Team Spotlight: Cincinnati Reds

Heltonfan · 11-09-2007, 12:01 AM

The Reds are in line for a substantial improvement over this year’s 72-win campaign. I doubt that they’ll have enough to hang with the Cubs and the Brewers, but it’s certainly not out of the question.

Summary Statistics
Rotation: +14
Bullpen: -13
Lineup: -17
Bench: +3
Defense: 0
W-L record: 79-83

Rotation

Harang 3.51
Arroyo 4.03
Belisle 4.32
Bailey 4.46
Ramirez 4.71

How strange is it to think that the Reds’ strength is starting pitching? Harang is probably at the very top of Billy Beane’s “wish I could have that guy back” list. And the 2-4 starters are solid enough, with a chance to be quite a bit better than that. Homer Bailey wasn’t particularly good in his first taste of the big leagues, but he was better than the 5.76 ERA would indicate. I don’t know what they’re going to do about the #5 spot; Elizardo Ramirez is still in the organization, which is why he’s listed here, but he’s had injury problems and might not be an option.

Bullpen

Weathers 4.26
Bray 3.85
Majewski 4.27
Coffey 4.18
Stanton 4.15
Burton 4.40
Coutlangus 4.61

Ouch.

Lineup

C: Ross 0.94 (.227, 5)
1B: Votto 1.41 (.268, 0)
2B: Phillips 1.58 (.251, 0)
SS: Gonzalez 1.09 (.231, 3)
3B: Encarnacion 1.79 (.268, -4)
LF: Dunn 2.41 (.292, -8)
CF: Hamilton 3.65 (.282, 3)
RF: Griffey 0.43 (.261, -8)

There’s quite a bit of potential here, but the odds of it all coming together are pretty slim. Phillips isn’t likely to repeat his ’07 performance. Dunn is no star, but they still did the right thing in picking up his option… he’s certainly tradeable, and if nothing else, they’ll get draft picks next winter. The projections hate Griffey, and again, it’s not hard to see why. He stunk in 2006, is in his late 30s, has become a disaster in the field… there’s not a whole lot to like there. And that’s without even considering his durability issues.

Joey Votto is a much better player than Hatteberg, but he’s still nothing special… shouldn’t be much more than a league-average hitter. Expectations will be too high, after his September success (.321/.360/.548).

Bench

Valentin .236
Hatteberg .242
Keppinger .264
Hopper .232
Freel .228

Jeff Keppinger projects at .264, and played a solid shortstop when given the opportunity last year. Alex Gonzalez projects at .231. Keppinger is three years younger. This shouldn’t be a hard decision; Keppinger needs to be playing every day.

Jorge Cantu might not be able to crack the Opening Day roster, but with a .259 projection, he’s another guy worth mentioning. Although he’s probably the worst defensive infielder in the league.

If I Were in Charge, I Would: The Reds have a nice core to build around. The entire rotation is under contract through at least 2010, as are Votto, Phillips, Encarnacion, Hamilton, Keppinger, and uber-prospect Jay Bruce. I like their chances in ’09 better than their chances next year, but still, the ’08 Reds could certainly sneak into the playoffs if they play their cards right.

The most obvious thing to do, as mentioned above, is to get Keppinger in the starting lineup. This could be done by benching Gonzalez, or by dumping Griffey, moving Encarnacion to the outfield, and playing Keppinger at 3B. My preferred choice is a combination of the two: play Keppinger at SS, and dump both Gonzalez and Griffey. Both are coming off strong years, and should have some value; I’ll bet they could find someone willing to pay $10 million of Junior’s salary, and they wouldn’t have any trouble unloading Gonzalez (Toronto and St. Louis are obvious fits). Ideally, they’d be able to acquire a competent outfielder through these deals; if not, handing RF over to Norris Hopper for a couple months wouldn’t kill them (if you’re looking at Hopper’s projection and finding the previous statement incomprehensible, note that he’s a terrific defensive player).

Having freed up that money, the Reds can go out and buy themselves some pitching. They’re not quite at the point in the success cycle where signing a Lohse or Silva is advisable – that’s a substantial multi-year commitment to a guy who might very well be superfluous by the time they’re really ready to contend– but a one-year deal, for someone like Colon, Jennings, Matt Clement, or Kenny Rogers, would make a lot of sense.

And then, of course, there’s the bullpen. This is a team that doesn’t need to spend much on hitting or starting pitching, and needs a relief ace in the worst way… in other words, this is an absolutely perfect fit for Francisco Cordero. I’d try to grab an Affeldt or Julio as well, just to add some depth (or Gagne, if they have more money than I think they do).

Now, a couple paragraphs up, I referred to playing Norris Hopper in RF “for a couple months”. There’s a reason for that. After a couple months in AAA, Jay Bruce should be ready to be a real contributor… and by having him start the year in the minors, they delay his free agency (same deal as with the Diamondbacks and Upton).

Put all this together, add in breakout years from two of Bailey/Votto/Encarnacion/random reliever, hope for Dunn to deliver in his contract year, and you've got a wild card contender, without detracting from the team's long-term future in any way.

11-09-2007, 12:01 AM	#1 (permalink)
Heltonfan Moderator Join Date: Nov 2006 Location: Yerevan, Armenia Posts: 855	Team Spotlight: Cincinnati Reds The Reds are in line for a substantial improvement over this year’s 72-win campaign. I doubt that they’ll have enough to hang with the Cubs and the Brewers, but it’s certainly not out of the question. Summary Statistics Rotation: +14 Bullpen: -13 Lineup: -17 Bench: +3 Defense: 0 W-L record: 79-83 Rotation Harang 3.51 Arroyo 4.03 Belisle 4.32 Bailey 4.46 Ramirez 4.71 How strange is it to think that the Reds’ strength is starting pitching? Harang is probably at the very top of Billy Beane’s “wish I could have that guy back” list. And the 2-4 starters are solid enough, with a chance to be quite a bit better than that. Homer Bailey wasn’t particularly good in his first taste of the big leagues, but he was better than the 5.76 ERA would indicate. I don’t know what they’re going to do about the #5 spot; Elizardo Ramirez is still in the organization, which is why he’s listed here, but he’s had injury problems and might not be an option. Bullpen Weathers 4.26 Bray 3.85 Majewski 4.27 Coffey 4.18 Stanton 4.15 Burton 4.40 Coutlangus 4.61 Ouch. Lineup C: Ross 0.94 (.227, 5) 1B: Votto 1.41 (.268, 0) 2B: Phillips 1.58 (.251, 0) SS: Gonzalez 1.09 (.231, 3) 3B: Encarnacion 1.79 (.268, -4) LF: Dunn 2.41 (.292, -8) CF: Hamilton 3.65 (.282, 3) RF: Griffey 0.43 (.261, -8) There’s quite a bit of potential here, but the odds of it all coming together are pretty slim. Phillips isn’t likely to repeat his ’07 performance. Dunn is no star, but they still did the right thing in picking up his option… he’s certainly tradeable, and if nothing else, they’ll get draft picks next winter. The projections hate Griffey, and again, it’s not hard to see why. He stunk in 2006, is in his late 30s, has become a disaster in the field… there’s not a whole lot to like there. And that’s without even considering his durability issues. Joey Votto is a much better player than Hatteberg, but he’s still nothing special… shouldn’t be much more than a league-average hitter. Expectations will be too high, after his September success (.321/.360/.548). Bench Valentin .236 Hatteberg .242 Keppinger .264 Hopper .232 Freel .228 Jeff Keppinger projects at .264, and played a solid shortstop when given the opportunity last year. Alex Gonzalez projects at .231. Keppinger is three years younger. This shouldn’t be a hard decision; Keppinger needs to be playing every day. Jorge Cantu might not be able to crack the Opening Day roster, but with a .259 projection, he’s another guy worth mentioning. Although he’s probably the worst defensive infielder in the league. If I Were in Charge, I Would: The Reds have a nice core to build around. The entire rotation is under contract through at least 2010, as are Votto, Phillips, Encarnacion, Hamilton, Keppinger, and uber-prospect Jay Bruce. I like their chances in ’09 better than their chances next year, but still, the ’08 Reds could certainly sneak into the playoffs if they play their cards right. The most obvious thing to do, as mentioned above, is to get Keppinger in the starting lineup. This could be done by benching Gonzalez, or by dumping Griffey, moving Encarnacion to the outfield, and playing Keppinger at 3B. My preferred choice is a combination of the two: play Keppinger at SS, and dump both Gonzalez and Griffey. Both are coming off strong years, and should have some value; I’ll bet they could find someone willing to pay $10 million of Junior’s salary, and they wouldn’t have any trouble unloading Gonzalez (Toronto and St. Louis are obvious fits). Ideally, they’d be able to acquire a competent outfielder through these deals; if not, handing RF over to Norris Hopper for a couple months wouldn’t kill them (if you’re looking at Hopper’s projection and finding the previous statement incomprehensible, note that he’s a terrific defensive player). Having freed up that money, the Reds can go out and buy themselves some pitching. They’re not quite at the point in the success cycle where signing a Lohse or Silva is advisable – that’s a substantial multi-year commitment to a guy who might very well be superfluous by the time they’re really ready to contend– but a one-year deal, for someone like Colon, Jennings, Matt Clement, or Kenny Rogers, would make a lot of sense. And then, of course, there’s the bullpen. This is a team that doesn’t need to spend much on hitting or starting pitching, and needs a relief ace in the worst way… in other words, this is an absolutely perfect fit for Francisco Cordero. I’d try to grab an Affeldt or Julio as well, just to add some depth (or Gagne, if they have more money than I think they do). Now, a couple paragraphs up, I referred to playing Norris Hopper in RF “for a couple months”. There’s a reason for that. After a couple months in AAA, Jay Bruce should be ready to be a real contributor… and by having him start the year in the minors, they delay his free agency (same deal as with the Diamondbacks and Upton). Put all this together, add in breakout years from two of Bailey/Votto/Encarnacion/random reliever, hope for Dunn to deliver in his contract year, and you've got a wild card contender, without detracting from the team's long-term future in any way.