Projecting and Analyzing the Free Agents - Team projections/needs added

[Heltonfan]

Season's over, time to look forward to next year. Here are my 2008 projections: Google Docs - 2008projections

I'm excited about this year's set of projections; I made a couple significant changes.

- The superiority of the AL is now built into the individual player projections. Projections are made for a completely neutral environment; that is, a guy with a .263 ABR projection (the yellow-highlighted column in the spreadsheet) is an average MLB hitter, but he'd be expected to hit roughly .260 in the AL and .266 in the NL. An average pitcher (4.00 ERC) would be around 3.87 in the NL and 4.13 in the AL.

- I revamped the aging patterns. The old system had been far too kind to guys over 35. Now, substantial decline is expected; for instance, seven years from now, A-Rod projects to be roughly an average player.

Current projected standings, with free agents not assigned to any team:

NYY 91, BOS 86, TB 85, TOR 82, BAL 73
CLE 89, DET 86, MIN 80, CWS 73, KC 72
LAA 90, OAK 89, SEA 75, TEX 75

ATL 90, NYM 83, PHI 80, FLA 77, WSH 73
CHC 86, MIL 83, CIN 79, PIT 77, STL 73, HOU 70
SD 87, LAD 86, ARI 84, COL 84, SF 73

I'll have more stuff about the free agent market later.

[Heltonfan]

The following is a list of the top free agents, ranked by projected 2008 wins above replacement level (WAR). For these purposes, every free agent is projected to play a full season; obviously, in some cases (Bonds, Bradley, Castro), the numbers should be adjusted downward to account for their lower playing time.

I've listed everyone at each position who projects at 1 WAR or higher. Keep in mind that an average everyday player is around the 2 WAR level; this is a very weak market.

SP

Schilling, Curt 3.04
Kuroda, Hiroki 2.27
Lohse, Kyle 2.08
Rogers, Kenny 1.96
Silva, Carlos 1.82
Garcia, Freddy 1.78
Colon, Bartolo 1.43
Jennings, Jason 1.37
Lieber, Jon 1.29
Clement, Matt 1.17
Kennedy, Joe 1.12
Glavine, Tom 1.02

No real surprises here. I'm not sure if Kuroda has decided to come to the majors, but he's been rumored to, and he looks like a league-average starter. Which in this market is a rare commodity indeed.

RP

Rivera, Mariano 2.44
Cordero, Francisco 1.63
Gagne, Eric 1.57
Iwase, Hitoki 1.39
Percival, Troy 1.22

Percival had a tremendous comeback year. Hitoki Iwase has put up some tremendous numbers in Japan; he's not another Saito, but he could be another Otsuka. And yes, the projections like Gagne quite a bit. Why shouldn't they? He averaged a strikeout per inning with a very low HR rate this year.

C

Posada, Jorge 3.61
Castro, Ramon 1.73
Barajas, Rod 1.00

If Posada decides to leave the Bronx, we could have a very interesting bidding war on our hands. The guy is a stud, and there are plenty of contending teams (Brewers, Mets, Devil Rays - yes, the Rays are contenders) in need of a catcher. Ramon Castro deserves a starting job somewhere, but he probably won't get one.

1B

None. This is the worst crop of free agents at one position that I've ever seen. The best guy out there is Mike Sweeney, who's maybe a couple runs above replacement level. This is why the Tigers moving Guillen to first base actually makes sense; there's just nothing out there.

2B

Iguchi, Tadahito 1.93
Castillo, Luis 1.28
Matsui, Kazuo 1.05

Iguchi fell off the radar after becoming a backup in Philly, but he's a fine player.

SS

None. David Eckstein is the best out there, at 0.66 WAR.

3B

Rodriguez, Alex 5.89
Lowell, Mike 1.85

That's a massive regression for Lowell; that awful 2005 season, combined with his age, just kills his projection.

LF

Bonds, Barry 4.44
Bradley, Milton 4.15

That represents a substantial decline for Bonds. Bradley is a hell of a ballplayer; he's coming off an ACL tear, and he's injury-prone anyway, so expecting a full season is quite unrealistic, but even if he can only stay healthy for two thirds of a season, he's an extremely valuable player.

CF

Hunter, Torii 3.43
Cameron, Mike 2.07
Rowand, Aaron 1.52
Jones, Andruw 1.49
Patterson, Corey 1.48

Finally, things get interesting. We've been seeing Hunter and Jones lumped together as top free agent CFs for a long time now; obviously, the projections disagree. There are a couple reasons for this: first, the ZRs suggest that Hunter is about 10 runs better defensively. Andruw has rated as a below average defender in three of the past four years. The second reason is simple: Andruw hit .222/.307/.413 this year. Hunter hit .287/.331/.505, playing in the stronger league.

Obviously, the projection system doesn't think Rowand's offensive breakthrough is for real. Nor does it think he's anything special defensively. Jones and Rowand are likely to be two of the most overpaid players on the market.

RF

Fukudome, Kosuke 4.45
Kielty, Bobby 1.01

As discussed above, Fukudome's a tremendous player. He's coming off his worst season since 2004... and in this "down year", he put up a .440 OBP. And Japanese ball is lower scoring than MLB, so that .440 is extra impressive.

Next up: free agent valuation. Turning wins into dollars.

[Heltonfan]

Alright, let's figure out some contracts.

Last year, the going rate on the free agent market was $4.7 million per win (I had calculated $4.3m/win previously, but that was using the overly generous aging patterns). This year, with a little more inflation, we should be right around the $5 million per win mark. So, using $5m/win as a target, here's what these guys are worth (making reasonable assumptions about contract length):

A-Rod: 7 years, $201 million. He'll probably get more than that, of course... but the projection system understands that paying $30 million a year for a guy in his late 30s is insane.

Fukudome: 4 years, $91 million. This is very interesting, because I can't imagine he'll get anywhere near that. But even if we chop 20 points off his ABR projection, putting him at .291 (Hideki Matsui level), he's still a $15 million a year guy. Like I said, out of our price range, but I suspect he'll be a bargain for whoever ends up with him.

Hunter: 5 years, $73 million. Nothing controversial here.

Bradley: 3 years, $42 million. This is what he's worth if he only gets 400 PA a year; if he can stay healthy for a full season, he's a $20 million player like Fukudome. And, like Fukudome, I suspect that he'll be one of this winter's bargains.

Posada: 3 years, $51 million. Another bargain candidate; I can't imagine him actually getting that much.

Rivera: 3 years, $37 million.
Lohse: 3 years, $29 million.
Silva: 3 years, $25 million.
Cameron: 3 years, $25 million.
Cordero: 3 years, $24 million.
Patterson: 3 years, $21 million.

Iguchi: 3 years, $25 million. But we might be able to get him for half that. This is why I keep touting him.

Rowand: 5 years, $24 million. He's a below-average player on the wrong side of 30. By 2009, he'll be a fourth outfielder. And he's likely to get at least $50 million. This has disaster written all over it.

Jones: 5 years, $23 million. See above. Andruw is the odds-on favorite to be this winter's biggest albatross.

Bonds: 1 year, $18 million.
Schilling: 1 year, $15 million.

Lowell: 3 years, $22 million. Another guy likely to be overpaid.

Looking through this, I think the $5m/win level makes a lot of sense. I've listed about as many likely albatrosses as likely bargains, so the overall average is about right.

[Heltonfan]

This is something I hope to make a regular feature on this thread, team-by-team overviews. I don't know if I'll be able to keep this up long enough to do all 30 teams, so for now, I'll just start by doing teams that I find interesting. And the Devil Rays are as interesting as they come.

Summary Statistics (projected Runs Above Average, or RAA)
Rotation: -6
Bullpen: -20
Lineup: +51
Bench: +12
Defense: -4
W-L record: 85-77

I'm surprised that none of you guys have questioned my projecting the Rays to finish over .500. But this is a very good team, and with a little work, it can be made into a great one. Let's go through the roster:

Rotation (with projected ERCs)

Kazmir 3.15
Shields 3.74
Howell 4.49
Hammel 4.68
Sonnanstine 4.69

A Devil Rays team with no truly awful starting pitchers? It's unheard of. They've got more pitching depth now than they've ever had before; and this front five is just the tip of the iceberg. Edwin Jackson, Jacob McGee, Wade Davis, and Jeff Niemann all project right around replacement level for '08, and they've all got the potential to be much more than that. Not to mention David Price, the #1 pick in the '07 draft (for whom I don't have a projection because he hasn't pitched professionally yet... but based on his college stats, he's probably in the same range as the other youngsters mentioned here).

And of course, it's not just that they've got depth; Kazmir-Shields is a terrific 1-2 punch.

Bullpen

Wheeler 3.63
Reyes 4.01
Switzer 4.05
Dohmann 4.36
Orvella 4.41
Medlock 4.61
Balfour 3.21

I list Grant Balfour at the bottom because his projection is based on only 65 innings of data; I doubt he's really that good (I adjust for this in the team projections by giving him fewer innings). Anyway, this is a brutal bullpen, maybe the league's worst (Baltimore is up there as well, along with the now Zumaya-less Tigers). I don't think this requires any further explanation; these guys just stink.

Lineup (numbers given are projected WAR, and then ABR and defense runs in parentheses)
C: Navarro 0.98 (.240, -1)
1B: Pena 3.22 (.304, -4)
2B: Iwamura 3.03 (.278, -2)
SS: Harris 0.81 (.255, -14)
3B: Longoria 2.02 (.266, 0)
LF: Crawford 4.68 (.301, 8)
CF: Upton 3.67 (.295, -5)
RF: Young 2.12 (.269, 3)
DH: Gomes 1.79 (.279)

That's a tremendous collection of talent. Crawford is a star. Upton is on his way to becoming one. Pena won't repeat what he did this year, but he's still probably the best offensive first baseman in the AL. Longoria is big-league ready. They do have to do something about the outfield logjam, though. I'll address that later.

Bench
Riggans .235
Norton .253
Baldelli .270
Snelling .255
Ruggiano .265

Baldelli projects at 3.00 WAR as an everyday player; he's far too good to be left on the bench. And he won't be; they're bound to do something. Justin Ruggiano is a favorite sleeper prospect of mine, an outfielder who has done nothing but rake in the minors (.309/.378/.502 at AAA Durham this year). He gives the Rays a total of five outfielders who could play every day without embarrassing themselves... and Snelling could very well be a sixth.

If I Were in Charge, I Would: Spend. A lot. This is a team that went through the '07 season with a payroll around $25 million - they could double that, and still be $40-50 million below average. Because of the tremendous value that they're getting out of Kazmir, Shields, Crawford, Upton, Longoria, etc., they can afford to pay market value for free agents. And after all, if they want to be a viable franchise in the long term, they're going to have to up the payroll at some point... why not now?

They've got obvious holes at C, SS, and in the bullpen, and they could use a league-averageish innings eater. They ought to be able to land one of Rivera/Cordero/Gagne, and they should be a serious contender for Hitoki Iwase as well. It wouldn't hurt to bring in a couple Julio/Hawkins/Romero types, just to ensure that they won't be giving any significant innings to the Brian Stokeses of the world.

I'd avoid the free agent starting pitching market, with the possible exception of Kuroda; the guys available are average pitchers at best, who might turn out not to be any kind of upgrade over what the Rays already have. And we know that they'll be hideously expensive.

The catching issue is simple: make a run at Posada. I'm seeing 3/40 bandied about for him; the Rays should be willing to go to 3/50, and I'll bet that would get it done. If not, go after Ramon Castro, and hope that Navarro develops enough to relegate Castro to backup status by July.

SS is weak, and will remain so; there just aren't any viable options out there. I've played around with the idea of the Rays going after A-Rod... it makes some sense, in that it would bring life to the brand name, but ultimately, I can't justify spending $300 million on him.

Beyond that, we're into trade possibilities. Two ideas:

1) Ringolsby says that the Giants have let it be known that Lincecum can be had for a "quality bat." If this is true - and knowing Brian Sabean, it very well might be - I'd see if they'd accept Carlos Pena. It's a completely ridiculous trade... Pena turns 30 next year, and Lincecum is already projecting as the second-best pitcher in baseball... but hell, it's worth a shot. I'd happily throw in one from the Niemann/McGee/Davis group to make it happen; Lincecum's probably the single most valuable property in the game today, a true ace who's six years away from free agency. I'm going to refrain from Lincecum trade suggestions in future team spotlights; just take it as a given that there isn't a team out there who shouldn't be trying to take Sabean to the cleaners if at all possible.

2) Trade Delmon Young for a pitcher. I think a Delmon trade is the best way to solve the outfield logjam; Crawford and Upton are too good to trade, and Baldelli's value is at an all-time low right now, so that leaves us with only one option. And Delmon has hardly improved at all over the past two years; for all his potential, he's a hacker who isn't likely to remain a defensive asset for much longer. There's a real chance that he never develops into more than an average player. Using my projections, which see him taking significant steps forward, he's expected to produce an average of 2.53 WAR over the next five years. That's awfully valuable, to be sure... but it's far from irreplaceable.

Obviously, though, the trick is figuring out what pitcher to target. It ought to be someone under contract fairly cheaply for at least 3-4 years, because the Rays have to think long-term... and I just don't know how valuable other teams think Delmon is. I'm guessing that King Felix is out of the question here (as he should be). Ditto Cole Hamels. But Yovani Gallardo might be obtainable. Of course, the problem is that once you get past those guys, there's hardly anyone else out there who would be a sufficient return for Delmon. Chris Young, maybe.

Alternatively, they could go for a lesser pitcher and try to shore up SS. The Twins desperately need outfield help, and Delmon is the kind of toolsy player I'm sure they'd love to have. Delmon for Jason Bartlett and one of Slowey/Baker/Garza might work.

And, just to close with the craziest idea of all... if the Rays want to win 95 games this year, there's a way for them to do it. Make Delmon the centerpiece of a Santana deal. It sounds nuts, I know... a team coming off a 96-loss season, acquiring a star player with one year left on his contract?... but, worst-case scenario, if it's clear that they won't make the playoffs, they can cut their losses and deal Johan in July. Best-case scenario, it's the beginning of a dynasty. By all rights, this shouldn't happen, since there are teams out there with more narrow windows of contention who should be willing to outbid the Rays for Johan, but wow, is it ever fun to imagine.

[Heltonfan]

I've settled on an order in which to do these team overviews; I'm going in descending order of the difference between the team's '07 performance and their '08 projection. The Rays come out first in that measure by a country mile; let's just say that if I were to put out a Prospectus-style preview book next winter, I think the Rays would be the odds-on favorites to be prominently mentioned on the back cover as an example of the system's clairvoyance.

Onto the defending champs. We've already discussed the Red Sox a little... here's the full analysis.

Summary Statistics
Rotation: +20
Bullpen: +5
Lineup: +57
Bench: -11
Defense: -31
W-L record: 86-76

Rotation

Matsuzaka 3.32
Beckett 3.35
Buchholz 4.17
Wakefield 4.35
Tavarez 4.36

Even without Schilling, that's a fine rotation. And Clay Buchholz obviously has the potential to beat his projection handily. So does Wakefield; the spreadsheet doesn't know that he's a fundamentally different animal. But of course, there are substantial risks associated with both of those guys; even if they beat their ERC projections, they might only combine for 250 innings instead of 380. All told, I think the +20 figure given above is a pretty good assessment of this rotation.

Bullpen

Papelbon 1.99
Delcarmen 3.49
Okajima 4.05
Lopez 4.26
Lester 4.56
Snyder 4.61
Corey 4.81

That's a heck of a regression for Okajima; the system is (understandably) quite rigid in its belief that guys in their 30s shouldn't have breakout years. Anyway, the picture here is perfectly clear: after Papelbon, there's not much to like. They could really use some added depth in the pen.

Lineup

C: Varitek 1.69 (.253, 0)
1B: Ellsbury 1.16 (.261, 2)
2B: Pedroia 3.11 (.274, 1)
SS: Lugo 1.24 (.240, -1)
3B: Youkilis 2.31 (.284, -8)
LF: Ramirez 2.33 (.309, -19)
CF: Crisp 1.69 (.260, -3)
RF: Drew 1.76 (.280, -7)
DH: Ortiz 5.82 (.344)

Before anyone asks: no, I don't expect Ellsbury to see a single inning at 1B. He's listed there as a placeholder, because we know they're going to add someone, and running the projections with Ellsbury at 1B gives a better representation of the club's talent level than leaving the position vacant.

Anyway, this is where it becomes clear that the 2008 Red Sox, as currently constructed, are not an elite team; aside from Ortiz, this group of position players is average at best. And they're average-ish even though I'm predicting substantial rebounds for three guys in their 30s (Manny, Drew, and Lugo); I think it's pretty unlikely that I'm significantly underrating the group.

Bench

Mirabelli .191
Carter .248
Cora .201
Moss .249

Mirabelli is a free agent, but I'm assuming that he'll be back since Wakefield is returning. Chris Carter is the guy they got in exchange for Wily Mo; he looks to be a decent hitter.

If I Were in Charge, I Would: Gosh, this is tough. A lot tougher than the Rays to figure out, at least. This is not an easy team to upgrade, because the position players are all average-ish; there's no one position at which they're starting some replacement-level schmuck who can easily be improved upon. The weakest links are 1B and SS. There are no decent shortstops available on the free agent market... and it would appear that the only way to fix the 1B problem is to sign a 3B and let Youkilis remain at first. But of course, there are only two free agent third basemen of any value. One is Lowell, who is probably going to demand something like a 4/48 contract when he's probably worth about half that much. So that's not an option. The other guy out there, of course, is A-Rod. And while Boston is a perfect destination for A-Rod in some ways (he might actually be worth $30-35 million a year to them, and they're one of the few teams who have that kind of money), I can't recommend that they take the plunge.

So the guys they should go after, then, are:
- Schilling. 1 year, $14-15 million is perfectly harmless. Curt's still a very good pitcher.
- Fukudome and Bradley. The only other true impact players out there. No reason not to make serious offers to both of them and see what comes of it.
- Juan Rincon. Coming off a terrible season, I'll bet he could be had fairly cheaply. And if he rebounds, he's the solid 7th-8th inning guy they need.

And there are a couple other things that need to be done:

- Get rid of Alex Cora. Just a terrible player; they can't let him continue getting 200 at-bats a year. Give the utility infield spot to Jed Lowrie; that's an upgrade of almost a full win, right there.

- Get Manny the hell out of LF. I think I'd try him at 1B, but whether he moves to 1B or to another team isn't nearly as important as that he moves somewhere.

If they follow this plan, assuming they're successful in landing one of Fukudome/Bradley, they'll probably have a 92-93 win team, without significantly increasing the payroll. I think that's about as good an outcome as one could realistically hope for (keep in mind that they're over the luxury tax threshold, so every dollar saved is really $1.40).

[Heltonfan]

Onto the Pirates. Who I see being a lot better than they were this year, but still a long ways away from contention. But hey, at least Dave Littlefield's gone...

Summary Statistics
Rotation +5
Bullpen -4
Lineup -51
Bench +10
Defense +13
W-L record: 78-84

Rotation

Gorzelanny 4.02
Snell 4.13
Duke 4.31
Morris 4.53
Maholm 4.55

This, folks, is an above-average National League starting rotation. Sad, huh? The Pirates have nothing resembling an elite pitcher, but they've got five guys who clearly belong in a big league rotation, which is more than a lot of NL teams can say for themselves. These projections basically see the Pirates' starting five repeating their '07 performance, but without the BABIP and ERA luck (Snell and Gorzelanny were lucky this year; Duke, Morris, and Maholm were unlucky).

Bullpen

Capps 3.41
Marte 3.63
Grabow 4.16
Torres 4.30
Rogers 4.60
Osoria 4.81
Bullington 5.26

Yeesh. That's a frighteningly thin bullpen. Again, the fact that this group is anywhere near league-average speaks volumes about the quality of pitching in the NL right now. Replacement level for relievers is around a 4.50 ERC... the Pirates need to do some work in the minor league free agent market to clean this mess up.

Lineup

C: Paulino 1.71 (.249, 2)
1B: LaRoche 1.86 (.273, 1)
2B: Sanchez 1.74 (.256, -1)
SS: Wilson 0.55 (.229, 0)
3B: Bautista -0.18 (.247, -10)
LF: Bay 2.75 (.281, 2)
CF: Duffy 1.70 (.240, 10)
RF: McLouth 1.17 (.255, 2)

Jack Wilson is making over $14 million over the next two years. Such is the legacy left by Dave Littlefield.

Jose Bautista has been given ample opportunity to learn how to play a decent third base. He has failed. Trouble is, the Pirates don't have a remotely capable replacement in the organization. Neil Walker might be the long-term answer here, but he's certainly not ready now (.226 ABR projection).

The projections see a real bounce-back season for Bay. His ABR dropped 60 points from its 2006 level; that's not normal. He's not a star anymore, but he should still be a quality player.

Anyway, the problems with this collection of position players are self-evident. Bay is the only above-average player, and Wilson and Bautista are absolute sinkholes.

Bench

Doumit ..267
Phelps .273
Castillo .222
Nady .255
Morgan .220

Nothing wrong with this group. Doumit's the best backup catcher in the game; he really ought to be starting. Phelps was a terrific scrap heap find.

If I Were in Charge, I Would: Rebuild. There's simply not enough talent here, or on the farm, for the Pirates to contend in the near future. You might think that, since they're projected at 78 wins right now, maybe a few key acquisitions could bump them up to the 85-win range. But it doesn't work that way, because, as we saw with the Red Sox, so many of their players are around league-average. The two positions at which they could in theory make huge upgrades are SS and 3B, and there's absolutely nothing available at those positions that fits their budget.

They're coming off a 68-win season, so expectations are low... the fan base can't shrink much more than it already has over the past 15 years. I don't see much downside to a sell-off. That means trading Morris, Marte, LaRoche, Sanchez, Wilson, and, if he gets off to a hot start, Bay (no reason to trade him right now, with his value at its lowest). This would be one of the lamest fire sales of all time, but it's better than doing nothing, and it's much better than buying a Kyle Lohse in a futile attempt to make 2008 interesting.

It all comes down to the farm system. For a small-market team like the Pirates, if they can't develop their own talent, nothing else really matters. They need to start collecting guys with some upside; Daniel Moskos was a terrible use of the #4 overall pick this year.

[Timmer]

MLBTradeRumors.com predicts the top 50 free agents:

MLB Trade Rumors: 2008 Top 50 Free Agents

Time for the second annual MLBTradeRumors.com Top 50 Free Agents list!

1. Alex Rodriguez - Angels. Keith Law recently termed the Angels a "ridiculously good fit" for A-Rod. It's true. Despite what Arte Moreno says, the Angels can afford him, don't hate Scott Boras, have a third base vacancy, are expected to win in 2008, and have a low-pressure fan-base.

2. Jorge Posada - Yankees. Which team is more likely to throw an unreasonable amount of money at Posada, the Yankees or Mets? The Yankees are more desperate to save face. Plus, as Buster Olney recently noted, they can move him to DH in a few years and the contract might not look terrible.

3. Mike Lowell - Red Sox. They'll come in around four years and $48MM. Such a deal might be colored slightly by emotion but shouldn't be too damaging. If some team is crazy enough to pony up five guaranteed years, all bets are off.

4. Torii Hunter - Rangers. The White Sox present serious competition, but the Rangers seem dead-set on Hunter. And of course, he has a home near the Ballpark in Arlington.

5. Andy Pettitte - Yankees. A rare case where a player exercises a reasonably priced player option. Pettitte is a different breed of ballplayer.

6. Mariano Rivera - Yankees. Mo has postured about the Yankees being just one of 30 teams. In the end, he'll retire a Yankee.

7. Barry Bonds - Padres. I tried hard to make Barry fit on an AL team, and couldn't do it. He's not going to finish his career as DH for the Royals. While the Padres have a decent left field platoon in Scott Hairston and Jason Lane, this would be a Kevin Towers type of move if Bonds would sign for $12MM.

8. Aaron Rowand - White Sox. They'll flirt with Hunter but get Rowand. You could make a case that this contract will be no worse than Hunter's, given the age and slight salary difference. Bringing Rowand back would be a fan-pleasing move.

9. Carlos Silva - Mets. Silva is going to have tons of suitors. The Mets will come up with a reliable starter one way or another, and Silva might fit. I was originally going to put Livan Hernandez in Queens. But if you're the Mets, why not tack on another year and $11MM to get the superior, younger guy?

10. Andruw Jones - Dodgers. This is a questionable match given Ned Colletti's feelings about Scott Boras. And Juan Pierre in left field, ugh. But I could still see this happening for, say, four years and $64MM. Colletti has been willing to overpay a bit to keep the term shorter.

11. Curt Schilling - Phillies. You all know about his target list. The Phillies don't have a ton to trade and bringing Schilling back would invigorate the fan base more than signing Silva.

12. Kosuke Fukudome - Giants. They have a lot of free cash. With Barry out of the picture and A-Rod unlikely, snagging the best available Japanese player could still generate some buzz. Plus, the Giants must have identified OBP as a problem by now.

13. Francisco Cordero - Brewers. Letting Cordero go makes sense, since the Crew could snag a sweet first-round draft pick as compensation. However the Brewers can fit him into the budget and the free agent closer alternatives are uninspiring.

14. Greg Maddux - Padres. Mad Dog is one Boras client who doesn't always chase top dollar. He's comfortable in San Diego and could probably do this for another five years. He only needs 27 more wins to establish himself as third all-time ahead of Christy Mathewson. Walter Johnson's 417 is out of reach.

15. Mike Cameron - Astros. The Astros seem all about adding a center fielder and pushing Luke Scott out of the organization. They are one team that could handle Cameron's 25-game suspension without major issues.

16. Tom Glavine - Braves. Most folks seem to agree that Glavine will retire with his original team. They need rotation depth and this makes sense.

17. Hiroki Kuroda - Cubs. The Cubs don't seem content to give 40% of their starts to Jason Marquis and Sean Marshall. There's been a lot of buzz early on about the Cubs dipping into the Japanese market. Maybe they can get Kuroda for something like three years, $27MM (way more than he could earn in Japan).

18. Bartolo Colon - Mariners. This was U.S.S. Mariner's idea. He's a guy who could pair with Felix at the front of the rotation but wouldn't cause the Ms to break the bank or trade away young talent.

19. Jason Jennings - Rockies. This would be a solid replacement for the consistent 5.00+ ERA of Josh Fogg. Jennings has shown he can get it done in Coors.

20. Eric Gagne - Tigers. You have to think Scott Boras is trying to convince the Tigers to take a flier on Gagne right now, given Joel Zumaya's injury. They could also be a contender for Francisco Cordero.

21. Tadahito Iguchi - Mariners. He's a good fit here - the comfort of a huge Japanese following, a need to challenge Jose Lopez with a veteran.

22. Paul Byrd - Indians. HGH or not, he's worth $8MM on a one-year commitment.

23. Jose Guillen - Cardinals. Could La Russa keep Guillen in line? He didn't cause any clubhouse problems in Seattle. The Cards could use a right fielder with 25 HR pop, and he might be the only qualifier.

24. Kyle Lohse - Cardinals. I was going to put him with the Astros but then remembered Drayton McLane's strong dislike of Scott Boras. The Cardinals are seeking one solid starter. Lohse almost qualifies, in this market.

25. Roger Clemens - Retirement. Some say The Rocket could never go out like this. But coming back for a possibly injury-plagued '08 won't make it better. His usual three options are the Yankees, Red Sox, and Astros. Only the Astros could really entertain it, but they might prefer to close the book on him.

26. Livan Hernandez - Mariners. The Ms brought in Jeff Weaver, Horacio Ramirez, and Miguel Batista last year. Only Batista stuck. Livan is similar, an innings eater who puts guys on but wiggles out of jams. They had trade interest in him during the summer. If the Mariners sign Colon they'll need someone reliable to complement him.

27. Hitoki Iwase - Reds. It was tough for me to decide what the Reds will do. Will they sign Silva? Fill a hole with an Adam Dunn trade? The idea of signing a crack Japanese closer seems kind of out there for the Reds, but what the hell. Iwase is going to be popular this winter.

28. Kenny Rogers - Tigers. He's said it's the Tigers or retirement. He's still effective enough to keep going.

29. Kenshin Kawakami - Royals. How about an under-the-radar Japanese pitcher for the Royals? New manager Trey Hillman is perfect for this.

30. Geoff Jenkins - Tigers. The Tigers are looking for a left-handed hitting left fielder, and Jenkins fits the bill.

31. Freddy Garcia - Padres. I think the Padres could afford to add both Bonds and Garcia. They've already expressed a willingness to bring in a rehab-type or two, as the front three in the rotation should be set once Maddux signs. Matt Clement might be more likely but I could see Garcia for $6-7MM.

32. Milton Bradley - Cubs. Could Lou keep Milton happy? Bradley could be their consolation prize if they don't win the Fukudome sweepstakes. He's got pop and can help in center or right when healthy. Plus, he's a switch-hitter. They've had trade interest in him in the past.

33. Luis Castillo - Mets. I think the Mets will sign him for lack of a better option. He did a nice job for them and wants to stay.

34. Shannon Stewart - White Sox. I was considering the Tribe for Stewart but I know they want power in left field. The White Sox seem like a team that could opt for defense over power at the position.

35. Kazumi Saito - Not Posted. Just a hunch, but I feel that the Fukuoka Hawks will wait for Saito to have a healthy, effective season before posting him.

36. Kaz Matsui - Rockies. My guess is that he'll realize that he needs Coors, and settle at a reasonable price.

37. Juan Uribe - Orioles. I have Uribe as Miguel Tejada's replacement at shortstop. Someone has to fill the void. If the White Sox are intent on adding Eckstein I wouldn't expect them to want Uribe as a $5MM second baseman.

38. Pedro Feliz - Yankees. I know, it's heresy to suggest the Yankees would settle for the defense and low OBP Feliz provides. But beyond A-Rod and Lowell, what is there? A Joe Crede trade seems quite possible as an alternative.

39. Joe Borowski - Indians. The Tribe seems reasonably happy with Borowski at $4MM next year.

40. Todd Jones - Braves. If the Braves decide to stay in-house for their center field solution, they could use the excess cash to add Jones. He wants to play there and could take a discount (granted, they already have Rafael Soriano and Mike Gonzalez).

41. Yorvit Torrealba - Mets. I don't see the Mets being crazy enough to give Posada five years. Torrealba seems sufficient, no worse than the other options. A Ramon Hernandez trade seems to be a popular alternative.

42. Kenny Lofton - Twins. A trade for Coco Crisp to play center is plenty possible. But otherwise there's always Lofton to step in and not embarrass you.

43. David Riske - Phillies. I'm not sold on Riske being good for the next three years. However he's healthy and had a very good 2007, and that will get him a nice contract.

44. Randy Wolf - Diamondbacks. Part of me knows that the D'Backs really don't need more injury risk in their rotation. Still, Wolf is a smart signing and there are only so many innings-eaters to go around.

45. Michael Barrett - Marlins. Barrett seems like the Marlins' type of bargain signing. For $3MM, he could surprise. Also, maybe he could play some third base if Miguel Cabrera is traded.

46. Masahide Kobayashi - Devil Rays. It wouldn't surprise anyone to see the Rays find a Japanese bargain. Kobayashi's deceptive delivery could result in a year or two of MLB success.

47. David Eckstein - White Sox. They've liked him for a while. It's time for a change at shortstop, and Eckstein is at least someone different (and not lazy). Kenny Williams could certainly make a trade instead.

48. Luis Gonzalez - Twins. He's unwanted, so he'll be affordable. Adding Lofton and Gonzo wouldn't impress anyone, but the Twins aren't big spenders. Maybe Bill Smith will opt for a Jason Bay trade instead.

49. Mike Lamb - Phillies. The pickin's are slim at third base. A Lamb/Helms platoon might be league average. Otherwise I could see a Crede trade.

50. Jon Lieber - Nationals. They're looking for a veteran starter on a one-year deal. I think Liebs could be that guy for $5-6MM.

Honorable mentions: Brad Wilkerson, Mike Piazza, Troy Percival, Kris Benson, Omar Vizquel, Scott Linebrink, Paul Lo Duca, Octavio Dotel, Ramon Castro, Corey Patterson

[Heltonfan]

Much has been made about how lucky the ’07 Diamondbacks were. And make no mistake, they were a true .500 team at best. But the ’08 club looks pretty good; they’re not losing any important players, and the kids are bound to hit better than they did this year.

Summary Statistics
Rotation: +36
Bullpen: +19
Lineup: -39
Bench: +5
Defense: +16

Rotation

Webb 3.02
Davis 4.38
Gonzalez 4.25
Owings 4.26
Johnson 4.03

This is probably the best rotation in the NL; Webb is the best pitcher in baseball, and the other guys are all #4 starters at worst.

Nate Silver, in his offseason preview at BPro, said that “There’s an obvious place to upgrade in the starting pitching department; Webb, Davis, Micah Owings, and Johnson are a credible front four, but there’s a big drop-off after that.” I couldn’t disagree more. Edgar Gonzalez is a solid pitcher, and has been for several years now. Dana Eveland (4.10) looks like a league-average starter. Dustin Nippert (4.34) is in the same range. And Max Scherzer (4.54) isn’t far away. In other words, there isn’t anyone available who would represent more than a 6-7 run upgrade over the Diamondbacks’ eighth starter.

Bullpen

Valverde 3.26
Lyon 3.56
Pena 3.62
Cruz 3.63
Slaten 3.88
Peguero 4.31
Nippert 4.34

Even with the projected regression of Valverde, Lyon, Pena, and Cruz, this is the second-best bullpen in the league, behind the Dodgers.

Lineup

C: Snyder 1.68 (.239, 6)
1B: Jackson 1.64 (.276, -3)
2B: Hudson 1.98 (.258, 0)
SS: Drew 0.86 (.245, -8)
3B: Tracy 1.88 (.267, -2)
LF: Byrnes 1.88 (.252, 11)
CF: Young 2.08 (.260, 2)
RF: Quentin 0.80 (.250, 2)

We’ve seen the “too many average players” problem a couple times already, with the Red Sox and the Pirates; Arizona takes it to a new level. When Conor Jackson is your best hitter, you’ve got problems.

Even that ugly projection represents a major step forward for Drew; he’s got a long way to go to become a real asset.

Bench

Montero .235
Callaspo .240
Reynolds .259
Upton .246
Salazar .234

Not a bad group.

If I Were in Charge, I Would: Not do very much. The rotation is too good to be significantly upgraded. So is the bullpen. So are C, 1B, 2B, 3B, LF, and CF. Making a move at SS is out of the question because there’s nothing available, and they can’t give up on Drew’s potential. Which leaves RF as the lone position where something could be done.

So I’d look to deal Doug Davis for a bat… as previously mentioned, the D’Backs have plenty of rotation depth, so losing Davis shouldn’t hurt them at all. The Tigers might be interested; Marcus Thames or Ryan Raburn would be a nice return for Davis. If the Astros go ahead with their insane plan of signing one of the big-name free agent center fielders, Luke Scott will be available, and the ‘Stros need starting pitching in the worst way. Philadelphia (for Werth) might be another fit.

And the follow-up move: with the losses of Davis and Livan Hernandez, the D’Backs would have $15 million coming off the books. That should be enough to allow them to land Fukudome or Bonds…or they could go the cheaper route and gamble on Bradley. That would be my preference.

Between Young, a big-name free agent OF signing, Byrnes, and the guy they get for Davis, there would be no room for Justin Upton… but that’s just fine. In fact, I’d make a point of keeping Upton down in AAA long enough to push his free agency back to 2015. And Byrnes needs to be dealt; that contract extension was a mistake, but it’s not too late to undo it. Surely there’s a team out there that would value him as a cheaper alternative to Hunter/Jones/Rowand.

[Heltonfan]

Needless to say, we’ve had no shortage of Rockies offseason discussion, but I might as well throw the numbers out there for you guys…

Summary Statistics
Rotation: +6
Bullpen: +3
Lineup: +7
Bench: -8
Defense: +20
W-L record: 83-79

Rotation

Cook 3.90
Francis 3.93
Hirsh 4.37
Jimenez 4.78
Buchholz 4.34

Francis might be better than that; his projection is still being dragged down by 2005. Ditto for Ubaldo. If we throw out their 2005 stats (which we shouldn’t, but just for illustration), Francis would project at 3.74, and Jimenez at 4.52. At any rate, this is an above-average NL rotation, and it could be an outstanding one. Of course, replace Buchholz with Morales and things don’t look nearly as good.

Bullpen

Corpas 3.34
Fuentes 3.62
Ramirez 3.51
Speier 4.13
Bautista 4.42
Newman 4.94
Clarke 4.95

Yeah, the pen is thin. We know this. It’s what happens when you lose four guys to free agency. Note the rosy projection for Ramon Ramirez; I still believe.

Lineup

C: Iannetta 1.81 (.255, -1)
1B: Helton 3.49 (.296, 3)
2B: Carroll 0.13 (.216, 8)
SS: Tulowitzki 3.30 (.261, 6)
3B: Atkins 2.58 (.286, -7)
LF: Holliday 5.33 (.316, 6)
CF: Taveras 0.73 (.245, -2)
RF: Hawpe 2.97 (.289, -1)

The projections basically see Helton returning to his 2006 self. I wish I could say I found that unreasonable, but I don’t. Otherwise, there’s not much to say about any of these numbers, aside from the fact that Matt Holliday is really, really good.

Bench

Bellorin .210
Quintanilla .218
Baker .242
Spilborghs .263
Smith .237

If I Were In Charge, I Would: I’ve pretty much laid it all out already…

Give Buchholz a real chance to claim the fifth starter job.
Sign a Jennings/Tomko type for depth.
Sign Tadahito Iguchi.
Sign Ramon Castro to back up Iannetta.
Look to trade Fuentes and Taveras.
Try to bring in two quality relievers. I mentioned Michael Wuertz and Edwar Ramirez in another thread; Juan Rincon, who I suggested for the Red Sox, is another option. In free agency, target Gagne, Wood, and Iwase, and bring Affeldt back if the price is right ($3 million a year or so).
Explore Atkins trade possibilities. Atkins + Fuentes + ? for Phil Hughes is the dream scenario, and is probably quite unrealistic. But the Yankees should still have interest; maybe we could get Ian Kennedy.
Try to sign Aaron Cook to an extension. Something in the $11 million a year range would look pretty good, I think.

And finally, sit down with Scott Boras and figure out what it’s going to take to keep Holliday here long-term. If he follows the standard aging pattern, Holliday will be a 4.9-WAR player in 2010, and with the expected inflation, that will be worth about $30 million a year on the open market. I’m guessing that he’ll make about $20 million over the next two years in arbitration. So if I were Boras, I’d probably be asking for 7/160 or something right now. Of course, any hope of the Rockies signing Holliday is predicated on Boras not being his normal self, so with that in mind…

If possible, I’d prefer not to lock Holliday up past 2012; if we could get him to sign for 5/90, then, it would be an absolute steal. I’d do 5/100, maybe even 5/110 (if the idea of paying him $30 million a year for 2010-2012 scares you, compare it to a longer contract, where we’d be paying him around that much for 2013-2015). He’s going to be horrifically expensive, though; there’s no way around it.

[Heltonfan]

The Mariners may have won 88 games last year, but they did it with smoke and mirrors. They were a 78-win team by the component stats; I projected a 77-win season last spring, so I had them pretty well pegged. And 2008 looks to be more of the same. But they’re about as interesting as a 75-80 win team can possibly be.

Summary Statistics
Rotation: -41
Bullpen: +14
Lineup: -33
Bench: -1
Defense: -9
W-L record: 75-87

Rotation

Hernandez 3.13
Batista 4.44
Washburn 4.47
Baek 5.18
Ramirez 5.21

My projection system has overestimated Felix for two years running, and appears determined to do so once again. I’m a big fan of his – so much so that I’ll elect to watch a Felix start over pretty much any other game taking place at the same time – and, from watching him, I flat-out do not understand how he gets hit as hard as he does. But he’s put up FIPs of 3.40 and 3.62 over the past two years. A 3.13 projection feels optimistic, even considering his youth.

The rest of this rotation… not good. Washburn and Batista are semi-adequate innings-eaters with no upside. Baek had a surprisingly effective run in the big leagues this year, but he benefited from a flukishly low HR rate, and his minor league numbers are thoroughly uninspiring. And as for Horacio Ramirez… where’s that vomiting emoticon when I need it?

Bullpen

Putz 2.75
Sherrill 2.70
Morrow 3.60
O’Flaherty 4.01
Rowland-Smith 4.09
Green 4.16
Davis 4.38

Putz had a season for the ages, fueled by both BABIP and situational luck; he’s a tremendous pitcher, but he’s not otherworldly. George Sherrill, toiling in virtual anonymity, is the best lefty reliever in the game. The rest of these guys are solid enough – all told, this is an excellent bullpen. Looks like the Mariners got the better of the Sean Green-Aaron Taylor blockbuster trade three years ago.

Lineup

C: Johjima 2.65 (.255, 8)
1B: Sexson 0.05 (.261, -9)
2B: Lopez 1.41 (.246, 2)
SS: Betancourt 0.96 (.256, -7)
3B: Beltre 2.51 (.268, 3)
LF: Ibanez 1.48 (.276, -8)
CF: Suzuki 2.68 (.282, -6)
RF: Jones 2.23 (.268, 5)
DH: Vidro 0.45 (.258)

Kenji Johjima, in 2007, had the most valuable defensive season of any catcher in the past 9 years (that is, all the years for which I have data), at 15.4 runs above average. How did he do it? Well, for starters, he didn’t do it by throwing out an unbelievable percentage of basestealers. He threw out 47%, which, while a very good number, was topped by Yadier Molina and Joe Mauer this year. But, while Molina and Mauer each faced only .058 steal attempts per inning, Johjima faced .078… 34% more. And of course, Johjima also played quite a few more games more than Molina or Mauer did, compounding the effect. Finally, Johjima committed only 2 errors and 5 passed balls all year long, both outstanding figures. I don’t expect him to repeat this performance, of course, but these are some remarkable numbers.

The Mariners are getting what they deserve for handing out $50 million to Richie Sexson. Looked terrible at the time, looks even worse now. Sexson was worth 1.42 wins below replacement level this year, so the projection amounts to a substantial rebound.

The projection system hates Ichiro. It’s not hard to see why; he turns 35 next year, and, even though he’s Ichiro and he’s exciting and special (I don’t mean that sarcastically), one would have to be crazy to expect him to repeat his ’07 offensive performance. He’s not putting up another .390 BABIP. As for his defense… ZR says he’s well below average. So does UZR. Both of these systems had him as average at best in RF, so there’s some consistency there in having him rate as a poor CF. I’m not going to argue with the numbers here.

Incidentally, based on the numbers alone, paying $90 million for Ichiro’s age 35-39 seasons is absolutely insane, particularly given that the ’08 Mariners aren’t likely to contend. I’m willing to give them a pass on this one, considering that a ) Ichiro’s value to the franchise goes beyond what he does on the field and b) he’s a freak of nature to whom standard aging patterns may not apply, but there are plenty of reasons to be skeptical.

Bench

Burke .208
Broussard .254
Bloomquist .224
Balentien .251

If I Were in Charge, I Would: Blow it up. There’s no way that this team catches the Angels or A’s in 2008; that much is obvious. And I don’t think they can do it in ’09, either. What’s the 2009 rotation going to look like? Washburn and Batista are going to be problems, not solutions. And there’s no one on the farm who looks to be ready by then (ready in the sense of contributing to a playoff team, not merely in the sense of slightly above replacement level). It’ll be Felix, Brandon Morrow, and three gigantic question marks, and Morrow isn’t exactly a sure thing himself. Worse, on the offensive side, the only guys on the current roster who figure to be good for a .270+ ABR in ’09 are Adam Jones and Ichiro. That’s a problem.

So, open the floodgates. Dealing Batista and Washburn should go without saying. Johjima’s a fine player, but with Jeff Clement on the horizon, he should be trade bait as well. They ought to be able to get something for Ibanez, since he’s signed to a fairly cheap contract. Sexson, Vidro, and Broussard are worthless, and should be given away for whatever minimal return they can bring. Beltre is a real asset, but he’s only signed through 2009, and I’m sure that the Yankees, Phillies, and Red Sox would be very interested… dump him. Putz should go, too; I’d much rather have what he could bring in trade (given his tremendous expected value over the next two seasons) than have him at $8.6 million in 2010. And, last but not least, put Ichiro on the block. If everyone else goes, he has to go as well; there’s no sense in keeping him around when his ’08 and ’09 performance doesn’t do you any good.

How much talent would this fire sale actually net the Mariners? I have no idea. But I do know that it’s the only way to avoid being a perpetual 78-win team. It’s a no-win situation, but, frankly, when you leave Bill Bavasi in charge of your baseball club, that’s what you get.

[Heltonfan]

The Mariners may have won 88 games last year, but they did it with smoke and mirrors. They were a 78-win team by the component stats; I projected a 77-win season last spring, so I had them pretty well pegged. And 2008 looks to be more of the same. But they’re about as interesting as a 75-80 win team can possibly be.

Summary Statistics
Rotation: -41
Bullpen: +14
Lineup: -33
Bench: -1
Defense: -9
W-L record: 75-87

Rotation

Hernandez 3.13
Batista 4.44
Washburn 4.47
Baek 5.18
Ramirez 5.21

My projection system has overestimated Felix for two years running, and appears determined to do so once again. I’m a big fan of his – so much so that I’ll elect to watch a Felix start over pretty much any other game taking place at the same time – and, from watching him, I flat-out do not understand how he gets hit as hard as he does. But he’s put up FIPs of 3.40 and 3.62 over the past two years. A 3.13 projection feels optimistic, even considering his youth.

The rest of this rotation… not good. Washburn and Batista are semi-adequate innings-eaters with no upside. Baek had a surprisingly effective run in the big leagues this year, but he benefited from a flukishly low HR rate, and his minor league numbers are thoroughly uninspiring. And as for Horacio Ramirez… where’s that vomiting emoticon when I need it?

Bullpen

Putz 2.75
Sherrill 2.70
Morrow 3.60
O’Flaherty 4.01
Rowland-Smith 4.09
Green 4.16
Davis 4.38

Putz had a season for the ages, fueled by both BABIP and situational luck; he’s a tremendous pitcher, but he’s not otherworldly. George Sherrill, toiling in virtual anonymity, is the best lefty reliever in the game. The rest of these guys are solid enough – all told, this is an excellent bullpen. Looks like the Mariners got the better of the Sean Green-Aaron Taylor blockbuster trade three years ago.

Lineup

C: Johjima 2.65 (.255, 8)
1B: Sexson 0.05 (.261, -9)
2B: Lopez 1.41 (.246, 2)
SS: Betancourt 0.96 (.256, -7)
3B: Beltre 2.51 (.268, 3)
LF: Ibanez 1.48 (.276, -8)
CF: Suzuki 2.68 (.282, -6)
RF: Jones 2.23 (.268, 5)
DH: Vidro 0.45 (.258)

Kenji Johjima, in 2007, had the most valuable defensive season of any catcher in the past 9 years (that is, all the years for which I have data), at 15.4 runs above average. How did he do it? Well, for starters, he didn’t do it by throwing out an unbelievable percentage of basestealers. He threw out 47%, which, while a very good number, was topped by Yadier Molina and Joe Mauer this year. But, while Molina and Mauer each faced only .058 steal attempts per inning, Johjima faced .078… 34% more. And of course, Johjima also played quite a few more games more than Molina or Mauer did, compounding the effect. Finally, Johjima committed only 2 errors and 5 passed balls all year long, both outstanding figures. I don’t expect him to repeat this performance, of course, but these are some remarkable numbers.

The Mariners are getting what they deserve for handing out $50 million to Richie Sexson. Looked terrible at the time, looks even worse now. Sexson was worth 1.42 wins below replacement level this year, so the projection amounts to a substantial rebound.

The projection system hates Ichiro. It’s not hard to see why; he turns 35 next year, and, even though he’s Ichiro and he’s exciting and special (I don’t mean that sarcastically), one would have to be crazy to expect him to repeat his ’07 offensive performance. He’s not putting up another .390 BABIP. As for his defense… ZR says he’s well below average. So does UZR. Both of these systems had him as average at best in RF, so there’s some consistency there in having him rate as a poor CF. I’m not going to argue with the numbers here.

Incidentally, based on the numbers alone, paying $90 million for Ichiro’s age 35-39 seasons is absolutely insane, particularly given that the ’08 Mariners aren’t likely to contend. I’m willing to give them a pass on this one, considering that a ) Ichiro’s value to the franchise goes beyond what he does on the field and b) he’s a freak of nature to whom standard aging patterns may not apply, but there are plenty of reasons to be skeptical.

Bench

Burke .208
Broussard .254
Bloomquist .224
Balentien .251

If I Were in Charge, I Would: Blow it up. There’s no way that this team catches the Angels or A’s in 2008; that much is obvious. And I don’t think they can do it in ’09, either. What’s the 2009 rotation going to look like? Washburn and Batista are going to be problems, not solutions. And there’s no one on the farm who looks to be ready by then (ready in the sense of contributing to a playoff team, not merely in the sense of slightly above replacement level). It’ll be Felix, Brandon Morrow, and three gigantic question marks, and Morrow isn’t exactly a sure thing himself. Worse, on the offensive side, the only guys on the current roster who figure to be good for a .270+ ABR in ’09 are Adam Jones and Ichiro. That’s a problem.

So, open the floodgates. Dealing Batista and Washburn should go without saying. Johjima’s a fine player, but with Jeff Clement on the horizon, he should be trade bait as well. They ought to be able to get something for Ibanez, since he’s signed to a fairly cheap contract. Sexson, Vidro, and Broussard are worthless, and should be given away for whatever minimal return they can bring. Beltre is a real asset, but he’s only signed through 2009, and I’m sure that the Yankees, Phillies, and Red Sox would be very interested… dump him. Putz should go, too; I’d much rather have what he could bring in trade (given his tremendous expected value over the next two seasons) than have him at $8.6 million in 2010. And, last but not least, put Ichiro on the block. If everyone else goes, he has to go as well; there’s no sense in keeping him around when his ’08 and ’09 performance doesn’t do you any good.

How much talent would this fire sale actually net the Mariners? I have no idea. But I do know that it’s the only way to avoid being a perpetual 78-win team. It’s a no-win situation, but, frankly, when you leave Bill Bavasi in charge of your baseball club, that’s what you get.