Handicapping the Final Four

dlb · 04-01-2008, 01:56 PM

For the first time in the history of the NCAA Tourney, we have four #1 seeds vying for the crown. As a Carolina fan, I've spent a little time looking for some rays of hope that might light possible paths to victory for my boys, but I can't say I've found any.

Here's my take:
The selection committee and Sagarin seem to agree that the Tar Heels are the top team. However, their lead is so slight that it must be measured in nanometers.

As best I can tell, the selection committee had it as NC, UCLA, KS, Memphis. Sagarin ranks them NC, KS, Memphis, UCLA.

If you look at the Elo portion of Sagarin's rating, the ranking is Memphis, NC, UCLA, KS. However, an Elo rating is, by nature, only a good predictor of a multiple game series (and the more games the better).

The best predictor of a single-game matchup is the White Owl rating (margin of victory only). By this assessment, the four teams fall out as KS, NC, Memphis, UCLA.

Looking at Tourney games only, NC probably looks most impressive, with double-digit wins over all comers (generally, teams that win by large margins in the Tourney do very well). But I think we can agree that all of these teams could have beaten Mt. St. Mary's by 30-plus, and each is capable of a 10-point win over L'ville. So the only wins that really stand out are the drubbings of AR and WSU.

KS did not look that great against Davidson, but Davidson is an excellent team. The Tar Heels only beat them by 4 back in November. Surveying the rest of their bracket, though, I don't see any impressive wins.

Memphis looked great against both MISt and TX. Plus, these guys seem to have a chip on their collective shoulder. I'd like their chances a lot, except...

They have to face UCLA in the semis. The Bruins, like the Jayhawks, don't have any really impressive wins, but isn't this their third visit to the Final Four in three years? If anyone can claim the experience factor, they sure can. Plus, both Love and Collison are great players and the Bruins, having played in the Pac-10, are much more tested than the Tigers.

So, in an exercise that isn't much more than grasping at straws, here's what I think are each team's chances.
UCLA v Memphis - the Bruins have a 55% chance of advancing.
NC v KS - I give the 'Heels a 60% chance of getting by the 'Hawks.

NC v UCLA - About as close to a toss-up as I can imagine. Both teams are good and they match up well. I teeny, tiny 52% chance goes to the 'Heels from here (and of course, "here" is only about 25 miles from uptown Chapel Hill).

04-01-2008, 01:56 PM	#1 (permalink)
dlb Senior Member Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 4,291	Handicapping the Final Four For the first time in the history of the NCAA Tourney, we have four #1 seeds vying for the crown. As a Carolina fan, I've spent a little time looking for some rays of hope that might light possible paths to victory for my boys, but I can't say I've found any. Here's my take: The selection committee and Sagarin seem to agree that the Tar Heels are the top team. However, their lead is so slight that it must be measured in nanometers. As best I can tell, the selection committee had it as NC, UCLA, KS, Memphis. Sagarin ranks them NC, KS, Memphis, UCLA. If you look at the Elo portion of Sagarin's rating, the ranking is Memphis, NC, UCLA, KS. However, an Elo rating is, by nature, only a good predictor of a multiple game series (and the more games the better). The best predictor of a single-game matchup is the White Owl rating (margin of victory only). By this assessment, the four teams fall out as KS, NC, Memphis, UCLA. Looking at Tourney games only, NC probably looks most impressive, with double-digit wins over all comers (generally, teams that win by large margins in the Tourney do very well). But I think we can agree that all of these teams could have beaten Mt. St. Mary's by 30-plus, and each is capable of a 10-point win over L'ville. So the only wins that really stand out are the drubbings of AR and WSU. KS did not look that great against Davidson, but Davidson is an excellent team. The Tar Heels only beat them by 4 back in November. Surveying the rest of their bracket, though, I don't see any impressive wins. Memphis looked great against both MISt and TX. Plus, these guys seem to have a chip on their collective shoulder. I'd like their chances a lot, except... They have to face UCLA in the semis. The Bruins, like the Jayhawks, don't have any really impressive wins, but isn't this their third visit to the Final Four in three years? If anyone can claim the experience factor, they sure can. Plus, both Love and Collison are great players and the Bruins, having played in the Pac-10, are much more tested than the Tigers. So, in an exercise that isn't much more than grasping at straws, here's what I think are each team's chances. UCLA v Memphis - the Bruins have a 55% chance of advancing. NC v KS - I give the 'Heels a 60% chance of getting by the 'Hawks. NC v UCLA - About as close to a toss-up as I can imagine. Both teams are good and they match up well. I teeny, tiny 52% chance goes to the 'Heels from here (and of course, "here" is only about 25 miles from uptown Chapel Hill).