Epstein Trade Analysis

danjulien · 12-24-2006, 10:06 AM

I've released on Baseball Views from the North another trade analysis using sabrmetric statistics. This time it’s analyzing Theo Epstein’s moves from his first trade to the moment he quit and left the Red Sox offices in a gorilla suit. The most interesting part is his track record in "baseball deals", where he really hasn't fared too well when exchanging similar players...He actully performed worse than the other three GMs I've analyzed up to this point which is odd because of how much recognition he had as a great trader...

bulldoggie · 12-24-2006, 06:46 PM

Great! A forum with freedom of spamming!

AutomatedTeller · 12-26-2006, 10:07 AM

not quite - I've asked him to edit his post so it's more than just a link to his blog. We are trying to be blog friendly here.

I hope he does - it's an interesting topic, in and of itself. What does everyone else think about Theo's trade record? I kind of think it's spotty.

WhosyourPapi???? · 12-27-2006, 11:47 AM

I think he has a pretty good record. Sure he made a few bad trades(Freddy Sanchez) but overall i think he has been a great GM.

Zen653 · 01-08-2007, 03:17 PM

I'm trying to think of a bunch of trades Epstein made that I liked. I don't think I can come up with many. Sanchez for Suppan was a disaster. Bard and Meredith for Mirabelli didn't work out too well. Garciaparra for Cabrera and Mientciwicz was a downgrade talent-wise, although we obviously won the World Series that year (the Red Sox could have had Magglio Ordonez for him at one time.) Hillenbrand for Kim was a wash. I can't even remember who we eventually got from Colorado in return for Kim. Riske for Lopez was stupid. As was Stern for three mediocre weeks of the other Javy Lopez. Renteria and money for Crisp (via Andy Marte) was a wash. Arroyo for Wily Mo Pena likely cost us the playoffs last year, so I can't count that as a good deal, especially when it appears that Pena will never even get a chance to regularly play in Boston.

I can only think of three trades in the plus column. The original Dave Roberts trade was a steal. The Red Sox only gave up Henri Stanley for him. Last year's David Wells/George Kottaras swap made a lot of sense. For just one month of David Wells, the Red Sox potentially acquired their next starting catcher (or at least someone who projects to be a cheap backup for several years.) And, of course, how could anyone complain about the robbery of Curt Schilling from the Arizona Diamondbacks.

AutomatedTeller · 01-11-2007, 08:16 PM

well, Nomar out may have been a drop in talent, but that doesn't mean it was a bad trade.

I kind of liked the Pena/Arroyo deal, but even though it looks bad, it's quite a stretch to say it cost the Sox the playoffs, considering Pena was useful in limited time and the Sox finished 9 games out. To think it did, you pretty much have to think that Arroyo would have done with the Sox what he did with the Reds, and it's hard for me to see how that is possible.

Graffanino for Chip Ambres was a good deal at a low level of impact, the Roberts for Pauley, Vazquez and Payton was ok, and getting something for a disgruntled payton was pretty good. Dumatrait for Williamson certainly wasn't a bad deal.

The Kim deals are interesting: the Sox got Charles Johnson and a guy named Chris Narveson. The Rockies had gotten Narveson under his pseudonym, Player to be named later I the previous august in the Walker deal - and the Cards claimed him off waivers from the Sox the next august.

Most of Theo's best moves have been in low risk free agents - Arroyo, Mueller, Millar, Foulke, Bellhorn, Ortiz.

Mirabelli for Loretta was quite a good deal - and the renteria for crisp deal also included josh bard, who was certainly good.

ingagi · 01-19-2007, 07:47 PM

Amazing the young talent the Sox have traded off here-Freddy Sanchez, Ramirez to Fla, Riske etc. Oh well. You do have to give up something to get something, though the Arroyo trade was strange. Willy Mo has a bat, sure--but seems you can find more like him than like Arroyo, you know? Maybe Theo and Weird Henry need break that chimpsuit back outta mothballs and see if it can manage to work it's magic on'em again. Or not, your choice.

AutomatedTeller · 01-21-2007, 10:45 PM

Sanchez was a bad move... but on the other hand, it's not like he was any sort of hot prospect - the Pirates didn't give him a full time job for quite some time, until he basically forced them to by hitting and not stopping hitting.

He will never win another batting title, though.

rubberball · 01-24-2007, 01:23 PM

didnt we get Mike Gonzalez from pitsburg in the suppan/sanchez trade but had to send him back because of the whole Brandon Lyons arm thing?

12-24-2006, 10:06 AM	#1 (permalink)
danjulien Member Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 20	Epstein Trade Analysis I've released on Baseball Views from the North another trade analysis using sabrmetric statistics. This time it’s analyzing Theo Epstein’s moves from his first trade to the moment he quit and left the Red Sox offices in a gorilla suit. The most interesting part is his track record in "baseball deals", where he really hasn't fared too well when exchanging similar players...He actully performed worse than the other three GMs I've analyzed up to this point which is odd because of how much recognition he had as a great trader... __________________ baseball views from the North Last edited by danjulien; 12-26-2006 at 11:49 AM.

12-24-2006, 06:46 PM	#2 (permalink)
bulldoggie Rookie Member Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 10	Great! A forum with freedom of spamming!

12-26-2006, 10:07 AM	#3 (permalink)
AutomatedTeller Moderator Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 545	not quite - I've asked him to edit his post so it's more than just a link to his blog. We are trying to be blog friendly here. I hope he does - it's an interesting topic, in and of itself. What does everyone else think about Theo's trade record? I kind of think it's spotty.

12-27-2006, 11:47 AM	#4 (permalink)
WhosyourPapi???? Member Join Date: Nov 2006 Location: Calgary Posts: 36	I think he has a pretty good record. Sure he made a few bad trades(Freddy Sanchez) but overall i think he has been a great GM.

01-08-2007, 03:17 PM	#5 (permalink)
Zen653 Hall of Famer Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 6,901	I'm trying to think of a bunch of trades Epstein made that I liked. I don't think I can come up with many. Sanchez for Suppan was a disaster. Bard and Meredith for Mirabelli didn't work out too well. Garciaparra for Cabrera and Mientciwicz was a downgrade talent-wise, although we obviously won the World Series that year (the Red Sox could have had Magglio Ordonez for him at one time.) Hillenbrand for Kim was a wash. I can't even remember who we eventually got from Colorado in return for Kim. Riske for Lopez was stupid. As was Stern for three mediocre weeks of the other Javy Lopez. Renteria and money for Crisp (via Andy Marte) was a wash. Arroyo for Wily Mo Pena likely cost us the playoffs last year, so I can't count that as a good deal, especially when it appears that Pena will never even get a chance to regularly play in Boston. I can only think of three trades in the plus column. The original Dave Roberts trade was a steal. The Red Sox only gave up Henri Stanley for him. Last year's David Wells/George Kottaras swap made a lot of sense. For just one month of David Wells, the Red Sox potentially acquired their next starting catcher (or at least someone who projects to be a cheap backup for several years.) And, of course, how could anyone complain about the robbery of Curt Schilling from the Arizona Diamondbacks.

01-11-2007, 08:16 PM	#6 (permalink)
AutomatedTeller Moderator Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 545	well, Nomar out may have been a drop in talent, but that doesn't mean it was a bad trade. I kind of liked the Pena/Arroyo deal, but even though it looks bad, it's quite a stretch to say it cost the Sox the playoffs, considering Pena was useful in limited time and the Sox finished 9 games out. To think it did, you pretty much have to think that Arroyo would have done with the Sox what he did with the Reds, and it's hard for me to see how that is possible. Graffanino for Chip Ambres was a good deal at a low level of impact, the Roberts for Pauley, Vazquez and Payton was ok, and getting something for a disgruntled payton was pretty good. Dumatrait for Williamson certainly wasn't a bad deal. The Kim deals are interesting: the Sox got Charles Johnson and a guy named Chris Narveson. The Rockies had gotten Narveson under his pseudonym, Player to be named later I the previous august in the Walker deal - and the Cards claimed him off waivers from the Sox the next august. Most of Theo's best moves have been in low risk free agents - Arroyo, Mueller, Millar, Foulke, Bellhorn, Ortiz. Mirabelli for Loretta was quite a good deal - and the renteria for crisp deal also included josh bard, who was certainly good.

01-19-2007, 07:47 PM	#7 (permalink)
ingagi Member Join Date: Jan 2007 Posts: 32	Amazing the young talent the Sox have traded off here-Freddy Sanchez, Ramirez to Fla, Riske etc. Oh well. You do have to give up something to get something, though the Arroyo trade was strange. Willy Mo has a bat, sure--but seems you can find more like him than like Arroyo, you know? Maybe Theo and Weird Henry need break that chimpsuit back outta mothballs and see if it can manage to work it's magic on'em again. Or not, your choice.

01-21-2007, 10:45 PM	#8 (permalink)
AutomatedTeller Moderator Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 545	Sanchez was a bad move... but on the other hand, it's not like he was any sort of hot prospect - the Pirates didn't give him a full time job for quite some time, until he basically forced them to by hitting and not stopping hitting. He will never win another batting title, though.

01-24-2007, 01:23 PM	#9 (permalink)
rubberball Member Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 29	didnt we get Mike Gonzalez from pitsburg in the suppan/sanchez trade but had to send him back because of the whole Brandon Lyons arm thing?