Ta ta Oscar

[renny]

I'd rather have Oscar in the pen in '08 than any of those 5..

...but, OV has the highest price tag? I just think they are budgeting wherever possible. I personally like Villareal and hope the move portends at least one *splash* (Glavine excluded) before the OS is over.

[Snowman]

You're probably right, but I still think it's a bad move. I really, really, really don't care for the makeup of this pen, and this made it even weaker, IMO. There's not one single guy in there who doesn't come with question marks, not one person I feel we can put our complete faith in. In that case, I'd like to have a few extra options ready for when some inevitably bomb.

But hey, it is early yet... maybe they're planning on adding a couple of good relievers somehow before it's all said and done. We'll see.

[Perfect Cell]

I dont "hate it" dont love it either. Anderson aint the solution at CF, and Oscar was servicable...

Had this been Tyler Yates instead i would have been more favorable to it

[jpx7]

"But hey, it is early yet... maybe they're planning on adding a couple of good relievers somehow before it's all said and done."

This is my hope, as well; it seems as if they may make a serious play to bring back Mahay, and were linked to at least one Japanese free-agent reliever (Masahide Kobayashi) in the press. I'd like to see two such options, to give the pen some actual depth, but with the price of free-agent relievers I can't expect more than one significant signing; even that, along with the young relievers the Braves have, and any rehabilitation projects (Hampton), could gel into a pretty solid bullpen in 2008 – even if Mike Gonzalez never returns next year.

[Snowman]

Originally Posted by jpx7

even that, along with the young relievers the Braves have, and any rehabilitation projects (Hampton), could gel into a pretty solid bullpen in 2008 – even if Mike Gonzalez never returns next year.

See, to my eyes, the only difference between out current pen and the '05 pen is that Soriano isn't Dan OlBB (in a good way, of course).

[jpx7]

Well, I at least hope Devine can be better — and remember, I made my remarks contingent on further upgrades. I appreciate that this bullpen has many dubious dimensions as currently constructed — but that would have been true with or without Villarreal.

[Snowman]

Oh, I know that... it's just that he was one of very few who didn't carry huge question marks. It'd have been nice to have that one sure thing mediocre reliever in there to augment all the potential failures. I think to make this a good bullpen, we need to pick up two very solid relievers, one from each side. To make it a slightly below average bullpen, we still need a solid 8th-inning-quality guy.

[jpx7]

I agree with you completely — I'm just choosing to hope that moving Villarreal (whom you describe perfectly) for something so irrelevant (Willie Harris-type fourth-outfielder fodder) is a sign that Wren fully intends to (significantly) improve the bullpen, and thus desired to remove Villarreal's ~$1.5 million 2008 salary in order to enable that.

The real question is the extent to which my/our understanding of significant improvement differs from Wren's; if it differs too much on the wrong side, the Braves could be in trouble in 2008.

Still, if two such very solid relievers are acquired, the bullpen could look pretty solid:

Soriano
Moylan
RHP Acquisition
LHP Acquisition
Devine
Ring
Acosta

With Ascanio, Boyer, Stockman, et al supplying some depth, that bullpen would appear quite above average – as long as the two aforementioned acquisitions are indeed very solid relievers. Even if Wren can only secure a very solid RHP (Kobayashi? better free-agent or trade options?) or very solid LHP (Mahay?), I think the Braves could field an adequate bullpen out of that addition and their untested depth; I'd even like to see Hampton in the bullpen if he can pitch at all in 2008, so that could be another lefty option.

Or maybe I've just been so down on Schuerholz these past few years, I am giving Wren a little more benefit of the doubt for now just for the rose-colored impression on my 2008 outlook.

[Snowman]

Heh, so in a way, we're saying the same thing but in different ways.

Funny, that last line... Like you, I've been very down on JS the last few years, and began the offseason giving Wren the benefit of the doubt. But the moves and rumoured moves thus far (Glavine, bringing a kid up from single-A to play canter because he had 40 good PAs in the AFL, seeming to completely ignore the pen by filling it with journeyman trash and hoping it sticks, acquiring a garbage player from Houston and touting him as a possible contender for the CF job, so on and so forth) have been so JS-like that I have now begun to wonder who is actually making the decisions.

[jpx7]

The merits of adding Glavine are obviously very debatable, but that move could benefit the Braves with corresponding moves to improve other components of the team . . . which brings us to the other three "moves" you mention: I'm hoping (for now) that it's all posturing and preparation to set up more material improvements.

I guess I'll get back to you in March.

[Snowman]

Oh, no doubt... I'll keep hoping right up until opening day. But I'm becoming more cynical by the week here. They just seem rather clueless thus far.

You know what kills me? There was a guy available who could have really helped our pitching in '07, but we never even inquired. He went to Philly instead. That same guy, Kyle Lohse, is a free agent right now... but we signed Glavine. Like Glav, he is a #4 starter at this point, and I would say there's a decent chance he could be the better of the two in '08 (4.50 or so to 5.00 or so). He's also about 10 years younger, and likely would have been cheaper.
I just wonder if our FO will ever figure out to intelligently build a team with a budget under $100 million.

[jpx7]

I don't much like Lohse either, especially with some reports speculating that he and Boras are seeking a deal along the lines of Gil Meche's 5/$55 million contract; at least Glavine is highly short-term, and relatively reasonable at $8 million in 2008.

I counted Glavine out after watching him post 9-14, 4.52 ERA numbers and be trounced by the Braves multiple times (one of which I witnessed personally) in 2004, at age 37; he responded to that season with subsequent years of 119, 116, 114 ERA+ respectively, along with several solid stretches in 2007, before tanking in September to post a 96 ERA+.

But, even if he ends 2008 around 100-105 ERA+ in ~200 IP, that solidifies the third and fourth spots in the rotation, as I expect James to rebound to at least 110 ERA+, and suspect Jurrjens is capable of at least 100+ ERA+ in his first season. None of those spots look to hold phenomenal production; but, if the three starters behind Smoltz and Hudson can all be a little better than league average – and Smoltz and Hudson can stay healthy – I think the Braves offense can convert that pitching into a fair amount of wins in 2008.

If, somehow, Smoltz/Hudson stay healthy and around 2008 levels of production and one (or two) of James/Glavine/Jurrjens step up to levels significantly above league-average, then the Braves could have a very competitive rotation and team next season. Nonetheless, as we've said, a lot of work is as yet left undone for Wren.

[Snowman]

I'm expecting something along the lines of an 85 ERA+ from Glav in '08. You're right in that his early numbers weren't bad, but they were deceptive IMO. He's lost at least 6 or 7 MPH off every pitch from the time we had him (and it's not like he was ever a hard thrower), he's telegraphing his changeup, and he couldn't strike anyone out.

[jpx7]

I didn't watch Glavine pitch enough in 2007 to really characterize his weaknesses, but I am hoping for some adaptations that might help him regain some form; still, an 85 OPS+ – while I hope it would be the worst in the 2008 rotation – would represent an improvement over any 2007 Braves starter with more than three starts not named Smoltz, Hudson, or James (Carlylye: 82, Davies: 74, Reyes: 69, Cormier: 60, Redman: 37).

Even around a 90 ERA+ in 170+ IP could help the Braves if James and Jurrjens pitch better than the league-average, and Smoltz and Hudson stay healthy; and $8 million doesn't look too bad for that kind of production, relative to today's free-agent market. I'm still hoping for significant league-average innings out of Glavine's 42-year old arm, but Wren can mitigate the deleterious effect of a further decline by really solidifying center-field and the relief corps.

[Snowman]

Ah, so if I'm right, we just pretty much paid $8 million to keep Buddy Carlyle in the rotation.