Team Spotlight: Atlanta Braves

[Heltonfan]

The Braves are loaded. By the component stats, they were an 87-win team this year; they’re losing very little from that team, and they’ll have Teixeira for a full season, making them the clear favorites in the NL East.

Summary Statistics
Rotation: +6
Bullpen: 0
Lineup: +82
Bench: +4
Defense: +2
W-L record: 89-73

Rotation

Smoltz 3.61
Hudson 4.07
James 4.64
Glavine 4.70
Hampton 4.41

Smoltz and Hudson had ERCs of 3.30 and 3.15 this year, respectively. Why does the projection system hate them so? In Smoltz’s case, it’s age, nothing more. His projection might be the single most bothersome to me in my entire spreadsheet. He hasn’t dropped off at all in the last few years; why start now? There certainly aren’t any statistical red flags. Hudson’s forecasted blahness is the result of him being in his 30s and having been average-ish in 2005 and 2006; I have a lot more confidence in his projection than I do in Smoltz’s. Another thing to consider with Hudson is that he somehow managed to allow only 10 HR in 224 IP this year. Even for a groundball pitcher (and Hudson is no Cook or Wang), that’s completely unsustainable.

$8 million is a lot to pay for a guy who’s closer to replacement level than he is to league average. But in Glavine’s case, I think it’s tolerable. For one thing, the Braves really do need rotation depth, and signing Glavine is a lot better than giving someone a big multi-year deal. For another thing, if there is such a thing as a clutch pitcher, Glavine is it. He’s been outperforming his ERCs throughout his career; recently, by a margin of 5 runs a year or so. So maybe 4.50 is a more reasonable expectation than 4.70. It’s not an argument I would make, but the point is simply that there is some upside here.

The Braves also have Jair Jurrjens, acquired in the Renteria deal, who projects at 4.80, and Buddy Carlyle, who projects at 4.81. So they’ve got enough options that they should be able to avoid giving too many starts to guys who don’t belong in the major leagues. The 2007 Braves were undone by an absolutely horrendous back of the rotation; they gave 44 starts to Kyle Davies, Jo-Jo Reyes, Lance Cormier, Mark Redman, and Anthony Lerew, who combined for 3.2 wins below replacement level.

Bullpen

Soriano 3.67
Devine 3.96
Yates 4.12
Ascanio 4.30
Ring 4.32
Moylan 4.56
Gonzalez 2.95

A decent group. I’ve always liked Rafael Soriano, and I think the projection there is taking his sky-high HR rate (12 in 72 innings) too seriously. I’d guess that he’ll end up around 3.30 or so.

Peter Moylan is one of the best stories in baseball, having been discovered during the World Baseball Classic (pitching for Australia). He had a wonderful 2007 season, with a 1.80 ERA in 90 innings. The projections don’t like him, though, because he was terrible in AAA in 2006, and his success this year was heavily BABIP-driven; his K/BB numbers are nothing special. Given Moylan’s unorthodox delivery, I’m inclined to say that the low BABIP isn’t entirely luck; on the other hand, he had a very high BABIP in Triple-A, so who knows? All told, as much as I’d love to see him continue to succeed, I can’t argue with the projection. He is the ultimate illustration of how volatile and unpredictable a reliever’s performance really is.

Mike Gonzalez is returning from Tommy John surgery; from what I’ve read, he’ll probably be back in June. He’s a fantastic pitcher.

Lineup

C: McCann 3.34 (.290, -3)
1B: Teixeira 4.50 (.316, 1)
2B: Johnson 2.99 (.282, -4)
SS: Escobar 1.77 (.252, -2)
3B: Jones 5.82 (.321, 1)
LF: Diaz 3.08 (.282, 3)
CF: Harris 0.84 (.242, -2)
RF: Francoeur 1.71 (.263, 1)

One word: wow. That is one heck of a lineup. The projections think Brian McCann is in line for a big bounceback season; I don’t disagree. Chipper Jones has become one of the most underrated players around; he actually led the league in ABR this year.

Matt Diaz is an interesting case study. His BABIP:
2005 (Omaha): .418
2006 (Atlanta) .373
2007 (Atlanta): .385
I talk a lot about hitters’ BABIP as something heavily luck-influenced. Which it is. But when you hang out in the high .300s for three years in a row… Diaz can flat-out hit. I’ve always thought it was interesting that the Braves were the team to finally give him an extended opportunity; he had a bit of a AAAA player reputation, and guys like that usually have more luck with stat-friendly organizations than they do with scouting-friendly organizations like Atlanta.

You’ll notice that I haven’t disparaged the Braves’ traditionalist approach to player evaluation. That’s because there are two schools of “traditional” baseball thought. One is actually a statistical approach, but a hopelessly primitive one. This is the school of thought that thinks Carlos Lee is a great player because he drives in 100 runs a year, or that Barry Zito pitched well in 2006 because he went 16-10 with a 3.83 ERA. This approach is about as valid as the geocentric theory of the universe, and is guaranteed to blow up in the face of any team that employs it. The other school of thought is traditionalism in its pure form: evaluating players by watching them play. In other words, scouting. Which is a perfectly legitimate method. It’s riskier than the sabermetric approach, because it’s a heck of a lot harder to be a good scout than it is to be a good sabermetrician (everything I know about player evaluation, I could teach in less than a week; scouting is much, much more complicated), but if done well, there’s no reason why it can’t be very successful. This, of course, is what the Braves have been doing for about a decade and a half. And all I can say about it is, more power to them.

Bench

Pena .241
Thorman .245
Prado .235
Lillibridge .240
Jones .250

Solid group. Lillibridge might end up challenging Yunel Escobar for playing time at SS.

If I Were in Charge, I Would: Make a couple signings, and otherwise sit on my hands.

CF needs to be addressed: should be either Cameron or Corey Patterson (not Rowand, for reasons discussed ad nauseum already). And then sign a reliever or two. They could really use a quality third starter, too, but finding someone who fits that description is much easier said than done.

[jpx7]

I've been reading your 2008 team projections and enjoying them; are you projecting the Braves to win the NL East in 2008?

I'd like to think they can, but a lot is still pending — if the Mets acquire Santana, for instance, the Braves are suddenly in a lot of trouble. Fortifying the CF position (not Josh Anderson) and the bullpen (at least one signing of a relatively dependable reliever – and Mahay would be a nice choice) could really push them to the top of the NL East . . . as it is constituted now, at least.

By no means should Wren be done looking at upgrades, if for no other reason than Minaya may be a little bit more desperate this offseason.

[bedir than average]

He does have the Braves winning the NL East with 90 games. I've been copying his team reports over from the Rockies board and sometimes HeltonFan has posted on the team boards concerning his spotlight and sometimes not. Basically I wanted to share his work with as many of our boards as possible.

Projecting and Analyzing the Free Agents - Team projections/needs added

That thread has a compilation of each of his team spotlights.

[Heltonfan]

I'd like to think they can, but a lot is still pending — if the Mets acquire Santana, for instance, the Braves are suddenly in a lot of trouble.

I don't think you need to worry about that. Someone is going to give up a huge piece for Santana. Maybe Kemp, Billingsley, Hughes, Buchholz - I don't know. But it will be someone at that level, and the Mets don't have anybody at that level. Besides, the Twins aren't just going to sell Johan to the highest bidder; if they don't get an offer they like, they'll just keep him.

For what it's worth, though, under the worst-case scenario (Mets get Johan without giving up any contributors to their '08 team), Atlanta and New York would be in a projected dead heat at the top of the division. Johan is worth five wins.

It's inconceivable to me that the Braves won't project as the best team in the division four months from now. That's not to say that they can't lose, of course, but I don't see anything that could happen that would move the Mets or Phillies ahead of them on paper (assuming that the Braves do indeed get themselves a CF, of course).

[Snowman]

One small thing: Willie Harris is almost certainly not going to be the CF. Unfortunately it looks like the alternative will be a younger Willie Harris, more or less... Josh Anderson, who we just received in a trade with Houston. A kid from A-ball, Jordan Schafer, is also a possibility, and some of us really hope that Lillibridge gets a spring training position switch to move him out there, but Anderson seems to be the guy the FO wants.

[bedir than average]

Anderson's pABR is .212
Schafer's is .224

per HF's projections

[Perfect Cell]

Having Tex a full season isnt a big deal. He tend to be a seccond half player anyways.

[MikeT]

Originally Posted by Snowman

One small thing: Willie Harris is almost certainly not going to be the CF. Unfortunately it looks like the alternative will be a younger Willie Harris, more or less... Josh Anderson, who we just received in a trade with Houston. A kid from A-ball, Jordan Schafer, is also a possibility, and some of us really hope that Lillibridge gets a spring training position switch to move him out there, but Anderson seems to be the guy the FO wants.

Absolutely true Snowman.
I would like to see what Schafer can do out there but we don't need to rush him.
Anderson I believe is the very "interim" CF.