Sox O

[AutomatedTeller]

well, should we worry? It's been a week (8 games) and the Sox have been shut out twice already.

They are 7th in the league in RS... but if you take out the 14 run explosion against a seattle team that hadn't played in nearly a week, they would only be ahead of a seattle team that had missed 3 games.

The weather has been a factor, but it has for everyone.

Certainly, the Sox will hit better than .238. Jason Varitek is hitting .217, which is a concern, but he's got a higher BA than either Manny or Ortiz.

I guess I'm not yet worried, but I do hope some of guys start hitting. the guy that concerns me the most is Manny, but that's just because if he is losing it, the Sox are dead - they really can't contend if Manny isn't one of the top hitters in the league.

[Zen653]

Varitek hit .238 for the year in 2006. I think his .217 is about as good as it will get for Varitek. Maybe .250. The days of him hitting near .300 are over.

Ramirez almost always starts out slow, then ends the year with 35+ homers and 100+ RBI. I won't worry about him unless he's still slumping in mid-May. We seem to have this discussion about him every April.

Ortiz will continue to sock homeruns at a Ruthian rate once the weather heats up. I'd be surprised by anything less than 45 HR from him.

Drew seems to be just as advertised. He's hitting at a decent clip and making things happen on the basepaths. Ditto Julio Lugo and Kevin Youkilis.

Lowell will probably be good enough to stay in the regular lineup but not good enough to really scare anyone.

Crisp and Pedroia worry me at the bottom of the order. They both appear to be automatic outs. Pedroia swings for the fences and Crisp just hasn't been able to put it together in Boston. The good news is that Wily Mo Pena could replace Coco in CF, if we get to a point where Crisp no longer deserves regular playing time. And we'll also probably have a lot of trade options for second base if we decide to upgrade the offense at that position. We could probably re-acquire Mark Loretta on the cheap.

[AutomatedTeller]

It would be a big worry if Lowell starts off slow, since he's a notorious 1st half player.

I fear you may be right about Tek, which is unfortunate. No longer can I say "well, he's pretty comparable to Posada, if not quite as good"

Pedroia I'm open minded about.
Crisp - man, he better figure it out.

If Crisp, pedroia and Tek all suck, the Sox are in big ass trouble.

[Zen653]

If Crisp, pedroia and Tek all suck, the Sox are in big ass trouble.

I'm more concerned about Varitek than Crisp or Pedroia. If Crisp falters, we have four potential in-house replacement candidates in Pena, Hinske (with Drew shifting to CF), Ellsbury and Murphy. We also have Hunter on the trade market. If Pedroia falters, there are a bunch of decent second basemen who we could acquire for marginal prospects. It wouldn't take a lot to re-acquire someone like Mark Loretta or Tony Graffanino, or someone else of that ilk. We could also give Alex Cora a shot as a starting second baseman.

The problem with Varitek is that his backup is even worse. Doug Mirabelli actually has some pop in his bat. He hits a decent number of homeruns for a part-timer. But the batting average keeps coming down. He looks cooked. His only major league skill is catching the knuckleball. Mirabelli will likely be out of baseball after 2007 unless he miraculously starts hitting at least .250. I know a lot of people seem high on George Kottaras right now, I just think it would be unfair to rely on him this year.

With four top catchers hitting the market this off-season (Posada, LoDuca, Kendall and I-Rod), we need to think long and hard about signing one of them and possibly demoting the captain to backup status. We only have Varitek for one more year (2008) and we need to take an impersonal approach to assessing our lineup. If any of those guys are willing to sign a short-term contract (two years or less), I think we need to do it and deal with the consequences afterwards. Varitek could still be the captain as a backup. He could still help out with all the pitchers. He just wouldn't play every day. He'd become Schilling's personal catcher, or Beckett's, or whoever, and let the new guy handle the other four. He seems like a stand-up guy, I think he'd understand the move if his 2007 is just like his 2006. Maybe he'd even agree to become our long-term No. 2 catcher if he decides he wants to play beyond his current contract.

[AutomatedTeller]

I wonder if Wakefield will retire if Mirabelli goes. I agree - Mirabelli is cooked. Not that he was ever all that and a bag of chips or anything.

If Tek is just as good as he was last year, he'd be ok - his OPS was about middle of the road - lowend for regulars, but all teams should do as well.

[Zen653]

I wonder if Wakefield will retire if Mirabelli goes.

I think Varitek's status will play into this decision. If Varitek can regain his batting stroke, raise his average to the .270 range, and be a top 15 catcher, then we have the luxury of carrying Mirabelli as our backup, even if he bats under .100 for the year. The offensive contributions of a backup catcher are largely irrelevant. You want a good glove man, and that's an area where Mirabelli still excels. Keeping Mirabelli around is a bigger problem when your regular catcher is almost equally as bad. So if the captain doesn't turn it around, I think we have no choice but to dump Mirabelli for someone with better pop in his bat. Varitek then becomes the backup, or a platoon partner at best. If, however, Varitek can still play, then we can hold onto Mirabelli indefinitely because we're no longer an offensive hole at catcher.

As for Tim Wakefield, I think he'll continue to pitch for as long as the Red Sox keep him in the starting rotation. Despite the perception of Wakefield as a great teammate, I remember him complaining quite a bit about his demotion to the bullpen a few years ago. He's made it very clear that he wants to be a starting pitcher. Once the Red Sox decide there's no longer room for him in the rotation - something which could happen as early as this year - I think his Red Sox career will be over. While I believe that the Red Sox will continue to exercise that $4 million option as long as he remains healthy and keeps his ERA under 5, I don't think they want to keep him in the rotation forever. Personally, I think Wakefield would make an excellent relief pitcher. Imagine facing a knuckleballer for 2-3 innings after going up against Beckett for the first 6. But there's no glory in being a middle reliever and Wakefield could probably start for another team if the Red Sox decide to go in another direction. Maybe he'd even take Mirabelli with him.

For example, let's say that the Red Sox re-sign Curt Schilling for 2008 and decide to put both Jon Lester and Clay Bucholz in the rotation. Where does that leave Wakefield? The rotation would be Schilling, Beckett, Matsuzaka, Lester, Bucholz. Kottaras would probably be ready as the No. 2 catcher, making Mirabelli an unwanted free agent. The team could still exercise its $4 million option on Wakefield but he'd probably tell them he doesn't want to be a middle reliever. In deference to Wakefield's 13 years in Boston (matching Clemens' tenure with the team), the Red Sox would decline their option, pay him the marginal buy-out fee and allow him to negotiate with any other team. Assuming that he's still pretty good (10-15 wins, 4ish ERA), I bet that a lot of teams would be interested in him, especially in the National League where he'd even have the potential of making his first All-Star team. He could make a lot more than the $4 million the Red Sox are paying him now. He'd probably sign a 2 year/$12 million deal with a team like the Mets. Yes, he'd no longer be in Boston which is where he's established his year-round home, but for a couple years and a final contract, I think he'd play somewhere else. If it's the Mets, maybe they'd even add Mirabelli as their No. 2 catcher.

My hope is that Wakefield will remain in Boston - with or without Mirabelli - for several more effective years. I'm not sold on keeping him in the rotation and I really do believe that he could reinvent himself as one of the best middle relievers in the game. He would have such a profound impact on the entire pitching staff by coming out of the bullpen. On some days, he could pitch the final 3-4 innings of a game. On other days, he'd make the opposing batters look silly because of the contrast from Beckett to Wakefield to Papelbon. As a knuckleballing relief pitcher, he could probably continue playing until he's 50, and there would always be the option of using him as a spot starter. $4 million might seem like a lot for a non-closer bullpen guy but that's what the Red Sox are paying to Joel Pineiro who has nowhere near the same kind of history, track record or versatility as Tim Wakefield.

If the Red Sox decide to make Kottaras the new personal catcher for Wakefield, I hope that they give him plenty of practice catching knuckleballs. Don't even wait for spring training. Send Kottaras and Zink (or some other knuckleballer) to the same Dominican League team and have him catch Zink during the winter, so that when spring training starts, he's ready to handle Wakefield.

[AutomatedTeller]

I don't see the Sox moving Wake to the pen any time soon.

Last year, Wakefield had the 2nd best ERA of any pitcher in the rotation. That's about the way that it always ends up. It's very difficult for me to believe that the Sox, always in contention, will move a proven starter out of the rotation to a middle relief role when there is no proof that they have as good a replacement.

I don;t see Wakefield is going to lose his spot in the rotation until and unless the Sox have 5 rotation starters who are better... and I don't know that they currently have 2 who are better. Matsuzake and Beckett certainly *look* better - but then, Beckett had an ERA of 1.29 until late April last year.

[Zen653]

I don;t see Wakefield is going to lose his spot in the rotation until and unless the Sox have 5 rotation starters who are better... and I don't know that they currently have 2 who are better.

Wakefield was sent to the bullpen in a year when Mark Portugal was our fourth starter. I don't think it's about performance as much as versatility. We know that Wakefield can start or relieve. He has experience with both roles. The same does not apply to Beckett or Matsuzaka who are both signed to long-term contracts at bigger dollars. Even if Wakefield pitches better than both of them, they're still going to be ahead of him on the depth chart.

Epstein seems to like the younger pitchers in the organization. It won't be long before Jon Lester and Clay Bucholz are both starting in the major leagues. Those two plus Schilling, Beckett and Matsuzaka will leave Wakefield out of the mix even if he's still a 10-15 game winner with a 4.30 ERA. It's the curse of flexibility. We could even see Wakefield transitioned out of the rotation this year if we land Clemens and bring up Lester. Who else would those two replace - no way would Schilling, Beckett or Matsuzaka get sent to the bullpen.

[AutomatedTeller]

Sure, Wake went to the pen once - he went to be the closer, it was 8 years and $27M ago. He might be willing to do that, he might not. In 1995 and 1996, he made a start on 2 days rest, and he's not going to do that anytime soon, either.

Is it possible that Wake can get moved to the pen? I suppose. I don't know that I see Lester moving him - Wakefield almost always went 6, and often went 7 - lester went more than 6 twice. And I certainly don't see the Sox moving wakefield to the pen to give a guy who is coming back from cancer a shot - not unless something radical happens to Wakes effectiveness.

Much more likely is that Lester gets to be a long reliever this year.

Back to the O: now the sox are tied for 5th in runs scored. Cleveland has scored slightly more runs per game, but has played 2 fewer games - on the other hand, both baltimore and texas have played 1 or 2 games more.

Papi is back to near normal. Youkilis is almost exactly where he was last year. Lugo is hitting .315 with walks but no real power. Drew is excellent, of course.

A couple of little things: Dustin is leading the team in walks, Crisp has the 2nd most K's on the team.

Mike Lowell has 4 errors already.

Sox, btw, are currently leading the league in ERA, which they haven't done for a season since the Pedro era.

[Zen653]

This offense needs some serious help. On the 7 game road trip, the Red Sox were 7 for 7 in quality starts. Every starter went at least 6 innings, giving up 3 or fewer runs. Yet the team went 3-4 during that stretch, in large part because the offense scored: 4, 2, 0, 1, 10, 4 and 1 runs, respectively. Take out the 10 run outlier and that's an average of 2 runs per game.

Julio Lugo, Coco Crisp and J.D Drew continue to contribute almost nothing offensively. Mike Lowell is starting to go into his second half slide. It may be time to re-consider a variation of the Todd Helton trade. Do you think the Rockies would bite on the following offer?:

Mike Lowell (3 months, $4.5 million), Julio Lugo (3.5 years, $32 million), Joel Pineiro (3 months, $2 million), Craig Hansen (2.5 years, $2.5 million), Dave Pauley (minimum wager), Travis Hughes (minimum wager), Abe Alvarez (minimum wager) and $4 million (to make 2007 salaries even on both sides) for Todd Helton (4.5 years, $77 million) and Kaz Matsui (3 months, $0.8 million)?

Here's why the Rockies would make the deal - they'd save $41 million over 4 years, or an average of $10 million per year. They'd pick up three potential starting pitchers in Joel Pineiro, Abe Alvarez and Dave Pauley (who is from Colorado.) They'd add a pair of young fireballing relief pitchers in Craig Hansen and Travis Hughes. They'd replace at least some of Helton's offense with Gold Glover Mike Lowell (who would come off the books at the end of the year.) Lugo would take over for Matsui at second base, or could take over for a mediocre rookie at shortstop.

Here's why the Red Sox would make the deal - Todd Helton would vastly improve the offense, and his statistics could actually go up even more playing half his games at Fenway Park. Kaz Matsui would give the Red Sox even more of a Japanese flavor, and more importantly, he'd provide an offensive upgrade at shortstop. He'd come off the books at the end of the year, effectively allowing the Red Sox to get out from under Lugo's contract. The team could then target Orlando Cabrera or Alex Rodriguez during the off-season. Or they could continue with Kaz Matsui if he plays well. While the team would be giving up some of its starting pitching depth, the Red Sox would still have Kason Gabbard, Devern Hansack and Clay Buccholz as capable fill-ins, along with Manny Delcarmen and Egar Martinez out of the bullpen.

Post-trade roster:

1. 2B Dustin Pedroia
2. 3B Kevin Youkilis
3. DH David Ortiz
4. LF Manny Ramirez
5. 1B Todd Helton (.332 AVG, 6 HR, 29 RBI, .447 OBA)
6. RF J.D Drew
7. C Jason Varitek
8. SS Kaz Matsui (.324 AVG, 1 HR, 14 RBI, .355 OBA)
9. CF Coco Crisp

10. C Doug Mirabelli
11. 1B/3B/OF Eric Hinske
12. 2B/SS Alex Cora
13. OF Wily Mo Pena

14. SP Curt Schilling
15. SP Josh Beckett
16. SP Daisuke Matsuzaka
17. SP Tim Wakefield
18. SP Jon Lester

19. RP Jon Papelbon
20. RP Hideki Okajima
21. RP Mike Timlin
22. RP Brendan Donnelly
23. RP Javier Lopez
24. RP Julian Tavarez
25. RP Kyle Snyder

[Zen653]

By the way, for those concerned about Helton's home/away splits, he has an identical OBA at home and on the road this year, and he's actually hitting for a higher average in away games (.346 vs. .305).

[AutomatedTeller]

It might be reasonable - I just don't see anything like that happening, though.

How can you completely reconfigure your IF in the middle of the season? While you are 9.5 games up!

Drew, btw, is hitting .324 the last 2 weeks.

Coco isn't doing a lot offensively, but he's playing good D. Lugo is on pace to drive in our 90 runs, or was the last I looked. He's not really a good leadoff hitter, but he's not quite as bad as we think.

the Sox have been shut down... on the road, vs. 2 teams with team ERA;s of 3.16 and 3.69.

I do think the Sox need more offense - I think Lugo will turn it around. I don't know if Crisp will or not.

[captainkairos]

I really want to see Coco get it turned around, but it doesn't seem like that is going to happen. I like what he adds to the team defensively, but he is not a clutch RBI man like Damon was, and that is sorely missed.
There were mock trades in our local paper suggesting that the Sox may try to acquire a center fielder after the All Star Break, and Jim Edmunds name came up. eh?
What about a trade with Texas involving Kenny Lofton, Mark Textiera, or Eric Gagne? All three could help the Sox, and if we are going to mortgage our future, why not try and pry Textiera away from Texas? Instant O...plus Lofton can help with his playoff experience. I don't know, but I feel like a move needs to be made. The Sox have been winning games DESPITE the offensive woes of Crisp, Lugo, and Drew. Drew seems to be turning it around, but Crisp and Lugo just don't get on base enough. Now we are starting to see what can happens to a team with role players not contributing enough.
I am not an expert, nor do I pretend to be one. But Texas is floundering and they seem to have talent that can help the sox.

[AutomatedTeller]

Coco for Lofton might be interesting. If we assume that Ellsbury is the future and Coco is bad....

[EnderSwarm]

Do we really need to 'assume' Coco is bad at this point? He's a defense-first player. Regardless of whatever sort of pop his bat had before the thumb injury, he doesn't seem to have it now. Coco's lucky that Wily Mo can't catch routine flyballs. IMO, it's the only thing that is keeping Coco with a starter's job right now. We're going to end up spending more than Damon's contract would've cost trying to replace Damon, and that sucks.

Lugo is a bust in every sense of the word. Another colossal waste of money, and barring some insane turnaround, most likely another eaten SS contract somewhere down the line. He makes Offerman look like the greatest thing since sliced bread.

Drew is starting to come around, but you saw what happens to guys in this lineup that come around. Yep, DAY OFF.