rox at friars 9/21 to 9/23

[RMF]

Lets just enjoy two more years of Holliday and hope we get a huge return for him sometime or make a bang in the playoffs. This is where we've wanted to be and now we're there. Time to enjoy every second of meaningful baseball. There is absolutely no way we can afford Holliday long term. It really is too bad. However, if they play their cards right it shouldn't take as long between rebuilds.

[indianadrew]

i am surprised that nobody has commented on helton not hitting 4th. lets go rockies!

[Roxpert]

Wow, this is getting into surreal territory now. Even the optimists on this forum could not have possibly expected what has happened. Eight straight wins, our longest winning streak of the year (and in years), and now only 1 1/2 games behind SD for the wild card. Philly is also only a game ahead of us.

Going to LA, the Dodgers will be keyed up to do to us what we did to them last week, and they will be gunning to knock us out of the playoffs. They seem to have real problems, though, and we have a shot at winning that series, which will leave us with three at home against the Snakes.

Being only 4 back in the NL West even makes the division an outside shot for the Rox. Regardless of the outcome the next week, the Rockies are completing a dream season. A nice way to set up 2008.

And what about Milton Bradley today? What a nut!

[BigRapidsJackass]

And what about Milton Bradley today? What a nut!

Well, that's one possible explanation. Milton prefers:

1. Bud Black is a racist.
2. The umpires are racist.

I prefer:

3. Roid rage.
4. Cannot handle the fact that he -- a linebacker sized 30 year old -- can be tackled and have his knee ripped up by a 48 year old retired lefty finesse pitcher.

Forget everything I ever said about how we should've acquired Milton Bradley. We just saw a very talented young man's career ended this afternoon for no reason other than his own stupidity.

[bedir than average]

I need more explanation of the Bradley incident.

[RMF]

I also need a further explanation on Bradley.

I saw him go down and limp off on MLB.com but I haven't seen a report on the extent of the injury. I hate to say this but if Cameron and Bradley miss some time it would be huge.

BTW Great seats are available for the Rockies series against the D-Backs. I'll be in town playing in a golf tournament and I bought great seats today. It's a potentially historic series and I'll be sitting in section 131 Unbelieveable.

[indianadrew]

Padres left fielder Milton Bradley was ejected and then injured his right knee during a bizarre sequence in the eighth inning of Sunday's game against Colorado.
Bradley reached on a two-out single, then said something to umpire Mike Winters. During the course of Kevin Kouzmanoff's at-bat, it escalated into an argument and Padres manager Bud Black came running out of the dugout.

Bradley went after Winters, was restrained by coach Bobby Meacham, then was ejected. Bradley continued to go after Winters. Black tired to restrain Bradley, grabbing him by the jersey and pushed him to the ground. Bradley grabbed his right knee and had to be helped off the field.

[Newman]

Originally Posted by RMF

Lets just enjoy two more years of Holliday and hope we get a huge return for him sometime or make a bang in the playoffs. This is where we've wanted to be and now we're there. Time to enjoy every second of meaningful baseball. There is absolutely no way we can afford Holliday long term. It really is too bad. However, if they play their cards right it shouldn't take as long between rebuilds.

I missed all the Bradley histrionics by watching the Bronco game. Kept flipping back and forth at my Bronco party, and since the Rox game seemed well in control, we didn't stay there much.

Jackass and RMF, the problem with enjoying Holliday's two final years with us could be torpedoed if DOD decides to trade Matt over the winter, knowing full well we can't sign him. I think Sandy is spot on in his analysis.

The longer we wait to trade Holliday, maybe the less we get for him.

I want more for Matt than we got for our other home grown talent, Jason Jennings. Well, I want new owners is what I want, people who can afford to play this big boy's game, with deep pockets, owners who can compete!

If Cameron and Bradley are out...is it possible we could make the playoffs with this patchwork starting pitching staff

[Newman]

Originally Posted by indianadrew

i am surprised that nobody has commented on helton not hitting 4th. lets go rockies!

It's only because Holliday didn't play because of his oblique injury. Helton batted third and Atkins batted cleanup.

I'm sure Clint will revert to his normal lineup when Matt returns.

And Heltonfan assures me that lineups don't matter anyway. They are statistically irrelevant.

[Heltonfan]

Helton, when you speak of fair market value and come to a figure that only a few players have acheived, what is your basis?

Pujols didn't get that much. Manny did and ARod.

Is Holliday really in that class of hitter?

No, he isn't. Not by a longshot. But Manny and A-Rod signed a long time ago; don't underestimate inflation. Pujols signed more recently, but again, the market is very different now than it was even a couple years ago, and besides, his was both a) a different sort of deal (some of the years in his deal would have been arbitration years, not FA years) and b) a bargain of ridiculous proportions. And for what it's worth, Holliday is a pretty good outfielder... if he's 5 runs above average per year defensively, that's another $2.5 million or so to add to his expected annual salary.

The going rate on last winter's free agent market was $4.27 million per win. I have Holliday projected at 5.35 WAR per year (this projection makes him around the 10th-most valuable player in baseball; given what he's done over the past two years, I think that's perfectly reasonable. Factoring in inflation (10% per year) and Holliday's expected decline as a player (3-4 runs per year), an 8/200 deal for him comes out to $4.25m/win. Bullseye.

Now, let's fast-forward to the winter after the 2009 season. If the 10% annual inflation continues, the going rate for a win on the FA market will be around $5.2 million per win. Holliday probably won't be quite as good as he is now, but he should be pretty darn close; let's say an even 5 WAR. That puts fair market value (again, based on $5.2m/win as the expected going rate) at 8/224 ($28 million a year). If he gets overpaid, we're looking at something in the $32-35 million a year range, maybe with a ninth year added onto the contract (if this sounds ridiculous, just remember that Carlos Lee, who isn't half the player Holliday is, got a 6/100 deal last winter; it's very much within the realm of possibility).

[Newman]

Speak English, please.

Are you saying we should sign him or not, that he's worth it or not?

And when Monfort doesn't sign him, let's him go, what does that say about our ownership?

Was struck by your WAR stat. Once again I sing, "War, harrumph, what is it good for? Absolutely nothing!" Do you really need newfangled stats to see that Matt Holliday is a top ten player? The triple crown stats and your eyesight tell you that.

Holliday has improved as an outfielder but he is no Barry Bonds gold glover out there. Still looks awkward at times, though I do like the improvement with the coming in on Texas Leaguers and making the sliding catches, leaving huge divots.

[Heltonfan]

Do you really need newfangled stats to see that Matt Holliday is a top ten player?

No. But you need them in order to understand how many wins he's actually worth over the course of a season (WAR stands for Wins Above Replacement), and you need to know how many wins he's worth in order to know how much he should be paid.

I'm saying that Holliday's fair market value, assuming that he and the market develop according to projections, will be in the 8/224 range. Which means that, assuming that we have a league-average payroll, signing Holliday at that price is a break-even proposition (i.e. it doesn't matter whether we sign him or not). If we can get him at 8/200, though, we should do it. But again, all of this is contingent on my assumption of 10% annual salary inflation.

[BigRapidsJackass]

Heltonfan, I understand your analysis. And I agree with the general proposition: if Holliday is "worth" 8/200 on the free market (based on a calculation similar to yours), then we really ought to be willing to pay it. Otherwise the Monforts are just in the wrong business.

But my larger point was this: why Holliday? Why not some other player (or combination of players) for the same money? I mean, we all like him. But it's not as if he's the "face of the franchise" or anything. Increasingly, Tulo is going to assume that role.

And that's what bothers me about the Holliday obsession. It sounds like an excuse for mock indignation from the ill-informed like Sandy Clough. I'll be pissed if the Monforts don't open up the pursestrings now that they clearly have a winning core in place. I won't be pissed if they decide to let Holliday walk away because they'd rather lock up some other combination of players instead of him.

[Roxpert]

If we can get him at 8/200, though, we should do it. But again, all of this is contingent on my assumption of 10% annual salary inflation.

What's apparent to you now may not yet be apparent to Holliday, his agent, or the Rockies. This spells O-P-P-O-R-T-U-N-I-T-Y to me.

This offseason, assuming your valuation is correct, if the Rockies don't offer Holliday a 6-year/$120 million contract extension, they'd be nuts. They would be getting Holliday at a major discount to what his market value would be after the 2009 season. They could structure the deal as follows:

2008 - $5 million
2009 - $7 million
2010 - $12 million
2011 - $15 million
2012 - $18 million
2013 - $18 million
2014 - $22 million
2015 - $25 million
2016 - Team option at $25 million or $10 million buyout

That adds up to $120 million guaranteed after his arbitration years. If you were owner of the Rockies, would you sign off on this deal, again assuming Heltonfan's valuation is correct? I would. And I think Holliday and Boras might well agree to it this offseason.

[BigRapidsJackass]

Roxpert, what you say is correct, at least in principle.

Who knows what Holliday's value will be in 2 years. Clint Hurdle may tackle him to save Holliday from bumping an umpire and Matt may tear up an ACL. He may be caught with a shipment of HGH. He may hit 55 HRs.

He's made a lot of money already -- probably close to $10 million -- as a professional baseball player. If he doesn't go all Milton Bradley on us, he'll make another $15+ million even before he's a free agent.

But he won't have the complete "I can buy whatever I want for myself and my (extended) family and never have to worry about where it's coming from" freedom until he signs a big deal. It's in his interest to avoid the risk of catastrophic injury by signing that deal now.

But everything I've seen suggests to me that the Rockies are being straight with us on this one. Boras clients have never done this in recent memory. He advises them to go to free agency. Period. So I don't think anything will change with Holliday.

Chase Utley gave the Phillies a discount when he signed. His agent is not Boras. He is a more valuable player than Holliday, so in theory his contract should set the ceiling for a deal like this (after you factor in another year of salary inflation). His deal: 7/85. It looks ridiculously cheap already.