BoSox come to agreement with Matsuzaka (title updated)

RangerFan09 · 11-28-2006, 08:04 PM

Red Soxs make fair offer (ESPN.com)

If I was a Red Sox fan i wouldn't like hearing that a fair offer was made to a Boras Client. Becuase no offer is fair to Boras.

SportsFanForLife · 11-29-2006, 06:04 AM

I assume the deal with come to around 12 or 13m a year - and with the sox paying Drew about 15m a year, it's going to get pretty expensive this offseason.

Papi4President · 12-01-2006, 09:08 AM

I am of the belief that is/when Manny leaves this team becomes a 4th place team.

I know/ I know.... pitching and defense are 90% of the game.... However there are simple items that must occur for the theorem to work...

1) you "MUST" give that great pitching some room for error...

I saw an article that had used the stats for all of MLB for the last 15 years. The attempted to figure out if there was a correlation between RS and Wins....

Using every team's stats in MLB they came up with <4.6 runs/gm avg = losing team...
4.6- 5.4 runs/ game is the .500 teams... the teams that given a break one way or another can be there of just be out of contention...
>5.6 runs/game is the consitently winning teams.

SO this is all great... why bring it up?.... Well simply put the difference between Manny in and out of the lineup is somewhere close to 1.2-1.5 runs/game. Lets not kid ourselves NANCY "DL" DREW won't make up much of that.... further more, he will NOT provide the protection Papi needs to be the most clutch player in the game....

I am not sure if given those items that this "Super" pitching staff will be able to overcome the immense lack of offense.
The main reasoning is...... SO we have the best starters in the game..... they all go 6-7 innings... doing great! However, then we bring in one of the worst BP's in the league.... We have no extra offense so that they have a lead to work with... MDC gives up a run in his 2/3 of an inning.. leaves men on 1st and 2nd.... Hansen comes in to finish the inning.... BINGO... double... and a single the a "K".... 3 runs in the inning but we are out of the inning..... We are now leading 4-3 going into the bottom of the 9th..... bring in the closer...... and out steps TIMLIN.... Chaw in the JAW.... Coat over the shoulder sauntering in towards the mound.... WHO has a good feeling?

AutomatedTeller · 12-01-2006, 11:13 AM

Manny is worth 1.2 runs a game? Compared to what - me batting 4th?

If Manny is worth 1.2 runs a game, he is tremendously underpaid and should easily be the MVP of the league. No one is worth that.

Of course the Sox can win without Manny. They need talent back for him and they need to spend the $18M they save with Manny gone in a smart way - but the Tigers went to the world series with no hitter as good as Manny or Ortiz. The Cards won the world series with only 1 great hitter and a shaky pitching staff. OK, so they barely made it to the postseason, so maybe they arent' the best model.

Teams have won everything with all sorts of teams - not having Manny doesn't automatically relegate the Sox to mediocrity.

I do agree that if the Sox lose manny's O, they need to either replace it or shore up the staff, and especially the pen.

Drury77 · 12-01-2006, 11:19 AM

It's gonna be hard to see Manny go, even if I'm tired of his antics.

This whole Matsuzaka thing is insane. we paid 50 + million just to talk to this guy, and all the while knowing that Boras is a ***** to get a deal with. Boras is always going for the biggest contract he can possibly find, even if it means ruining the game/payscale of the game, costing us fans even more to watch a kids game.

AutomatedTeller · 12-01-2006, 04:54 PM

Fortunately, if the Sox can't get to an agreement, the posting fee is refunded.

Zen653 · 12-01-2006, 05:16 PM

I think the hype is too great for even Larry Lucchino to overcome. The Red Sox signed Hideki Okajima, in part to ease Matsuzaka's transition to Boston. They've already sent a delegation out to Japan to work on marketing opportunities with Seibu. Lucchino has even said in the press rather matter-of-factly that Matsuzaka will be a Red Sox player. It sounds, to me, at least, that he's confident a deal will get done. The Red Sox seem to have a good relationship with Scott Boras.

If Boras is asking for 6 years at $12 million per year, the Red Sox can probably negotiate that down to 5 years/$55 million plus a vesting option for a sixth year at $12-14 million. Maybe throw in a few bonuses for All-Star appearances. I was worried that Boras would insist on a short-term contract at $15-16 million per year. That would have been problematic because it would have given the Red Sox less of an opportunity to recoup the posting fee.

One way or another, we're taking a huge gamble here. This will easily dwarf any other initial contract signed by an international player. Let's hope that Matsuzaka doesn't become the afterwood to the Robinson Checo Story.

RMF · 12-01-2006, 07:25 PM

What I've heard is that Boras would prefer to have a shorter deal. Something like 2 years. I'm sure the Sox want at least 3. The real deal is what this 51 million # means. There is now way any team in baseball spends 80 million for 3 years of pitching. Someone is going to take it in the butt. I suspect it will be Seibu.

I believe if there is no deal he becomes a free agent URFA next season. Boras doesn't give discounts. So expect him to want a whole lot of money for his guy.

I think the Sox are really going to pay on this deal. He's got great numbers and a good arm. But I wouldn't be comfortable with the level of risk involved with this deal if I were Boston's GM. You have to wonder if Theo doesn't know this is a wounded duck and is sending Larry to his grave.

rubberball · 12-01-2006, 08:42 PM

you have to consider the player. Most, not all, players from Japen are very interested in their honor, the teams honor and the games. When Dice asked to be posted I believe he will be seen as dishonored if he does not sign a contract. He honored his team by geting 50+ million for them. he (hopefully) will honor the game by pitching up to the expectations. Now he has to honor himself and sign a contract.

plus how pissed would pissed would the Seibu team be to lose 50 million cuz boras wanted 2 millon more a year. i wouldnt be surpised to hear the Liions giving his family 5-10 millions as a gift to make up for a lower total contract from the sox.

Zen653 · 12-08-2006, 07:11 PM

Am I the only person here sort of hoping that Matsuzaka doesn't sign with the Red Sox? I'd much rather pay Roger Clemens the big bucks for a year. He's more of a sure bet than Matsuzaka. He also gives the Red Sox greater contractual flexibility since he'd only be signing a 1 year deal. We could always try again for Matsuzaka next year.

WhosyourPapi???? · 12-08-2006, 10:34 PM

No offence Zen, but i think you might be the only one. Sure we spent alot for him(assuming we get him) but he is a young good pitcher who could be an ace on most teams. If we tried next year Boston
wouldn't get him, the yankees would.

steeplechase3k · 12-09-2006, 02:18 AM

There are aparently reports on a Springfield, MA radio station that an agreement has been reached for something like 5/$55 million. THis is all 3rd or 4th hand, because I don't live there.

cjelephant · 12-09-2006, 11:08 AM

I hate to say this about a fairly unproven player - but this is becoming a "must-sign" for the Sox.

cjelephant · 12-10-2006, 03:07 PM

ESPN reporting that the Sox have virtually lost any chance of signing him, unless there is an abrupt change.

rubberball · 12-10-2006, 04:57 PM

ESPN is full of crap... didnt they say the a-rod for manny trade would happen any second?

All theses guys want is the chance to say after the fact that:

"we reported 12-10 that the sox would not sign him"
or
" we reported 12-10 that the sox would not sign him unless there was an abrupt change... well, I dont think i have ever seen such an abrupt change before this!"

11-28-2006, 08:04 PM	#1 (permalink)
RangerFan09 Member Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 157	BoSox come to agreement with Matsuzaka (title updated) Red Soxs make fair offer (ESPN.com) If I was a Red Sox fan i wouldn't like hearing that a fair offer was made to a Boras Client. Becuase no offer is fair to Boras.

12-01-2006, 11:19 AM	#5 (permalink)
Drury77 Hockey Community Mod Join Date: Nov 2006 Location: Clarksville, TN Posts: 881	It's gonna be hard to see Manny go, even if I'm tired of his antics. This whole Matsuzaka thing is insane. we paid 50 + million just to talk to this guy, and all the while knowing that Boras is a ***** to get a deal with. Boras is always going for the biggest contract he can possibly find, even if it means ruining the game/payscale of the game, costing us fans even more to watch a kids game. __________________ Visit Traci's Card Place \| Stop by the Bruins Forum \| Stop by the Predators Forum

12-01-2006, 05:16 PM	#7 (permalink)
Zen653 Hall of Famer Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 6,636	I think the hype is too great for even Larry Lucchino to overcome. The Red Sox signed Hideki Okajima, in part to ease Matsuzaka's transition to Boston. They've already sent a delegation out to Japan to work on marketing opportunities with Seibu. Lucchino has even said in the press rather matter-of-factly that Matsuzaka will be a Red Sox player. It sounds, to me, at least, that he's confident a deal will get done. The Red Sox seem to have a good relationship with Scott Boras. If Boras is asking for 6 years at $12 million per year, the Red Sox can probably negotiate that down to 5 years/$55 million plus a vesting option for a sixth year at $12-14 million. Maybe throw in a few bonuses for All-Star appearances. I was worried that Boras would insist on a short-term contract at $15-16 million per year. That would have been problematic because it would have given the Red Sox less of an opportunity to recoup the posting fee. One way or another, we're taking a huge gamble here. This will easily dwarf any other initial contract signed by an international player. Let's hope that Matsuzaka doesn't become the afterwood to the Robinson Checo Story. Last edited by Zen653; 12-01-2006 at 05:21 PM.

12-09-2006, 02:18 AM	#12 (permalink)
steeplechase3k Member Join Date: Nov 2006 Location: Portland, OR Posts: 125	There are aparently reports on a Springfield, MA radio station that an agreement has been reached for something like 5/$55 million. THis is all 3rd or 4th hand, because I don't live there. __________________ --There are some who call me... Tim.--

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11-29-2006, 06:04 AM	#2 (permalink)
SportsFanForLife Rookie Member Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 11	I assume the deal with come to around 12 or 13m a year - and with the sox paying Drew about 15m a year, it's going to get pretty expensive this offseason.

12-01-2006, 09:08 AM	#3 (permalink)
Papi4President New Member Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 9	I am of the belief that is/when Manny leaves this team becomes a 4th place team. I know/ I know.... pitching and defense are 90% of the game.... However there are simple items that must occur for the theorem to work... 1) you "MUST" give that great pitching some room for error... I saw an article that had used the stats for all of MLB for the last 15 years. The attempted to figure out if there was a correlation between RS and Wins.... Using every team's stats in MLB they came up with <4.6 runs/gm avg = losing team... 4.6- 5.4 runs/ game is the .500 teams... the teams that given a break one way or another can be there of just be out of contention... >5.6 runs/game is the consitently winning teams. SO this is all great... why bring it up?.... Well simply put the difference between Manny in and out of the lineup is somewhere close to 1.2-1.5 runs/game. Lets not kid ourselves NANCY "DL" DREW won't make up much of that.... further more, he will NOT provide the protection Papi needs to be the most clutch player in the game.... I am not sure if given those items that this "Super" pitching staff will be able to overcome the immense lack of offense. The main reasoning is...... SO we have the best starters in the game..... they all go 6-7 innings... doing great! However, then we bring in one of the worst BP's in the league.... We have no extra offense so that they have a lead to work with... MDC gives up a run in his 2/3 of an inning.. leaves men on 1st and 2nd.... Hansen comes in to finish the inning.... BINGO... double... and a single the a "K".... 3 runs in the inning but we are out of the inning..... We are now leading 4-3 going into the bottom of the 9th..... bring in the closer...... and out steps TIMLIN.... Chaw in the JAW.... Coat over the shoulder sauntering in towards the mound.... WHO has a good feeling?

12-01-2006, 11:13 AM	#4 (permalink)
AutomatedTeller Moderator Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 544	Manny is worth 1.2 runs a game? Compared to what - me batting 4th? If Manny is worth 1.2 runs a game, he is tremendously underpaid and should easily be the MVP of the league. No one is worth that. Of course the Sox can win without Manny. They need talent back for him and they need to spend the $18M they save with Manny gone in a smart way - but the Tigers went to the world series with no hitter as good as Manny or Ortiz. The Cards won the world series with only 1 great hitter and a shaky pitching staff. OK, so they barely made it to the postseason, so maybe they arent' the best model. Teams have won everything with all sorts of teams - not having Manny doesn't automatically relegate the Sox to mediocrity. I do agree that if the Sox lose manny's O, they need to either replace it or shore up the staff, and especially the pen.

12-01-2006, 04:54 PM	#6 (permalink)
AutomatedTeller Moderator Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 544	Fortunately, if the Sox can't get to an agreement, the posting fee is refunded.

12-01-2006, 07:25 PM	#8 (permalink)
RMF Member Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 197	What I've heard is that Boras would prefer to have a shorter deal. Something like 2 years. I'm sure the Sox want at least 3. The real deal is what this 51 million # means. There is now way any team in baseball spends 80 million for 3 years of pitching. Someone is going to take it in the butt. I suspect it will be Seibu. I believe if there is no deal he becomes a free agent URFA next season. Boras doesn't give discounts. So expect him to want a whole lot of money for his guy. I think the Sox are really going to pay on this deal. He's got great numbers and a good arm. But I wouldn't be comfortable with the level of risk involved with this deal if I were Boston's GM. You have to wonder if Theo doesn't know this is a wounded duck and is sending Larry to his grave.

12-01-2006, 08:42 PM	#9 (permalink)
rubberball Member Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 29	you have to consider the player. Most, not all, players from Japen are very interested in their honor, the teams honor and the games. When Dice asked to be posted I believe he will be seen as dishonored if he does not sign a contract. He honored his team by geting 50+ million for them. he (hopefully) will honor the game by pitching up to the expectations. Now he has to honor himself and sign a contract. plus how pissed would pissed would the Seibu team be to lose 50 million cuz boras wanted 2 millon more a year. i wouldnt be surpised to hear the Liions giving his family 5-10 millions as a gift to make up for a lower total contract from the sox.

12-08-2006, 07:11 PM	#10 (permalink)
Zen653 Hall of Famer Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 6,636	Am I the only person here sort of hoping that Matsuzaka doesn't sign with the Red Sox? I'd much rather pay Roger Clemens the big bucks for a year. He's more of a sure bet than Matsuzaka. He also gives the Red Sox greater contractual flexibility since he'd only be signing a 1 year deal. We could always try again for Matsuzaka next year.

12-08-2006, 10:34 PM	#11 (permalink)
WhosyourPapi???? Member Join Date: Nov 2006 Location: Calgary Posts: 36	No offence Zen, but i think you might be the only one. Sure we spent alot for him(assuming we get him) but he is a young good pitcher who could be an ace on most teams. If we tried next year Boston wouldn't get him, the yankees would.

12-09-2006, 11:08 AM	#13 (permalink)
cjelephant Member Join Date: Dec 2006 Posts: 47	I hate to say this about a fairly unproven player - but this is becoming a "must-sign" for the Sox.

12-10-2006, 03:07 PM	#14 (permalink)
cjelephant Member Join Date: Dec 2006 Posts: 47	ESPN reporting that the Sox have virtually lost any chance of signing him, unless there is an abrupt change.

12-10-2006, 04:57 PM	#15 (permalink)
rubberball Member Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 29	ESPN is full of crap... didnt they say the a-rod for manny trade would happen any second? All theses guys want is the chance to say after the fact that: "we reported 12-10 that the sox would not sign him" or " we reported 12-10 that the sox would not sign him unless there was an abrupt change... well, I dont think i have ever seen such an abrupt change before this!"