UNC loses another

BravesRule22 · 02-26-2007, 10:09 AM

UNC hasnt looked of late, this after losing to Maryland by 2 last night.

Do they still have a #1 seed locked up ?

I think its very much up in the air right now, 1 thing I do know is that you do not want to be playing like this going into March, it could be a sign of an early exit for the Heels in the field of 64

dlb · 02-26-2007, 11:11 AM

Our biggest weakness is our defense. More experienced teams with good gaurds can beat us. Plus, we have not yet gained the ability to come back and win close games in the final minutes. So, yes, we're vulnerable come Tourney time.

It also appears that Roy is not making as much use of his depth as he had been. Our top-five players are getting more minutes.

This could mean that Roy has found his mix and is preparing them to carry the weight. If so, this small drop-off could be just part of the process. If not, it could mean that this very young team just isn't ready to challenge for a National Championship.

Edit: looking at the box score, you could blame this loss entirely on poor free-throw shooting. Wright went 0-4; Hansbrough was 2-4. Put Wright at his normal 50% and Hanbrough at his normal 75% and you get 3 points, enough for a 1-point win.

However, we were also outrebounded and both Lawson (3-7) and Terry (2-7), shot poorly. Put it all together and you get lots of missed opportunities.

BravesRule22 · 02-26-2007, 12:05 PM

the Tourny is all about guard play, and while there is no doubt you guys have talented ones, the question is can they make shots on a consistant basis to go deep in the tourny ?

From what I have seen, the answer to that is no

dlb · 02-26-2007, 05:08 PM

Lawson is a good penetrator, as good as any I've seen. Ellington has disappointed me, probably because after Charlie Scott (one of the greatest scorers in Carolina history), dubbed him destined to become the greatest scorer in Carolina history, I've been expecting, well, greatness. It hasn't arrived yet.

Where I think our guards are weak is on defense. Big, strong, experienced guards seem to physically overmatch Lawson and Ellington. I don't think this is a problem that can be fixed in three weeks. These guys need another year of seasoning before they can match up well with whomever the selection committe throws at them.

I don't recommend picking upset in the Tourney (it's a bad strategy; upsets will happen, but there is no reliable predictor). However, if you like to do that sort of thing, look for VA Tech-like teams in Carolina's bracket - teams that have big, strong senior guards and have played against quality opponents. We will have a hard time with every one of those teams. One of them will take us out.

BravesRule22 · 02-26-2007, 09:57 PM

Juding by your last line you dont think you are going to win it all ?

Most of the UNC fans I know think you have a really good chance to win....I think you guys have a decent chance but I think there are about 5-6 teams that are better suited than you are.......

While I think your guards have a chance to be really good and will probably win a title in a year or 2.....right now I just dont think they are ready to do it

dlb · 02-26-2007, 10:21 PM

No, I don't think we'll win. Our upside is a Final Four showing.

Quote:

...I think there are about 5-6 teams that are better suited than you are.......

Sagarin has us rated as the best in the country. However, team number 10 is only about 6 Sagarin points below us, so it's anyone's game.

Sagarin's greatest weakness is that he considers the whole season, so teams that go hot or cold toward the end of the year aren't identified. I think Carolina has plateaued. We can get to the next level, but it won't be easy. If we do, we'll make the Final Four. If not, we'll get into the Sweet 16, but have only a 50/50 chance of getting out.

02-26-2007, 10:09 AM	#1 (permalink)
BravesRule22 Basketball Community Moderator Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 1,089	UNC loses another UNC hasnt looked of late, this after losing to Maryland by 2 last night. Do they still have a #1 seed locked up ? I think its very much up in the air right now, 1 thing I do know is that you do not want to be playing like this going into March, it could be a sign of an early exit for the Heels in the field of 64 __________________ Braves, Knicks, Bucs, Louisville

02-26-2007, 11:11 AM	#2 (permalink)
dlb Senior Member Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 4,583	Our biggest weakness is our defense. More experienced teams with good gaurds can beat us. Plus, we have not yet gained the ability to come back and win close games in the final minutes. So, yes, we're vulnerable come Tourney time. It also appears that Roy is not making as much use of his depth as he had been. Our top-five players are getting more minutes. This could mean that Roy has found his mix and is preparing them to carry the weight. If so, this small drop-off could be just part of the process. If not, it could mean that this very young team just isn't ready to challenge for a National Championship. Edit: looking at the box score, you could blame this loss entirely on poor free-throw shooting. Wright went 0-4; Hansbrough was 2-4. Put Wright at his normal 50% and Hanbrough at his normal 75% and you get 3 points, enough for a 1-point win. However, we were also outrebounded and both Lawson (3-7) and Terry (2-7), shot poorly. Put it all together and you get lots of missed opportunities. Last edited by dlb; 02-26-2007 at 11:26 AM.

02-26-2007, 12:05 PM	#3 (permalink)
BravesRule22 Basketball Community Moderator Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 1,089	the Tourny is all about guard play, and while there is no doubt you guys have talented ones, the question is can they make shots on a consistant basis to go deep in the tourny ? From what I have seen, the answer to that is no __________________ Braves, Knicks, Bucs, Louisville

02-26-2007, 09:57 PM	#5 (permalink)
BravesRule22 Basketball Community Moderator Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 1,089	Juding by your last line you dont think you are going to win it all ? Most of the UNC fans I know think you have a really good chance to win....I think you guys have a decent chance but I think there are about 5-6 teams that are better suited than you are....... While I think your guards have a chance to be really good and will probably win a title in a year or 2.....right now I just dont think they are ready to do it __________________ Braves, Knicks, Bucs, Louisville

02-26-2007, 05:08 PM	#4 (permalink)
dlb Senior Member Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 4,583	Lawson is a good penetrator, as good as any I've seen. Ellington has disappointed me, probably because after Charlie Scott (one of the greatest scorers in Carolina history), dubbed him destined to become the greatest scorer in Carolina history, I've been expecting, well, greatness. It hasn't arrived yet. Where I think our guards are weak is on defense. Big, strong, experienced guards seem to physically overmatch Lawson and Ellington. I don't think this is a problem that can be fixed in three weeks. These guys need another year of seasoning before they can match up well with whomever the selection committe throws at them. I don't recommend picking upset in the Tourney (it's a bad strategy; upsets will happen, but there is no reliable predictor). However, if you like to do that sort of thing, look for VA Tech-like teams in Carolina's bracket - teams that have big, strong senior guards and have played against quality opponents. We will have a hard time with every one of those teams. One of them will take us out.