Hurdle, Baseball's New Genius?

[BigRapidsJackass]

I've noticed a few glowing reports on Hurdle's managerial skills. For example, check out:

Baseball Musings

FOX Sports on MSN - MLB - Hurdle making the right moves for Rockies

The latter story isn't a surprise, since it's by Ringolsby.

And I agree with one point in Ringolsby's article:

Hurdle, meanwhile, came out in style, just like he did in Game 2 when after three innings of inconsistency from rookie left-hander Franklin Morales, the manager decided to bring in potential Game 4 starter Josh Fogg. Not only did Seth Smith, who hit for Morales, get the single that loaded the bases for Kazuo Matsui's grand slam, which sent the Rockies on their way to a 10-5 win, but Fogg brought the game under control, pitching two shutout innings.

The ultra-quick hook is the thing that's distinguished Hurdle's managerial style during this incredible winning streak. It's smart, and it's worked. As Aspire would tell us, he's recognized that managing in the playoffs (or in the every game is a must win situation of the playoff run) is different. He's adapted. Charlie Manuel didn't -- he absolutely had to win Game 3, yet there was his best reliever, Brett Myers, out in the bullpen as Jeff Baker put the ball in play and got us the win.

But here's a real headscratcher, and I'm just not buying the after-the-fact explanation:

And never was Hurdle able to maneuver to benefit the Rockies better than he did in Game 3.

With the score tied at one in the top of the eighth, he brought in left-handed reliever Brian Fuentes, and double-switched him with center fielder Cory Sullivan. Some were puzzled. That meant Fuentes was in the No. 7 spot in the lineup — which was the fifth scheduled hitter in the bottom of the eight — with Sullivan in the No. 9 slot, the seventh scheduled hitter.

That was the plan.

Philadelphia only had one left-hander in its bullpen — Romero. Had Hurdle made a straight substitution of Sullivan for Ryan Spilborghs in center field, he would have had left-handed hitters in three of four slots in the lineup. By dropping Sullivan to ninth, he left himself flexibility when Fuentes' spot in the order came up. It paid off.

With one out in the eighth, Romero came on to face Todd Helton, and got him to fly out. After Garret Atkins singled, left-handed hitter Brad Hawpe singled. Then, instead of lefty Sullivan coming up, Hurdle was able to counter with the right-handed bat of Baker.

So let me get this story straight. Top 8, game tied, Hurdle double-switches, bringing in Fuentes and Sullivan. You know Romero will be facing Hawpe no matter what else happens. Charlie Manuel isn't that dumb. So Hurdle could have:

1. Brought in Fuentes, kept Spilly in CF, and had Spilly stay in the 7 hole and Fuentes in the 9 hole.

2. Double-switched (as he did), weirdly moving Fuentes up to the 7 hole.

So ... Hurdle was a "genius" because he pulled his RH hitting centerfielder -- the guy who eats up lefties, the guy who had supplanted Baker as his #1 RH pinch hitter, because Hurdle then knew that he could bring Baker in to pinch hit in Spilborghs slot, and that Charlie would be so stupid that he wouldn't bring in Brett Myers to face Baker? Is that the theory here?

Plus, assume the Rox had not scored in the bottom of the 8th. Assume Baker had grounded out. By moving Fuentes up to the #7 hole, you were forced to pinch hit for him. Everyone knew that if Ryan Howard didn't come up in the 8th he'd be leading off the 9th. Wouldn't you kind of like to have Fuentes available to pitch to Howard?

All in all, I'm not buying the "Hurdle is a chess master who always thinks three moves ahead" thoery. Cause it sure seems to me that this was an inexplicable double-switch happy manager's brain fart that -- remarkably -- turned out well for the club.

[Roxpert]

Hurdle can do no wrong right now, even when he does wrong. As the Phildelphia Inquirer's Pat Sheridan wrote here....

Phil Sheridan | Put blame on players, not Manuel | Philadelphia Inquirer | 10/05/2007

In both games here, Colorado Rockies manager Clint Hurdle allowed his pitcher to bat with runners on base, then removed that pitcher for the bottom of the inning. That's ridiculous, but no one is second-guessing Hurdle today because his hitters have come up big and his relievers have owned the Phillies.

Give a manager good hitting and pitching, and he can mess up with impunity.

In other words, don't confuse "managerial genius" with a team that is as hot as the surface of the sun right now. Hurdle should get credit for promoting an environment which allowed the team to get hot at the right time, but his tactics still are strange.

[BigRapidsJackass]

Roxpert, you're right. Hurdle came up with 3 of his most jaw-droppingly stupid moves all year in just this NLDS 3-game set, but because his players outperformed the Phillies he's getting a free pass. Heck, not just a "free pass;" he's getting called a master game tactician!

Aspire, you usually come up with a defense of Hurdle's moves. I understand the explanation for letting Francis hit in Game 1: he wanted to do the "slug-bunt" thing, and he thought Francis was the most likely guy to execute it. (I'm not buying that explanation by the way ... I think he just changed his mind and decided Francis was losing it. Which would be a perfectly good explanation -- "I thought the Phillies hitters were starting to catch up with Francis' change of speeds, etc, and my bullpen coach told me Hawkins looked great in the pen warming up, so I changed my mind." But Clint shoveled the bull instead.)

But again, last night. Thinking ahead to the bottom of the 8th (which is presumably what Hurdle was doing by double switching), doesn't everyone agree that:

If the Rockies mounted a rally, and the #7 hitter was due up in an RBI situation, we would prefer these hitter-pitcher matchups in this rank order (again, assuming the obvious, that Manuel would bring in Romero to face Hawpe):

1. Spilborghs vs. Romero
2. Spilborghs vs. Myers
3. Baker vs. Romero
4. Baker vs. Myers

I guess you could argue that (3) is preferable to (2), but certainly everyone would have to agree that (1) is our absolutely most favorable matchup. Yet Hurdle ensured that we wouldn't get it. He also paved the way for the absolute worst matchup (4), but Charlie Manuel out-dumbed him by not going to Myers, just as I predicted he would before the series began.

I guess that's what counts as "genius" among MLB managers: you're demonstrably smarter than Charlie Manuel.

Oh, and by the way don't tell me that Hurdle wanted Sully in there for defensive purposes. In a tie game? He's never done that before, so I can't imagine he suddenly -- with Spilly's spot due up 5th in the bottom of the 8th -- decided to value defense more than offense. By double-switching he also ensured that Fuentes wouldn't be around to face Howard, and he also eliminated the possibility of pinch hitting with Sullivan if Manuel had gone to Myers (for example, he might've preferred Sully vs. Myers over Spilly vs. Myers, although I think that would've been wrong).

Conclusion: Clint did something really stupid, but it worked, and our Hall of Fame writer would rather buy Clint's b.s. than actually sit down and analyze the facts.

[indianadrew]

"Oh, I'm sure there are still plenty who doubt me and that's okay," he said. "They don't doubt those players, though. They don't doubt their heart, desire and ability

say it like it is clint
if we can beat the snakes we will have the MOY, MVP, and ROY.

go rockies

[rockieprogress]

drew, the awards are already decided before the post-season starts.

[indianadrew]

Originally Posted by rockieprogress

drew, the awards are already decided before the post-season starts.

oh, i did not know that. it's a shame that post-season is not taken into consideration.

[Newman]

Drew, I agree with Roxpert and Jackass. We are winning despite Hurdle's blunders. He's no genius. He's just plain dumb lucky.

Not MOY, more like LSOBOY (lucky SOB of the year).

Plus he doesn't know how to chew gum.

He sure does look happy though.

I'm glad he got rid of that "freak flag" under his lower lip.

GO ROCKIES! Is it Thursday yet?

[indianadrew]

thats cool newman. i liked the soul-patch. i am just in shock at how this team is playing so well. i hope the 4 days off just invigorates them and does not kill them.

[rockieprogress]

It made him look dangerous...

[hiaspire]

It's hysterical that people still are calling Hurdle the "Cooler" today despite having one of the hottest teams in the history of baseball post-season. Where's that coolling effect now? It's my nomination for the most inappropriate nickname of the year for this smoking team. At least he is getting the national respect DESERVED for taking this team from inexperienced AAAA players forced into action by payroll reductions to World Series contenders.

Melvin could win the manager of the year award, and Hurdle has looked like the superior manager this series.

Melvin usually has his best bats still waiting on the bench when the game ends, and may have a bit of a mutany on his hands with the ace pitcher and players not too happy with some of the decisions. Hurdle has been calling most of the right shots in getting guys in and out of games, while the D-Backs always seem to be just a step too late. Clint has the confidence of this team, and has all the little things going right from the clubhouse to the field.

All managers can get picked apart. Pay Piniella millions more to come here and he'll pull his ace early in the first game just to see him never pitch again in the series and get swept by these same D-Backs.

Our manager is no different from most in the game. Except that he's never lost a post-season game yet and has this team on a historic role.

He's not a genius. Almost NONE of them are and all can be second-guessed. He's been anything BUT a cooler for this hottest of teams. He's got this team playing right and developed collective attitude that is driving this team beyond any of our expectations.

He probably won't win any awards for it this year with our run being so late, but he and the coaching staff ought to get more than their share of credit for developing these kids into winners.

[BigRapidsJackass]

Aspire, out of the playoff managers, I'd say Hurdle has clearly outperformed Charlie Manuel and Melvin. He's also made a couple blunders, but he's been lucky in that they haven't come back to haunt him.

And you're right -- we've got to retire the nickname The Cooler, at least while we're obviously so hot.

[Roxpert]

Just for the record, I wrote several weeks ago to lay off the Hurdle nicknames, and to show him a modicum of respect during the hot streak. I've stuck to that pledge, and will continue to do so.

[hiaspire]

Originally Posted by BigRapidsJackass

And you're right -- we've got to retire the nickname The Cooler, at least while we're obviously so hot.

It is kind of embarrassing if any other baseball fans check out what Rockies fans are talking about. The Cooler? You've got to be kidding. We couldn't be hotter.

In fact, Cooler is an extremely inappropriate tag in the first place and entirely unfitting. When this team is on a roll, the attitude of a Hurdle clubhouse doesn't put a stop to it. We've had many hot streaks under him, including when he first took over from Buddy Bell and they looked unbeatable for a long stretch. I think they had the best record in baseball the first month he took over with lots of Ws piled up. In the middle years, they could be very streaky at times (both good and bad). When we get rolling now with much improved talent, the attitude around the team is perfect to keep things going. All streaks eventually end, and baseball can be a very streaky game, but Hurdle is pretty laid back and riding the wave.

In terms of game calls, he'll do things that almost all other managers around the game will do. He's not extremely different from most managers there, as we see in this World Series where he's on an equal par or better than most with a team that just won't lose. There is very little difference between most big league managers in terms of decisions, and all of them will have their moments of being second guessed or going with their gut that doesn't work out from time to time.

Most managers are there because of their LEADERSHIP over men, though, and controlling a clubhouse or guiding young players. He's done the job there certainly.

[BigRapidsJackass]

Interesting thoughts from Dave Pinto at Baseball Musings on being a big league manager:

It's a complicated job. There are people management aspects to it (which Torre does well), there are strategy aspects (which Showalter and Davey Johnson do well) and there are development aspects (which Billy Gardner did well). I'd wager there are very few managers who did all three extremely well (maybe Whitey Herzog?). And so, you may need to decide which type of manager you need. If the Yankees keep their vets, a Torre or Mattingly type would be fine. If they're going on a youth movement, Girardi might be a better fit.

Hurdle no doubt deserves credit as a "player development" type of manager. And I'll be the first to admit that I may have been wrong about his importance in that arena. It is not as visible -- at least not initially -- as the strategy/game tactics arena (areas in which Hurdle has, by any account, been no better than average). Likewise, I can't say a whole lot about his "people management" skills, although certainly we've never had any friction in the clubhouse that's gone public. (We had some -- for example, the Fassero incident -- but that's pretty minor.)

Pinto starts out by talking about how Ray Knight had said that being a big league manager is mostly about public relations. I think Hurdle's been pretty crappy in that respect. Maybe winning will turn that around, maybe not.

I like Pinto's point: that sometimes the "best manager" for a team will change over time. I always thought that would be the case with Hurdle -- that at some point the young players would peak at about the same time, expectations would be raised, but the team would fall just short. Then, as is often the case, a new guy would come in and get credit for taking the club over the top. Fortunately, through this incredible run it's happened quicker here than anyone expected (c'mon, admit it: nobody saw this club in this position -- presumptive World Series team -- this soon). But who knows? Regardless of what happens in the next couple weeks, expectations will be sky high (as Heltonfan points out, probably way too high given the talent level on this club) next year, and suddenly everyone may turn on Hurdle. High expectations can be the worst enemy of job security.

[Roxpert]

This IS our "dream season", something I have long thought even the Rockies could have once in a while.

Many years ago, I did a study of teams with "dream seasons" which I defined as seasons out of the norm with the team's recent past that resulted in the playoffs. Teams like the 1987 Twins and Giants, etc. What I looked at was their record the following season. As I recall, I found that the average team fell 9 1/2 games below their "dream season record" in the subsequent season.

Using that average falloff, the Rockies would go 82-80 next season, which would be enough to get Hurdle fired. I'm not hoping for either to occur, but it's something that wouldn't surprise me.