Off-Season Wish List

[Zen653]

As greedy as this sounds, I don't think the Red Sox should settle for two World Championships in four years. Let's build a dynasty. Let's be the first team since the 98-99-00 Yankees to win consecutive championships.

In order to boost our chances of repeating as World Series Champions, we should bolster the starting rotation, bullpen, and middle of the batting order.

Starting rotation: We don't know what we'll get out of Matsuzaka next year, and it's too risky to go into next season with four question marks in the rotation. It would help tremendously to add a starting pitcher who can give us 7 strong innings during the playoffs. After Beckett, we didn't have that this year. While names like Johan Santana are being thrown out there as potentially available, I don't think the Red Sox should surrender the youth that it would take to nab him (probably Buchholz, Lester, Lowrie and Crisp.) Epstein could be better off targeting someone like Jake Westbrook who has proven himself in October, or re-signing Clement as a reclamation project. He could also just bring Schilling back for the 1 year/$13 million that he requested. Given the dearth of free agent pitching available, it's actually a good deal to bring someone like Schilling back for just a one year commitment. He can still pitch in October and he posted a sub-4 ERA in the AL East. That's not bad at all.

Bullpen: Hideki Okajima isn't going to be as successful next year. Hitters will figure out his funky delivery and he'll need some help in the 7th and 8th innings. In 2007, he was severely overworked both during the regular season and the playoffs. To preserve his effectiveness, the Red Sox should rest him more next year, and try to add at least one additional elite setup man. The Japanese market might be the best place to look for this help. A lot of cost-effective Japanese relief pitchers have had success in the major leagues. We were fortunate to get past the vastly superior Cleveland Indians bullpen.

Offense: The Red Sox somehow managed to win the World Series with down years from Ramirez, Lugo, Crisp and Drew, a mediocre year from Varitek, and a down year (production and power-wise) from David Ortiz. If Mike Lowell returns next year (a huge if), there's no guarantee that he'll repeat his performance of 2007. I also doubt that we can expect much more out of Pedroia, Ellsbury and Youkilis who were all great for the most part. The bench didn't contribute much of anything outside of a strong April by Alex Cora and an okay second half for Bobby Kielty.

With Manny Ramirez getting older, and a year away from free agency, the Red Sox will need to replace his bat with someone capable of protecting David Ortiz. From a purely statistical perspective, Alex Rodriguez would be an excellent acquisition in that regard. For 2008, the Red Sox would have a 3-4-5 of Ortiz-Ramirez-Rodriguez. Ramirez would probably see his power numbers go up again with Alex Rodriguez hitting behind him. Then for 2009 and beyond, Ramirez would probably be gone but at least A-Rod would still be around to give the Red Sox a potent duo in the middle of the batting order. As someone who never bought into the negativity surrounding Rodriguez and his alleged inability to win, I think he would flourish in Boston for the next several years. He's not a bad person. He doesn't loaf around. The fans would embrace him if for no other reason than to stick it to New York. How do you say no to 50 homeruns and 150 RBI out of a position like shortstop or third base? The Red Sox are one of the few teams that can afford him without sacrificing other key components of the team. With Boras expected to ask for 10 years/$300 million, the Red Sox could probably get him at 7 years/$200 million, which comes out to about $28.6 million per year. Think of this as our opportunity to pull a Babe Ruth on the Yankees - add the best player in baseball for the rest of his prime.

In addition to signing Rodriguez, I think the Red Sox should make every reasonable effort to retain Mike Lowell. This might seem like overkill to some, but Lowell plays a Gold Glove-caliber defense, hits very well for his position, and plays an important role in the clubhouse. I think that Lowell would accept a slight hometown discount to remain in Boston. He seems to genuinely like it here. A guaranteed 3 years at $14 million per year, plus a team option for a fourth year that can become guaranteed with a certain number of plate appearances in the third year would likely get him to sign on the dotted line before even filing for free agency. (I think it will take $14 million a year since Lowell is clearly more valuable than J.D Drew.) The Red Sox should get this done as soon as possible. Lowell would play third base, Rodriguez would return to his natural position of shortstop.

These two free agent signings would give the Red Sox the following AAV payroll:

1. CF Jacoby Ellsbury ($300,000)
2. 2B Dustin Pedroia ($400,000)
3. DH David Ortiz ($12.5 million)
4. LF Manny Ramirez ($20 million)
5. SS Alex Rodriguez ($28.6 million)
6. 3B Mike Lowell ($14 million)
7. 1B Kevin Youkilis ($700,000)
8. RF J.D Drew ($14 million)
9. C Jason Varitek ($10 million)

10. INF Julio Lugo ($9 million)
12. INF Alex Cora ($2 million)
13. OF Coco Crisp ($5 million)

14. SP Josh Beckett ($10 million)
15. SP Daisuke Matsuzaka ($8 million)
16. SP Jon Lester ($400,000)
17. SP Clay Buchholz ($300,000)

18. RP Jon Papelbon ($800,000)
19. RP Manny Delcarmen ($500,000)
20. RP Kyle Snyder ($500,000)
21. RP Hideki Okajima ($1.25 million)

Total: $138.25 million

Now obviously the Red Sox would need to trade Lugo and Crisp, sign a backup catcher, add a starting pitcher, and fill out the bench and bullpen. Could they do all of this for less than $160 million? It seems likely. A payroll of $160 million would give them another $22 million to play around with for these holes, not including whatever is saved by moving Lugo and Crisp's contracts. This would be one possible way to proceed:

1. Exercise the $4 million option on Tim Wakefield (up to $142.75 million.)
2. Re-sign Kevin Cash for $500,000 as the backup catcher (up to $143.25 million.)
3. Trade Julio Lugo ($9 million) to the Mets, who had interest in him last off-season, for the struggling Scott Schoenweiss ($3.6 million per year through 2009.) This saves about $5 million. (down to $138.65 million.)
4. Trade Coco Crisp ($5 million), Craig Hansen ($1 million) to the Braves for Rafael Soriano ($1.2 million.) This also saves about $5 million. (down to $133.85 million.)
5. Re-sign Curt Schilling to a 1 year/$13 million deal. If you can get away with 11 or 12, great.
6. Sign another Japanese relief pitcher for $1.5 million per year and hope that it works out as well as Okajima. (up to $146.85 million.)
7. Fill out the rest of the roster with rookies and old veterans earning the major league minimum: Brandon Moss as the backup 1B/fourth outfielder, Chris Carter as the fifth outfielder/pinch hitter, Breslow/Hansack/Corey in the bullpen, etc. (up to 148.5 million.)
8. Re-sign Mike Timlin for 1 year/$2.5 million. (up to $151 million.)

If the above moves are made, the 2008 Red Sox would have an AAV payroll of around $150 million, and would look as follows:

1. CF Jacoby Ellsbury ($300,000)
2. 2B Dustin Pedroia ($400,000)
3. DH David Ortiz ($12.5 million)
4. LF Manny Ramirez ($20 million)
5. SS Alex Rodriguez ($28.6 million)
6. 3B Mike Lowell ($14 million)
7. 1B Kevin Youkilis ($700,000)
8. RF J.D Drew ($14 million)
9. C Jason Varitek ($10 million)

10. C Kevin Cash ($500,000)
11. INF Alex Cora ($2 million)
12. 1B/OF Brandon Moss ($300,000)
13. 1B/OF Chris Carter ($300,000)

14. SP Josh Beckett ($10 million)
15. SP Curt Schilling ($13 million)
16. SP Daisuke Matsuzaka ($8 million)
17. SP Jon Lester ($400,000)
18. SP Clay Buchholz ($300,000)

19. RP Jon Papelbon ($800,000)
20. RP Hideki Okajima ($1.25 million)
21. RP Rafael Soriano ($1.25 million)
22. RP Manny Delcarmen ($500,000)
23. RP Mike Timlin ($2.5 million)
24. RP Scott Schoenweiss ($3.6 million)
25. RP Tim Wakefield ($4 million)

[TrotNixonForPresident]

I would like to see most of this team come back. I don't think there are any gaping holes besides SS (I think Drew will be improved next season) and if Lowell doesn't come back, I have two ideas to replace him.

One - trade for Garrett Atkins of the Rockies. They've got Ian Stewart ready to roll there and they need to open up a spot for him. Atkins is the most likely candidate to leave.

Two - This one is a doozy. Package Coco Crisp and Jon Lester, throw in two of the upper tier prospects, put them in a shiny box and send them down to Florida for Miguel Cabrera. Miggy is getting ready to murder the Marlins in arbitration and I can see them moving him soon. Ortiz could take him under his wing, perhaps help curb his weight problem and get him straightened out. Play him at 3B for a season and then move him to LF once Manny's contract expires in 2008 (assuming the Sox decline both options).

- Now all that leaves is re-signing Schill and tweaking the bullpen and all of a sudden your 2008 team looks like this:

1. CF Jacoby Ellsbury
2. 2B Dustin Pedroia
3. DH David Ortiz
4. 3B Miguel Cabrera
5. LF Manny Ramirez
6. RF J.D. Drew
7. 1B Kevin Youkilis
8. C Jason Varitek
9. SS Julio Lugo

10. C Kevin Cash
11. INF Alex Cora
12. INF/OF Eric Hinske (bring him back cheap)
13. OF Brandon Moss

14. SP Josh Beckett
15. SP Daisuke Matsuzaka
16. SP Curt Schilling
17. SP Clay Buchholz
18. SP Tim Wakefield

19. RP Jon Papelbon
20. RP Hideki Okajima
21. RP Manny Delcarmen
22. RP Mike Timlin
23. RP Kyle Snyder
24. RP Scott Linebrink??
25. RP Luis Vizcaino??

The last two guys are FA and could be decent pickups. I know the Cabrera thing is a pipe dream, but Florida's running low on prospects since they keep calling them up and Miggy's got a chance to be a Hall of Famer. I would do cartwheels if they were able to bring him in.

[AutomatedTeller]

I'm all for building a dynasty!!

Some interesting things to think about:

If you take 20 singles from Lowell and Pedroia, and give them to Lugo and Crisp - you get a MI that hits .272 and .279, with some walks and mid-range power, and you get a .300 CF and a .290 hitting 3B.

If you do the same with Drew and Papi, but make it 10 singles, Drew turns into a .290 hitter with a near .400 OBP. Papi doesn't change all that much.

What is the point of this? Well, the guys who overachieved probably cancelled out the guys who underachieved, except that Manny didnt' hit for power the way he has. Papi did hit for power, but a lot of it went for doubles and he walked a lot, so instead of 45 HR, he hit 35.

If you combine ellsbury and crisp's year, you get about .285/.340/.410 or so, which seems like a reasonable guess as to what Ellsbury might do.

What's the point? Well, I'm thinking that this team will probably score about the same # of runs if they keep Lowell and move Crisp. Some guys will be up, some will be down.

[bulldoggie]

Originally Posted by Zen653

Epstein could be better off targeting someone like Jake Westbrook who has proven himself in October,

Yeah that 5.60 era and the 25 hits given up in 16 innings has shown that he's real good in October, don't it?

[Zen653]

Yeah that 5.60 era and the 25 hits given up in 16 innings has shown that he's real good in October, don't it?

The 5.60 ERA is misleading. Throw out the first playoff start of his career against a potent Yankee offense, and he has a 3.55 ERA. For a fourth starter in the playoffs, you can do a lot worse than a groundball pitcher with a sub-4 ERA. Everyone seems to struggle against the Yankees so it's hard to take those numbers into account when measuring a pitcher's ability. Derek Lowe was another sinkerballer with October success (notwithstanding his numbers against teams from New York.)

You're going to give up a bunch of singles when you're a groundball hurler who pitches to contact but you're also going to induce a lot of double plays (and avoid homeruns) which helps compensate for the higher hit total.

[AutomatedTeller]

Thoughts on ARod:

He's maybe the best player in baseball today...

but is he worth $28M a year? Is he even worth what he was being paid, $25M?

my understanding is that boras is trying to claim that ARod will help revenues. I'm not sure that applies to the Sox. Fenway already sells out. Sox get huge #'s seeing them on the road. ARod is supposed to what.. make NESN more desirable?

ARod has been about as good a hitter as Ortiz the last 4 years (if you just take the OPS+ for each of them and average it, you get 154 for ARod and 159 for Papi). Is the fact that he's a 3B worth $15M? Clearly not.

More and more, I think either Boras completed screwed up or ARod just wanted out of NY. I think that by opting out, ARod may well have cost himself money.

[AutomatedTeller]

Schilling is back @ base $8M, $2M in weight incentives, plus $3M in IP bonuses, plus $1M if he receives at least 1 Cy Young vote. The weight clauses were Schilling's idea.

I like the Sox's rotation for next year a lot. Lester will be one of the top #5 starters in baseball and Wakefield will be above average. If Dice-K figures out how to not implode 1 inning a game, he can turn into a top 20 AL starter.

[Zen653]

It's good to have Schilling back in the fold for only $8 million guaranteed. I'm surprised that he was willing to take a $5 million pay-cut from 2007. He easily could have received a 2 year/$27 million deal on the open market. I love it that we have so many players on the Red Sox for whom money is not the primary factor. David Ortiz accepted a hometown discount. Josh Beckett signed a team-friendly extension. Tim Wakefield took the ultimate hometown discount, essentially bargaining away his free agency rights in return for annual team options at $4 million. And now Schilling took less to stay. Let's hope that Mike Lowell extends the Red Sox a similar courtesy.

With the Yankees reportedly contemplating an offer of Chien-Ming Wang, Ian Kennedy and Melky Cabrera to the Twins for Johan Santana, should the Red Sox attempt to preempt New York? While I want to retain Buccholz and Ellsbury at all costs, I'd be willing to part with Jon Lester, Coco Crisp and some of the other prospects like Jed Lowrie (no room for him in Boston anyway), Craig Hansen, Michael Bowden, Justin Masterson and Daniel Bard. Would some combination of those players (and maybe all of them, if that's what it takes) land Santana in Boston? If so, I think it would be a reasonable deal from Boston's perspective. Sure, you're sacrificing almost the entire farm system for Santana, but think about what this would do for the Red Sox rotation these next few years. In 2008, the Red Sox would have a rotation of Beckett, Santana, Schilling, Matsuzaka and Wakefield (with Buchholz out of the bullpen in a Joba Chamberlain role.) In 09 and beyond, Buchholz would step in for Schilling or Wakefield. Now is the window of opportunity to win championships, before Ortiz, Beckett and Papelbon exit their prime. Schilling, Varitek, Ramirez, Lowell et al., are already past their peaks.

[AutomatedTeller]

I think you would only do that if you could negotiate an extension with Santana for several years.

that said, it's hard to believe that the Sox could land Santana without giving up at least one of Buchholz or Ellsbury.

[AutomatedTeller]

Welcome back, Mike Lowell, who has reportedly re-signed

[Zen653]

While perusing through ESPN, I noticed that former All-Star Steve Finley wants to play another year. He understands that he's not going to find an everyday job, or even a platoon one. He seems content with a role as fifth outfielder - something he couldn't find after being released by Colorado last year.

After 19 major league seasons, 2,548 hits and a four-month forced sabbatical last summer, Steve Finley reached a decision: He's not ready to give up on playing just yet.

Finley, one of only six players in history with more than 300 career home runs and 300 stolen bases, wants to return for a 20th season in 2008. So he's asked his agent, Casey Close, to look for openings -- even though the best he'll get is probably a minor league invite with a chance to compete for a job in spring training.

"I've still got that bug," said Finley, who turns 43 in March. "I'm still in great shape and doing my workouts. The bottom line is, I want to play."

ESPN - Veteran outfielder Finley hopes to play in 2008 - MLB

Though Finley is on the old side, he's still a good defensive outfielder with excellent baserunning speed (12 triples as recently as 2006) and a decent OBA for a bench player (.320 in 2006.) I don't think it's entirely fair to hold 2007 against him, given the small sample size of at-bats. If he's willing to battle for a spot at the end of the bench, it wouldn't hurt to invite Finley to spring training. I'd envision him as a defensive replacement for Ramirez in away games, and also as a pinch-runner. He'd battle with Moss, Carter and whoever else gets brought in to camp for the 25th spot on the roster.

[AutomatedTeller]

Finley would be interesting as a ST invitee, but I don't see it, for 3 reasons:

1) Age. Man is 42 and is a very strong candidate for having taking performance enhancers earlier in his career - it's just rare for a player to go from a mediocre one in his twenties to an excellent one in his 30's - and I think he's off the stuff, so he's back to being the mediocre player he was in his 20's... but now he's 42.
2) Performance. 2007 was a disaster for Finley... but it's not like he was any good in '05 and '06.
3) I don't know that he's a good character guy. Man's been on 5 teams in 4 years and I don't remember lot's of people talking about his great leadership.

This is the stat line for Finley for the past 3 years:

.228/.292/370

This is the stat line for Alex Cora in a Sox uniform:

.247/.289/.350

I don't know that the Sox want an OF who can barely outhit their MI.

That said, I think that the bench is a serious weakness for the Sox and something they have to address. Cora was probably the BEST bench player they had last year - no one hit a lot better than him (except Ellsbury and he's going to start) and no one had close to his defensive value.

I think they'll try to keep Hinske, assuming that his .204 BA was an aberation and he'll hit closer to .250 or better, which with his power and walks makes him useful.

[Zen653]

1) Age. Man is 42 and is a very strong candidate for having taking performance enhancers earlier in his career - it's just rare for a player to go from a mediocre one in his twenties to an excellent one in his 30's - and I think he's off the stuff, so he's back to being the mediocre player he was in his 20's... but now he's 42.

True, he does look like a classic case of someone who used steroids to prolong his career. However, I don't think advanced age should be much of a factor when merely inviting someone to spring training as a potential 25th man. Age should only matter if a player is asking for a long-term contract. Players take good care of themselves these days and it wouldn't surprise me to see an increasing number of them play into their mid-40s. Isn't Julio Franco still around? His goal is to play in a major league game at 50.

2) Performance. 2007 was a disaster for Finley... but it's not like he was any good in '05 and '06.

Finley was expected to start in '05 and '06. In '08, he's not going to be anything more than a fifth outfielder/pinch-runner, and that's if he lands a job somewhere in the majors. If he's looking for regular at-bats, he'll likely have to settle for AAA, the Mexican League, or Japan.

3) I don't know that he's a good character guy. Man's been on 5 teams in 4 years and I don't remember lot's of people talking about his great leadership.

To me, this would be the biggest reason not to sign him. When adding an older veteran player who isn't what he once was on the field, you want to make sure that he's a good character guy who can help the team in the clubhouse and serve as an extra coach. You're right that Steve Finley's name never comes up in that context. I haven't heard anyone say anything good about him, although he's managed to stay around for almost two decades.

What about signing Reggie Sanders? It would take more than a spring training invite to get him into camp, but the man can still hit, and he'd probably like a chance to win a championship. He could start in RF about once a week and serve as the primary pinch-hitter off the bench. The Red Sox would probably have to overpay for him a little because I think he might be able to find a platoon job somewhere. But it's not my money, and I think Sanders would be worth it. The Red Sox haven't had a strong bench in awhile now.

[Zen653]

With the Twins demanding at least one of Ellsbury/Buchholz, plus two other major league-ready prospects for Johan Santana, how about offering the Lester/Lowrie/Masterson package to Baltimore for Erik Bedard? He'll be cheaper and won't cost as much in terms of prospects. And he was arguably better than Johan Santana last year. ESPN reports that the Orioles will look to trade him at the winter meetings.

[Zen653]

The Boston Globe reports that the Red Sox could add to their bench by the end of the week:

The Red Sox are mulling their options and could add a lefthanded bat off the bench by the end of the week.

The Sox would love to sign Brad Wilkerson, the former Expo and Ranger, but he might have options for more money and security elsewhere. The Sox prefer someone who can play a corner infield spot and protect either Kevin Youkilis and/or Mike Lowell. In the past the Sox have rested Lowell by moving Youkilis to third. That could still happen if the Sox obtain a backup first baseman.

There are still interesting ones out there such as Sean Casey, Tony Clark, Doug Mientkiewicz, Mark Sweeney, and Eric Hinske.

Casey, 33, is an intriguing possibility. He's lost his first base job to Carlos Guillen in Detroit. He's limited defensively, but he hit .296 last season with four homers and 54 RBIs. He also hit .455 as a pinch hitter (5 for 11) with three RBIs. He had a .353 on-base percentage and has a .366 OBP over his 11-year career. Casey loves Boston and at this stage of his career has indicated his main objective is to play for a team that can win the World Series. He would accept a limited role.

There are also lefthanded-hitting outfielders such as Trot Nixon, Shawn Green, Luis Gonzalez, and Ryan Klesko (who can play first), but the need is more for a true first baseman or third baseman from the left side.

Extra Bases - Red Sox blog

I agree with Nick Cafardo that Sean Casey would be a good pickup for the Red Sox. He's a solid hitter, a gritty veteran, and a positive clubhouse presence according to his former managers and teammates. If he's willing to be a reserve player, you could do a lot worse than Sean Casey. I love the fact that he's been an excellent pinch-hitter throughout his career and could capably step in as a starter in the event of a Youkilis injury.

I'm not interested in Hinske, who while defensively versatile and more nimble on his feet than his body-type would otherwise indicate, simply cannot hit. I'd bring him back for short money on a non-guaranteed deal, or if no one better is available, but he shouldn't be at the top of the list.

Sweeney gets injured too often and can't play a lick of defense. I also think he could find a platoon job somewhere. I wouldn't be surprised to see him remain with the Kansas City Royals or go to a non-contending NL team.

Tony Clark is too old and had the worst season of his career in Boston. Some guys simply can't handle big baseball markets and Clark might be one of them.

Brad Wilkerson would be a great acquisition who could play 1B and the OF, but I'd be surprised if he can't find another team willing to play him a lot more than the Red Sox would play him. It's not realistic to expect him to accept a bench role as he enters the prime years of his career. I'd also be worried about a repeat of the Jay Payton situation where you have a player accustomed to starting who doesn't want to sit on the bench and starts up all kinds of trouble. (That's also why I think it's time to trade Coco Crisp before he becomes the bad apple backing up Jacoby Ellsbury.)

I'd target Sean Casey and Reggie Sanders (who still doesn't get mentioned in connection to the Red Sox for whatever reason.) If not Sanders, I'd bring back Kielty who worked out well (and not just because of the World Series-clinching homerun.) A bench of Mirabelli, Casey, Cora, Sanders/Kielty and Moss would be an improvement over what the Red Sox had last year.