Hurdle, Baseball's New Genius? - Page 2

hiaspire · 10-15-2007, 09:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Roxpert

Using that average falloff, the Rockies would go 82-80 next season, which would be enough to get Hurdle fired. I'm not hoping for either to occur, but it's something that wouldn't surprise me.

At least something to get excited about...

Sure a fall-off is possible. You see it in sports all the time when a team gets the target on their backs or starts to be over-confident or satisfied. And expectations will be higher.

I don't think that's our personality, though. They have already responded well to increased expectations and haven't fallen into any traps you see other teams who surprise early but fade immediately after or run out of steam.

You also see teams who take a big step forward in their rebuilding process and it propells them into the elite of the game. DOD experienced that already in Cleveland when his upstart Indians started to surprise some teams and make a name for themselves before going on that long run of consecutive playoffs. There is a lot of that kind of team here IMO.

Speaking of something to be excited about... I really hope the game is all Rox fans hope tonight. My wife was in a minor car accident and it's been a bad day overall except for the hope the the Rox can do something incredible tonight.

Let's get this win tonight and celebrate something amazing.

BigRapidsJackass · 10-16-2007, 03:03 AM

I'll say it again: Hurdle outmanaged Melvin. Just a subtle difference here. Melvin sticks with Owings, who is not a bad pitcher and is throwing well. OK, I understand the Seth Smith bloop double. Not his fault. But two men on and Holliday up, your club down by a run? You go with your best. That means Pena-Cruz-Lyon. We haven't touched those guys all series. You try to get 5-6 innings out of Owings on a nice afternoon in June. In October, fighting for your life, you don't let Matt Holliday beat your 6th best pitcher. Not when numbers 1-5 are all available.

Meanwhile, Hurdle again shows he understands the situation. I was wondering if he would stick with Morales in the bottom of the 4th. Two men on, but two outs. Morales was looking pretty solid but for his little moment there where he lost concentration again. But Hurdle seems to realize Morales' limitations, the opportunity to put the D'backs in a hole, and (mostly) the fact that his top 4 bullpen arms are better than Morales right now. So he makes the move, it works, and it paves the way to a World Series.

Hey, but Brandon Webb should be really rested for Game 5!

Funny you should mention the '87 Twins. This team reminds me of that club. A bunch of homegrown players suddenly peaking at the same time: Kirby, Hrbek, Gaetti, Viola, Gagne, Brunansky. A veteran or two: Blyleven, Reardon. Some good role players. A big homefield advantage.

The '88 Twins were actually better, but the ran into an even better crop of young players in the Oakland A's mini-dynasty. I do think this club may be better next year ... so will the D'backs. Should be fun.

Newman · 10-16-2007, 08:48 AM

Come on. Hurdle is Hurdle. He said himself, he basically just stayed out of the way.

He did pinch hit Seth Smith early, and took out Morales early, and everything Hurdle did turned to GOLD! Like Eric Byrnes would say, we were very lucky. Nothing wrong with that.

Was it a brilliant Hurdle move to bat Holliday 3rd, so he could be in position to hit the 3 run bomb? He's been batting 3rd all year long. A 10 year old purist kid would bat Matt 3rd in the lineup (ok, or 4th). Only a stathead 10 year old kid would say the lineup doesn't matter!

World Series bound. Unbelieveablre.

Dante Bichette · 10-16-2007, 11:32 AM

This guy is no longer the cooler. Instead, everything he touches turns to Gold. I want him at my blackjack table.

BigRapidsJackass · 10-16-2007, 12:33 PM

Never missing an opportunity to use an amazing pennant run as a launching pad to settle old scores, our very own Hall of Fame writer Tracy Ringolsby finds a meaning to all of this that may have escaped the ordinary beat writer:

FOX Sports on MSN - MLB - Rockies win with home-grown players

Quote:

When the Yankees were running off four consecutive world championships, there was doom and gloom. Teams became convinced that baseball had fallen victim to the Golden Rule — he who has the gold is going to rule.

Then the simplistic work of "Moneyball" was published, taking a shallow view of the complex approach Billy Beane had taken to having success on a moderate budget in Oakland, and suddenly front offices were being filled with guys wearing pocket protectors.

Now, maybe, the game is going to get back to its roots.

If you think the gratuitous dig at "Moneyball" is a bit out of context here, well, join the club.

Baseball think factory, as usual, explains why Ringolsby has a Lake Erie midge the size of a gekko under his cowboy hat:

Quote:

Michael Lewis (whose name appears as the author on the cover of Beane's book) once made fun of Tracy Ringolsby as the self-appointed, Stetson-wearing head of "baseball's ladies' auxiliary" (i.e. the BBWAA writers). Predictably, Ringolsby has never forgotten it.

Ringolsby then goes on to make a good point: that Hurdle seized the opportunity and sent up a pinch hitter for Morales, while Melvin managed the game like it was an ordinary regular season affair.

At least Ringolsby has moved on to picking on Michael Lewis rather than Billy Beane.

But faithful Ringolsby readers must be wondering: Where's the gratuitious dig at DePodesta? At Ricciardi? C'mon, Cowboy, you're losing your touch!

BigRapidsJackass · 10-16-2007, 02:46 PM

In the category of, "If you say it enough times people will think that it's true," respected analyst/blogger David Pinto repeats the Hurdle Myth (www. baseballmusings.com):

Quote:

I've been impressed with two strategic moves he made. The unusual double switch he pulled against the Phillies and pinch hitting for Morales last night. Most managerial strategy actually involves automatic moves, like having the pitcher sacrifice or pinch hitting for a reliever late in the game. But both these moves required Hurdle to be thinking ahead and weighing potential positive and negative outcomes. In other words, Hurdle was displaying real strategy rather than going by some unwritten book. That's nice to see.

I am impressed with the quick hook on Morales in favor of a pinch hitter. I have not doubt guys like Melvin and Manuel would've been tied to the idea of "let's get 5 out of our starter if he's going well."

But that thing about the double switch in Philly is just ridiculous, for reasons I've explained before. Yet the new Myth of Hurdle is so powerful that even an obvious blunder is presented, unthinkingly, as evidence of his genius.

Ah, winning is a wonderful thing ...

Roxpert · 10-16-2007, 03:12 PM

A good article that praises Hurdle and critques Melvin on last night's game is here:

ESPN - Arangure: Managers dictate fourth-inning outcome - MLB

hiaspire · 10-16-2007, 03:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BigRapidsJackass

But that thing about the double switch in Philly is just ridiculous

It's not ridiculous. If I recall it after all these exciting days... Hurdle likes Sullivan's defense better than Spilly (rightfully so) and often makes defensive switches (and the focus on defense has been huge for this club), and liked some of the bats on his bench better than Sullivan's which got Baker up to the plate before Sullivan would have. It also did help with the L/R ordering.

It is one of those grey area kind of things, that guys on message boards can over-analyze either way, but in the end there are always pros and cons to most any move made and the players ultimately decide it on the field.

hiaspire · 10-16-2007, 03:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Roxpert

A good article that praises Hurdle and critques Melvin on last night's game is here:

ESPN - Arangure: Managers dictate fourth-inning outcome - MLB

That inning and those decisions did completely change the course of the game. That was a good read.

I felt bad for Owings last night... for a second until I got real happy about going to the World Series.

It sounds like Melvin was thinking more about Owings than the team overall -- talking afterwards how he hadn't been hit too hard and deserved a chance to stay out there to face Holliday. Maybe he did personally, but the team deserved their best chance to stop the bleeding right there and prevent the NL MVP from busting things open in a big way. There was no tomorrow for them, and that moment had all the makings of a game-decider.

Sometimes managers on young teams think more about their players and personal development than impersonal strategy.

Some of the moves Hurdle made in mid-season with a young club that were often attacked here kind of fall into that similar area of putting trust into a player or developing them into a role even if going through some bumps along the way.

Hurdle knows it is October now, though. Things are different now. He's gone through enough do-or-die games to get here to where he isn't going to stick with a guy just because it's the nice thing to do for the player or may help his confidence down the road. He's here to win now, and we haven't lost in forever it feels like.

Hurdle has never been through this kind of stuff before as a manager, and he has to get big props for learning on the job as he navigates a PERFECT post-season amazingly. Manager decisions become 100x more scrutinized in the post-season and every decision carries more weight, and I think this will only help in his development in the dugout.

BigRapidsJackass · 10-16-2007, 05:26 PM

Yep, that article hit the nail on the head.

Again, it shouldn't be about questions like, "Is Owings pitching well," or "Does Owings deserve the chance make it through 5 innings." There's only one all-consuming inquiry here: which pitcher gives us the best chance to make it through this inning with the game still within reach?" Melvin asked the wrong questions and therefore made the wrong decision. There's often only 1 or 2 critical points in a baseball game, and winning vs. losing may depend on how your manager responds to those situations.

Aspire, yeah, it's flogging a dead horse, but c'mon. Give me a break. Hurdle has never made a defensive substitution in that situation (tie game or Rox trailing) before, and there's no way he pulled that double switch in Philly with defense in mind. Hurdle has surprised me by making some very wise decisions in the playoffs, but to be honest we have to admit that he's also gotten away with a few weird ones -- such as the double switch in Philly and letting the pitcher hit only to pull him before he throws another pitch.

hiaspire · 10-16-2007, 05:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BigRapidsJackass

Hurdle has never made a defensive substitution in that situation (tie game or Rox trailing) before, and there's no way he pulled that double switch in Philly with defense in mind.

He makes defensive switches all the time and especially in tight games, and it usually is his top priority late in a game. Sullivan isn't brought into the field for his bat there. He's put in there for his DEFENSE in a tight game. Certainly there is more than a slight possibility that defense was at least partially on Hurdle's mind when he puts Sullivan in CF late in a game. That's what he is.

He usually switches defensively with Atkins too (and I'll even agree too often usually that costs him if the game gets extended), but he wouldn't remove Atkins if he was behind or tied. Spilly isn't the same bat, though, and not as much lost there in comparison to other bench bats. That's what he is too.

DieHardRoxFan · 10-17-2007, 03:35 PM

Hurdle's biggest challenge is to somehow keep the team focused during the 8 day layoff and the skills sharp.

indianadrew · 10-17-2007, 04:31 PM

they are going to arizona to train.

hiaspire · 10-17-2007, 04:41 PM

It will be very difficult, though, as no matter what you do it still isn't like playing the games. The Tigers ran into this problem last year I believe with the Cardinals having less of a layoff and then knocking them off. Some of the Tigers weren't very fundamentally sound in that series and made some goofs. We can't allow our stellar defense to lose that edge.

It may work best for them if Cleveland just takes care of business immediately and wins the next game to get a long layoff themselves to equalize the playing field somewhat.

The good thing is that our bats haven't been hot at all in the playoffs (as we amazingly refuse to lose even a single game despite that) so it won't be a case of hot bats going cold. The time off could do wonders for some guys struggling with some extra time to watch video and work with the coaches. If our big bats wake up in a big way in the World Series (and you'd think they should sometime), there will be a big parade downtown. This extra time could also allow our hitters to study the heck out of their opposing pitchers in the next series and be fully prepared for battle.

They had some time off between the last series, and didn't seem too bothered by it as they just keep sweeping teams. Not that the regular season matters much anymore as this feels like a completely different team than in July (and the all-star break isn't terribly long in comparison), but they did okay coming out of it this year after some time away. They won 4 out of 6 after the break, and the two losses were each 1-run games lost by the middle relievers. That did include a sweep of the Pirates in there, though, and right after those first 6 games they lost those three in DC before bouncing back to take series against SD and LA to close out the month.

I would have probably given them a couple of days completely off for mental health to get to their families or whatever, and then headed down to Tucson (as sounds like they may) for an intensive spring training type boot camp on their fundamentals with a couple of inter-organizational games that put guys like Cook to the test in front of our own live batters. I'd have the hitting coach working extensively trying to get Tulo and Helton in the groove if there was anything mechanical to address (probably more an issue of pressing, though), and then get out to Cleveland or Boston early to get comfortable in that park/environment and start feeling like an under-dog again ready to shock the world.

Newman · 10-18-2007, 08:38 AM

Drew, it would cost MONEY to have the team go down to Arizona to train for 4 days. Not gonna happen under the Monfort Administration.

Hurdle is NOT a genius. He's just an average manager who got lucky and hot at the right time.

Have you ever watched a game, even during this streak, where you said, "brilliant move, Clint. I never would have thought of that. Genius move. That won us the ballgame right there!"

Take the last game, the one we can still remember. He starts Morales. Well, Cook is still not ready. What else is he going to do? Buchholtz? Then he pinch hits with Seth Smith. What's his other choice? Stewart is not ready yet, not on the roster, and may never be anywhere near as good as Atkins.

Where was Clint's genius move? Letting Fuentes pour gas on the fire in the 8th inning? He pretty much had to. He also pretty much had to put Corpas in for the 4 out save.

Where has he been a genius lately?

10-16-2007, 03:03 AM	#17 (permalink)
BigRapidsJackass Veteran Member Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 1,110	I'll say it again: Hurdle outmanaged Melvin. Just a subtle difference here. Melvin sticks with Owings, who is not a bad pitcher and is throwing well. OK, I understand the Seth Smith bloop double. Not his fault. But two men on and Holliday up, your club down by a run? You go with your best. That means Pena-Cruz-Lyon. We haven't touched those guys all series. You try to get 5-6 innings out of Owings on a nice afternoon in June. In October, fighting for your life, you don't let Matt Holliday beat your 6th best pitcher. Not when numbers 1-5 are all available. Meanwhile, Hurdle again shows he understands the situation. I was wondering if he would stick with Morales in the bottom of the 4th. Two men on, but two outs. Morales was looking pretty solid but for his little moment there where he lost concentration again. But Hurdle seems to realize Morales' limitations, the opportunity to put the D'backs in a hole, and (mostly) the fact that his top 4 bullpen arms are better than Morales right now. So he makes the move, it works, and it paves the way to a World Series. Hey, but Brandon Webb should be really rested for Game 5! Funny you should mention the '87 Twins. This team reminds me of that club. A bunch of homegrown players suddenly peaking at the same time: Kirby, Hrbek, Gaetti, Viola, Gagne, Brunansky. A veteran or two: Blyleven, Reardon. Some good role players. A big homefield advantage. The '88 Twins were actually better, but the ran into an even better crop of young players in the Oakland A's mini-dynasty. I do think this club may be better next year ... so will the D'backs. Should be fun. Last edited by BigRapidsJackass; 10-16-2007 at 03:12 AM.

10-17-2007, 04:41 PM	#29 (permalink)
hiaspire Member Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 479	It will be very difficult, though, as no matter what you do it still isn't like playing the games. The Tigers ran into this problem last year I believe with the Cardinals having less of a layoff and then knocking them off. Some of the Tigers weren't very fundamentally sound in that series and made some goofs. We can't allow our stellar defense to lose that edge. It may work best for them if Cleveland just takes care of business immediately and wins the next game to get a long layoff themselves to equalize the playing field somewhat. The good thing is that our bats haven't been hot at all in the playoffs (as we amazingly refuse to lose even a single game despite that) so it won't be a case of hot bats going cold. The time off could do wonders for some guys struggling with some extra time to watch video and work with the coaches. If our big bats wake up in a big way in the World Series (and you'd think they should sometime), there will be a big parade downtown. This extra time could also allow our hitters to study the heck out of their opposing pitchers in the next series and be fully prepared for battle. They had some time off between the last series, and didn't seem too bothered by it as they just keep sweeping teams. Not that the regular season matters much anymore as this feels like a completely different team than in July (and the all-star break isn't terribly long in comparison), but they did okay coming out of it this year after some time away. They won 4 out of 6 after the break, and the two losses were each 1-run games lost by the middle relievers. That did include a sweep of the Pirates in there, though, and right after those first 6 games they lost those three in DC before bouncing back to take series against SD and LA to close out the month. I would have probably given them a couple of days completely off for mental health to get to their families or whatever, and then headed down to Tucson (as sounds like they may) for an intensive spring training type boot camp on their fundamentals with a couple of inter-organizational games that put guys like Cook to the test in front of our own live batters. I'd have the hitting coach working extensively trying to get Tulo and Helton in the groove if there was anything mechanical to address (probably more an issue of pressing, though), and then get out to Cleveland or Boston early to get comfortable in that park/environment and start feeling like an under-dog again ready to shock the world. Last edited by hiaspire; 10-17-2007 at 04:44 PM.

10-16-2007, 08:48 AM	#18 (permalink)
Newman Veteran Member Join Date: Dec 2006 Location: Aurora Posts: 523	Come on. Hurdle is Hurdle. He said himself, he basically just stayed out of the way. He did pinch hit Seth Smith early, and took out Morales early, and everything Hurdle did turned to GOLD! Like Eric Byrnes would say, we were very lucky. Nothing wrong with that. Was it a brilliant Hurdle move to bat Holliday 3rd, so he could be in position to hit the 3 run bomb? He's been batting 3rd all year long. A 10 year old purist kid would bat Matt 3rd in the lineup (ok, or 4th). Only a stathead 10 year old kid would say the lineup doesn't matter! World Series bound. Unbelieveablre.

10-16-2007, 11:32 AM	#19 (permalink)
Dante Bichette Member Join Date: Mar 2007 Posts: 268	This guy is no longer the cooler. Instead, everything he touches turns to Gold. I want him at my blackjack table.

10-16-2007, 03:12 PM	#22 (permalink)
Roxpert Veteran Member Join Date: Nov 2006 Location: Denver Posts: 1,010	A good article that praises Hurdle and critques Melvin on last night's game is here: ESPN - Arangure: Managers dictate fourth-inning outcome - MLB

10-16-2007, 05:26 PM	#25 (permalink)
BigRapidsJackass Veteran Member Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 1,110	Yep, that article hit the nail on the head. Again, it shouldn't be about questions like, "Is Owings pitching well," or "Does Owings deserve the chance make it through 5 innings." There's only one all-consuming inquiry here: which pitcher gives us the best chance to make it through this inning with the game still within reach?" Melvin asked the wrong questions and therefore made the wrong decision. There's often only 1 or 2 critical points in a baseball game, and winning vs. losing may depend on how your manager responds to those situations. Aspire, yeah, it's flogging a dead horse, but c'mon. Give me a break. Hurdle has never made a defensive substitution in that situation (tie game or Rox trailing) before, and there's no way he pulled that double switch in Philly with defense in mind. Hurdle has surprised me by making some very wise decisions in the playoffs, but to be honest we have to admit that he's also gotten away with a few weird ones -- such as the double switch in Philly and letting the pitcher hit only to pull him before he throws another pitch.

10-17-2007, 03:35 PM	#27 (permalink)
DieHardRoxFan Member Join Date: Dec 2006 Posts: 153	Hurdle's biggest challenge is to somehow keep the team focused during the 8 day layoff and the skills sharp.

10-17-2007, 04:31 PM	#28 (permalink)
indianadrew Veteran Member Join Date: Nov 2006 Location: indianapolis Posts: 528	they are going to arizona to train.

10-18-2007, 08:38 AM	#30 (permalink)
Newman Veteran Member Join Date: Dec 2006 Location: Aurora Posts: 523	Drew, it would cost MONEY to have the team go down to Arizona to train for 4 days. Not gonna happen under the Monfort Administration. Hurdle is NOT a genius. He's just an average manager who got lucky and hot at the right time. Have you ever watched a game, even during this streak, where you said, "brilliant move, Clint. I never would have thought of that. Genius move. That won us the ballgame right there!" Take the last game, the one we can still remember. He starts Morales. Well, Cook is still not ready. What else is he going to do? Buchholtz? Then he pinch hits with Seth Smith. What's his other choice? Stewart is not ready yet, not on the roster, and may never be anywhere near as good as Atkins. Where was Clint's genius move? Letting Fuentes pour gas on the fire in the 8th inning? He pretty much had to. He also pretty much had to put Corpas in for the 4 out save. Where has he been a genius lately?