically, I think the Rockies have to focus on the following:

1. Keep the bullpen strong. This is the key to any successful Rockies season in history. Corpas is a young anchor to the 'pen. Fuentes is aging before our eyes and should be dealt. However, we need a shutdown 8th inning guy and don't have one on the roster at this time. Maybe Casey Weathers will be that guy by midseason, but I think we have to focus on finding that guy this offseason via trade. Guys like Chad Cordero and Eric Gagne should be given strong consideration.

2. Decide on what to do with CF, 2B, and C. We probably will keep Taveras because he's not expensive, but we should play Spilly more and give Seth Smith a shot. Too bad we couldn't trade for Ellsbury last offseason as he looks like the real deal. I have little to no confidence in Dexter Fowler, even long-term, here. With 2B, I'd bring back Matsui on a two-year deal if he can be had at a reasonable price ($5 mil/year). He'd be the bridge to Chris Nelson. For catcher, I would insist that Iannetta have the pole position for the starting job, and look to only pay "backup money" for the second catcher, which means that Torrealba may not be affordable to keep.

3. Forget about trading Helton. He isn't worth his contract, but there won't be any takers that will help us. Todd still has value as a #2 hitter and gold-glove quality 1st baseman. Keep him and make him a table setter.

4. Bring in another veteran SP not named Fogg. Josh will cash in on his postseason exposure as some team will overpay for him. Tomko makes sense. So does Shawn Chacon.

In short, bring this team back largely intact, but try to inject more talent into the pitching staff. The key to our postseason run was a league-leading team ERA in the 2nd half. If we can keep team ERA around 4.30 to 4.50, we will stay competitive given that we don't beat ourselves on defense and have enough hitting to get by. Just don't expect a repeat of this year's "dream".

Heltonfan · 10-29-2007, 03:44 PM

Quote:

HF, MLE's didn't portend success for Jimenez.

Let me know when you've figured out a way to systematically identify guys who beat their MLEs, and we'll have something to discuss. Until then, for every Ubaldo you find, I can find a counterexample. The MLE factors are what they are because they work.

Quote:

The 85 wins projection that Heltonfan just presented sounds about right at this early stage, but it's a fools game to make predictions this early in the offseason.

Well, sure. Don't think of it as a prediction, think of it as an assessment of where the teams currently stand. And in that sense, it's extremely useful information.

Quote:

Guys like Chad Cordero and Eric Gagne should be given strong consideration.

"Guys like Chad Cordero and Eric Gagne"? Aside from being right-handed closers, those two have absolutely nothing in common. Cordero is a league-average pitcher who's been riding situational luck to fame. Stay away.

I think our shutdown 8th-inning guy might turn out to be Ramon Ramirez. But I'd still target Gagne, Kerry Wood, and, if he decides to play another year, Troy Percival. Another option might be to try to acquire Mike Wuertz from the Cubs... he's more or less flown under the radar, but he's put up some impressive numbers over the past few years. And I'd love to pry Edwar Ramirez away from the Yankees if possible.

I wouldn't touch Chacon with a 10-foot pole. Working out of the bullpen this year, he had a 4.30 ERC... that works out to around 5.00 as a starter. He actually projects worse than Morales, and you know what I think of Morales's immediate future.

Re: backup catcher: the guy to target is Ramon Castro. He really should be playing everyday somewhere (unlike Torrealba), but he seems to have been pigeonholed as a backup to the point that it should deflate his price tag.

I'd add Joe Kennedy to the list of veteran SP possibilities. He's bound to come cheap after being repeatedly DFAd this year, and he's still a serviceable #4 or 5 starter.

Quote:

Trade Atkins and Fuentes for a #2 SP if possible. I would add Baker and Barmes as throw-ins if needed.

The Yankees could use both Atkins and Fuentes. We'd have to give them at least one more quality player in the deal (Buchholz?), but we could make a run at Phil Hughes. That would be a lot of fun.

wolf213 · 10-29-2007, 04:16 PM

Just throwing a name out... what about Fukudome for CF?

John Cocktoston · 10-29-2007, 04:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by wolf213

Just throwing a name out... what about Fukudome for CF?

Hey, watch your mouth!

Heltonfan · 10-29-2007, 04:52 PM

Fukudome's probably out of our price range. But I'd love to have him. Treating Japanese ball as AAA-quality, which of course is probably too harsh, he comes out with a .311 ABR projection. That would make him the best offensive CF in the game. Even if he's a train wreck defensively, he's still the best player available in free agency this year at any position.

bedir than average · 10-29-2007, 06:01 PM

Most of the parks there are smaller, and so there are some questions as to whether his range will be decent for CF in MLB. I think those are particularly strong concerning parks like Coors, SafeCo, Comerica.

Also he had elbow issues, my memory says it was his throwing arm. From what I've been hearing he's most likely to be a good defensive corner OF and the strength of the arm is what will determine LF or RF.

Heltonfan · 10-30-2007, 12:51 AM

This is where it's important to remember that what outfield position a guy plays doesn't really matter. Say Fukudome is an average defensive corner outfielder. That would probably make him around a -7 in CF... but he'd make up that seven runs, or at least most of it, because the replacement level for CF hitting is lower than the replacement level for LF/RF.

Newman · 10-31-2007, 08:17 AM

Huh? We need a superior CF to cover the huge acreage in Coors Field. You just can't throw anyone in CF, otherwise we'd put Holliday there.

Is Seth Smith an OF. Could he play CF at Coors? He's a QB just like Holliday. I don't see a position for him next season unless he can play in the middle, being a lefty hitter. Spilly went downhill in Rocktober. I don't like Willy anymore. I'd love for us to upgrade in CF.

Am no longer thinking of Hawpe as a platoon player.

Would like to see Helton lead off, like Wade Boggs next season. Loved the comparison of Youkilis batting second, another slow white guy. Boston doesn't worry about Youk clogging up the bases and neither should we. Would love to see a foot race between Youk and Helton. Could time that with a sundial.

BigRapidsJackass · 10-31-2007, 10:22 AM

Quote:

Could time that with a sundial.

Good one, Newman. Never heard that before!

I think HF's point is a an extra run scored = an extra run saved. Who wouldn't want an offensive force in CF who also happens to be great defensively? Yeah, that's not gonna happen. So you simply try to maximize production. I've always liked Seth Smith more than most. If he can play a decent CF, I think he's got a real future. If not, he'll have to develop a lot more power before he can think about supplanting Holliday or Hawpe.

rockieprogress · 10-31-2007, 11:05 AM

HF, when the Yankees said they weren't interested in resigning A-Rod, my first inclination was that the team should explore trading Atkins to them.
He could play 3B until they get someone better, and then switch to DH or 1B.

My first impression of the sons of George though, is that they want to stop all the spend, spend, spend, that's been going on in that franchise, and get back to developing talent with a farm system.

It seems that a lot of people want to keep Atkins based on his bat. His defense however seems to be getting worse each year. So what will it be next year?

Roxpert, are you saying that Helton is now Mark Grace? Not all together a bad thing IMO.
Shawn Chacon? I'll take HF's 10ft pole, and raise it another 5ft... NO WAY would I add him to rotation or BP.

Xitdax8 · 10-31-2007, 03:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rockieprogress

HF, when the Yankees said they weren't interested in resigning A-Rod, my first inclination was that the team should explore trading Atkins to them.
He could play 3B until they get someone better, and then switch to DH or 1B.

My first impression of the sons of George though, is that they want to stop all the spend, spend, spend, that's been going on in that franchise, and get back to developing talent with a farm system.

It seems that a lot of people want to keep Atkins based on his bat. His defense however seems to be getting worse each year. So what will it be next year?

Roxpert, are you saying that Helton is now Mark Grace? Not all together a bad thing IMO.
Shawn Chacon? I'll take HF's 10ft pole, and raise it another 5ft... NO WAY would I add him to rotation or BP.

Atkins' defense getting worse every year? That, my friend, is not true at all. In fact, Atkins' fielding percentage has gone up every single year.

2005: .950
2006: .953
2007: .964

He has easily improved his defense. Have you even watched him through the years? He looks much better than in his rookie season, a lot more comfortable.

In the playoffs, he was magnificent. Tough hops, diving plays, I myself was saying: "Wow, Atkins just did that?". A lot of people bag on Atkins and his defense, but in my opinion the guy is making some big strides and is getting the job done.

Roxpert · 10-31-2007, 03:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Xitdax8

Atkins' defense getting worse every year? That, my friend, is not true at all. In fact, Atkins' fielding percentage has gone up every single year.

2005: .950
2006: .953
2007: .964

He has easily improved his defense. Have you even watched him through the years? He looks much better than in his rookie season, a lot more comfortable.

In the playoffs, he was magnificent. Tough hops, diving plays, I myself was saying: "Wow, Atkins just did that?". A lot of people bag on Atkins and his defense, but in my opinion the guy is making some big strides and is getting the job done.

May I interject here? Defense should not be solely measured on fielding percentage. It tells you nothing about range or whether the player is getting to and making plays on balls in his zone.

Here are Atkins' range factors and zone ratings as a 3rd baseman the past three seasons:

2005: 2.63, .808
2006: 2.50, .770
2007: 2.29, .722

See a trend there? Atkins appears to be making fewer plays, perhaps some of that intentional (he has Tulo to field balls in the hole and may give up on those plays to give him the chance). However, I surely see no improvement in his defensive numbers from his rookie season other than his avoidance of errors, and some of that may be from the more generous scorekeeping decisions we are seeing each year throughout baseball.

From my own eyes, it appears Atkins is more sure-handed on balls hit right at him, or in front of him, but has more trouble to his left or right. His foot speed may have slowed, possibly a result of gaining some bulk in efforts to be more of a run producer.

So, I will side with RP, and believe that Atkins is adequate defensively, but far from a top fielder at the position. He's basically a 1st baseman playing 3rd base, and is doing the best job he can. As a former UCLA Bruin, I like him, but think defense is not his strong suit.

Roxpert · 10-31-2007, 03:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rockieprogress

Roxpert, are you saying that Helton is now Mark Grace? Not all together a bad thing IMO.
Shawn Chacon? I'll take HF's 10ft pole, and raise it another 5ft... NO WAY would I add him to rotation or BP.

Helton is turning into JT Snow, or Mark Grace. Take your pick. I also think you could compare him to John Olerud, Keith Hernandez, or Sean Casey. Hal Morris in his prime wasn't far different than the current version of Helton either.

Yeah, Chacon probably isn't our "best" option for creating bullpen or rotation depth. However, assuming we are seeking a veteran to replace Fogg for such "swingman" depth, Chacon has to be included in the conversation.

As to the CF discussion, I think we've gone the route of having an offensive CFer in the past with decent results, whether it was Ellis Burks, Preston Wilson, or even Jeromy Burnitz. None of them were ideally suited to play CF, but offset whatever limits they had defensively with productive offensive seasons. I'd not mind a bit if we go that route again in the future.

10-29-2007, 06:01 PM	#23 (permalink)
bedir than average Administrator Join Date: Nov 2006 Location: Starbucks Posts: 8,256	Most of the parks there are smaller, and so there are some questions as to whether his range will be decent for CF in MLB. I think those are particularly strong concerning parks like Coors, SafeCo, Comerica. Also he had elbow issues, my memory says it was his throwing arm. From what I've been hearing he's most likely to be a good defensive corner OF and the strength of the arm is what will determine LF or RF. __________________ US Men's National Team World Cup Qualifying \| Democracy in Sports Meets My First Campaign "You're only so sure you're right because they're so sure you're wrong." Orson Scott Card in Xenocide

10-29-2007, 10:36 AM	#16 (permalink)
rockieprogress Member Join Date: Nov 2006 Location: aurora Posts: 183	HF, MLE's didn't portend success for Jimenez. Didn't Stewart win MVP of Spring Training 2 years ago? Some players just succeed when placed in the environment they feel they belong in. wolf, doesn't Holliday have 1 more year being arb eligible? What do you think the PR hit will be if he's allowed to walk away uncompensated? Or how about if he's traded at the deadline by a team that is just hanging on in the division? If Boras won't talk to the FO about a longterm contract, one of those two options is going to become reality. Trading JJ was a PR problem last year. Did the "fans" care when the Rockies started winning? Not that I could see. The fans want a winner in Colorado, and if the Rockies win, they'll come running back. The fans need open and honest information into the workings of the business of a MLB organization. How the entire organization, from rookie ball to the Majors, works is a big mystery to most of the "fans" I talk to. Last night, I had someone tell me that Atkins is a GREAT 3B and needs to be resigned at whatever the cost. As I tried to explain to him that Atkins is a substandard range limited fielder, his reply was "BS, the Rockies have the best defense in the Majors, and since Atkins is a part of the defense, he's a lot better than people think". He also went on to say the same thing about Hawpe... If Holliday is re-signed, and the pitching staff is reworked, can the Rockies afford to keep a defensive liability?

10-29-2007, 11:42 AM	#18 (permalink)
Roxpert Veteran Member Join Date: Nov 2006 Location: Denver Posts: 1,059	Thoughts coming so freshly after the end of a disappointing World Series are not always easy. On the one hand, we have been beneficiaries of a surprising and historic run to the World Series, and the most successful Rockies team in history. On the other hand, we've witnessed that the Rockies aren't in the same class as the Red Sox.....not even close. But who in the NL is? In the end, my thoughts are that the Rockies overachieved all 2007 expectations (except for a few optimists, one or two of which post here). This sets us up for heightened expectations for 2008 which are likely not to be met. The Rockies will be picked by many to win the NL West next season, and will be one of the Las Vegas favorites to win the NL. I wouldn't make that bet. This is not to say that the team hasn't grown up, shown character, and thrilled its fans. They have. In fact, they should have a winning record next season, given their maturation as a team and the confidence that a trip to the World Series can give a team. The 85 wins projection that Heltonfan just presented sounds about right at this early stage, but it's a fools game to make predictions this early in the offseason. So those are my general thoughts. Specifically, I think the Rockies have to focus on the following: 1. Keep the bullpen strong. This is the key to any successful Rockies season in history. Corpas is a young anchor to the 'pen. Fuentes is aging before our eyes and should be dealt. However, we need a shutdown 8th inning guy and don't have one on the roster at this time. Maybe Casey Weathers will be that guy by midseason, but I think we have to focus on finding that guy this offseason via trade. Guys like Chad Cordero and Eric Gagne should be given strong consideration. 2. Decide on what to do with CF, 2B, and C. We probably will keep Taveras because he's not expensive, but we should play Spilly more and give Seth Smith a shot. Too bad we couldn't trade for Ellsbury last offseason as he looks like the real deal. I have little to no confidence in Dexter Fowler, even long-term, here. With 2B, I'd bring back Matsui on a two-year deal if he can be had at a reasonable price ($5 mil/year). He'd be the bridge to Chris Nelson. For catcher, I would insist that Iannetta have the pole position for the starting job, and look to only pay "backup money" for the second catcher, which means that Torrealba may not be affordable to keep. 3. Forget about trading Helton. He isn't worth his contract, but there won't be any takers that will help us. Todd still has value as a #2 hitter and gold-glove quality 1st baseman. Keep him and make him a table setter. 4. Bring in another veteran SP not named Fogg. Josh will cash in on his postseason exposure as some team will overpay for him. Tomko makes sense. So does Shawn Chacon. In short, bring this team back largely intact, but try to inject more talent into the pitching staff. The key to our postseason run was a league-leading team ERA in the 2nd half. If we can keep team ERA around 4.30 to 4.50, we will stay competitive given that we don't beat ourselves on defense and have enough hitting to get by. Just don't expect a repeat of this year's "dream".

10-29-2007, 04:16 PM	#20 (permalink)
wolf213 Member Join Date: Nov 2006 Location: Thornton Co Posts: 194	Just throwing a name out... what about Fukudome for CF?

10-29-2007, 04:52 PM	#22 (permalink)
Heltonfan Moderator Join Date: Nov 2006 Location: Yerevan, Armenia Posts: 855	Fukudome's probably out of our price range. But I'd love to have him. Treating Japanese ball as AAA-quality, which of course is probably too harsh, he comes out with a .311 ABR projection. That would make him the best offensive CF in the game. Even if he's a train wreck defensively, he's still the best player available in free agency this year at any position.

10-30-2007, 12:51 AM	#24 (permalink)
Heltonfan Moderator Join Date: Nov 2006 Location: Yerevan, Armenia Posts: 855	This is where it's important to remember that what outfield position a guy plays doesn't really matter. Say Fukudome is an average defensive corner outfielder. That would probably make him around a -7 in CF... but he'd make up that seven runs, or at least most of it, because the replacement level for CF hitting is lower than the replacement level for LF/RF.

10-31-2007, 08:17 AM	#25 (permalink)
Newman Veteran Member Join Date: Dec 2006 Location: Aurora Posts: 553	Huh? We need a superior CF to cover the huge acreage in Coors Field. You just can't throw anyone in CF, otherwise we'd put Holliday there. Is Seth Smith an OF. Could he play CF at Coors? He's a QB just like Holliday. I don't see a position for him next season unless he can play in the middle, being a lefty hitter. Spilly went downhill in Rocktober. I don't like Willy anymore. I'd love for us to upgrade in CF. Am no longer thinking of Hawpe as a platoon player. Would like to see Helton lead off, like Wade Boggs next season. Loved the comparison of Youkilis batting second, another slow white guy. Boston doesn't worry about Youk clogging up the bases and neither should we. Would love to see a foot race between Youk and Helton. Could time that with a sundial.

10-31-2007, 11:05 AM	#27 (permalink)
rockieprogress Member Join Date: Nov 2006 Location: aurora Posts: 183	HF, when the Yankees said they weren't interested in resigning A-Rod, my first inclination was that the team should explore trading Atkins to them. He could play 3B until they get someone better, and then switch to DH or 1B. My first impression of the sons of George though, is that they want to stop all the spend, spend, spend, that's been going on in that franchise, and get back to developing talent with a farm system. It seems that a lot of people want to keep Atkins based on his bat. His defense however seems to be getting worse each year. So what will it be next year? Roxpert, are you saying that Helton is now Mark Grace? Not all together a bad thing IMO. Shawn Chacon? I'll take HF's 10ft pole, and raise it another 5ft... NO WAY would I add him to rotation or BP.