Team Spotlight: Chicago Cubs

Heltonfan · 12-03-2007, 01:32 AM

I don’t know whether it’s luck or skill (I’m guessing luck, because it takes a special kind of idiot to sign Jason Marquis), but on the whole, Jim Hendry has actually done quite well with his free agent signings. Derrek Lee at $13 million a year is a fine value. Aramis Ramirez’s contract, although it didn’t look very good at the time, is now below market value, thanks to inflation and Ramirez’s strong 2007 season. Mark DeRosa was a real bargain. Ted Lilly was a 5-WAR pitcher last year; he still only projects to be around league-average, but that’s well worth the $10 million a year these days. Carlos Zambrano’s contract extension was fair for both sides. $4 million a year for Bob Howry is a steal. And the big one: thanks to inflation, Soriano’s contract is not any kind of liability. It’s not much of an asset, of course, but it’s not holding the Cubs back at all.

Toss in some big contributions from youngsters (Geovany Soto, Felix Pie, Carlos Marmol), and this is a heck of a team, maybe the best in the NL.

Summary Statistics
Rotation: +18
Bullpen: +17
Lineup: +33
Bench: -10
Defense: +20
W-L record: 88-74

Rotation

Zambrano 3.66
Hill 3.76
Lilly 4.08
Dempster 4.68
Marshall 4.72

That projection might sell Zambrano a bit short; he’s beaten his FIP by half a run or more in each of the past three years, so I think it’s safe to say that he’s one of the best BABIP-controlling pitchers around.

Lilly’s FIP, 2005-07: 4.72, 4.05, 3.70. The projection looks right. He’s not having another ’07.

Ryan Dempster, as you can see, doesn’t project to be a particularly good starting pitcher (which is no surprise, since he hasn’t been a particularly good reliever either). But I like the decision to move him into the rotation, if for no other reason than that it means the Cubs are likely to actually let their best reliever close out games next year.

Bullpen

Howry 3.30
Wood 3.39
Marmol 3.26
Wuertz 3.40
Ohman 3.88
Marquis 4.06
Cotts 4.43

This is an impressive group. If anything, that’s a conservative projection for Marmol; he had a 2.04 ERC in the big leagues this year, with 96 strikeouts in 69 innings. I can’t explain how he got a 10th-place MVP vote, but he had a magnificent season, no two ways about it.

Jason Marquis projects to be almost a league-average reliever. Which just goes to show that any remotely competent starter can put up decent numbers if used in relief.

The Cubs also have a guy named Carmen Pignatiello (4.52 projection). Which I mention only because Carmen Pignatiello is one of the more incredible baseball names I’ve come across in quite some time.

Lineup

C: Soto 3.14 (.279, 0)
1B: Lee 3.19 (.299, -2)
2B: DeRosa 2.16 (.254, 6)
SS: Cedeno 1.43 (.242, 1)
3B: Ramirez 3.32 (.289, -3)
LF: Soriano 3.77 (.285, 7)
CF: Pie 1.83 (.250, 3)
RF: Murton 1.95 (.269, -1)

Geovany Soto may have had the single most incredible breakout season I have ever seen. His yearly ABR progression: .202, .216, .308. That .308 was quite BABIP-heavy, but there’s no question that the guy can hit; 29 HR in 500 plate appearances between Iowa and Chicago is proof enough of that. He looks like a great candidate for Rookie of the Year.

Felix Pie had a rather unfortunate season: .215/.272/.333 in the big leagues, .362/.411/.563 in AAA. Flip those lines, and he’d be one of the most hyped young players in the game. Of course, as always, the proper thing to do is to combine the two lines, and doing so, we see that Pie put up an aggregate .241 ABR, perfectly in line with my pre-season projection (.238).

Anyway, this is an excellent lineup. Four guys who are well above average, and no real holes.

Bench

Blanco .175
Ward .259
Infante .237
Theriot .231
Pagan .232

Henry Blanco is a great defensive catcher, but no amount of defense can excuse a bat that awful.

If I Were in Charge, I Would: The Cubs’ rotation is impossible to upgrade without handing out an eight-figure deal. So is the lineup. The only negative thing I can say about the bullpen is that they don’t have a truly elite closer, but there’s really nothing they can do about that; because they have four very good relievers, Nathan isn’t worth nearly as much to them as he would be to a team like the Brewers or Tigers.

Beyond that, the only thing of any significance that they can do is bring in a catcher to replace Blanco. Rod Barajas has become a forgotten man in the midst of all this Torrealba/Lo Duca/Kendall/Estrada talk, but he’s a much better player than any of them, and would be excellent insurance in case Soto reverts to his pre-2007 uselessness.

There’s not much to do here, but that’s only because the existing roster is so solid across the board. They should be able to win the Central without adding any more big contracts. Obviously, though, if they want to add a Lohse or Kuroda, it wouldn’t hurt.

12-03-2007, 01:32 AM	#1 (permalink)
Heltonfan Moderator Join Date: Nov 2006 Location: Yerevan, Armenia Posts: 842	Team Spotlight: Chicago Cubs I don’t know whether it’s luck or skill (I’m guessing luck, because it takes a special kind of idiot to sign Jason Marquis), but on the whole, Jim Hendry has actually done quite well with his free agent signings. Derrek Lee at $13 million a year is a fine value. Aramis Ramirez’s contract, although it didn’t look very good at the time, is now below market value, thanks to inflation and Ramirez’s strong 2007 season. Mark DeRosa was a real bargain. Ted Lilly was a 5-WAR pitcher last year; he still only projects to be around league-average, but that’s well worth the $10 million a year these days. Carlos Zambrano’s contract extension was fair for both sides. $4 million a year for Bob Howry is a steal. And the big one: thanks to inflation, Soriano’s contract is not any kind of liability. It’s not much of an asset, of course, but it’s not holding the Cubs back at all. Toss in some big contributions from youngsters (Geovany Soto, Felix Pie, Carlos Marmol), and this is a heck of a team, maybe the best in the NL. Summary Statistics Rotation: +18 Bullpen: +17 Lineup: +33 Bench: -10 Defense: +20 W-L record: 88-74 Rotation Zambrano 3.66 Hill 3.76 Lilly 4.08 Dempster 4.68 Marshall 4.72 That projection might sell Zambrano a bit short; he’s beaten his FIP by half a run or more in each of the past three years, so I think it’s safe to say that he’s one of the best BABIP-controlling pitchers around. Lilly’s FIP, 2005-07: 4.72, 4.05, 3.70. The projection looks right. He’s not having another ’07. Ryan Dempster, as you can see, doesn’t project to be a particularly good starting pitcher (which is no surprise, since he hasn’t been a particularly good reliever either). But I like the decision to move him into the rotation, if for no other reason than that it means the Cubs are likely to actually let their best reliever close out games next year. Bullpen Howry 3.30 Wood 3.39 Marmol 3.26 Wuertz 3.40 Ohman 3.88 Marquis 4.06 Cotts 4.43 This is an impressive group. If anything, that’s a conservative projection for Marmol; he had a 2.04 ERC in the big leagues this year, with 96 strikeouts in 69 innings. I can’t explain how he got a 10th-place MVP vote, but he had a magnificent season, no two ways about it. Jason Marquis projects to be almost a league-average reliever. Which just goes to show that any remotely competent starter can put up decent numbers if used in relief. The Cubs also have a guy named Carmen Pignatiello (4.52 projection). Which I mention only because Carmen Pignatiello is one of the more incredible baseball names I’ve come across in quite some time. Lineup C: Soto 3.14 (.279, 0) 1B: Lee 3.19 (.299, -2) 2B: DeRosa 2.16 (.254, 6) SS: Cedeno 1.43 (.242, 1) 3B: Ramirez 3.32 (.289, -3) LF: Soriano 3.77 (.285, 7) CF: Pie 1.83 (.250, 3) RF: Murton 1.95 (.269, -1) Geovany Soto may have had the single most incredible breakout season I have ever seen. His yearly ABR progression: .202, .216, .308. That .308 was quite BABIP-heavy, but there’s no question that the guy can hit; 29 HR in 500 plate appearances between Iowa and Chicago is proof enough of that. He looks like a great candidate for Rookie of the Year. Felix Pie had a rather unfortunate season: .215/.272/.333 in the big leagues, .362/.411/.563 in AAA. Flip those lines, and he’d be one of the most hyped young players in the game. Of course, as always, the proper thing to do is to combine the two lines, and doing so, we see that Pie put up an aggregate .241 ABR, perfectly in line with my pre-season projection (.238). Anyway, this is an excellent lineup. Four guys who are well above average, and no real holes. Bench Blanco .175 Ward .259 Infante .237 Theriot .231 Pagan .232 Henry Blanco is a great defensive catcher, but no amount of defense can excuse a bat that awful. If I Were in Charge, I Would: The Cubs’ rotation is impossible to upgrade without handing out an eight-figure deal. So is the lineup. The only negative thing I can say about the bullpen is that they don’t have a truly elite closer, but there’s really nothing they can do about that; because they have four very good relievers, Nathan isn’t worth nearly as much to them as he would be to a team like the Brewers or Tigers. Beyond that, the only thing of any significance that they can do is bring in a catcher to replace Blanco. Rod Barajas has become a forgotten man in the midst of all this Torrealba/Lo Duca/Kendall/Estrada talk, but he’s a much better player than any of them, and would be excellent insurance in case Soto reverts to his pre-2007 uselessness. There’s not much to do here, but that’s only because the existing roster is so solid across the board. They should be able to win the Central without adding any more big contracts. Obviously, though, if they want to add a Lohse or Kuroda, it wouldn’t hurt.