4/17-19 Sox vs. Blue Jays

AutomatedTeller · 04-17-2007, 10:46 AM

This series worries me - the Sox, for whatever reason, have not played the Jays well the last couple of years. I know why the Sox and Yankees play each other hard, but I'm not sure why the Sox matchup so poorly against the Blue Jays.

Couple of things from the season as it currently is:
(R/H means road for Sox, Home for Toronto)
Record: Sox 7-4 Tor 7-5
Runs per game: Sox 5.27 Tor 5.58
R/H RPG: Sox 3.17 Tor 4.86
ERA: Sox 2.72 Tor 3.98
RA: Sox 2.73 Tor 4.58
R/H RGP: Sox 3.50 Tor 4.00
E Sox 8 Tor 11
DP Sox 7 Tor 9
DER Sox .730 Tor .714

Sox lead the league in ERA and RA and are 2nd in DER (defensive efficiency) - all numbers are from baseball-reference.com.

Obviously, H/R splits are basically meaningless this time of year, as is most any stat. A week ago, Papi was hitting .200 and was in a huge slump - now he's 5th in the league in OPS, 4th in SLG.

Zen653 · 04-17-2007, 11:48 AM

The Blue Jays are without Troy Glaus, Reed Johnson and BJ Ryan. We also don't have to worry about our arch nemesis, Frank Catalanotto, who has moved on to another team. We also have much better starting pitching this year. I think we'll be fine in this series. I also expect Ramirez to finally hit a homerun. He seems to hit extremely well at the Rogers Centre.

Zen653 · 04-17-2007, 07:15 PM

4/17 lineups:

Boston Red Sox

SS Julio Lugo
CF Coco Crisp
DH David Ortiz
LF Manny Ramirez
1B Kevin Youkilis
3B Mike Lowell
C Jason Varitek
RF Wily Mo Pena
2B Dustin Pedroia

SP Daisuke Matsuzaka

Toronto Blue Jays

RF Alex Rios
LF Adam Lind
CF Vernon Wells
DH Frank Thomas
1B Lyle Overbay
2B Aaron Hill
C Gregg Zaun
SS Royce Clayton
3B Jason Smith

SP Gustavo Chacin

Zen653 · 04-17-2007, 08:01 PM

Wily Mo Pena with a colossal homerun blast into the restaraunt in CF. That's the first hit of the season for him. 1-0 Red Sox.

Zen653 · 04-17-2007, 08:23 PM

In the 4th inning, Matsuzaka is being victimized by some questionable umpiring calls and poor infield defense. He should have had Vernon Wells on a strikeout but the umpire called it a ball. Then Wells reached on an infield hit, with a bang-bang play at first. Matsuzaka walked the next batter on four pitches in frustration. Then the next guy grounded into what should have been an inning-ending double play but Lugo bobbled it. Then the umpire granted a very late timeout, after Matsuzaka was already in motion. Now he just uncorked a wild pitch, loading the bases. He seems really rattled.

Zen653 · 04-17-2007, 08:25 PM

Matsuzaka just walked in a run. That's his third walk of the inning. I thought this guy had nerves of steel.

Zen653 · 04-17-2007, 08:31 PM

We escape further damage after a strikeout and a deep fly to the warning track in center. 2-1 Toronto after 4. I suppose it could have been a lot worse given the way Dice-K struggled that inning.

Zen653 · 04-17-2007, 09:24 PM

Okajima strikes out the side in the 7th.

Can we please score some runs in the 8th? I hope we're not going back to our 2005 pattern of score 8, score 1, score 12, score 10, score 0, score 7, score 1, etc. I'd like to see our runs distributed more evenly between games.

Drew pinch-hitting for Pedroia to begin the 8th...and he walks!

Zen653 · 04-17-2007, 09:35 PM

Lugo was ahead 3-0, then took two stikes to make it 3-2. Drew took off on the 3-2 pitch and Lugo lined into a double play. Not good.

Coco with a hit up the middle but Ortiz grounds out to the pitcher. Just not our night.

Zen653 · 04-17-2007, 09:44 PM

Red Sox pitchers have retired 13 batters in a row and have surrendered just 3 hits over 8 innings. The Red Sox, meanwhile, have 7 hits, yet trail 2-1.

Matsuzaka cannot be happy. He gives up only 3 runs against the Mariners, and just 2 runs against the Jays (with 10 K's), yet will probably pick up his second loss in three starts.

It's up to Manny now. He's 3-8 with 2 homeruns in his career against Jason Frasor. There's no better time than the present for Ramirez to sock his first dinger of the year. We're down to our final three outs.

Zen653 · 04-17-2007, 09:52 PM

Ramirez, Youkilis and Lowell go down in order in the 9th. Red Sox lose.

I guess you're right, AT. We just have to tip our caps and call the Blue Jays our daddies.

My MVP of the Game (with 1 HR and 2 hits):

My LVP of the Game (allowed an inning-ending double play to turn into 2 runs):

Gustavo Chacin improves to 6-0 in his career against the Red Sox.

AutomatedTeller · 04-17-2007, 10:20 PM

Matsuzaka is just incredibly impressive.

I give him a pass for the 4th - yeah, he got rattled, but sometimes crap happens. He came back strong.

I wish I knew whether to be worried about the O. I do know that the Sox still don't seem to have solved the problems with scoring against lefties, and that might be very painful against the Yankees, who could conceivably start 2/3 of their games against the Sox with lefties.

Zen653 · 04-17-2007, 10:36 PM

Why do the Red Sox score tons of runs for Josh Beckett and almost nothing for Daisuke Matsuzaka and Tim Wakefield? It just seems weird how these patterns seem to fall into place over long stretches of time. The Beckett/Wakefield split has gone on for well over a year.

ofhdhdy · 04-18-2007, 01:04 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Zen653

Why do the Red Sox score tons of runs for Josh Beckett and almost nothing for Daisuke Matsuzaka and Tim Wakefield? It just seems weird how these patterns seem to fall into place over long stretches of time. The Beckett/Wakefield split has gone on for well over a year.

Its like that for the Jays as well. They get tons of runs for Chacin (well not tonight) as you can see from his fairly good career record but high ERA but when Halladay pitches it seems he is always winning 2-1, 3-2 games. Good thing Halladay is such a great pitcher!

Zen653 · 04-18-2007, 01:17 AM

I like your team a lot, ofhdhy. Toronto is very underrated. If everyone were healthy, I think a good argument could be made for the Blue Jays being the best team in the division. As great as the Yankees offense is, they don't have starting pitching. That'll hurt them against the better teams in baseball. And as good as the Red Sox starting pitching is, we don't have a consistent offense. It seems like we either score 7+ or get nearly nothing at all. Meanwhile, the only glaring hole on the Blue Jays might be starting pitching depth. I don't know if you can really rely on your #4 and 5 starters.

Anyway, you should be happy that you won't face Josh Beckett in this series. Not because he's unhittable but because of all the run support he receives. It's almost as if the Red Sox collectively say to themselves, "Ok, Josh is on the mound tonight, we'll score a couple of touchdowns!" I wish they'd do that for Matsuzaka and Wakefield. Sure, Beckett has pitched very well so far but a big part of his success this year has been the big early leads. When you're up 6-0 after 1 inning, you can relax and just throw strikes. The other team is also disheartened and perhaps not as focused on winning that day.

04-17-2007, 10:46 AM	#1 (permalink)
AutomatedTeller Moderator Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 544	4/17-19 Sox vs. Blue Jays This series worries me - the Sox, for whatever reason, have not played the Jays well the last couple of years. I know why the Sox and Yankees play each other hard, but I'm not sure why the Sox matchup so poorly against the Blue Jays. Couple of things from the season as it currently is: (R/H means road for Sox, Home for Toronto) Record: Sox 7-4 Tor 7-5 Runs per game: Sox 5.27 Tor 5.58 R/H RPG: Sox 3.17 Tor 4.86 ERA: Sox 2.72 Tor 3.98 RA: Sox 2.73 Tor 4.58 R/H RGP: Sox 3.50 Tor 4.00 E Sox 8 Tor 11 DP Sox 7 Tor 9 DER Sox .730 Tor .714 Sox lead the league in ERA and RA and are 2nd in DER (defensive efficiency) - all numbers are from baseball-reference.com. Obviously, H/R splits are basically meaningless this time of year, as is most any stat. A week ago, Papi was hitting .200 and was in a huge slump - now he's 5th in the league in OPS, 4th in SLG.

04-17-2007, 09:35 PM	#9 (permalink)
Zen653 Hall of Famer Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 6,636	Lugo was ahead 3-0, then took two stikes to make it 3-2. Drew took off on the 3-2 pitch and Lugo lined into a double play. Not good. Coco with a hit up the middle but Ortiz grounds out to the pitcher. Just not our night. Last edited by Zen653; 04-17-2007 at 09:40 PM.

04-17-2007, 11:48 AM	#2 (permalink)
Zen653 Hall of Famer Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 6,636	The Blue Jays are without Troy Glaus, Reed Johnson and BJ Ryan. We also don't have to worry about our arch nemesis, Frank Catalanotto, who has moved on to another team. We also have much better starting pitching this year. I think we'll be fine in this series. I also expect Ramirez to finally hit a homerun. He seems to hit extremely well at the Rogers Centre.

04-17-2007, 07:15 PM	#3 (permalink)
Zen653 Hall of Famer Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 6,636	4/17 lineups: Boston Red Sox SS Julio Lugo CF Coco Crisp DH David Ortiz LF Manny Ramirez 1B Kevin Youkilis 3B Mike Lowell C Jason Varitek RF Wily Mo Pena 2B Dustin Pedroia SP Daisuke Matsuzaka Toronto Blue Jays RF Alex Rios LF Adam Lind CF Vernon Wells DH Frank Thomas 1B Lyle Overbay 2B Aaron Hill C Gregg Zaun SS Royce Clayton 3B Jason Smith SP Gustavo Chacin

04-17-2007, 08:01 PM	#4 (permalink)
Zen653 Hall of Famer Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 6,636	Wily Mo Pena with a colossal homerun blast into the restaraunt in CF. That's the first hit of the season for him. 1-0 Red Sox.

04-17-2007, 08:23 PM	#5 (permalink)
Zen653 Hall of Famer Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 6,636	In the 4th inning, Matsuzaka is being victimized by some questionable umpiring calls and poor infield defense. He should have had Vernon Wells on a strikeout but the umpire called it a ball. Then Wells reached on an infield hit, with a bang-bang play at first. Matsuzaka walked the next batter on four pitches in frustration. Then the next guy grounded into what should have been an inning-ending double play but Lugo bobbled it. Then the umpire granted a very late timeout, after Matsuzaka was already in motion. Now he just uncorked a wild pitch, loading the bases. He seems really rattled.

04-17-2007, 08:25 PM	#6 (permalink)
Zen653 Hall of Famer Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 6,636	Matsuzaka just walked in a run. That's his third walk of the inning. I thought this guy had nerves of steel.

04-17-2007, 08:31 PM	#7 (permalink)
Zen653 Hall of Famer Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 6,636	We escape further damage after a strikeout and a deep fly to the warning track in center. 2-1 Toronto after 4. I suppose it could have been a lot worse given the way Dice-K struggled that inning.

04-17-2007, 09:24 PM	#8 (permalink)
Zen653 Hall of Famer Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 6,636	Okajima strikes out the side in the 7th. Can we please score some runs in the 8th? I hope we're not going back to our 2005 pattern of score 8, score 1, score 12, score 10, score 0, score 7, score 1, etc. I'd like to see our runs distributed more evenly between games. Drew pinch-hitting for Pedroia to begin the 8th...and he walks!

04-17-2007, 09:44 PM	#10 (permalink)
Zen653 Hall of Famer Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 6,636	Red Sox pitchers have retired 13 batters in a row and have surrendered just 3 hits over 8 innings. The Red Sox, meanwhile, have 7 hits, yet trail 2-1. Matsuzaka cannot be happy. He gives up only 3 runs against the Mariners, and just 2 runs against the Jays (with 10 K's), yet will probably pick up his second loss in three starts. It's up to Manny now. He's 3-8 with 2 homeruns in his career against Jason Frasor. There's no better time than the present for Ramirez to sock his first dinger of the year. We're down to our final three outs.

04-17-2007, 09:52 PM	#11 (permalink)
Zen653 Hall of Famer Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 6,636	Ramirez, Youkilis and Lowell go down in order in the 9th. Red Sox lose. I guess you're right, AT. We just have to tip our caps and call the Blue Jays our daddies. My MVP of the Game (with 1 HR and 2 hits): My LVP of the Game (allowed an inning-ending double play to turn into 2 runs): Gustavo Chacin improves to 6-0 in his career against the Red Sox.

04-17-2007, 10:20 PM	#12 (permalink)
AutomatedTeller Moderator Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 544	Matsuzaka is just incredibly impressive. I give him a pass for the 4th - yeah, he got rattled, but sometimes crap happens. He came back strong. I wish I knew whether to be worried about the O. I do know that the Sox still don't seem to have solved the problems with scoring against lefties, and that might be very painful against the Yankees, who could conceivably start 2/3 of their games against the Sox with lefties.

04-17-2007, 10:36 PM	#13 (permalink)
Zen653 Hall of Famer Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 6,636	Why do the Red Sox score tons of runs for Josh Beckett and almost nothing for Daisuke Matsuzaka and Tim Wakefield? It just seems weird how these patterns seem to fall into place over long stretches of time. The Beckett/Wakefield split has gone on for well over a year.

04-18-2007, 01:17 AM	#15 (permalink)
Zen653 Hall of Famer Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 6,636	I like your team a lot, ofhdhy. Toronto is very underrated. If everyone were healthy, I think a good argument could be made for the Blue Jays being the best team in the division. As great as the Yankees offense is, they don't have starting pitching. That'll hurt them against the better teams in baseball. And as good as the Red Sox starting pitching is, we don't have a consistent offense. It seems like we either score 7+ or get nearly nothing at all. Meanwhile, the only glaring hole on the Blue Jays might be starting pitching depth. I don't know if you can really rely on your #4 and 5 starters. Anyway, you should be happy that you won't face Josh Beckett in this series. Not because he's unhittable but because of all the run support he receives. It's almost as if the Red Sox collectively say to themselves, "Ok, Josh is on the mound tonight, we'll score a couple of touchdowns!" I wish they'd do that for Matsuzaka and Wakefield. Sure, Beckett has pitched very well so far but a big part of his success this year has been the big early leads. When you're up 6-0 after 1 inning, you can relax and just throw strikes. The other team is also disheartened and perhaps not as focused on winning that day.