Orioles better than the Jays?

danjulien · 01-02-2007, 12:06 AM

So over at BVTN, I initially said that my gut is telling me that the Orioles have a better chance to succeed this season than the Jays. I don't know why my gut feels it but their roster seems better balanced and less likely to crumble because of injuries. But isntead of just accepting this, I decided to look into it statistically, breaking down every player in the lineup. If you want to see that article, it's here but the conclusions are...

* The Jays have an advantage offensively, but the Orioles offense should not be dismissed, they have a better catcher, second baseman and shortstop, along with a better bench. The Jays' position players are not as versatile as the Orioles and therefore, since a couple have injury histories, it will be tougher to adjust if injuries hit
* The biggest difference is, surprise surprise, at shortsop where Tejada is a much superior player than the Clayton/McDonald combo
* The rotation advantage goes to the Jays because of their top duo of Halladay and Burnett , however Bedard is getting better and Mazzone's impact should not be dismissed in his second season. Also, the Jays have injury concerns with their top three starters and although they have tremendous depth at the position...the depth starters should not be counted upon to replace Halladay or Burnett for an extended period of time
* The Jays have the better closer after having signed him away from the Orioles last season but the Orioles have great veteran depth in the pen and the Jays do not yet know who will be relied upon as their top reliever after Ryan. So the bullpen is better in Baltimore until the ninth inning

feathered friend · 01-19-2007, 02:45 AM

Why is B. J. Ryan necessarily a "better" closer than Chris Ray?
Because he got more save opportunities?
I don't think that makes him better at all..... and for the difference in salary, Ryan should have had about 20,000 saves in 2006 alone.

We have Miguel Tejada in our lineup, the Jays have Vernon Wells.
Those are the big guns for each team and I rate them about equal at their respective positions as well as offensively.

I don't see where the Jay's supporting cast behind Wells is any better than the Orioles' supporting cast is behind Tejada.
I think besides being at least equal offensively, the Orioles have a fresher look, more speed, more versatility, better overall defense and more overall character.

The Oriole pitching is once again being assessed only on past performance and not individual as well as situational potential.

Kris Benson and Erik Bedard are solid at the top while Adam Loewen and Daniel Cabrera both outright scare people.
Jaret Wright as a random factor could very well end up being the league's best #5 starter.

The Jays staff could be tough, too. But they have far less overal talent potential and far more potential to implode.

I like the O's new bullpen better than I like the Jays'.

Once again, the key could be in the way Perlozzo learns to use these talented players in the best possible ways.

DiamondDave · 01-19-2007, 08:20 AM

I have ZERO faith in Benson... and Wright, being a retread is probably a complete flop.... if Penn does not make the rotation, I think that we can count 2 out of every 5 games as an almost guaranteed loss....

I sort of like our Pen, but the age of our pen does not sit well with me. You don't go making huge improvements with middle relievers past their prime...

I do like the lineup of the Jays a bit more than our lineup... after Roberts, Huff, Markakis, and Tejada, I have little faith in the rest of our lineup.... Mora should no longer be considered a shoe in for the 2 spot in the order. I think those days are behind him.... I think Hernandez will look more like the Hernandez from the 2nd 1/2 of last year, that the Hernandez of the first 1/2... Patterson is not consistant enough to be an every day #2 hitter... Gibbons is a continual disappointment... Payton is a piece of crap, and has NEVER done anything outside of his 1 good year in Colorado

feathered friend · 01-19-2007, 05:30 PM

.... and so the world turns.

KRS-One · 01-19-2007, 09:25 PM

I have a very good feeling about the O's this year, which is something I haven't been able to say since 1996....and I was only 7 in 1996, so I didn't say it then, either.

DiamondDave · 01-19-2007, 10:56 PM

dag do I feel old now

Yankee1012 · 01-20-2007, 05:28 PM

The O's better than the Jays!!! On Paper no where close.

The O's need there young pitching staff to step up this year (And Offense does well). If they do that then they have a shot to do better than the Jays.

Until im proven wrong by how the O's pitch then this is a long shot.

01-02-2007, 12:06 AM	#1 (permalink)
danjulien Member Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 20	Orioles better than the Jays? So over at BVTN, I initially said that my gut is telling me that the Orioles have a better chance to succeed this season than the Jays. I don't know why my gut feels it but their roster seems better balanced and less likely to crumble because of injuries. But isntead of just accepting this, I decided to look into it statistically, breaking down every player in the lineup. If you want to see that article, it's here but the conclusions are... * The Jays have an advantage offensively, but the Orioles offense should not be dismissed, they have a better catcher, second baseman and shortstop, along with a better bench. The Jays' position players are not as versatile as the Orioles and therefore, since a couple have injury histories, it will be tougher to adjust if injuries hit * The biggest difference is, surprise surprise, at shortsop where Tejada is a much superior player than the Clayton/McDonald combo * The rotation advantage goes to the Jays because of their top duo of Halladay and Burnett , however Bedard is getting better and Mazzone's impact should not be dismissed in his second season. Also, the Jays have injury concerns with their top three starters and although they have tremendous depth at the position...the depth starters should not be counted upon to replace Halladay or Burnett for an extended period of time * The Jays have the better closer after having signed him away from the Orioles last season but the Orioles have great veteran depth in the pen and the Jays do not yet know who will be relied upon as their top reliever after Ryan. So the bullpen is better in Baltimore until the ninth inning __________________ baseball views from the North

01-19-2007, 08:20 AM	#3 (permalink)
DiamondDave Hall of Famer Join Date: Nov 2006 Location: MD, on the Potomac River Posts: 5,390	I have ZERO faith in Benson... and Wright, being a retread is probably a complete flop.... if Penn does not make the rotation, I think that we can count 2 out of every 5 games as an almost guaranteed loss.... I sort of like our Pen, but the age of our pen does not sit well with me. You don't go making huge improvements with middle relievers past their prime... I do like the lineup of the Jays a bit more than our lineup... after Roberts, Huff, Markakis, and Tejada, I have little faith in the rest of our lineup.... Mora should no longer be considered a shoe in for the 2 spot in the order. I think those days are behind him.... I think Hernandez will look more like the Hernandez from the 2nd 1/2 of last year, that the Hernandez of the first 1/2... Patterson is not consistant enough to be an every day #2 hitter... Gibbons is a continual disappointment... Payton is a piece of crap, and has NEVER done anything outside of his 1 good year in Colorado __________________ Reagan in 08... Even though he's dead, he's the better choice! Superdelegates - Because even the Democratic party knows it's base is too stupid to make really important decisions.

01-19-2007, 09:25 PM	#5 (permalink)
KRS-One Member Join Date: Nov 2006 Location: Just South of Baltimore, MD Posts: 185	I have a very good feeling about the O's this year, which is something I haven't been able to say since 1996....and I was only 7 in 1996, so I didn't say it then, either. __________________ Orioles-Ravens-Wizards-Terps How could colonized minds lead to such uncivilized times? Maybe the tribes were harmonious and you were erroneous.

01-19-2007, 10:56 PM	#6 (permalink)
DiamondDave Hall of Famer Join Date: Nov 2006 Location: MD, on the Potomac River Posts: 5,390	dag do I feel old now __________________ Reagan in 08... Even though he's dead, he's the better choice! Superdelegates - Because even the Democratic party knows it's base is too stupid to make really important decisions.

01-20-2007, 05:28 PM	#7 (permalink)
Yankee1012 Moderator Join Date: Nov 2006 Location: Atlanta, GA Posts: 554	The O's better than the Jays!!! On Paper no where close. The O's need there young pitching staff to step up this year (And Offense does well). If they do that then they have a shot to do better than the Jays. Until im proven wrong by how the O's pitch then this is a long shot. __________________ Jets-Yankees-Knicks-Cowboys-GA Tech-Rangers

01-19-2007, 02:45 AM	#2 (permalink)
feathered friend Member Join Date: Jan 2007 Location: Orange County, Florida Posts: 56	Why is B. J. Ryan necessarily a "better" closer than Chris Ray? Because he got more save opportunities? I don't think that makes him better at all..... and for the difference in salary, Ryan should have had about 20,000 saves in 2006 alone. We have Miguel Tejada in our lineup, the Jays have Vernon Wells. Those are the big guns for each team and I rate them about equal at their respective positions as well as offensively. I don't see where the Jay's supporting cast behind Wells is any better than the Orioles' supporting cast is behind Tejada. I think besides being at least equal offensively, the Orioles have a fresher look, more speed, more versatility, better overall defense and more overall character. The Oriole pitching is once again being assessed only on past performance and not individual as well as situational potential. Kris Benson and Erik Bedard are solid at the top while Adam Loewen and Daniel Cabrera both outright scare people. Jaret Wright as a random factor could very well end up being the league's best #5 starter. The Jays staff could be tough, too. But they have far less overal talent potential and far more potential to implode. I like the O's new bullpen better than I like the Jays'. Once again, the key could be in the way Perlozzo learns to use these talented players in the best possible ways.

01-19-2007, 05:30 PM	#4 (permalink)
feathered friend Member Join Date: Jan 2007 Location: Orange County, Florida Posts: 56	.... and so the world turns.