Realistic vision of MLB circa 2030

[DR3AMR]

The census bereau predicts that by the year 2030, two thirds of the population in the US will live in the Sunbelt. For those who don't know what the "Sunbelt" entitles, go look at a US map and draw a straight line from Charlotte to Los Angeles. Basically, anything south of that line falls within the Sunbelt. At that time, the extrapolated population of the United States will be somewhere close to 400 million people.

Given that predicted demographic trend, lets realistically discuss how MLB will look in the year 2030.

I'll just thrown some things out there to get the discussion going:

Will Detroit and Pittsburgh still have teams? Which cities are the most likely expansion candidates - San Antonio, Orlando, Jacksonville, Las Vegas, Memphis, New Orleans, Mexico City?

How will MLB deal with the expected continuation of the seperation between the have and have nots? How much of an effect will the new NY stadiums have on disparity? Is a third NY team viable? How will the Florida teams deal with their situations?

How will a Castro-less Cuba affect the MLB talent pool? Will there be an international draft?

[TheAJx]

I think Antonio will be a great sports town in the future. I go there all the time, so beleive me when I tell you, man that city absolutely adores the Spurs.

[bedir than average]

I don't know if there will be movement of teams from the North to the Sunbelt, but there willl certainly be expansion, both within the USA, and internationally.

I fully expect that there will be an affiliated "major league" in Asia with 10-16 teams by then, as well as another in Latin America.

Cities that are likely to have a team in 25 years inside the USA are the Triad in Carolina, Birmingham, Las Vegas, San Antonio, with possibilities of El Paso, Jacksonville and Tallahassee.

[Timmer]

Originally Posted by bedir than average

Cities that are likely to have a team in 25 years inside the USA are the Triad in Carolina, Birmingham, Las Vegas, San Antonio, with possibilities of El Paso, Jacksonville and Tallahassee.

Most of these are too small and will still be too small in 25 years.

[Timmer]

[quote=DR3AMR;38627]Will Detroit and Pittsburgh still have teams?

Yes, I think they will. Detroit especially. I'm less certain about Pittsburgh, but if I had to make a prediction, I'd say the Pirates will still be in Pittsburgh.

Which cities are the most likely expansion candidates - San Antonio, Orlando, Jacksonville, Las Vegas, Memphis, New Orleans, Mexico City?

Not Mexico City. Mexico is almost always a weak economy. That is one reason that so many millions of them are pouring into our country.

I think MLB is very wary of Vegas. I just don't think they want to be associated with the Mecca of gambling. Memphis and Jacksonville strike me as a bit on the small side.

Carolina, maybe. The Carolina Cougars? San Antonio and Orlando are possibilities, but Orlando is too close to Tampa, which is a weak franchise and might well assert terriitorial rights. The two Texas teams might alos try to stop San Antonio for TV reasons.

I'll throw a couple of wild cards in here: Brooklyn (new York is still the 800-pound gorilla in terms of metro population, and that is not going to change) and Montreal. (Maybe San Juan?)

How will MLB deal with the expected continuation of the seperation between the have and have nots?

Not in the way it should. It should abolish revenue-sharing as we know it but turn 1/3 of all gate money to the visiting club and 1/2 of local TV/radio revenues over to the Central Fund to be distirbuted equally. it should also require that the teams put much more money into player development, scouting, and teh big-league payroll. The highest payrolls may be unfairly high, but it is almost throwing gams to keep your payroll as low as some teams have had it in the past several years. They shouldn't allow more than a 200-250 percent disparity.

How much of an effect will the new NY stadiums have on disparity?

Probably not as much as people think. Many people are upset by the new "Yankee Stadium."

Is a third NY team viable?

Yes, absolutely. 1/3 of the NY market is bigger than 100 percent of all but a couple of markets in MLB. The TV and radio infrastructure exists. And this would really help reduce the disparity. And they'd draw at the gate, establishing a strong rivalry with the other NY teams.

The Washington Post reported that before the Expos moved to DC, MLB was talkign with the New Jersey Sports and Exposition Authority about putting them there. And the New York Post reported that when KeySpan Park was being built, the city of New York "heard from a team in a league with a longer schedule" about playing there.

How will the Florida teams deal with their situations?

If they don't get new ballparks they will be in trouble. Hopefully, they won't hve to move, but it's always within the realm of possibility. Don't look for anything to happen with the D-Rays, at least, for a while, as the team has 20 years left on an ironclad lease.

How will a Castro-less Cuba affect the MLB talent pool?

Depends on wht kind of government is formed in his wake. If it maintains the ban, no effect. If it opens up the supply of talent, then it could have a significant effect in upgrading the talent level in MLB. If it's the right kind of government, Havana could even be a candidate for a AAA team and possibly for a major-league team.

His immediate successor is likely to be his brother Raul, who won't change things much. (Fidel's a more competent administrator, though, from what I hear.)

Will there be an international draft?

Maybe. Or maybe they abolish the draft and bring back the bonus rule, as Whitey Herzog suggsted in You're Missing a Great Game.

[bedir than average]

Timmer, how many new teams do you think will be added in almost 2 years?

Also, you do realize that Detroit's population is decreasing?

http://www.semcog.org/Products/pdfs/AgeForecast.pdf

[bedir than average]

http://www.demographia.com/db-msaproj2030.pdf

I'm going to use the late average annual rate

Detriot - 4.3M down .1
Pittsburgh - 2.1 down .2

selected markets without teams at this time
Portland - 3.2M up 1.2
Sacremento - 2.8M up .7
Orlando - 4.1M up 2.1
San Antonio - 3.4M up 1.3
Vegas - 4.2M up 2.3
Charlotte - 3.6M up 2.1
Austin - 3.4M up 1.5

[dlb]

I live in Triad NC. We have a lot of major economic infrastructure problems to fix before we can think about being able to support an MLB entry. Basically, we're in a transition period in which the area's three traditional industries - textiles, furniture and tobacco - are dwindling away. We hope to replace these with industries that have a future potential (biomed, various types of tech & etc), but have had limited success so far.

On the plus side, this is one of the best places in the US to live. The climate is mild; the mountains are 2 hours to the west; the beach is 4 hours to the east; roads are excellent; the water supply is good; and there is plenty of farmland to turn into neighborhoods. Until a new industry gets established though, we have nothing but potential.

[nanwynnfan]

If we're talking 2030, my own projections would be based on three dynamics: population spread dynamics; preservation and rehabilitation of major inner cities; and fan concentration.

I could see expansion to 36 teams, 18 in each league, maintaining three divisions, West, Central and East in each league.

In the AL:

West: Seattle, Los Angeles, Oakland, Sacramento, Mexico, Texas

Central: Cleveland, Detroit, Minnesota, Chicago, Kansas City-Oklahoma, Gulf Coast [Baton Rouge, inland from erosion surge problems];

East: Boston, New York, Toronto, Baltimore, Tampa Bay [regional], Havana

By 2030, northern FL should be able to support a team, either in the Jacksonville area or toward the Gulf, like Pensacola. I see a regional Gulf Coast team rather than a specific city, more like an SMSA approach.

In the NL:

West: Arizona, Colorado, San Diego, Los Angeles, San Francisco, Las Vegas

Central: Chicago, Milwaukee, St. Louis, Houston, Cincinatti, Pittsburgh
[a weak franchise might give way to a Tennessee-based franchise, like Memphis, or be merged into an SMSA regional drwaw];

East: Philadelphia, New York, Atlanta, [Washington-Carolinas regional]; Florida, Caribbean [logistics might be a problem here; but Central America, Dominican Republic, etc. could be supported by a major fan base; and the geography is no great challenge] ......... where to locate a stadium would be crucial.

Since MLB is very big on records preservation, I'd see a 162 game schedule maintained, as follows:

-Each team plays 11 games against each team in its own division and leagues: 5 other teams * 12 = 60;

-Each team plays 8 games against out of division teams in league: 12*8 = 96;

-Each team plays remaining 6 games, 3 home, 3 away vs. inter-league rival;

Wild card and post season play remain unchanged, except that I'd recommend the WS remain at best of 7, while all other playoffs are limited to best of 5.

I won't be around to see it, but I'd love to see the rise of a trans-Pacific League, with teams from the Phillipeans, Pacific Islands, Japan, China, et al having their own schedules, with a gala All-Star weekend featuring MLB AL Stars, then NL stars facing the Pacific Stars.

[bigheadache]

I don't see expansion happening in the next 23 years (before 2030). The reality is there are several teams that cannot compete. Part of it may be bad management, but financial problems for small teams is a real problem.

I also do not see teams moving. Possible, but not likely. The possible cities out there are not much difference in size than Cincy, Pittsburgh or Milwaukee and these cities have built very nice and expensive stadiums for their teams. Why would a team risk a move to a similar sized city without a built in following?

[lorentrook]

Sorry to get off of BB , but the south will not have enough of water to support that many people. To get back on subject though, the Carolina Cougars sounds good. Maybe the Triad Titans?