Cities with remaining capacity for teams

[bedir than average]

Found this at BizJournals.com

The five markets without teams with the biggest Available Personal Income are Hartford, CT; Harrisburg, PA; Las Vegas, NV; Sarasota, FL; and Grand Rapids, MI

The top three regardless of team presence are NYC, Boston and LA.

There are 16 markets that are overextended most notably are PHX, Denver, Minneapolis and Miami. I say notable because all have 3 or more "top level" teams (teams in NFL, MLB, NBA, NHL and MLS). Phoenix also has a major stop on NASCAR and on the PGATour, but all of its pro-teams just got brand new stadia.

The link they provide to the Top 10 underutilized markets also has the best league for each.

NFL -2
MLB - 2 (both in close approximity to existing teams)
NBA - 3
NHL - 1
MLS - 2

...A Major League Baseball team, for example, requires an income base of at least $89.2 billion.

Baseball is the most expensive of the five sports. Major League Soccer is the least expensive, requiring a minimum total personal income of $16.1 billion. Bizjournals.com estimates the threshold for other leagues as: National Basketball Association, $38.4 billion; National Hockey League, $35.7 billion; and National Football League, $33.0 billion.

The study calculated each market's remaining capacity for pro sports by taking the area's total personal income and subtracting the amounts needed to support its existing big-league teams. (Further details on the methodology are available here.)

Here's how many markets qualified for each league:
Major League Soccer: 73
National Football League: 30
National Hockey League: 23
National Basketball Association: 19
Major League Baseball: 0

From these numbers it becomes rather apparent that MLB should not expand within the USA for some time, while the NFL can probably add several teams, or that there is definately room for a competing league like the upstart UFL.

Part of what intrigues me so much about MLS expansion is both that it lacks a national footprint at this time, and that it is the cheapest sport to enter.

In the NBA both Sacremento and Seattle are making a lot of noise about moving, with each targeting one of the two cities that bizjournals.com list as most capable of hosting a club.

And since it has been forward in the Predators to move? thread, Atlanta is not tapped out, but also does not have enough capacity to add MLS (the only league it is missing).

[DR3AMR]

I think you have to look at NYC for MLB.

As far as LV, I think Mr. Donaghy just ended that discussion for about a decade.

[bedir than average]

North Jersey was their number one market for MLB

[Zen653]

MLB definitely seems tapped out of new potential markets. Moving a third team into New York and a second team into Boston would likely work because both of the relocating clubs would be well-supported, and they would also create some necessary economic competition for the Yankees, Mets and Red Sox, thereby improving competitive balance. Brooklyn never got over the loss of the Dodgers and would be a logical place for the third New York team.

While Boston lost the Braves about 50 years ago, I think the situation is different today. Red Sox tickets are so expensive now (highest prices in all of baseball) that a lot of fans have been priced out of attending ballgames. If there were another MLB team on the scene, the demand for professional baseball could be met, and the Red Sox would be pressured into adjusting their unsympathetic business practices. The baseball fans of Boston are arguably the most enthusiastic fans of the game anywhere. Construct a new ballpark along the waterfront (where there's still plenty of room for development) and the fans will show up in droves to watch National League baseball. They won't abandon the Red Sox for purposes of rooting interests but they'll still show up to the other team's games in significant numbers. And future generations will develop alleigances to Boston's NL's entry.

I'm a bigtime Red Sox fan and I'd buy season tickets in a nano second if there were an NL team in town. I'd follow both teams with interest and only root against the NL club in head-to-head matchups against the Red Sox.

I also like the idea of seeing the NHL return to Hartford. The money is there for it and I think fan support would be better this time around. With the Bruins collapsing into irrelevancy in Boston, I think a decent to strong team in Hartford could rely on significant support from Boston. The drive to Hartford would be less than an hour for people who live southwest of Boston, and Connecticut alone would be able to support the team anyway. I think it's possible that an NBA team could succeed in Hartford as well but hockey is a safer bet because of the city's history with it.

[bedir than average]

Zen, the other MLB potential market is actually Riverside/SanBernandino CA with ZERO sports teams, but on the spread sheet it is included in the Greater LA basin.

Now, the largest market without MLB is also Hartford, and considering that you think both NYC and Boston would be decent, Hartford would have a small effect on both markets.

[bedir than average]

I think this may be the best place to ask, but how many teams, and how should they be distributed for a league to be truly "national?"

[SoCalBaseball]

Originally Posted by bedir than average

Zen, the other MLB potential market is actually Riverside/SanBernandino CA with ZERO sports teams, but on the spread sheet it is included in the Greater LA basin.

Now, the largest market without MLB is also Hartford, and considering that you think both NYC and Boston would be decent, Hartford would have a small effect on both markets.

The Riverside/San Bernardino Market (Inland Empire) has a very large population base (almost 4 million and growing), but any professional team would have to compete with the Angels/Dodgers, Ducks/Kings, and Lakers/Clippers. There is no NFL team in the LA basin, so it would be VERY cool if the Inland empire landed the NFL team for LA. Only problem is that there in no stadium that a NFL team could play in that currently exists.

[darsh999]

i think north jersey has great potential

[lcskumar]

Originally Posted by darsh999

i think north jersey has great potential

IT IS TRUE.

[bedir than average]

Originally Posted by bedir than average

I think this may be the best place to ask, but how many teams, and how should they be distributed for a league to be truly "national?"

I'm asking again, because I'm interested in the answer.

Should a league have to be in every region of the USA? Or would the NHL be a "National" league if every team left the South?

Is MLS a national league even though it only is in 11 US Markets, none in the South or Northwest?

[John F]

In the case of the NHL -- define national as they are an international league. Canadian national? All regions are represented sans the Canadian heartland (Saskatchewan, Manitoba). MLS has the US covered.

You can be a national league by representing every region but it gets boring when you lump teams in one specific region (ie -- the northeast corridor ) and loses national interest. MLS isn't geared towards the nation as soccer hasn't entirely caught on. 11 teams can adequately represent the entire nation but their placement matters...

[bedir than average]

I guess what I'm getting at is there a minimum number of teams that would indicate an adequete spread?

In MLS case, it doesn't have the Pacific NorthWest and its more than 10 Million people who could care about watching it on TV at all. This is especially true, as it isn't a top level league in the world, and so without a tiny bit of local interest someon is just going to watch the Premiership instead. By also ignoring the South the league misses out on huge populations probably well over 60 Million.

For the NHL I'm only referring to it as it exists in the USA, and not Candada as I dont' know enough about Canadian demographics to have a chat about that.

United States Population Map, USA Population Map, Population Density Map of United States, Population Map of USA, Population of Metropolitian Areas of USA

That link has a great map to visualize the population situation of the USA.

If you take all the markets over 2.5M add in Denver so the Mountain states get something that would be 19 markets.
Comparing the top leagues by team sport - MLS is only in 7 of those markets, the NHL is in 13, the NBA is in 15, the NFL is in 17, and MLB is in all of them.

[John F]

Bedir, 10 million people is nothing... There are 300 million US citizens and a 10 million resident neglected area is moot. In the south, that's another argument with 17 million in Florida alone... That being said -- a league is still NATIONAL if they neglect an area or not. MLS is not a regional league, that much is obvious despite the inadequate spread of teams.

[bedir than average]

I just ballparked the figure, though I will likely do the math of Top 40 markets which are not served by each league and that population. I'm betting for MLS at least that number is over HALF of the US population, maybe even about two thirds. That to me isn't a national league.

[John F]

yet what WOULD be? Without regional bias, really. How do you grade reach of any market anyway? I mean, the Northeast US/Canada are a huge area of population. LA is served by two teams, the mountain-west has a team, Houston, the midwest is served by Chicago/Columbus.

Major League Baseball was a national league with only 20 teams. It's simply perception to say it isn't. Just as it's perception that only Canada should have the NHL or can appreciate the NHL.