Projecting and Analyzing the Free Agents - Team projections/needs added

[Heltonfan]

The Angels overachieved last year; component-wise, they were an 86-win team. But they’re not losing anyone of importance this winter, and they’ve got a terrific core, thanks to their farm system and the occasional brilliant free agent signing (Vlad, Escobar). They’ve got a very good chance to be the best team in baseball.

Summary Statistics
Rotation: +32
Bullpen: +7
Lineup: +37
Bench: +11
Defense: -3
W-L record: 90-72

Rotation

Lackey 3.25
Escobar 3.25
Weaver 3.79
Santana 4.17
Saunders 4.47

Kelvim Escobar went 18-7 with a 3.40 ERA this year, and had the component stats to back it up. He’s a legitimate ace who seems to get no recognition whatsoever.

All of these guys are under contract, very affordably, through at least 2009, so the Angels are in great shape as far as the rotation is concerned.

Bullpen

Rodriguez 2.57
Shields 3.25
Speier 3.59
Oliver 4.25
Bulger 3.54
Moseley 4.44
Thompson 5.10

Bring in a free agent or two to fill it out, and this becomes an outstanding bullpen.
Jason Bulger has been dominating in the minor leagues for years. After striking out 81 guys in 53 innings at AAA Salt Lake this year, he deserves an opportunity. Here’s hoping the Angels will actually give it to him.

Lineup

C: Napoli 2.33 (.267, -1)
1B: Kotchman 3.07 (.284, 6)
2B: Kendrick 3.05 (.280, -3)
SS: Cabrera 1.95 (.249, 0)
3B: Figgins 2.64 (.280, -3)
LF: Willits 1.52 (.264, 1)
CF: Matthews 1.40 (.261, -6)
RF: Guerrero 5.00 (.321, 0)
DH: Rivera 1.08 (.268)

That’s an impressive group. And Matthews is the only one who is overpaid. Looking at this, it’s pretty clear that the Angels’ top priority should be to upgrade their outfield.

Bench

Mathis .230
Morales .254
Izturis .268
Anderson .254

Quality depth.

If I Were in Charge, I Would: The Angels’ needs are blatantly obvious, and this year’s free agent crop is perfectly suited to those needs. I would be absolutely shocked if they don’t land one of A-Rod/Bonds/Fukudome, and they might very well land two of the three (Chone Figgins can move to the outfield if they sign A-Rod).

Beyond that… the rotation is good enough, and cheap enough, that signing one of the top free agent pitchers doesn’t make sense. But they ought to bring in one of the “damaged goods” crowd (Garcia, Colon, Jennings, Lieber, Clement, Kennedy, Tomko) for depth purposes.

They need to fill out the bullpen. Given the money I have them spending elsewhere, they’re going to have to go the (relatively) cheap route here… David Riske, Jorge Julio, and Luis Vizcaino are some names that fit.

Finally, I’d dangle Orlando Cabrera for pitching. Maicer Izturis is every bit as good a player as O-Cab, the Angels have plenty of candidates to take over for Izturis in the utility role, and you have to figure that an average everyday SS with an affordable contract would have some real trade value (Cabrera and Edgar Renteria are very comparable, and look what Renteria brought). The Jays ought to be interested; Tampa Bay, St. Louis, and both Chicago teams are possibilities as well.

If the A’s go ahead and rebuild, as rumored, this team will have no competition whatsoever in the AL West. But even if Billy Beane follows my advice and tries to win in ’08, the Angels will still be the favorites. This is one of the strongest organizations in the game, poor talent evaluation skills (Shea Hillenbrand) notwithstanding. And with Vlad’s contract expiring at the end of the season, 2008 is the year for them to pull out all the stops in pursuit of a title.

[Heltonfan]

The Mets will still be right in the thick of things in the NL East, but they won’t enter the year as clear favorites like they did in ’07. They’ve got a lot of work to do just to win 88 games again.

Summary Statistics
Rotation: -18
Bullpen: +7
Lineup: +48
Bench: 2
Defense: -6
W-L record: 83-79

Rotation

Martinez 3.69
Maine 4.43
Hernandez 4.76
Pelfrey 4.69
Sosa 4.98

Pedro’s probably a little better than that, and he might be a lot better. I think the projection is overreacting to his high HR rate in 2006 (19 HR in 132 IP). But the pessimism shown here regarding the rest of the rotation is warranted. John Maine had a 4.06 FIP this year, 4.77 in ’06… he’s nothing special. El Duque is old, homer-prone, and unlikely to give them more than 150 innings. Jorge Sosa has a mediocre K rate and no track record. Pelfrey has talent, but walked more batters than he struck out this year.

The guy not listed here, who the Mets are counting on for big things, is Oliver Perez. I avoided listing Perez because he has a 5.00 ERC projection, substantially worse than the other guys… in other words, I’m giving the Mets the benefit of the doubt, figuring that if Perez does pitch at a 5.00 ERC level, he won’t get many innings. And as for why he projects so poorly... Perez wasn’t even within spitting distance of replacement level in either ’05 or ’06. And although his ’07 looks pretty good at first glance (3.56 ERA), it’s not nearly as impressive when you consider that he allowed 20 unearned runs. I have him at a 4.21 FIP, 3.88 ERC this year… league-average, basically. Combine one league-average season and two sub-replacement level seasons, and you get a guy who shouldn’t be counted on for anything much.

Bullpen

Wagner 3.22
Heilman 3.34
Feliciano 3.80
Sanchez 3.91
Smith 4.30
Mota 4.71
Schoeneweis 4.76

Not much to discuss here. Wagner-Heilman is a nice 1-2 punch, but they need depth.

Lineup

C: Torrealba 0.36 (.224, 1)
1B: Delgado 1.22 (.268, -2)
2B: Gotay 0.06 (.236, -5)
SS: Reyes 4.76 (.288, 4)
3B: Wright 5.37 (.327, 5)
LF: Alou 1.90 (.286, -10)
CF: Beltran 4.53 (.290, 7)
RF: Milledge 0.91 (.260, -3)

Those are substantial dropoffs for Wright and Beltran. Beltran’s 2005 season is killing his projection; he’d jump from .290 to .308 if we threw it out. Not that we should.

I suspect Met fans will be very disappointed if Milledge meets that projection, but aside from his raw physical ability, I don’t see any reason to think that he’s being sold short here. That .260 would represent the best year of his career so far.

Needless to say, this team is badly in need of a second baseman. And, also needless to say, Yorvit doesn’t solve anything for them.

Bench

Castro .257
Easley .228
Anderson .249
Chavez .233
Gomez .229

Endy Chavez’s glove makes him a useful player, but the Mets could really use a guy on the bench (besides Castro) who can actually hit.

If I Were in Charge, I Would: Be extremely inactive, by Mets standards.

The Mets have glaring weaknesses at C, 2B, and in the rotation, and I’m sure they’d like to dump Delgado and find a 1B upgrade if possible. However, they don’t really have many tradeable assets (aside from guys like Wright and Reyes, who they’d never part with in a million years). They simply don’t have the pieces to make a deal for Santana or Bedard. And, unless they deal Milledge (in which case they’d have a hole in the outfield to address as well), they’re not getting a good #2 starter. Although, if the A’s do elect to rebuild, that old Milledge/Haren idea is worth revisiting.

Anyway, with A-Rod and Posada re-signing in the Bronx, the only guys on the free agent market who the Mets should be interested in are Iguchi/Castillo. They’ve been linked with Lohse/Silva, but there’s no sense in signing one of those guys when they could just promote Kevin Mulvey and get 90% of the production that they’d get out of the FA signing.

The upshot of all this is that it’s going to be awfully hard for the Mets to climb into the 88-89 projected win range. They’ve certainly got a shot at winning that many games, but if it happens, it will be because guys like Pedro, Milledge, Perez, and Delgado beat their projections, not because of anything that Omar Minaya does this winter.

[Heltonfan]

Brian Sabean has been doing his best to run this franchise into the ground for the past five years or so. And now, with Bonds gone, his work is done: the last sliver of hope for the Giants has finally disappeared.

Summary Statistics
Rotation: +31
Bullpen: -1
Lineup: -130
Bench: -1
Defense: +29
W-L record: 73-89

No, that -130 isn’t a typo. That’s more than 70 runs worse than any other lineup in the game.

Rotation

Cain 3.44
Zito 4.24
Lincecum 3.10
Lowry 4.40
Misch 5.07

I projected Zito at 4.12 last year; he proceeded to put up a 4.53 FIP and a 3.89 ERC. I’d call that a pretty darn good projection. He’s as average as they come, and there’s no reason not to expect more of the same. Worst contract in the game right now.

Cain and Lincecum combine for 42% of the team’s projected WAR. That’s unbelievable.

Bullpen

Wilson 3.74
Correia 3.66
Chulk 3.97
Atchison 3.94
Taschner 3.92
Hennessey 4.33
Messenger 4.39

This is actually not such a bad group, particularly considering that none of these guys are the least bit expensive. But it’s also a group lacking any sort of elite talent.

Lineup

C: Molina 0.92 (.240, -1)
1B: Niekro 0.10 (.244, 2)
2B: Durham -0.52 (.228, -6)
SS: Vizquel 0.58 (.209, 12)
3B: Frandsen 1.01 (.242, 5)
LF: Davis 1.09 (.238, 12)
CF: Roberts 0.76 (.249, -5)
RF: Winn 0.81 (.248, 3)

Amazing, isn’t it? Not a single hitter over the .250 ABR mark. And Rajai Davis, acquired in the Matt Morris trade, is the best position player on the roster. This looks like an expansion team lineup, and not a very good one at that.

Bench

Alfonzo .224
Aurilia .228
Velez .232
Lewis .246
Schierholtz .252

Well, at least there isn’t much of a dropoff from the starters to the bench players…

If I Were in Charge, I Would: Probably kill myself.

But, otherwise, the plan is simple: sign every free agent they can find who will accept a contract paying $5 million per win or less. In other words, collect assets. They can’t accomplish anything via trade, because the only players in the entire organization who have any value at all are Lincecum and Cain, and those two are exactly the sorts of players that the Giants need more of. So the only thing they can do is bring in a bunch of veteran stopgaps on affordable contracts and hope that they play well enough to be traded for prospects in June or July. There’s absolutely no downside to this approach; the Giants are in desperate need of a talent infusion, and there’s only one way to get it right now.

Of course, no matter how well they play their cards this winter, they have absolutely no chance of accomplishing anything in 2008. Or 2009. Or probably 2010 (keep in mind how good the rest of the division is). I’ve never before seen a team with so little reason for optimism.

[Heltonfan]

The Cardinals won only 78 games this year, and they’re not getting any younger. It’s going to be very tough for them to climb into contention in 2008.

Summary Statistics
Rotation: -43
Bullpen: -22
Lineup: -39
Bench: -8
Defense: +19
W-L record: 71-91

Rotation

Wainwright 4.19
Looper 4.83
Reyes 4.71
Pineiro 4.84
Wellemeyer 5.07

Wainwright had a great second half; I think he’s a good bet to beat that projection (I’d guess 3.80 or so). But he’s the only guy here who Cards fans can really get excited about. $13 million for two years of Joel Pineiro was an overpay even in this market.

Anthony Reyes was lousy across the board this year: didn’t strike many people out, didn’t throw enough strikes, and got hit hard. He’s firmly established himself as a failed prospect.

If you're looking for a simple reason why this rotation projects so poorly, here it is: four of these guys have spent significant time as relievers in recent years. Looper, Pineiro, and Wellemeyer's relief performances suggest that they should be horrible starters.

Bullpen

Flores 3.80
Springer 4.06
Isringhausen 4.50
Franklin 4.61
Johnson 4.63
Falkenborg 4.74
Jimenez 4.88

Wow, do the projections ever hate this bullpen. Springer had a 2.73 FIP this year. Isringhausen had a 3.57 FIP, 2.36 ERC – and he has a long history of extremely low BABIPs, so that’s no fluke. Ryan Franklin had a 3.80 FIP. But they’re all projected to crash and burn in ’08, because they’re old and have very mixed track records (Izzy’s rotten 2006 season is absolutely killing his projection – he’d be almost a full run lower if we threw it out).

So there’s certainly hope for the Cards’ bullpen to obliterate their projections. But even if we give Izzy, Springer, and Franklin the benefit of the doubt, the pen is awfully thin. Plenty of work to be done here.

Lineup

C: Molina 1.26 (.227, 8)
1B: Pujols 6.43 (.345, 2)
2B: Kennedy -0.43 (.222, -1)
SS: Ryan -0.13 (.227, -5)
3B: Rolen 2.17 (.251, 10)
LF: Duncan 1.68 (.274, -4)
CF: Edmonds 1.28 (.248, 1)
RF: Ankiel 0.62 (.249, 1)

Wow, is that ever a terrible middle infield. Kennedy isn’t nearly as bad as his ’07 numbers – he had just a .239 BABIP this year – but it’s still awfully tough to see him as anything more than replacement level. Brendan Ryan put together 200 solid plate appearances in the big leagues, but his .272/.325/.341 line in AAA tells us that he’s a marginal prospect, nothing more.

Ankiel is an incredible story, HGH or no HGH. That projection is being dragged down by his poor 2005 numbers; I think he’s got a fair chance to be a league-average hitter.

Bench

Bennett .187
Miles .219
Spiezio .250
Schumaker .236
Ludwick .248

If I Were in Charge, I Would: Make a few additions, but nothing major. The Cardinals’ situation is reminiscent of San Francisco’s, albeit not nearly as desperate; they’re in bad shape for 2008, and they can’t really rebuild because they don’t have any tradeable assets, save two guys (Pujols and Wainwright) who they should be building around rather than getting rid of.

So, with that in mind, they simply have to hope that Wainwright sustains his second-half breakout, Edmonds and Rolen have bounceback seasons, and their veteran relievers perform closer to their ’07 level than to their projected level. If all that happens, this roster would win 79 games or so. Add some affordable rotation depth (read: no multi-year contracts)… bring back Percival if he wants to play another year… bring in an Elmer Dessens type… find an undervalued shortstop in trade (I’d go after Maicer Izturis or Jeff Keppinger)… and maybe we’re looking at 83-84 wins. That’s the best I can do. There’s just not a whole lot to work with here.

[Heltonfan]

As magical as the last week of the season was for the boys in purple, that’s how miserable it was for the Padres. Cameron and Bradley injured… Hoffman choking… Peavy not coming through in the play-off game… ugly stuff, all around. But this team still managed to win 89 games with a payroll of only $58 million and minimal contribution from homegrown players (well, aside from the guy who won the Cy Young award, I guess), which is a real testament to Kevin Towers’ abilities. Towers is the best GM in baseball, and he’ll have the Padres at or near the top of the division again in 2008.

Summary Statistics
Rotation: +24
Bullpen: +11
Lineup: +14
Bench: +14
Defense: -7
W-L record: 86-76

Rotation

Peavy 3.15
Young 3.70
Maddux 4.17
Germano 4.62
Ledezma 5.06

Chris Young had a 2.68 ERC this year, but he did it thanks to a) a .241 BABIP and b) allowing only 10 HR in 173 IP, despite being a fairly extreme flyball pitcher. Amazingly, that .241 BABIP is actually higher than it was in ’06, so it’s safe to say that he’s got a real ability in this regard, but nevertheless, I think the projected regression is appropriate.

Maddux is getting hit by the aging factors here. He had a 3.92 ERC this year, and I don’t see why he can’t do that again in 2008.

Obviously, the back of the rotation is a problem.

Bullpen

Hoffman 3.41
Bell 3.05
Meredith 3.75
Thatcher 3.61
Hampson 4.22
Hensley 4.53
Cameron 4.71

Hoffman’s ERCs have been in the 2.60-3.00 range in each of the past three years, so, as with Maddux, the projection system just hates the fact that he’s 40 years old. That being said, even the great ones lose it at some point.

Look at that setup/middle relief trio below Hoffman. Heath Bell? Acquired for Ben Johnson. Cla Meredith? Acquired for Doug Mirabelli. Joe Thatcher? Acquired for Scott Linebrink. That’s three above-average, dirt-cheap relievers that Towers got in exchange for table scraps… and that’s only the tip of the iceberg. He also got Royce Ring in the Bell trade; Ring was later flipped for Wilfredo Ledezma, who might end up in the ’08 starting rotation. Meredith, of course, was acquired along with Josh Bard, who has become a very solid starting catcher. Thatcher was acquired along with two pitching prospects, one of whom, Will Inman, is only 20 years old and already projects close to replacement level.

Anyway, the Padres’ bullpen as currently constructed is very much like their rotation; excellent at the top, but not very deep. You can bet that Towers won’t let it remain that way.

Lineup

C: Bard 2.00 (.278, -10)
1B: Gonzalez 2.97 (.293, 0)
2B: Stansberry 1.02 (.242, 1)
SS: Greene 2.64 (.253, 5)
3B: Kouzmanoff 2.85 (.283, -3)
LF: Hairston 1.95 (.267, 3)
CF: Sledge 1.09 (.258, -7)
RF: Giles 1.17 (.263, -2)

Scott Hairston is another example of Towers’ bargain-hunting acumen. Acquired for a random AAA reliever, Hairston then proceeded to slug .644 in 87 at-bats for the Padres. He’s not anywhere near that good, of course, but he should be at least a league-average hitter. And his ZRs, albeit in limited playing time, are quite good.

Adrian Gonzalez has turned into a fine player indeed. I suspect that, if anything, that projection is conservative because it sees him as merely average defensively. And of course, I can’t talk about Gonzalez without mentioning the trade that brought him to San Diego: Gonzalez, Chris Young, and Terrmel Sledge for Adam Eaton and Akinori Otsuka. Unbelievable. The single best move Towers has ever made.

Projections hate Brian Giles. And not without reason. Todd Helton gets criticized for not having the kind of power numbers you want from someone playing an offense-heavy position, but he makes up for the unimpressive power numbers by hitting .320. Giles doesn’t do that; he’s basically Helton minus a few walks, a few doubles, and 35 points of batting average. That’s not an acceptable corner outfielder, particularly since his once-excellent range has deteriorated substantially.

The Padres’ 2B situation is pretty interesting. Craig Stansberry, the guy I have listed here, has a grand total of 7 big-league at-bats, and has never been considered any kind of top prospect… but he hit .273/.368/.446 in AAA this year, and the rest of his minor league career is very much in line with those numbers. So I don’t see much reason to doubt the projection. Of course, Stansberry isn’t the only in-house option. Matt Antonelli, the Padres’ first-round pick back in 2006, hit .294/.392/.476 in two months at AA Mobile and, due to his youth, actually projects a hair better than Stansberry for 2008, and certainly has the brighter long-term future.

Bench

Morton .242
Antonelli .247
Ensberg .266
Headley .263
Lane .247

Morgan Ensberg was acquired on waivers from the Astros, after Tim Purpura inexplicably decided that Ty Wigginton was the answer to Houston’s problems at the hot corner. He’s almost sure to be either non-tendered or traded, given the presence of Kouzmanoff or Chase Headley. The right move, of course, is to trade him; Ensberg is an average-ish regular making around $5 million, and that has plenty of value.

If I Were in Charge, I Would:

Find a fourth starter. I’d try to avoid the free agent market here. Maybe the A’s have soured on Gaudin or DiNardo. Maybe you can get Mark Hendrickson for Brian Giles (we know how Ned Colletti loves his veterans…). Capuano and Dave Bush are worth looking into as well. If all else fails, find an injured pitcher willing to take a one-year deal (Colon, Jennings, Lieber), or just bring back Brett Tomko.

Shore up the outfield. As alluded to above, I’d be trying to dump Giles if at all possible, so the Padres have to find solutions for both CF and RF. This is where Ensberg comes in. The Phillies have absolutely nothing at 3B… Ensberg for Jayson Werth? The Brewers need to move Braun to LF… Ensberg for Gabe Gross? If nothing else, Ensberg should be able to get them someone who can platoon with Sledge, thus taking care of one of the two outfield holes.

As for the other outfield hole, the Padres have some money to spend, and this is where they ought to spend it. Fukudome would be a great fit. Torii Hunter will probably be overpaid by someone, but the Padres ought to at least be in on the bidding. And there’s no reason why they shouldn’t bring Milton Bradley back.

[Heltonfan]

Dayton Moore’s rebuilding project is moving rather slowly. Gil Meche and Brian Bannister drastically exceeded expectations, but the offense was terrible, thanks to disappointing years from Gordon, Teahen, and DeJesus (and the decision to give Tony Pena the everyday job at SS). All told, the Royals ended up right where I had them projected to. 2008 looks like it will be more of the same; a slight improvement over ’07, but nowhere near enough to get people excited.

Summary Statistics
Rotation: -33
Bullpen: +4
Lineup: -74
Bench: -9
Defense: +3
W-L record: 71-91

Rotation

Meche 3.98
Bannister 4.09
Greinke 4.15
De La Rosa 4.72
Davies 5.02

As you can see, the projection system is not a believer in Meche. Not that that’s any kind of surprise, of course. Bannister had a 4.07 FIP this year, so the projections basically see him repeating his ’07, but without the BABIP luck.

Bullpen

Soria 3.05
Peralta 3.56
Gobble 3.66
Hudson 3.80
Braun 3.85
Bale 4.11
Nunez 4.29

Not bad at all. That’s a substantial regression for Soria, and it still makes him one of the top 15 relievers in MLB; quite a Rule 5 find, to say the least.

Lineup

C: Buck 0.98 (.235, 1)
1B: Gload 0.99 (.266, -3)
2B: German 1.23 (.256, -5)
SS: Pena -0.68 (.208, 2)
3B: Gordon 2.40 (.271, -1)
LF: Brown 1.16 (.246, 6)
CF: DeJesus 2.11 (.257, 1)
RF: Teahen 2.26 (.277, -2)
DH: Butler 1.65 (.276)

Blech. That’s just a terrible offense. And those projections, as underwhelming as they are, would represent bounce-back seasons for Gordon, Brown, DeJesus, and Teahen.

Bench

Phillips .180
Shealy .244
Grudzielanek .228
Gathright .248

Remember when people thought Ryan Shealy was good? Fun times.

If I Were in Charge, I Would: Sell. As Nate Silver said last month: “I don’t think there’s quite enough long-term talent here to make the Royals a legitimate contender in 2009 through 2011. Alex Gordon and Luke Hochevar had disappointing seasons, and a team centered around those two plus Mark Teahen, Billy Butler, Brian Bannister, David DeJesus, Gil Meche, and Joakim Soria is probably going to peak at about 78 wins.”

Nate's exactly right. The Royals have a long, long way to climb in order to threaten Cleveland, Detroit, and Minnesota. So the solution is to trade everyone who has more value now than they will two years from now. That means Meche, Bannister, Gobble, and Grudzielanek (DeJesus and Teahen as well, but I'd put those two on the Dontrelle plan, holding onto them for the time being in the hope that they start 2008 well and recover some of their trade value). This is a pretty obvious strategy.

[Heltonfan]

Terry Ryan is gone, and judging from the fact that his replacement (Bill Smith. Dullest GM name ever?) seems to think that Craig Monroe has some value, there’s plenty of reason for Twins fans to be concerned. But there’s also plenty of reason to think that, if they play their cards right, the Twins could win 90 games a year for the foreseeable future.

Summary Statistics
Rotation: +10
Bullpen: +13
Lineup: -56
Bench: -5
Defense: +17
W-L record: 80-82

Rotation

Santana 3.09
Slowey 3.90
Baker 4.01
Garza 4.43
Bonser 4.57

Johan had a very rough year by his standards. He’s a wonderful pitcher, of course, but the long ball has always been his Achilles heel, and this year, he actually led the AL in home runs allowed. He no longer projects as the best left-hander in the division, although that says just as much about C.C. Sabathia’s ascension as it does about Johan’s fall.

I’m a believer in Matt Garza. He had a 3.98 FIP this year, and I’m guessing that his ’08 performance will end up closer to that number than to his projection.

Of course, there’s an elephant in the room here. Francisco Liriano, if healthy, is the best pitcher on the planet, basically Johan without the HR problem. You can add one win to the Twins’ 2008 record for every 60 innings you think they’ll get out of Liriano.

Bullpen

Nathan 2.37
Rincon 3.66
Guerrier 3.78
Neshek 3.83
Crain 3.82
Reyes 3.97
Perkins 4.59

Neshek’s probably better than that; ignore his 2005 season (in AA), and his projection drops half a run.

Another year, another outstanding Twins bullpen. Nothing new here.

Lineup

C: Mauer 5.90 (.318, 8)
1B: Morneau 3.37 (.297, 1)
2B: Casilla -0.47 (.231, -5)
SS: Bartlett 2.65 (.251, 7)
3B: Punto 0.02 (.223, 5)
LF: Kubel 1.63 (.270, -4)
CF: Tyner 0.09 (.226, 1)
RF: Cuddyer 2.84 (.281, 1)
DH: Monroe -0.66 (.240)

There are three things to notice about this lineup.

First, Joe Mauer is really, really good. The projections expect him to regain some of the power he showed during his 2006 should-have-been-MVP season, and he’s a wonderful defensive catcher. Incidentally, he’ll be making $12.5 million in 2010, which would otherwise have been his first year of free agency; factoring in inflation, and assuming that Mauer’s abilities remain stable over the next two years (as they should, given his age), I figure he’d be in line to make $36 million as a free agent. Hell of a contract, huh? And one more fun Mauer fact: with standard inflation and aging, his value as a free agent will actually hit the $50 million mark in 2016.

Second, despite Mauer’s best efforts, the Twins’ offense stinks.

Finally, and most importantly, while this is a clearly subpar group of hitters, it’s also the most easily improved group that I’ve ever seen. I’ve mentioned how some teams (Arizona, Boston, Pittsburgh) have a bunch of players clustered around league average, which makes it hard to find significant upgrades? The Twins are the complete opposite of that. Look at that lineup again: they’re at or below replacement level at four positions. Amazing, isn’t it? Replace Casilla, Punto, Tyner, and Monroe with league-average players, and the Twins are an 89-win team.

Bench

Redmond .240
Jones .234
Tolbert .233
Buscher .229

Nope, nobody here who can hit either.

If I Were in Charge, I Would: Have my cake and eat it too. Everything I’ve read about the Twins has presented their offseason strategy as an either/or proposition: either try to make a run in 2008, or deal Santana and Nathan. But, because of the way their talent is distributed, I don’t see why they can’t do both.

Let’s say that they can get Kemp, LaRoche, and, I don’t know, Hong-Chih Kuo for Santana. I think this is reasonable; it might even be a conservative estimate of Johan’s trade value (and of Ned Colletti’s stupidity). Stick Liriano in the rotation, Kuo in the bullpen (I have him projected at 3.22 as a reliever; he’s a significant asset), Kemp in CF, and LaRoche at 3B. All of a sudden, this is a projected 85-win team. Basically, all we’re doing here is swapping Johan for three players who, combined, match Johan’s 2008 value, and replacing Johan in the rotation with Liriano.

Now, to address the Nathan situation. He’s an incredibly marketable asset, a truly elite closer (a notch above Rivera, even) making only $6 million, guaranteed to bring a draft pick or two after the season. Who’s looking for a closer? Looks to me like Milwaukee, Cincinnati, and Atlanta. Maybe Tampa Bay.

Let’s focus on Cincinnati. The Reds’ bullpen, as discussed in their team spotlight earlier, is an absolute disaster. Nathan would be a three-win upgrade for them – and given what Wayne Krivsky has paid for relief help in the past, I suspect that he would value Nathan at least as highly as I do. Plus, Krivsky has a good relationship with the Twins. And he has a couple assets to trade that would fit wonderfully in Minnesota. The first is Jeff Keppinger. I’ve mentioned Keppinger a few times already; he put up a .279 ABR last year, projects at .264, and is a fine defensive middle infielder. He ought to be starting in Cincy, of course, but I see no reason to believe that Krivsky understands that… in the Reds’ eyes, Keppinger is probably no more than a bench player. Which makes him entirely obtainable, but at the same time a laughably small return for a player of Nathan’s stature. Thus bringing me to the other guy that the Twins should be interested in: Adam Dunn.

Keppinger and Dunn for Nathan, from the Reds’ standpoint, looks pretty good. Dunn is worth two wins above Norris Hopper; Nathan, as I said above, would be a three-win upgrade in the bullpen. Figure that the loss of Keppinger costs them half a win, and all told, they’re improving themselves by half a win while saving $7 million (the difference in salaries between Dunn and Nathan). Hard not to like that. Again, this is all based on the assumption that the Reds have no clue how valuable Keppinger really is, but I think that assumption is an entirely reasonable one.

Keppinger and Dunn for Nathan, from the Twins’ standpoint, is an absolute slam-dunk. They lose 2.5 wins in the bullpen, but gain 5.5-6 wins offensively (Dunn at DH, Keppinger at 2B)… so that’s a 3-win upgrade at a cost of $7 million. The draft picks are a wash, since both Nathan and Dunn are Type-A guys. And, as if the 3-win upgrade wasn’t justification enough, the $7 million cost is more than offset by the value of having Keppinger under club control for several more years.

What we’ve done here is swapped three players, each of which has more value to their new team than to their old team. Dunn is more valuable to the Twins because he can DH, and because the Twins have no other remotely viable candidates to fill that role. Nathan is more valuable to the Reds because the Twins have some other solid relievers, whereas the Reds have no one. And Keppinger is more valuable to the Twins because the Reds have Alex Gonzalez and Brandon Phillips (and because Krivsky isn’t smart enough to figure out that Gonzalez, not Keppinger, is the guy to trade).

So now we’ve filled all four of the lineup holes (Kemp, LaRoche, Keppinger, Dunn), and we have an 88-89 win team. We’ve cut the payroll by $6 million (Johan’s and Dunn’s salaries cancel each other out, leaving Nathan as the difference-maker), and in addition to that, we ought to have some money to spend with Torii Hunter and Carlos Silva coming off the books. Looks to me like there’s enough to grab a starting pitcher (just for depth, a Tomko type), a reliever (Gagne would be a great fit here… he could be promised the closer’s job going into the season, but if he tanks, the Twins have options), and an outfielder. That outfielder could be Bobby Kielty, to platoon with Kubel. Or it could be Milton Bradley, with the idea that Kubel and Kemp would share one outfield spot when Bradley is healthy. Put it all together, and we’re looking at 91 wins or so, neck and neck with the Tribe at the top of the AL Central. Now, obviously, the odds of the Twins being able to pull off precisely these two trades are pretty slim, but the point is simply that they have a lot to gain here.

There’s a fascinating conclusion to be drawn from all this: not only is trading Santana and Nathan a no-brainer for the long-term, it’s also the only way (besides luck, of course) for this team to make the playoffs in 2008. Because if they keep those two, even with a healthy Liriano, this will be no more than an 83-win team. They’ve still got the four gaping holes in the lineup, of course, but how are they going to fill them? Through free agency? It’s not possible. There isn’t a single worthwhile free agent 3B. All of the good free agent outfielders, with the possible exception of Bradley, are going to be well out of the Twins’ price range (keep in mind that holding onto Santana and Nathan gives them less money to play with than they’d have under my scenario). Which leaves 2B. Let’s be kind and assume that they’re able to land Iguchi… we’re up to 85 wins now, nowhere near the level that they could reach with a couple good trades. I think the point is clear.

Well, this turned out to be quite a bit longer than I had anticipated. I hope it was interesting.

[Heltonfan]

The Braves are loaded. By the component stats, they were an 87-win team this year; they’re losing very little from that team, and they’ll have Teixeira for a full season, making them the clear favorites in the NL East.

Summary Statistics
Rotation: +6
Bullpen: 0
Lineup: +82
Bench: +4
Defense: +2
W-L record: 89-73

Rotation

Smoltz 3.61
Hudson 4.07
James 4.64
Glavine 4.70
Hampton 4.41

Smoltz and Hudson had ERCs of 3.30 and 3.15 this year, respectively. Why does the projection system hate them so? In Smoltz’s case, it’s age, nothing more. His projection might be the single most bothersome to me in my entire spreadsheet. He hasn’t dropped off at all in the last few years; why start now? There certainly aren’t any statistical red flags. Hudson’s forecasted blahness is the result of him being in his 30s and having been average-ish in 2005 and 2006; I have a lot more confidence in his projection than I do in Smoltz’s. Another thing to consider with Hudson is that he somehow managed to allow only 10 HR in 224 IP this year. Even for a groundball pitcher (and Hudson is no Cook or Wang), that’s completely unsustainable.

$8 million is a lot to pay for a guy who’s closer to replacement level than he is to league average. But in Glavine’s case, I think it’s tolerable. For one thing, the Braves really do need rotation depth, and signing Glavine is a lot better than giving someone a big multi-year deal. For another thing, if there is such a thing as a clutch pitcher, Glavine is it. He’s been outperforming his ERCs throughout his career; recently, by a margin of 5 runs a year or so. So maybe 4.50 is a more reasonable expectation than 4.70. It’s not an argument I would make, but the point is simply that there is some upside here.

The Braves also have Jair Jurrjens, acquired in the Renteria deal, who projects at 4.80, and Buddy Carlyle, who projects at 4.81. So they’ve got enough options that they should be able to avoid giving too many starts to guys who don’t belong in the major leagues. The 2007 Braves were undone by an absolutely horrendous back of the rotation; they gave 44 starts to Kyle Davies, Jo-Jo Reyes, Lance Cormier, Mark Redman, and Anthony Lerew, who combined for 3.2 wins below replacement level.

Bullpen

Soriano 3.67
Devine 3.96
Yates 4.12
Ascanio 4.30
Ring 4.32
Moylan 4.56
Gonzalez 2.95

A decent group. I’ve always liked Rafael Soriano, and I think the projection there is taking his sky-high HR rate (12 in 72 innings) too seriously. I’d guess that he’ll end up around 3.30 or so.

Peter Moylan is one of the best stories in baseball, having been discovered during the World Baseball Classic (pitching for Australia). He had a wonderful 2007 season, with a 1.80 ERA in 90 innings. The projections don’t like him, though, because he was terrible in AAA in 2006, and his success this year was heavily BABIP-driven; his K/BB numbers are nothing special. Given Moylan’s unorthodox delivery, I’m inclined to say that the low BABIP isn’t entirely luck; on the other hand, he had a very high BABIP in Triple-A, so who knows? All told, as much as I’d love to see him continue to succeed, I can’t argue with the projection. He is the ultimate illustration of how volatile and unpredictable a reliever’s performance really is.

Mike Gonzalez is returning from Tommy John surgery; from what I’ve read, he’ll probably be back in June. He’s a fantastic pitcher.

Lineup

C: McCann 3.34 (.290, -3)
1B: Teixeira 4.50 (.316, 1)
2B: Johnson 2.99 (.282, -4)
SS: Escobar 1.77 (.252, -2)
3B: Jones 5.82 (.321, 1)
LF: Diaz 3.08 (.282, 3)
CF: Harris 0.84 (.242, -2)
RF: Francoeur 1.71 (.263, 1)

One word: wow. That is one heck of a lineup. The projections think Brian McCann is in line for a big bounceback season; I don’t disagree. Chipper Jones has become one of the most underrated players around; he actually led the league in ABR this year.

Matt Diaz is an interesting case study. His BABIP:
2005 (Omaha): .418
2006 (Atlanta) .373
2007 (Atlanta): .385
I talk a lot about hitters’ BABIP as something heavily luck-influenced. Which it is. But when you hang out in the high .300s for three years in a row… Diaz can flat-out hit. I’ve always thought it was interesting that the Braves were the team to finally give him an extended opportunity; he had a bit of a AAAA player reputation, and guys like that usually have more luck with stat-friendly organizations than they do with scouting-friendly organizations like Atlanta.

You’ll notice that I haven’t disparaged the Braves’ traditionalist approach to player evaluation. That’s because there are two schools of “traditional” baseball thought. One is actually a statistical approach, but a hopelessly primitive one. This is the school of thought that thinks Carlos Lee is a great player because he drives in 100 runs a year, or that Barry Zito pitched well in 2006 because he went 16-10 with a 3.83 ERA. This approach is about as valid as the geocentric theory of the universe, and is guaranteed to blow up in the face of any team that employs it. The other school of thought is traditionalism in its pure form: evaluating players by watching them play. In other words, scouting. Which is a perfectly legitimate method. It’s riskier than the sabermetric approach, because it’s a heck of a lot harder to be a good scout than it is to be a good sabermetrician (everything I know about player evaluation, I could teach in less than a week; scouting is much, much more complicated), but if done well, there’s no reason why it can’t be very successful. This, of course, is what the Braves have been doing for about a decade and a half. And all I can say about it is, more power to them.

Bench

Pena .241
Thorman .245
Prado .235
Lillibridge .240
Jones .250

Solid group. Lillibridge might end up challenging Yunel Escobar for playing time at SS.

If I Were in Charge, I Would: Make a couple signings, and otherwise sit on my hands.

CF needs to be addressed: should be either Cameron or Corey Patterson (not Rowand, for reasons discussed ad nauseum already). And then sign a reliever or two. They could really use a quality third starter, too, but finding someone who fits that description is much easier said than done.

[Heltonfan]

The Indians are one of the best organizations in the game. Mark Shapiro’s trading record is second to none, and with the exception of the apparent fixation on a “proven closer” (how else do you explain Wickman and Borowski?), the Indians have shown themselves to be pretty statistically savvy. They’re easily the favorites in the AL Central, and the future, even assuming that C.C. Sabathia leaves next winter, is quite bright.

Summary Statistics
Rotation: +18
Bullpen: -3
Lineup: +42
Bench: +11
Defense: +5
W-L record: 89-73

Rotation

Sabathia 3.08
Carmona 3.81
Westbrook 3.85
Lee 4.35
Byrd 4.54

Carmona was a Cy Young candidate this year. Westbrook went 6-9 with a 4.32 ERA. And yet they project to be basically the same pitcher. There are several reasons for this:
1)Carmona was incredibly lucky this year, both in terms of BABIP and situational luck. His ERA should have been a run higher than it actually was.
2)Westbrook has a track record. Carmona doesn’t.
3)Component-wise, they are basically the same pitcher. Carmona struck out 15% of the batters he faced, and walked 8%. Westbrook struck out 14% and walked 9%. And both are extreme groundballers.
The net effect of all this is that Carmona, in all likelihood, is one of the more overrated pitchers around right now.

The Indians also have plenty of depth behind the front five, with youngsters Jeremy Sowers (4.54), Aaron Laffey (4.65), and Adam Miller (4.58). I absolutely loathe Sowers as a pitcher, though; the guy has AA stuff, and doesn’t locate it particularly well. It’s pathetic. It amazes me that he gets anyone out at all. He’s a distant #8 on this depth chart, as far as I’m concerned.

Bullpen

Borowski 4.16
Betancourt 2.64
Perez 3.85
Fultz 3.82
Mastny 3.62
Mujica 4.08
Lewis 3.28

That’s a pretty good bullpen. It would be a great one if Borowski and Betancourt switched roles.

Lineup

C: Martinez 4.21 (.301, 0)
1B: Garko 1.00 (.266, -3)
2B: Cabrera 1.31 (.244, 4)
SS: Peralta 3.32 (.281, -4)
3B: Marte 1.38 (.254, -1)
LF: Francisco 1.27 (.260, -1)
CF: Sizemore 5.20 (.309, 0)
RF: Gutierrez 2.18 (.258, 8)
DH: Hafner 4.29 (.319)

Hafner’s ABR dropped 79 points from 2006 to 2007. He’s a great rebound candidate.

This is an easy group of players to get a handle on. Great talent up the middle, mediocre on the corners.

Bench

Shoppach .254
Barfield .244
Blake .256
Dellucci .257

Kelly Shoppach is one of the top 10 catchers in baseball right now. Having him as a backup is quite a luxury.

If I Were In Charge, I Would: The Indians are good enough that they don’t have to do much on the free agent market. They could use a quality corner outfielder, but with Milton Bradley out of the picture (due to his history with Wedge), the only free agent who fits that description is Fukudome. So, target Fukudome… but if they don’t get him, it’s no tragedy.

Now, here’s where things get interesting. The Johan Santana situation has gotten tons of media attention, and rightfully so. But what seems to have gone largely ignored is the fact that the Indians, with Sabathia, have the same issue to address; if anything, C.C. should have a little more trade value than Johan, because he’s a bit younger and is making $3 million less next year.

There are all kinds of options here. But the crucial difference between the Indians and Twins is that the Indians can easily justify holding onto their ace. So if they don’t find a deal to their liking, it’s no great loss. But they absolutely should explore things a little. If they can get a package that includes someone who could quite competently fill Sabathia’s rotation spot (Billingsley, Hughes), they should jump at it.

I’d also make a run at Miguel Cabrera, using Carmona as bait. None of the other teams going after Cabrera are going to offer up a guy with a Cy Young candidate season on his resume. But of course, the Indians can afford to lose Carmona (partly because he’s not the ace people might think he is, and partly because of their depth).

[Heltonfan]

The White Sox, due to a combination of a terrible farm system, some excessive contracts, and a lack of star power, are well on their way to becoming Orioles West. After a pathetic 2007 season (which any idiot could have seen coming, of course), this team is trapped; they have a very long way to go to catch the Indians, but they can’t very well rebuild, because with Thome, Konerko, Dye, Buehrle, Contreras, and the aforementioned weak farm system, their chances in the future won’t be any better.

Summary Statistics
Rotation: -30
Bullpen: -7
Lineup: -47
Bench: -11
Defense: -2
W-L record: 72-90

Rotation

Vazquez 3.67
Buehrle 3.84
Contreras 4.22
Danks 5.02
Floyd 5.15

Vazquez has turned out better than expected, and, to give credit where credit is due, Kenny Williams did manage to sign him to a very favorable extension ($11.5 million a year through 2010). But still… would you rather have Vazquez at $11.5 million, or Chris Young at the league minimum? To me, that’s a no-brainer. Deals like this, sacrificing what little young talent they had, are a big part of what has locked this team into the no-win situation they’re currently faced with.

Danks and Floyd may be young, but they’re terrible pitchers. The White Sox have a guy named Jack Egbert, who spent this year in AA, who projects better (4.82) than Danks does, but he’s not highly thought of by the scouts, and is a real longshot to win a rotation spot.

Bullpen

Jenks 2.73
MacDougal 3.71
Thornton 4.12
Linebrink 4.55
Logan 4.00
Masset 4.29
Wassermann 4.62

One of the things that gave me a lot of pleasure last offseason was watching KW put together his bullpen. We heard all this talk about collecting “live arms”, how Andy Sisco was such a steal, how the McCarthy/Danks trade wouldn’t have been made if the Rangers hadn’t been willing to include Nick Masset in the deal… problem being, all of these guys suck.

The “throw a bunch of live arms against the wall and see what sticks” approach to bullpen-building has some merit. But – and this should be blatantly obvious, although it apparently wasn’t to the White Sox – it only works if you have more candidates than you have open bullpen spots, because the whole point of the strategy is that not everyone is going to stick. It’s what you do when you need to fill one or two spots; when you need to fill four, it’s a recipe for disaster. The way KW played it, he needed every single one of the new guys to deliver. They didn’t. And the result was predictably ugly.

Also, usually, when teams enter a season with a horribly unsettled bullpen like that, they find two or three guys along the way who stabilize things. The White Sox never did. The closest thing they had to a stabilizing force was Ehren Wassermann, who gave them a grand total of 23 innings and who, as you can see above, doesn’t project to be of much use next year. So they entered this offseason with no more bullpen depth than they did back in March – which, of course, prompted the astonishingly awful Linebrink signing. Fun how everything all comes together like that.

Lineup

C: Pierzynski 0.94 (.237, -1)
1B: Konerko 2.66 (.294, -4)
2B: Uribe 0.77 (.226, 10)
SS: Cabrera 1.84 (.249, 0)
3B: Fields 1.27 (.266, -9)
LF: Sweeney 1.28 (.248, 6)
CF: Anderson 0.48 (.237, -2)
RF: Dye 2.13 (.279, 5)
DH: Thome 3.31 (.303)

No, I don’t think they’ll wind up playing Uribe at 2B. But it’s the best configuration of their current collection of talent.

A healthy Thome will beat that projection, but that’s really just begging the question.

Obviously, this is a terrible lineup, and they desperately need to add an outfielder or two.

Bench

Hall .193
Richar .238
Cintron .220
Owens .233

If I Were In Charge, I Would: If the White Sox add any more big contracts, that will only assist their transformation into Orioles West. Obviously, if someone falls into their lap at a below-market rate, they should take advantage of that, but they’re not in a position to be handing out market value deals. Doing so would be a great way to lock themselves into the 75-80 win range for years to come.

And if they decide to be sellers, it will a) completely destroy whatever slim chances they have for ’08 and b) not do a whole lot for the future (because the guys they would be trading are signed to market-value contracts, which means by definition that they have minimal trade value).

So the solution, if you can call it that, is to do nothing. Well, not nothing – I’d add a reliever or two, and hunt for hidden gems in the minor league free agent pool – but nothing likely to make headlines. This team is trapped between a rock and a hard place, and all they can do is sit and wait in the hope that an escape will present itself.

[Heltonfan]

There’s really nothing to like about the Nationals. They aren’t very good. They aren’t very young. And they don’t have a particularly impressive farm system. It could be worse – they don’t have any albatross contracts to deal with – but they’re not in good shape.

Summary Statistics
Rotation: -31
Bullpen: -17
Lineup: -21
Bench: +11
Defense: -27
W-L record: 72-90

Rotation

Hill 4.04
Patterson 4.44
Gonzalez 4.53
Bergmann 4.96
Traber 5.14

Two winters ago, I thought John Patterson was on the verge of establishing himself as a legit top-of-the-rotation pitcher. He had managed to stay healthy for a full season, striking out 185 batters in 198 innings. But then, everything fell apart. He actually pitched extremely well in 2006 when healthy, but he was only healthy for 40 innings. And this past year, he had a 15/22 K/BB ratio in 31 IP; his performance is now as big a question mark as his health.

Enrique Gonzalez was acquired on waivers from the Diamondbacks, in one of Jim Bowden’s better moves. Picking up a usable starting pitcher for free is always a great thing, and the Nationals, as you can see from the numbers above, need all the help they can get.

Bullpen

Cordero 4.03
Rauch 3.79
Rivera 4.02
Ayala 4.36
Booker 4.40
Schroder 4.67
Wagner 4.98

Chad Cordero is a very interesting statistical case. Here’s his performance over the last three years; the first number is FIP, the second is ERC, and the third is adjusted RA (adjusted to the same scale as FIP and ERC, so 4.00 is average):
2005: 3.87, 2.90, 2.76
2006: 4.28, 3.49, 2.73
2007: 4.05, 4.13, 3.39
If you look at how many runs he’s allowed, Cordero looks like one of the better relievers in the game. If you look at his ERCs, he looks like he’s above average. And if you just look at his K, BB, and HR numbers, he’s quite mediocre indeed.
Obviously, I think the FIP numbers are closest to the truth. I’d be willing to say that Cordero has some ability to control BABIP (however limited), but the low ERAs are absolutely meaningless. The that pitchers can control the timing of their performance is the sort of nonsense that leads to an obviously declining Barry Zito being given $126 million.

Lineup

C: Schneider 0.77 (.226, 4)
1B: Young 0.64 (.268, -8)
2B: Belliard 0.90 (.250, -4)
SS: Lopez 0.78 (.250, -10)
3B: Zimmerman 3.46 (.278, 4)
LF: Pena 0.56 (.268, -13)
CF: Church 1.67 (.267, -9)
RF: Kearns 2.05 (.265, 3)

I like Dmitri Young. Always have (I realize this is an odd thing to say about a guy who has had the kind of problems that he’s had, but bear with me). Back in 1993, I spent a week in Arkansas visiting my cousin, who was playing for the AA Arkansas Travelers (in the Cardinals organization). I found Young to be one of the nicest guys on the team, a real pleasure to be around. Plus, he was unusually generous with autographed baseball cards, which was quite significant to me as a star-crossed nine-year-old. So I’ve always rooted for him, and I’m very pleased to see him having re-established himself as an everyday player. But the fact of the matter is that he’s a statue at first base, and isn’t likely to come close to his 2007 hitting line in the future. He’s not the kind of player that you give a multi-year deal to, although at $5 million a year through 2009, it’s hardly a crippling contract.

And it’s not just Young; this defense is terrible. Wily Mo Pena is a Manny-esque tragicomedy in the outfield, Felipe Lopez is a butcher at short, and the only outstanding defender they have is Zimmerman at 3B (he was +13 defensively this year; he’s a good bet to beat his projection for the same reasons that we all think Tulo is better than his forecast).

Bench

Flores .220
Johnson .307
Jimenez .252
Logan .223
Langerhans .246

I’ve got Nick Johnson listed on the bench here, but obviously, no one has any idea how much he’ll play. If healthy, he’s a star, a 4-WAR guy over a full season.

D’Angelo Jimenez should probably be starting over Belliard at second base.

If I Were in Charge, I Would: Obviously, contending in 2008 is a long shot. But that doesn’t mean a rebuilding project is in order, because they don’t have enough tradeable assets to make it worthwhile. So the plan here is to trade Cordero to some sucker team drawn in by his saves and ERA, and beyond that, try to bring in what talent they can through free agency. The Nationals are in a bit of an unfortunate position in that there are no worthwhile 1B, 2B, or SS available on the free agent market (save Iguchi, who will have plenty of more appealing suitors). But Fukudome is worth making a run at. Ditto Bradley. Ditto Lohse/Silva/Kuroda (due to the appalling lack of starting pitching depth in the organization). And, if they trade Cordero, Washington would be a nice place for Eric Gagne to land.