A Sober Analysis of the Upcoming Week

[BigRapidsJackass]

Just the facts. No cheerleading, no pessimism. Some things stack up nicely in our favor. Some not so great, but overall I'm liking what I see.

Rockies at Dodgers

Tuesday: Jimenez vs. Penny. Ordinarily not a favorable matchup, but I think Penny is running out of gas. He's already over 200 IP for only the 2nd time in his career, and his post-ASB numbers (though still very good) aren't quite what they were in the first half. Add to that Jimenez's recent dominance (and he got pushed ahead of Fogg's turn in the rotation because of it -- an interesting move since it sets up Jimenez to go on normal rest in the last game of the season against the D'backs) and this one's a toss-up. Things would be better if the Dodgers had given up. Today's game suggests they haven't ... not just yet.

Wednesday: Fogg vs. Lowe. Talk about out of gas. That's Lowe. He's battling a couple minor injuries and struggling to make it to the finish line.
With Fogg you just never know. The one thing we do know is that Clint has an awfully quick hook now when Fogg is on the mound. Again, pretty even at this point of the year.

Thursday: Morales vs. TBA. I really like our chances here. Franklin has been dominant, although he almost let a couple loss-of-focus moments destroy his last start.

I'm betting we take 2 of 3.

D'backs at Pirates

Tuesday: Doug Davis vs. Ian Snell. Snell appears to have overcome a dead arm period. Davis has managed to survive quite nicely while giving up nearly 5BB/9. I like the Pirates' chances here.

Wednesday: Livan Hernandez vs. Matt Morris. Livan is always the same. Morris is always a very poor second half pitcher. Advantage Dbacks.

Thursday: Brandon Webb vs. Paul Maholm. Advantage Dbacks.

I'm betting AZ takes 2.

Padres at Giants

Monday: Chris Young vs. Zito. Young is another pitcher stumbling toward the finish line. Zito generally finishes strong. Even.

Tuesday: Brett Tomko vs. Matt Cain. Advantage Giants.

Wednesday: Jake Peavy vs. Pat Misch. Big advantage Padres.

I'm guessing SF can take 2 of 3.

Then the Padres go to Milwaukee and get Yovani Gallardo against Jack Cassel or someone else. Gallardo is their Morales. Advantage Brewers.

Overall, I'd bet on the Padres losing 3 of the next 4.

Braves at Phillies

Tuesday: Chuck James vs. Jamie Moyer. Jamie looks back in time and sees himself 15 years ago. Luckily, the Braves are sneaking a little closer and should play this series for keeps. Pretty even, advantage Phils based on home field.

Wednesday: Tim Hudson vs. Kyle Lohse. You gotta love how it starts stacking up here. Big advantage Braves.

Thursday: Smoltz vs. Eaton. Another great matchup for us.

Prediction: Braves take 2 of 3.

If all this goes according to plan, here's how the records would stack up on Friday morning:

AZ 90-69
SD 86-73
PHI 86-73
COL 86-73
ATL 84-75

About the only thing I think might be a stretch here is the Padres losing 3 of 4to the Giants/Brewers. Otherwise, I think everything here is the most likely scenario for each club.

And if I'm right, what a final weekend it'll be. In fact, this might be the best possible scenario: if the D'backs clinch the division on Thursday night, we'll see their AAA lineup next weekend. We'll miss Brandon Webb and possibly Doug Davis, too, as the D'backs set up their playoff rotation. What could be better than that?

[HoyaRoxFan]

I remember I was in the midst of a long car ride coming down from the mountains. I remember the radio announcers going nuts at the end of the game. I remember Saberhagen had pitched the game.

Looking at baseballreference.com, that would be the 2nd to last game in 1995. Is my memory serving correct? Is that the game we clinched the playoff spot? September 25, 1995?

[Newman]

Rah rah ziss boom bah, Jackass. You're cheerleading. Nothing wrong with that but don't spin it any other way. Penny and Lowe will be favored at home against us. Is Holliday's oblique playing by the way??

Hoya, I recall the Saberhagen memory too. Didn't we get him as damaged goods? And that victory finished off his elbow? Memory...

[BigRapidsJackass]

Giants 4, Padres 2 ... Giants still batting in the bottom of the 3rd.

Chris Young is hurting! Already well over 60 pitches.

C'mon, let the Curse of Mad Milton continue!

UPDATE: 7-2!!!!!!!!!!!!

TEAM OF DESTINY

UPDATE 2: Young at 70 pitches. The Padres will have to blow up their bullpen today, then they get Matt Cain tomorrow against BRETT TOMKO. The stars are aligning in a bit Rocky Mountain formation ....

UPDATE 3: Sorry, this is making me giddy. The Padres lineup just plain SUX. (Oh, by the way, the Giants lineup -- without Bonds, without Feliz -- that's beating up on Young actually sux worse.) Reminds me of the Sullivan-Barmes-Ardoin black hole at the bottom of the order: Bard-Blum-Brady Clark-Pitcher. And that means Greene is batting in the 5 hole. Thank you Milton, thank you. You stepped on Cameron's hand, then your manager took you down. You've killed a previously fine club.

[TheIncredibleRox]

How fun is this? This is what you live for as a fan.

At this time of year--hell, usually starting in August--usually I'm reduced to checking up on our younger players in the boxscores, looking for a glimpse of the future. It's been a long, long time since I've cared about the scoreboard (ours and our rivals').

I feel like an idiot for pronouncing this team dead in (I think) mid-May. I've never been happier to be an idiot.

[TheIncredibleRox]

By the way... best run differential in the league. How cool is that? Who would have predicted that 4 months ago?

[Nate505]

I gotta say, I can't remember the last time, ever, that I've enjoyed watching a Rockies team this much, especially this deep into the season.

Almost all their games are must wins, but hey, even with a game back I like the Rockies' chances, although those games they dropped to the Pirates and Marlins are looming large right now.

That being said, it's a hell of a ride and I hope the Rockies pull it off. The fact I'm watching baseball says it all (no offense, but I'm a bigger football/basketball fan).

[BigRapidsJackass]

Watch out, the Padres are creeping back into the game in SF ...

... just for fun I checked out local sports talk radio on the way to/from work today. Wall-to-wall Broncos. Rockies only mentioned in the little "headline" segments giving the scores. No time at all devoted to them.

Sorry Broncos fans, but right now the Rockies are a better baseball team than the Broncos are a football team.

[HoyaRoxFan]

And let's not forget, the Brewers won big tonight, keeping their "hopes" alive, which is good for us.

Meanwhile, the Nats are learning how to play spoiler finally, beating up on the Mets.

[BigRapidsJackass]

Clahh Meredith (was there ever a dumber misspelling? at least since Micheal Ray Richardson?), the magic is over.

Giants tack on 2.

9-4.

Exactly one game out with 6 to play.

Awesome ...

[Newman]

Steve Phillips on Baseball Tonight was promoting our chances. Finally getting some national respect. He said the DBacks could clinch early, and if they do they may rest some players which could benefit us. We play them the last games of the season.

I hope Holliday's oblique is o'fine.

Man I'm bouncing up and down on my exercise ball as I type. 8pm is a long way away, tomorrow night. Ubaldo vs. Penny 8:10pm FSN. Go Rox!

[BigRapidsJackass]

I'm not sure I needed that mental image of a crazed postal worker riding the exercise ball just before I go to bed ...

... but I appreciate the sentiment

[indianadrew]

Originally Posted by BigRapidsJackass

I'm not sure I needed that mental image of a crazed postal worker riding the exercise ball just before I go to bed ...

... but I appreciate the sentiment

ehhheeewww.. newman, no offense, but i get the vision of the full grown baby from mork and mindy. jonathan winters i think it was.

BTW newman: are you losing all of your cash to the guys at the post office?

[BigRapidsJackass]

Talk about fun: over at baseballmusings.com, Dave Pinto is rooting for his "massive tie scenario" to become reality. This would result in about 3 rounds of 1-game playoffs. Here's how it would go:

Massive Tie Scenario
The Padres fell to the Giants last night 9-4 as Chris Young pitches another poor game. Zito didn't pitch much better, but the Padres timing was worse as they went 4 for 15 with runners in scoring position vs. 6 for 16 for the Giants.

The loss reduces the Diamondbacks magic number to four. It increases the chance for a three way wild card tie but a tie involving the Diamondbacks is looking iffy. We still have a shot at the Mets tying the three wild card contenders, however, resulting in three days of playoffs.

Here are the outcomes that result in the highest winning percentage.

Team Record
Rockies 6-0
Phillies 5-1
Padres 5-1
Mets 3-3
Diamondbacks 2-4

In order to help this along, look for these results today:

Philadelphia defeats Atlanta
Pittsburgh defeats Arizona
Washington defeats New York
Colorado defeats Los Angeles
San Diego defeats San Francisco
Colorado really holds the key here. With three games against Arizona, they have the opportunity to pull this all together the last weekend of the season.

[BigRapidsJackass]

Braves 3, Phillies 1, bottom 1.

Pirates 2, Dbags 0, top 2.

Like Moses fleeing to the promised land, the seas are parting for us ... TEAM OF DESTINY!

UPDATE: Nats 4, Mets 0.