Sweep or stay home: Rox vs. D'backs, final series of the year

[BigRapidsJackass]

First, a pet peeve of mine.

I heard old Irv on the radio talking about how incredibly unlikely it is that the Rox will finish the season with 14 straight wins. I mean, how often does a team put together a 14-game streak? Must be thousands-to-one odds.

No, Irv, it ain't. Each game is an independent event.* The fact that we've won 11 in a row in no way impacts our likelihood of a sweep. Irv must do horribly in Vegas, kicking the slot machines and screaming, "but I was so due."

Setting aside pitching matchups for the moment, if I were a betting man I'd do a crude analysis like this:

Rockies are a .615 club at home. D'backs are a .500 club on the road. Let's split the difference and say the Rox have about a 56.5% chance of winning each game.

So the chances of a sweep? (.565) cubed, or about 18%. Not so good. But a 1 in 5 chance on September 28 of winning the division? Hey, given the last half dozen years I'll take it. (Of course, the Padres could also sweep, meaning they'd win the division but we'd take the wildcard or a 1-game playoff with the Phils/Mets for the wildcard. Not too bad a consolation prize.)

What if they don't sweep? If they don't win at least 2 of 3, they're toast.

If they take 2 of 3, the D'backs win the division. Since the Padres are still a game ahead in the wild card, they'd have to lose 2 of their last 3. And their opponent, Milwaukee, may be eliminated as soon as tonight.

Even if that happens, the Rox will only be tied for the wild card, meaning a 1-game playoff.

But then we'd also have to hope that the Phillies and/or Mets also drop 2 of 3. Otherwise, the loser of the NL East would sneak in ahead of the Rox/Padres and claim the wild card.

At any rate, I find that highly, highly unlikely, particularly since the clubs they're playing (Nationals/Marlins) are (1) not very good (2) have nothing to play for but pride.

So that's it. We need a sweep.

All of the above, of course, ignores the fact that we are obviously the TEAM OF DESTINY. So please ignore these numbers.

*EDIT: O.K., not completely independent events, but pretty darn close. For example, what Hurdle does tonight could impact Saturday's/Sunday's games. Let's say he uses Fuentes for 1.2 innings/40 pitches and Corpas for 2.1 innings/45 pitches, and both guys are unavailable tomorrow. But this should even out since it would improve our win expectancy tonight (as Fuentes/Corpas are better than Affeldt/Julio or whoever else might pitch those "extra" innings.

[Roxpert]

So, Jackass, are you saying that if we don't sweep this weekend, you can "stick a fork in us"?

(sorry, couldn't resist.)

[BigRapidsJackass]

Roxpert, the fork was planted deeply in Hurdle's butt just after Labor Day.

His players have been trying to extricate it ever since, but that last prong is awfully tough to remove ...

[Xitdax8]

Just went to the game tonight boys.

First off, I gotta say that this was easily the greatest, most exciting game I have ever been apart of in Coors Field. There was a serious playoff atmosphere brewing throughout the entire stadium. From the first pitch, fans all over were supporting the Rockies. Cory Sullivan making that tough catch deep in center field, chants of "MVP!" towards Matt Holliday, the longest wave I've ever seen at Coors Field, and more. I'm definetely going again tomorrow.

With that though, the Rockies unfortunately lost... Chances at this point are very, very slim for them to make it. They need to win their last two and the Padres and Phillies need to lose their last two for us to even tie at this point, am I right? Did anyone else here attend the game tonight? The Rox had their chances but just couldn't get it. There were some ugly swings on some high pitches by a few of the rooks tonight, including Tulo, surprising enough. Either way, that was easily one of the most energetic games I've ever been apart of.

[Roxpert]

Watching the game on TV, I got the sense that the Rockies hitters were a little "jumpy" at the plate last night, perhaps overanxious to make something happen against Brandon Webb. Todd Helton was Exhibit A, with his check swing comebacker, and grounding to first on the first pitch of an earlier at-bat. Tulo looked anxious at the plate too.

I'm thinking that we really were damaged by the late game in L.A., and getting home at 3 AM or whatever time it was that their plane landed. It didn't hurt Francis since he was already here, but the rest of the team probably didn't hit their pillows at home until 5 AM. It showed in the jumpy at-bats and even with the fielding reactions.

The odds of making the NLDS are about 4%, by my calculation. I give us a 56% chance of winning each of the next two games (using Jackasses' number), and give the Brewers a 50% chance of winning each of their two games against the Padres. Then, I give us a 50% chance of winning our playoff game to get to the NLDS. All of those are independent events, and so it comes out to still a 4% shot at the playoffs. I'll be at Coors hoping for a miracle tonight and tomorrow.

[BigRapidsJackass]

baseballprospectus.com arrives at the same result as Roxpert: Rox are down to a 4.4% chance of making the playoffs. Friday morning they had our chances at 34%.

Ouch. Yesterday was a sad, sad, day.

And I agree with xitdax: I was there, and the atmosphere was electric. Fireworks day had already brought a lot of casual fans, but it wasn't like fireworks day on the 4th of July. People were ready to see the impossible happen.

It didn't.

I have to take exception with Kreiger's column today. He suggests that some of the young players felt the pressure and didn't perform as well as they could have. I think the answer is far simpler: Brandon Webb is a true ace, and he had the sinker working.

One valid point he (or maybe it was Litwin's cover piece) did make: it still hurts me to see Hurdle have to go to guys like Stewart/Smith/Koshansky (it was Joe last night) with the season on the line. I still haven't forgiven the Monforts for not allowing the Rox to bring in the classic "professional hitter" for the stretch. Nor have I forgiven O'Dowd for squandering the million bucks Charlie did give him on Ramon Ortiz. Here's what we got for that million:

-- wasn't used at all over the last 2 weeks. Last appearance was 9/15, a 1-inning mop-up role in a 10-2 loss.

-- totals as a Rocky: 12 IP, 11 ER allowed, 4 HR, 7 BB, 6 K

-- pushed aside in favor of Mark Redman (sitting at home when the Rox signed him in August), and minimum-salary guys Herges and Speier

Lessons learned?

1. To give your team a fighting chance, your ownership first has to believe in your team. Monfort talks a good game but he obviously never believed the Rox could make a September run. If he had, he would've given them something to work with.

2. The players performed brilliantly down the stretch. It turns out that every single game of the last 12 was really a must-win game. They knew it, and they performed. Last night was no exception. Webb is just that good.

3. Hurdle really did work well with the extended roster, and he squeezed just about all he could out of what he had. A couple questionable decisions to bunt -- that's about all I can complain about. He recognized the urgency of the situation (a couple weeks too late in my opinion, but better late than never) and adjusted accordingly without overreacting. I hate to say it, but he did a fine job overall in September.

4. As Litwin points out, you really can't give away games early in the year the way the Rockies did. Hurdle was fine in September, but what about April and May? A couple 4-6 out saves for Corpas when the rest of the pen was struggling and we might have won the NL West.

5. If anyone froze under pressure it was O'Dowd. No, I'm not talking about giving up top prospects for Jose Contreras. I am talking about his fear of taking any kind of risk to improve our chances down the stretch. Charlie gave him a bit of money to play with, he let the trade deadline pass without taking any action at all, and then he squandered the small amount he had on Ramon Ortiz. He didn't have to deal Morales or Stewart or Jimenez to get something useful for the stretch. He had guys like Baker and Koshansky (clearly neither figure in the Rox plans), but was completely unable to get anything done. The Rox young players hadn't dealt with the pressure of a pennant chase before. Neither had O'Dowd. The players performed. O'Dowd didn't.

The Padres and Brewers play this afternoon, so we'll know whether tonight's game means anything before it even starts. If the Brewers (a team that is in total collapse -- 5 errors the other night) can steal one, I would imagine the D'backs will start resting key players, even though they still have to lock up home field for the playoffs.

[BigRapidsJackass]

Padres at Brewers is slated to be Fox's Saturday afternoon game.

It starts at 1:30.

GO BREWERS!!

[indianadrew]

2-1 brewers woooo hooooo


later in the game:

OMG thank you TG jr

[HoyaRoxFan]

Brewers win!!!!!!!!!!

Rockies are still alive, gang!

[indianadrew]

grand slam TULO

GO ROCKIES