Vindication part one: Bye Bye Omar

sweick · 10-01-2007, 12:06 AM

With the end of the season that finishes the rebuilding, I'm going to go over why some controversial decisions were the correct ones to make.

Let's start with one of the more argumentative ones, letting Omar go and replacing him with Jhonny.

Jhonny Peralta is an example of what Moneyball was talking about, people keep looking at what a player can't do instead of what he can and does do. (Looking at you Sheldon Ocker.)

Let us compare the past three seasons of Omar Vizquel with the past three seasons of Jhonny. As of Saturday, Omar's combined VORP was 29.5 while Jhonny is 88.6, or a total of near 60 runs more, or about 6 wins.

Even using the hardest defensive stats on Jhonny, it is hard for Omar to overcome it. Using Dewan's Plus/Minus system, Omar would have to have made over 200 more plays than Jhonny, a play being worth about .3 of a run. While this season might not be typical, Omar as of Friday made 20+ plays above the average fielder this season while Jhonny wasn't listed with the worst, we'll assume that he's within spitting difference and give him a -15, for a 35 plays difference. Even with last season's suckatude, I don't see Jhonny 200 plays worse.

Other defensive metrics have Jhonny closer to Omar.

But even if the defense did overcome the offense, it would still have made sense to let the expensive older player leave. Jhonny has proven Shapiro correct. It allowed more flexibility while letting a young player develop.

OTOH, signing Aaron Boone...

bedir than average · 10-01-2007, 12:13 AM

Quote:

a play being worth about .3 of a run

Except a play is actually worth about .8 of a run

So using your 35 play difference Peralta is worth three wins less on defense.

It is also apparent though that the ledger is still in Peralta's favor, so I'm quibbling.

Please, continue

sweick · 10-01-2007, 10:15 AM

Fair enough, .8 runs it is. (I could argue baseball isn't linear, but let's just go with the basics.)

Now I don't have Dewan's stats for 05/06 with me, but I did check The Hardball Times RZR, which shows Omar the far better defensive player, but by only 85 plays in the zone those three season (Multiply Omar's RZR by Jhonny's chances in zone, subtract Jhonny's converted outs). Jhonny seems to make more OOZ plays so if we credit those 21 extra out, we get 64 plays. That's about 52 runs over three seasons. Even if we ignore the OOZ plays, we get 68 runs and thus Jhonny is an equivalent player to Omar.

I believe Dewan's Plus/Minus is much harsher on Jhonny than any other system. Most had Jhonny as a good defender in 05, but he was negative according to Dewan's system.

No matter how you cut it, declining to resign Omar was the correct decision.

1Perry · 10-01-2007, 12:16 PM

Few complained when Omar was let go. Now Phillips............
Kouz........

Damnitmike · 10-01-2007, 06:15 PM

Sweick, nice job with the numbers. The trouble is, as bedir makes a point, which numbers are correct?

If you look at cold hard numbers, hitter vs hitter, Jhonny has the edge....probably his only one.

Numbers just aren't always the whole picture. I could go on about fundamental baseball but I won't....Fundamentally, who has the edge?

Sweeet play by Omar this season, the man is still a defensive marvel.

Nobody out.....runners on 1st and 2nd......
Groundball to the 2nd baseman, he flips the ball to Vizquel.....
Omar slides across 2nd base, then turns and fires to 3rd, nailing the runner there as he took a wide turn of the base....

Classic Omar....

And numbers (last I checked) would put Omar into the HOF ahead of Ozzie....Is he a shoe in?

Whats a player like Omar do for the fan base? Omar retires as an Indian, possible HOFer....

Do most fans see any impact a Kenny Lofton has with his return to Cleveland? Is that sabermetrical? (sabermetrical a word?)

If you look at just the numbers, in my opinion, your missing the entire picture.

Unfortunately, the entire picture is made up of each individuals own perceptions of the game.....their experiences, common sense, perceptions, understanding of the game, beliefs, etc, etc....

And thats why we're here....to hopefully make us all smarter.....I for one, didn't know how they valued 'a play'....

1Perry · 10-01-2007, 07:41 PM

I do agree that numbers alone do not tell the entire story. Peralta had a decent year this year. He was painful to watch last year.

It would have been tough for the Indians to have offered Omar the deal the Giants did.

Damnitmike · 10-02-2007, 07:03 PM

I just can't take nothing away from Omar....and comparing him to Peralta right now doesn't serve alot of purpose.

Compare Peralta to Omar , say, 10-15 years from now.

These are just 2 different players.

I like Jhonny, but Asdrubal is really looking superb. I'm thinking he's the next generation Omar....better hitting, better D, good fundamentals....

I think the best is yet to come.

sweick · 10-03-2007, 01:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Damnitmike

I just can't take nothing away from Omar....and comparing him to Peralta right now doesn't serve alot of purpose.

Compare Peralta to Omar , say, 10-15 years from now.

These are just 2 different players.

I like Jhonny, but Asdrubal is really looking superb. I'm thinking he's the next generation Omar....better hitting, better D, good fundamentals....

I think the best is yet to come.

Thing is, we weren't offered the Omar of say 95-01, but rather a choice of Omar in 05-07 at a high price or play Jhonny and use the funds elsewhere. I think everyone agrees that Jhonny will ultimately be moved from SS at some point in his career. That point isn't now, as even Dewan doesn't have Jhonny as one of the worst SS this season.

I've been looking at defensive numbers and based on a very very small sample size, it looks like AC might be a vastly better 2B than SS. So he might be more Robbie than Omar defensively, but much more Omar than Robbie offensively. I can live with that.

As far as Kous, 1Perry, it will depend on if Barfield hits. There might be parallels to Phillips as if you cut Barfield short he might just be another who hits to his minor league numbers elsewhere.

But at least it won't be to keep an older veteran over letting the younger player play. Belliard & Boone, oh well.

1Perry · 10-03-2007, 07:14 PM

Barfield may not be playing in Cleveland next year. I wouldn't be surprised to see him moved. Kouz played a decent third this year. The Indians still don't have a long term answer there.

ACrank · 10-09-2007, 09:45 AM

Barfield will be in the Indians organization next year - whether its Buffalo or Cleveland remains to be seen. There is too much there to give up on.

Meanwhile, SD is talking about moving Kouzmanoff to the OF - something I never thought would be a possibility due to his back issues.

Back on topic: Excellent thread. I've always been of the opinion that Peralta's biggest problem is that he isn't Omar.

Damnitmike · 10-09-2007, 09:03 PM

Acrank.....and thats the trouble with a Peralta following an Omar....the comparisons will always be there...

And we all knew it would happen the first day Peralta was named the Indians starting SS....

But let us move on...
My big gripe so far with Jhonny is he needs more hustle.....And that baserunning boner with 2 outs during the Yanks series when Lofton rips a drive into the outfield really scrapes a nerve.....

Jhonny, you simply have to be headsup in that situation....you can't kill a 2 out rally like that...!!!!!

1Perry · 10-09-2007, 09:43 PM

The announcers pointed out a couple times how lazy he is getting to a ball also. He is too willing to wait for the ball to get to him as opposed to going after it.

In the big picture he did have a good series and I already stated that I understood why he is here and not Omar but it will be interesting to see how the infield shakes out next year.

1Perry · 10-10-2007, 10:56 AM

Not really the place to put this and since it's old news I really didn't feel like starting a new thread but Lofton was on ESPN and he was asked about LeBron wearing the Yankee's cap.

He said that the team really didn't appreciate it. That it's fine for him to be a Yankee's fan, just don't wear the cap to the stadium.

10-01-2007, 12:06 AM	#1 (permalink)
sweick Rookie Member Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 8	Vindication part one: Bye Bye Omar With the end of the season that finishes the rebuilding, I'm going to go over why some controversial decisions were the correct ones to make. Let's start with one of the more argumentative ones, letting Omar go and replacing him with Jhonny. Jhonny Peralta is an example of what Moneyball was talking about, people keep looking at what a player can't do instead of what he can and does do. (Looking at you Sheldon Ocker.) Let us compare the past three seasons of Omar Vizquel with the past three seasons of Jhonny. As of Saturday, Omar's combined VORP was 29.5 while Jhonny is 88.6, or a total of near 60 runs more, or about 6 wins. Even using the hardest defensive stats on Jhonny, it is hard for Omar to overcome it. Using Dewan's Plus/Minus system, Omar would have to have made over 200 more plays than Jhonny, a play being worth about .3 of a run. While this season might not be typical, Omar as of Friday made 20+ plays above the average fielder this season while Jhonny wasn't listed with the worst, we'll assume that he's within spitting difference and give him a -15, for a 35 plays difference. Even with last season's suckatude, I don't see Jhonny 200 plays worse. Other defensive metrics have Jhonny closer to Omar. But even if the defense did overcome the offense, it would still have made sense to let the expensive older player leave. Jhonny has proven Shapiro correct. It allowed more flexibility while letting a young player develop. OTOH, signing Aaron Boone...

10-01-2007, 06:15 PM	#5 (permalink)
Damnitmike Member Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 65	Sweick, nice job with the numbers. The trouble is, as bedir makes a point, which numbers are correct? If you look at cold hard numbers, hitter vs hitter, Jhonny has the edge....probably his only one. Numbers just aren't always the whole picture. I could go on about fundamental baseball but I won't....Fundamentally, who has the edge? Sweeet play by Omar this season, the man is still a defensive marvel. Nobody out.....runners on 1st and 2nd...... Groundball to the 2nd baseman, he flips the ball to Vizquel..... Omar slides across 2nd base, then turns and fires to 3rd, nailing the runner there as he took a wide turn of the base.... Classic Omar.... And numbers (last I checked) would put Omar into the HOF ahead of Ozzie....Is he a shoe in? Whats a player like Omar do for the fan base? Omar retires as an Indian, possible HOFer.... Do most fans see any impact a Kenny Lofton has with his return to Cleveland? Is that sabermetrical? (sabermetrical a word?) If you look at just the numbers, in my opinion, your missing the entire picture. Unfortunately, the entire picture is made up of each individuals own perceptions of the game.....their experiences, common sense, perceptions, understanding of the game, beliefs, etc, etc.... And thats why we're here....to hopefully make us all smarter.....I for one, didn't know how they valued 'a play'.... __________________ Never argue with an idiot. First, they drag you down to their level. Then, they beat you with experience. Stop In To The Tribe Zone! Come Get Your Indians Toolbar! This Thing Rocks! Check it out Here!

10-02-2007, 07:03 PM	#7 (permalink)
Damnitmike Member Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 65	I just can't take nothing away from Omar....and comparing him to Peralta right now doesn't serve alot of purpose. Compare Peralta to Omar , say, 10-15 years from now. These are just 2 different players. I like Jhonny, but Asdrubal is really looking superb. I'm thinking he's the next generation Omar....better hitting, better D, good fundamentals.... I think the best is yet to come. __________________ Never argue with an idiot. First, they drag you down to their level. Then, they beat you with experience. Stop In To The Tribe Zone! Come Get Your Indians Toolbar! This Thing Rocks! Check it out Here!

10-09-2007, 09:03 PM	#11 (permalink)
Damnitmike Member Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 65	Acrank.....and thats the trouble with a Peralta following an Omar....the comparisons will always be there... And we all knew it would happen the first day Peralta was named the Indians starting SS.... But let us move on... My big gripe so far with Jhonny is he needs more hustle.....And that baserunning boner with 2 outs during the Yanks series when Lofton rips a drive into the outfield really scrapes a nerve..... Jhonny, you simply have to be headsup in that situation....you can't kill a 2 out rally like that...!!!!! __________________ Never argue with an idiot. First, they drag you down to their level. Then, they beat you with experience. Stop In To The Tribe Zone! Come Get Your Indians Toolbar! This Thing Rocks! Check it out Here!

10-01-2007, 10:15 AM	#3 (permalink)
sweick Rookie Member Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 8	Fair enough, .8 runs it is. (I could argue baseball isn't linear, but let's just go with the basics.) Now I don't have Dewan's stats for 05/06 with me, but I did check The Hardball Times RZR, which shows Omar the far better defensive player, but by only 85 plays in the zone those three season (Multiply Omar's RZR by Jhonny's chances in zone, subtract Jhonny's converted outs). Jhonny seems to make more OOZ plays so if we credit those 21 extra out, we get 64 plays. That's about 52 runs over three seasons. Even if we ignore the OOZ plays, we get 68 runs and thus Jhonny is an equivalent player to Omar. I believe Dewan's Plus/Minus is much harsher on Jhonny than any other system. Most had Jhonny as a good defender in 05, but he was negative according to Dewan's system. No matter how you cut it, declining to resign Omar was the correct decision.

10-01-2007, 12:16 PM	#4 (permalink)
1Perry Hall of Famer Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 6,617	Few complained when Omar was let go. Now Phillips............ Kouz........

10-01-2007, 07:41 PM	#6 (permalink)
1Perry Hall of Famer Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 6,617	I do agree that numbers alone do not tell the entire story. Peralta had a decent year this year. He was painful to watch last year. It would have been tough for the Indians to have offered Omar the deal the Giants did.

10-03-2007, 07:14 PM	#9 (permalink)
1Perry Hall of Famer Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 6,617	Barfield may not be playing in Cleveland next year. I wouldn't be surprised to see him moved. Kouz played a decent third this year. The Indians still don't have a long term answer there.

10-09-2007, 09:45 AM	#10 (permalink)
ACrank Rookie Member Join Date: Dec 2006 Posts: 13	Barfield will be in the Indians organization next year - whether its Buffalo or Cleveland remains to be seen. There is too much there to give up on. Meanwhile, SD is talking about moving Kouzmanoff to the OF - something I never thought would be a possibility due to his back issues. Back on topic: Excellent thread. I've always been of the opinion that Peralta's biggest problem is that he isn't Omar.

10-09-2007, 09:43 PM	#12 (permalink)
1Perry Hall of Famer Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 6,617	The announcers pointed out a couple times how lazy he is getting to a ball also. He is too willing to wait for the ball to get to him as opposed to going after it. In the big picture he did have a good series and I already stated that I understood why he is here and not Omar but it will be interesting to see how the infield shakes out next year.

10-10-2007, 10:56 AM	#13 (permalink)
1Perry Hall of Famer Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 6,617	Not really the place to put this and since it's old news I really didn't feel like starting a new thread but Lofton was on ESPN and he was asked about LeBron wearing the Yankee's cap. He said that the team really didn't appreciate it. That it's fine for him to be a Yankee's fan, just don't wear the cap to the stadium.