Team Spotlight: Cleveland Indians

Heltonfan · 11-23-2007, 11:21 PM

The Indians are one of the best organizations in the game. Mark Shapiro’s trading record is second to none, and with the exception of the apparent fixation on a “proven closer” (how else do you explain Wickman and Borowski?), the Indians have shown themselves to be pretty statistically savvy. They’re easily the favorites in the AL Central, and the future, even assuming that C.C. Sabathia leaves next winter, is quite bright.

Summary Statistics
Rotation: +18
Bullpen: -3
Lineup: +42
Bench: +11
Defense: +5
W-L record: 89-73

Rotation

Sabathia 3.08
Carmona 3.81
Westbrook 3.85
Lee 4.35
Byrd 4.54

Carmona was a Cy Young candidate this year. Westbrook went 6-9 with a 4.32 ERA. And yet they project to be basically the same pitcher. There are several reasons for this:
1)Carmona was incredibly lucky this year, both in terms of BABIP and situational luck. His ERA should have been a run higher than it actually was.
2)Westbrook has a track record. Carmona doesn’t.
3)Component-wise, they are basically the same pitcher. Carmona struck out 15% of the batters he faced, and walked 8%. Westbrook struck out 14% and walked 9%. And both are extreme groundballers.
The net effect of all this is that Carmona, in all likelihood, is one of the more overrated pitchers around right now.

The Indians also have plenty of depth behind the front five, with youngsters Jeremy Sowers (4.54), Aaron Laffey (4.65), and Adam Miller (4.58). I absolutely loathe Sowers as a pitcher, though; the guy has AA stuff, and doesn’t locate it particularly well. It’s pathetic. It amazes me that he gets anyone out at all. He’s a distant #8 on this depth chart, as far as I’m concerned.

Bullpen

Borowski 4.16
Betancourt 2.64
Perez 3.85
Fultz 3.82
Mastny 3.62
Mujica 4.08
Lewis 3.28

That’s a pretty good bullpen. It would be a great one if Borowski and Betancourt switched roles.

Lineup

C: Martinez 4.21 (.301, 0)
1B: Garko 1.00 (.266, -3)
2B: Cabrera 1.31 (.244, 4)
SS: Peralta 3.32 (.281, -4)
3B: Marte 1.38 (.254, -1)
LF: Francisco 1.27 (.260, -1)
CF: Sizemore 5.20 (.309, 0)
RF: Gutierrez 2.18 (.258, 8)
DH: Hafner 4.29 (.319)

Hafner’s ABR dropped 79 points from 2006 to 2007. He’s a great rebound candidate.

This is an easy group of players to get a handle on. Great talent up the middle, mediocre on the corners.

Bench

Shoppach .254
Barfield .244
Blake .256
Dellucci .257

Kelly Shoppach is one of the top 10 catchers in baseball right now. Having him as a backup is quite a luxury.

If I Were In Charge, I Would: The Indians are good enough that they don’t have to do much on the free agent market. They could use a quality corner outfielder, but with Milton Bradley out of the picture (due to his history with Wedge), the only free agent who fits that description is Fukudome. So, target Fukudome… but if they don’t get him, it’s no tragedy.

Now, here’s where things get interesting. The Johan Santana situation has gotten tons of media attention, and rightfully so. But what seems to have gone largely ignored is the fact that the Indians, with Sabathia, have the same issue to address; if anything, C.C. should have a little more trade value than Johan, because he’s a bit younger and is making $3 million less next year.

There are all kinds of options here. But the crucial difference between the Indians and Twins is that the Indians can easily justify holding onto their ace. So if they don’t find a deal to their liking, it’s no great loss. But they absolutely should explore things a little. If they can get a package that includes someone who could quite competently fill Sabathia’s rotation spot (Billingsley, Hughes), they should jump at it.

I’d also make a run at Miguel Cabrera, using Carmona as bait. None of the other teams going after Cabrera are going to offer up a guy with a Cy Young candidate season on his resume. But of course, the Indians can afford to lose Carmona (partly because he’s not the ace people might think he is, and partly because of their depth).

Damnitmike · 11-24-2007, 10:05 AM

I'm not so sure I'd underestimate Carmona just yet. I think he did a superb job. And listening to other players on their comments about his 'stuff', I think there's something there...

I'm not so high on Miller....he just doesn't stay healthy.

A Big Bopper in the outfield would be sweeet......trash the platooners.....although I will say JMike seems like a very good 4th outfielder.

JMUplayer · 11-30-2007, 01:09 AM

Ask Torii Hunter what he thinks about Carmona.............

unreal654 · 11-30-2007, 10:33 AM

Thank you for the input Heltonfan... great work.

It will be interesting to see how the Indians lineup shakes out by the end of March. I think the organization wants to give Marte another shot at third base after seeing what happened to Brandon Phillips. Blake has the edge for now, however.

Who starts at second? Asdrubal seems to be the favorite going into spring training, but then where does that leave Josh Barfield? Is it finally be time to shift everyone to the left? (Peralta at 3rd, Cabrera at short, Barfield at second) Or is there another option? Barfield's biggest asset is his glove, and if the bat starts to come alive during spring training, he will surely push for a job at second.

Ah yes, and then there is the never ending debate on what to do about the corner positions in the outfield. Trade? It's possible, but the Indians would have to give up an Adam Miller, Franklin Gutierrez, or Kelly Shoppach type player. To me, Jason Bay seems to be the most likely candidate for the Indians to aquire. Bay is owed about 13 million for the next two years; so he will fit Shapiro's budget. Jason Bay's decline in 2007 is cause for concern, but Shapiro will pull the trigger if the price is right.

Miguel Cabrera is a nice thought, but just not practical. The Marlins asking price is much too high for the Tribe. To aquire Cabrera, the Indians would sacrifice their long-term ability to stay competitive.

Is it spring yet?

ACrank · 12-09-2007, 09:31 PM

Trading Carmona to make a run at Cabrera would have been extremely wrong, based the uncertain status of CC.

I agree about trading CC though, but I can understand why the Indians might not be willing to do that.

unreal654 · 12-12-2007, 09:47 AM

The only way I see the Indians ever CONSIDERING trading C.C. Sabathia is if they are 20 games out of first place at the trade deadline

unless the indians completely choke this year, c.c. ain't goin' nowhere

ACrank · 12-14-2007, 10:50 PM

The flip side says - if the Indians don't think they can sign CC long term, and they see what Arizona traded for Haren, what Boston and the Yankees are supposedly offering for Santana, and what the Dodgers might trade for Bedard - Shapiro could make a good trade that would set the Indians back in 08., but help them in 09.

ACrank · 01-26-2008, 09:01 AM

I've adapted my opinion on a possible trade of CC.

I just don't know if the market is there for a potential trade. Going into the offseason if you consider the potential teams - big monied teams, or ones who may be one missing piece away from a WS run then they seem to break down to teams who already made their deal (Arizona), teams who don't seem to be that interested in adding anyone like CC (both LA teams) and the teams in the Santana derby (both NY teams and Boston). If the Santana deal finally happens and the return is as big as it should be, then perhaps there could be a market for a potential deal. But by that point ST would be right around the corner, and Shapiro probably won't want to shake the team up that much going into the season.

11-23-2007, 11:21 PM	#1 (permalink)
Heltonfan Moderator Join Date: Nov 2006 Location: Yerevan, Armenia Posts: 833	Team Spotlight: Cleveland Indians The Indians are one of the best organizations in the game. Mark Shapiro’s trading record is second to none, and with the exception of the apparent fixation on a “proven closer” (how else do you explain Wickman and Borowski?), the Indians have shown themselves to be pretty statistically savvy. They’re easily the favorites in the AL Central, and the future, even assuming that C.C. Sabathia leaves next winter, is quite bright. Summary Statistics Rotation: +18 Bullpen: -3 Lineup: +42 Bench: +11 Defense: +5 W-L record: 89-73 Rotation Sabathia 3.08 Carmona 3.81 Westbrook 3.85 Lee 4.35 Byrd 4.54 Carmona was a Cy Young candidate this year. Westbrook went 6-9 with a 4.32 ERA. And yet they project to be basically the same pitcher. There are several reasons for this: 1)Carmona was incredibly lucky this year, both in terms of BABIP and situational luck. His ERA should have been a run higher than it actually was. 2)Westbrook has a track record. Carmona doesn’t. 3)Component-wise, they are basically the same pitcher. Carmona struck out 15% of the batters he faced, and walked 8%. Westbrook struck out 14% and walked 9%. And both are extreme groundballers. The net effect of all this is that Carmona, in all likelihood, is one of the more overrated pitchers around right now. The Indians also have plenty of depth behind the front five, with youngsters Jeremy Sowers (4.54), Aaron Laffey (4.65), and Adam Miller (4.58). I absolutely loathe Sowers as a pitcher, though; the guy has AA stuff, and doesn’t locate it particularly well. It’s pathetic. It amazes me that he gets anyone out at all. He’s a distant #8 on this depth chart, as far as I’m concerned. Bullpen Borowski 4.16 Betancourt 2.64 Perez 3.85 Fultz 3.82 Mastny 3.62 Mujica 4.08 Lewis 3.28 That’s a pretty good bullpen. It would be a great one if Borowski and Betancourt switched roles. Lineup C: Martinez 4.21 (.301, 0) 1B: Garko 1.00 (.266, -3) 2B: Cabrera 1.31 (.244, 4) SS: Peralta 3.32 (.281, -4) 3B: Marte 1.38 (.254, -1) LF: Francisco 1.27 (.260, -1) CF: Sizemore 5.20 (.309, 0) RF: Gutierrez 2.18 (.258, 8) DH: Hafner 4.29 (.319) Hafner’s ABR dropped 79 points from 2006 to 2007. He’s a great rebound candidate. This is an easy group of players to get a handle on. Great talent up the middle, mediocre on the corners. Bench Shoppach .254 Barfield .244 Blake .256 Dellucci .257 Kelly Shoppach is one of the top 10 catchers in baseball right now. Having him as a backup is quite a luxury. If I Were In Charge, I Would: The Indians are good enough that they don’t have to do much on the free agent market. They could use a quality corner outfielder, but with Milton Bradley out of the picture (due to his history with Wedge), the only free agent who fits that description is Fukudome. So, target Fukudome… but if they don’t get him, it’s no tragedy. Now, here’s where things get interesting. The Johan Santana situation has gotten tons of media attention, and rightfully so. But what seems to have gone largely ignored is the fact that the Indians, with Sabathia, have the same issue to address; if anything, C.C. should have a little more trade value than Johan, because he’s a bit younger and is making $3 million less next year. There are all kinds of options here. But the crucial difference between the Indians and Twins is that the Indians can easily justify holding onto their ace. So if they don’t find a deal to their liking, it’s no great loss. But they absolutely should explore things a little. If they can get a package that includes someone who could quite competently fill Sabathia’s rotation spot (Billingsley, Hughes), they should jump at it. I’d also make a run at Miguel Cabrera, using Carmona as bait. None of the other teams going after Cabrera are going to offer up a guy with a Cy Young candidate season on his resume. But of course, the Indians can afford to lose Carmona (partly because he’s not the ace people might think he is, and partly because of their depth).

11-24-2007, 10:05 AM	#2 (permalink)
Damnitmike Member Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 65	I'm not so sure I'd underestimate Carmona just yet. I think he did a superb job. And listening to other players on their comments about his 'stuff', I think there's something there... I'm not so high on Miller....he just doesn't stay healthy. A Big Bopper in the outfield would be sweeet......trash the platooners.....although I will say JMike seems like a very good 4th outfielder. __________________ Never argue with an idiot. First, they drag you down to their level. Then, they beat you with experience. Stop In To The Tribe Zone! Come Get Your Indians Toolbar! This Thing Rocks! Check it out Here!

11-30-2007, 01:09 AM	#3 (permalink)
JMUplayer Member Join Date: Jan 2007 Posts: 204	Ask Torii Hunter what he thinks about Carmona.............

11-30-2007, 10:33 AM	#4 (permalink)
unreal654 Member Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 325	Thank you for the input Heltonfan... great work. It will be interesting to see how the Indians lineup shakes out by the end of March. I think the organization wants to give Marte another shot at third base after seeing what happened to Brandon Phillips. Blake has the edge for now, however. Who starts at second? Asdrubal seems to be the favorite going into spring training, but then where does that leave Josh Barfield? Is it finally be time to shift everyone to the left? (Peralta at 3rd, Cabrera at short, Barfield at second) Or is there another option? Barfield's biggest asset is his glove, and if the bat starts to come alive during spring training, he will surely push for a job at second. Ah yes, and then there is the never ending debate on what to do about the corner positions in the outfield. Trade? It's possible, but the Indians would have to give up an Adam Miller, Franklin Gutierrez, or Kelly Shoppach type player. To me, Jason Bay seems to be the most likely candidate for the Indians to aquire. Bay is owed about 13 million for the next two years; so he will fit Shapiro's budget. Jason Bay's decline in 2007 is cause for concern, but Shapiro will pull the trigger if the price is right. Miguel Cabrera is a nice thought, but just not practical. The Marlins asking price is much too high for the Tribe. To aquire Cabrera, the Indians would sacrifice their long-term ability to stay competitive. Is it spring yet?

12-09-2007, 09:31 PM	#5 (permalink)
ACrank Rookie Member Join Date: Dec 2006 Posts: 13	Trading Carmona to make a run at Cabrera would have been extremely wrong, based the uncertain status of CC. I agree about trading CC though, but I can understand why the Indians might not be willing to do that.

12-12-2007, 09:47 AM	#6 (permalink)
unreal654 Member Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 325	The only way I see the Indians ever CONSIDERING trading C.C. Sabathia is if they are 20 games out of first place at the trade deadline unless the indians completely choke this year, c.c. ain't goin' nowhere

12-14-2007, 10:50 PM	#7 (permalink)
ACrank Rookie Member Join Date: Dec 2006 Posts: 13	The flip side says - if the Indians don't think they can sign CC long term, and they see what Arizona traded for Haren, what Boston and the Yankees are supposedly offering for Santana, and what the Dodgers might trade for Bedard - Shapiro could make a good trade that would set the Indians back in 08., but help them in 09.

01-26-2008, 09:01 AM	#8 (permalink)
ACrank Rookie Member Join Date: Dec 2006 Posts: 13	I've adapted my opinion on a possible trade of CC. I just don't know if the market is there for a potential trade. Going into the offseason if you consider the potential teams - big monied teams, or ones who may be one missing piece away from a WS run then they seem to break down to teams who already made their deal (Arizona), teams who don't seem to be that interested in adding anyone like CC (both LA teams) and the teams in the Santana derby (both NY teams and Boston). If the Santana deal finally happens and the return is as big as it should be, then perhaps there could be a market for a potential deal. But by that point ST would be right around the corner, and Shapiro probably won't want to shake the team up that much going into the season.