Predictions for the season

[AutomatedTeller]

Who will win? who will disappoint? Who will win awards?

I'll post mine in a few...

[AutomatedTeller]

My picks:

AL East:
Red Sox
Yankees
Jays
Rays
O's

Red Sox - pretty much the same team as least year, which won fewer games than expected - Eric Gagne really hurt the team. Losing Schilling hurts, adding Buchholz helps and Dice-K will be better. Lowell and Pedroia are the only regulars who should be worse, Lugo and Drew and CF should be better.

Yankees - similar to the Sox, but with more uncertainty in the rotation because of the kids and more vulnerable to injury. Betemit helps a lot with that, but AAA positional depth is very poor, where the Sox have EVERY position backed up at AAA, with good talent. I think the young pitchers struggle some.

Jays - good team. They COULD surprise, but they have a lot of players with injury history, who are old, or who aren't really all that good. I suspect they are pretty much the Jays - 83-88 wins.

Rays - baseball prospectus has them finishing 3rd, which just illustrates what everyone can see: there is a ton of talent in Tampa and the organization SEEMS to be moving towards making it a winner

O's - bad, bad team. Assuming Brian Roberts gets traded, the O's are Markakis and Jones.

AL Central:

Tigers
Indians (WC)
Twins
White Sox
Royals

Tigers are quite possibly the best team in baseball - they will lead the league in runs scored and the rotation is pretty strong. Indians have a very solid team, though I think Carmona drops off some. There isn't a lot to choose from between the Twins, White Sox and Royals - all are flawed. I think the White Sox haven't bottomed out yet and this year may be the year, but I don't think the Royals have got it figured out yet.

AL West:

LA Angels
Mariners
A's
Rangers

Angels are the easiest pick in baseball - they are just better than anyone else in the division and they have more young talent, as well. Mariners, A's and Rangers are all mediocre to bad, but Mariners are the best of the bunch and could contend if Beltre plays to his abilities and the 1B bounces back.

NL East:

Mets
Phillies
Braves
Nats
Marlins

Mets are the obvious pre-season pick for best team in the NL. I thought they were best before the Santana deal. They have depth problems, but they should win the east pretty handily. Phillies will score more runs than anyone and if the pitching comes through, can win the east. Braves have a thin and old rotation and need Jeff Francouer to step up to have a good offense. Nats are not quite the Rays of the NL, but they have a lot of talent. Marlins have decent hitting but no pitching.

NL Central:

Brewers
Cubs
Reds
Astros
Pirates
Cardinals

There are two good clubs in this division and 4 mediocre to poor ones. that said, only the Pirates are incapable of winning the division. I put Cardinals last, because they have the most potential for being bad, but they could contend, too. Pirates can't. I think the Brewers young players develop and they win, though the Cubs winning it is the dream scenario

NL West:

DBacks
LA Dodgers (WC)
Rockies
Padres
Giants

Competition. Any of the top 4 teams could win or take the wild card - this is the toughest division in baseball. Giants are gonna get their asses kicked in division games - might set a record for in-division losses. This division COULD see 4 95+ win teams, though it's a bit of a reach for the Padres - I basically picked a random order. It's almost too bad that a central team has to make the playoffs over the 3rd best team in this division.

Awards:

AL MVP: Miguel Cabrera. Gets all the credit for Detroit winning the central
NL MVP: Chase Utley. It's been too long since a Philly won the MVP.

AL Cy Young: John Lackey. No real favorite here - could be CC, Wang, Beckett, Verlander, Bedard.
NL Cy Young: Santana. Duh.

Playoffs:

ALDS Sox vs. Tigers. Schilling comes back and Sox win in 5
ALDS Angels vs. Indians. Vlady is great, Indians win.
ALCS Sox vs. Indians - Indians get revenge.

NLDS Mets vs. Dodgers. Mets roll.
NLDS DBacks vs. Brewers. DBacks young offense is awesome
NLCS Mets vs. DBacks. Mets win.

WS Mets vs Indians. Mets, I guess.

[Zen653]

I'm going to be in Europe for the next couple weeks, so I'm probably going to miss the first 5 games of the season. (I'll try to TiVo them.)

Anyway, here are my stat predictions for each player:

C Jason Varitek: .263 AVG, .352 OBA, 11 HR, 64 RBI
1B Kevin Youkilis: .275 AVG, .388 OBA, 21 HR, 88 RBI
2B Dustin Pedroia: .272 AVG, .355 OBA, 10 HR, 44 RBI
SS Julio Lugo: .255 AVG, .308 OBA, 6 HR, 42 RBI
3B Mike Lowell: .290 AVG, .358 OBA, 17 HR, 104 RBI
LF Manny Ramirez: .306 AVG, .402 OBA, 32 HR, 110 RBI
CF Jacoby Ellsbury: .279 AVG, .340 OBA, 5 HR, 36 RBI
CF Coco Crisp: .268 AVG, .336 OBA, 3 HR, 28 RBI
RF J.D Drew: .280 AVG, .384 OBA, 16 HR, 75 RBI
DH David Ortiz: .315 AVG, .430 OBA, 36 HR, 122 RBI

C Kevin Cash: .202 AVG, .255 OBA, 2 HR, 8 RBI
1B Sean Casey: .266 AVG, .322 OBA, 4 HR, 23 RBI
OF Bobby Kielty: .278 AVG, .311 OBA, 5 HR, 17 RBI

SP Josh Beckett: W(18-7), 3.48 ERA
SP Daisuke Matsuzaka: W(16-9), 4.17 ERA
SP Tim Wakefield: W(14-10), 4.68 ERA
SP Jon Lester: W(12-8), 4.85 ERA
SP Clay Buchholz: W(13-6), 4.18 ERA
SP Bartolo Colon: W(1-3), 6.38 ERA
SP Curt Schilling: W(1-0), 4.33 ERA

RP Jon Papelbon: W(2-1), 38 saves, 2.55 ERA
RP Hideki Okajima: W(4-2), 6 saves, 4.12 ERA
RP Manny Delcarmen: W(3-1), 2 saves, 3.03 ERA
RP Javier Lopez: W(1-4), 0 saves, 5.19 ERA
RP Julian Tavarez: W(5-8), 1 save, 5.67 ERA
RP Mike Timlin: W(3-4), 1 save, 4.28 ERA
RP Kyle Snyder: W(3-2), 0 saves, 4.11 ERA
RP Bryan Corey: W(2-4), 0 saves, 3.14 ERA

Red Sox All-Star representatives: Youkilis, Ramirez, Ortiz, Beckett, Papelbon
Red Sox Gold Gloves: Youkilis
Red Sox Silver Sluggers: Ortiz
Biggest positive surprises: Dusty Brown, Brandon Moss, Hunter Jones
Significant trades: Crisp and Snyder get moved by the trade deadline

[Zen653]

I posted this on another board, I'll add it here:

AL East
1. New York Yankees
2. Toronto Blue Jays (WC)
3. Boston Red Sox
4. Tampa Bay Rays
5. Baltimore Orioles

AL Central
1. Detroit Tigers
2. Cleveland Indians
3. Kansas City Royals
4. Chicago White Sox
5. Minnesota Twins

AL West
1. Seattle Mariners
2. Los Angeles Angels
3. Texas Rangers
4. Oakland Athletics

NL East
1. New York Mets
2. Philadelphia Phillies
3. Atlanta Braves
4. Washington Nationals
5. Florida Marlins

NL Central
1. Milwaukee Brewers
2. Chicago Cubs
3. Cincinnati Reds
4. St. Louis Cardinals
5. Houston Astros
6. Pittsburgh Pirates

NL West
1. Arizona Diamondbacks
2. Los Angeles Dodgers (WC)
3. San Diego Padres
4. Colorado Rockies
5. San Francisco Giants

ALDS: Tigers over Blue Jays, Mariners over Yankees
ALCS: Tigers over Mariners

NLDS: Mets over Dodgers, Diamondbacks over Brewers
NLCS: Diamondbacks over Mets

WS: Diamondbacks over Tigers

AWARDS
AL MVP - Magglio Ordonez, DET
NL MVP - Prince Fielder, MIL

AL Cy Young - Justin Verlander, DET
NL Cy Young - Brandon Webb, ARI

AL Rookie of the Year - Joba Chamberlain, NYY
NL Rookie of the Year - Cameron Maybin, FLA

AL Manager of the Year - John McLaren, SEA
NL Manager of the Year - Ned Yost, MIL

It should be a fun year. There are lots of legitimate World Series contenders this year: New York, Toronto and Boston in the AL East, Cleveland and Detroit in the AL Central, Los Angeles and Seattle in the AL West. Then in the National League, you have New York in the NL East and maybe a team like Arizona, Chicago or Philadelphia if everything breaks right (as I think it will for Arizona.)

[adeel]

Originally Posted by Zen653

I posted this on another board, I'll add it here:

AL East
1. New York Yankees
2. Toronto Blue Jays (WC)
3. Boston Red Sox
4. Tampa Bay Rays
5. Baltimore Orioles

Wow, this has to be my favourite post of yours by far. I think the Jays have what it takes to win the division, but I'd be surprised if it all came together. Their rotation is as good as any in the AL, but it needs to perform up to par and the hitting needs to step up.

What's your beef with the Sox this year? First to third? I predict the AL East will finish in the same order as last year.

[Zen653]

I don't think the Red Sox will slip to third place because they are worse. I think they'll slip to third place because the Yankees and Blue Jays are healthier, and therefore better.

One of these years, the Blue Jays will finally stay healthy for a full season and realize their potential. I think they have the best pitching staff in the division. Halladay and Burnett are aces, McGowan will be a good No. 2, and I expect Marcum to pitch like a No. 3. Then there's the bullpen with Accardo and Frasor setting up Ryan.

If the Jays had a little more offense, I'd pick them to win both the division and the American League pennant. Rios-Wells-Thomas is a strong 3-4-5, I'm just not sold on the rest of Toronto's lineup. I think the Blue Jays probably should have pursued Barry Bonds to solidify their playoff positioning.

Regular season baseball favors teams with a high octane offense because good hitting teams can always beat up on bad pitching. That's why I have the Yankees winning the division. But once the playoffs start, it's all about the pitching which is why I wouldn't be surprised to see the Yankees bounced in the first round. New York just doesn't have the elite rotation depth that it needs for a deep run in the playoffs.

The Red Sox look decent on paper, but they are relying too heavily on rookies and on veterans who had career years. Mike Lowell is not going to be the Mike Lowell of 2007. Hideki Okajima will be average. I'd be surprised if Jacoby Ellsbury or Dustrin Pedroia are anywhere near as good as they were last year. Jon Lester's atrocious K/BB ratio will finally catch up to him. Clay Buchholz, like most rookies, will have his ups and downs.

Beckett and Wakefield both have back problems. Colon is pitching batting practice. The Red Sox won't get anything from Schilling until the last couple months of the season, if anything at all. J.D Drew and Julio Lugo will remain colossal wastes of money. Varitek will continue to hit poorly while being hyped up as the best catcher since Bill Dickey.

On the positive side, Ortiz and Ramirez might hit for more power, Youkilis and Papelbon will probably be about the same, Matsuzaka should improve, and Delcarmen should be ready to step up into a more challenging role. Also, the bench looks better with the upgrade from Eric Hinske to Sean Casey, and with the upgrade from the defensively-challenged Sultan of K, Wily Mo Pena, to a full year of the clutch-hitting Bobby Kielty and Gold Glove defense of whoever sits between Crisp and Ellsbury.

I think Boston's minor league depth should satisfactorily plug any small to medium-sized holes that might develop along the way. Dusty Brown and Ontario's George Kottaras look better than advertised at catcher. Jed Lowerie could replace Julio Lugo by August. Brandon Moss seems like a solid fourth outfielder. There are lots of exciting young arms in Justin Masterson and Hunter Jones.

Put the Red Sox in the AL West, NL Central or NL West, and I'd pick them as shoo-ins for the division title. In the AL East, they'll be hard-pressed to finish better than third. They don't have the offense of the Yankees and they don't have the pitching of the Blue Jays. Even if they win a respectable number of games (90+), I don't think it will be enough when the other two will win in excess of 95 games. Boston's best chance of repeating is to have the Yankees and Blue Jays roll over like they did last year (due to injuries), and for the Tigers to lose Justin Verlander and one of their hitters. And even then, Boston would still have the Indians to contend with, not to mention the Mets or pitching-rich Diamondbacks in a potential World Series. Nearly everything fell into place for Boston in 2007. I don't see things working out quite as nicely in 2008.

[adeel]

I'll respond with some thoughts later on, but can you explain why good hitting helps more than good pitching in the regular season? I don't follow baseball like I follow football.

[Zen653]

I'll respond with some thoughts later on, but can you explain why good hitting helps more than good pitching in the regular season?

In the regular season, most teams employ a 5-man rotation with a 6 or 7-man bullpen. The schedule includes games against every team in the league from the World Series contending clubs down to the perennial cellar-dwellers.

In the playoffs, teams shorten their rotations to 3-4 pitchers. Their fourth and fifth starters become relievers. The two to three worst relievers get bumped off the roster entirely. This means that you'll face much better pitching in the playoffs than you do in the regular season - first, because only the elite teams will be there; second, because even within a team, only the elite starters (primarily) will face your lineup.

During the regular season, a team like the Yankees can beat up on the Oaklands and Kansas Citys by outscoring them 10-7. They can also consistently beat up on the No. 4 and 5 starters of playoff-bound teams. If you win all your games against No. 4 and 5 starters, 20% of your games against No. 1 starters, and 50% of your games against No. 2 and 3 starters, then you'll win 32 out of every 50 games (64% winning percentage), for an overall record of 103-59. Obviously, no team is going to beat the other club's No. 4 and 5 starters every single time, so let's drop 5 games from 103 for a total number of 98. Under the wild card format, 98 wins will get you into the playoffs.

Once in the post-season, you're primarily dealing with 1-3 starters. So applying the same probabilities as in the previous paragraph, you go from winning 32 out of every 50 (64%) to winning 12 out of every 30 (40%.) A 40% winning percentage isn't enough to win a playoff round, where at worst, you have to be at 60% (in a 5 game series) or 57% (in a 7 game series.) Due to sampling issues, you could also look at this as winning 11 games out of a maximum total of 19 (a more than 57% winning percentage.)

Teams built around front-end pitching improve in the playoffs because they no longer have to send out their weak 4 and 5 guys. If a team wins almost none of the games started by its 4 and 5 pitchers, and 90% of the games started by its No. 1, 2 and 3 pitchers, then there's an overall winning percentage of 54%. This is lower than the hypothetical Yankee percentage of 64%, but look at what happens in the playoffs once you exclude the No. 4 and 5 starters. The Yankees are at 40% and the team with the front-line pitching jumps up to 90%.

That's why you often see offensive-oriented clubs bounced from the first round of the playoffs. They rack up an impressive number of regular season wins but they no longer have the No. 4 and 5 pitchers to beat up on, and that dramatically changes the landscape. It's not a coincidence that the potent Texas Ranger lineups of the 90s never got out of the first round, or that recent offense-only Yankees teams have been eliminated in the first round for three consecutive years. You need at least a little bit of offense to win in the playoffs, but frontline pitching becomes a lot more important.

[AutomatedTeller]

You have to have good hitting AND good pitching in the playoffs. The key is that the top pitching is more important in the playoffs - but making the playoffs is key, and doing so with your best players rested is key, thus depth is important.

A big key to the Sox playoff run was their ability to rest some guys some in september, because they had the lead, because the back end guys had played well enough so they took the pressure off the top guys. Like the Celtics - Garnett, Pierce and Allen are the guys, but nearly everyone has helped out, so the big 3 will be fresh for playoff time.

Where myself and Zen disagree is with the health of the Yankees and Blue Jays. I don't see any reason to think that the Yankees will be healthier than they were last year - they WEREN'T all that injured - their offense, in particular, was very healthy.

And the Jays have gotten older and managed to trade their injury prone 3B for a 3B MORE injury prone.

Were Schilling healthy or even likely to be healthy, I'd predict the Sox to have the best record in baseball and go all the way. With Schilling's issues, that's less likely, though I'll still predict them to win the east... cause this is the first time in over a decade when I could possibly do that!!!

[AutomatedTeller]

btw - BaseballProspectus has the following for the AL East:

Yankees (97 wins)
Sox (91, in a tie with Detroit for the WC)
Rays (88)
Jays (78)
O's (66)

In fact, they have the Rays as giving up the fewest runs in the league. I wonder if that's ever happened, a team going from worst to best in terms of run prevention in a single season?

They have the Jays young pitching imploding to one degree or another and no one on the offense doing much.

[AutomatedTeller]

What does the news that the Angels have basically lost Escobar for the season and that John Lackey will be out until mid may, at least, do to these rankings?

Well, I think it puts the West up for grabs. The Angels are still probably the best team out there, but they are a lot closer to the Mariners, and the A's can't be discounted - if Harden is healthy for the season, they can contend.