Team Spotlight: Arizona Diamondbacks

[Heltonfan]

Much has been made about how lucky the ’07 Diamondbacks were. And make no mistake, they were a true .500 team at best. But the ’08 club looks pretty good; they’re not losing any important players, and the kids are bound to hit better than they did this year.

Summary Statistics
Rotation: +36
Bullpen: +19
Lineup: -39
Bench: +5
Defense: +16

Rotation

Webb 3.02
Davis 4.38
Gonzalez 4.25
Owings 4.26
Johnson 4.03

This is probably the best rotation in the NL; Webb is the best pitcher in baseball, and the other guys are all #4 starters at worst.

Nate Silver, in his offseason preview at BPro, said that “There’s an obvious place to upgrade in the starting pitching department; Webb, Davis, Micah Owings, and Johnson are a credible front four, but there’s a big drop-off after that.” I couldn’t disagree more. Edgar Gonzalez is a solid pitcher, and has been for several years now. Dana Eveland (4.10) looks like a league-average starter. Dustin Nippert (4.34) is in the same range. And Max Scherzer (4.54) isn’t far away. In other words, there isn’t anyone available who would represent more than a 6-7 run upgrade over the Diamondbacks’ eighth starter.

Bullpen

Valverde 3.26
Lyon 3.56
Pena 3.62
Cruz 3.63
Slaten 3.88
Peguero 4.31
Nippert 4.34

Even with the projected regression of Valverde, Lyon, Pena, and Cruz, this is the second-best bullpen in the league, behind the Dodgers.

Lineup

C: Snyder 1.68 (.239, 6)
1B: Jackson 1.64 (.276, -3)
2B: Hudson 1.98 (.258, 0)
SS: Drew 0.86 (.245, -8)
3B: Tracy 1.88 (.267, -2)
LF: Byrnes 1.88 (.252, 11)
CF: Young 2.08 (.260, 2)
RF: Quentin 0.80 (.250, 2)

We’ve seen the “too many average players” problem a couple times already, with the Red Sox and the Pirates; Arizona takes it to a new level. When Conor Jackson is your best hitter, you’ve got problems.

Even that ugly projection represents a major step forward for Drew; he’s got a long way to go to become a real asset.

Bench

Montero .235
Callaspo .240
Reynolds .259
Upton .246
Salazar .234

Not a bad group.

If I Were in Charge, I Would: Not do very much. The rotation is too good to be significantly upgraded. So is the bullpen. So are C, 1B, 2B, 3B, LF, and CF. Making a move at SS is out of the question because there’s nothing available, and they can’t give up on Drew’s potential. Which leaves RF as the lone position where something could be done.

So I’d look to deal Doug Davis for a bat… as previously mentioned, the D’Backs have plenty of rotation depth, so losing Davis shouldn’t hurt them at all. The Tigers might be interested; Marcus Thames or Ryan Raburn would be a nice return for Davis. If the Astros go ahead with their insane plan of signing one of the big-name free agent center fielders, Luke Scott will be available, and the ‘Stros need starting pitching in the worst way. Philadelphia (for Werth) might be another fit.

And the follow-up move: with the losses of Davis and Livan Hernandez, the D’Backs would have $15 million coming off the books. That should be enough to allow them to land Fukudome or Bonds…or they could go the cheaper route and gamble on Bradley. That would be my preference.

Between Young, a big-name free agent OF signing, Byrnes, and the guy they get for Davis, there would be no room for Justin Upton… but that’s just fine. In fact, I’d make a point of keeping Upton down in AAA long enough to push his free agency back to 2015. And Byrnes needs to be dealt; that contract extension was a mistake, but it’s not too late to undo it. Surely there’s a team out there that would value him as a cheaper alternative to Hunter/Jones/Rowand.

[Roxpert]

Heltonfan, that +36 for the rotation carries lots of risk. If the Big Unit's back won't allow him to come back, you can scratch him off that list. And if they listen to you and trade Davis, they have to replace his 4.38 with someone else. Owings is a young pitcher who is a better bet as a hitter than as a pitcher at this point, though I would love to have him on the Rockies. So, if the DBacks' hopes rest with their "NL-best rotation", they may be setting up their fans for disappointment.

Also, don't the Giants have a better rotation than the Snakes even now?

[Heltonfan]

If the Big Unit's back won't allow him to come back, you can scratch him off that last.

Okay, replace Johnson (4.03) with Dana Eveland (4.10). Big deal.

And if they listen to you and trade Davis, they have to replace his 4.38 with someone else.

Okay, replace Davis (4.38) with Dustin Nippert (4.34). Big deal.

Every rotation has a lot of risk. But the D'Backs, because of their quality depth, have less such risk than probably any other team in the game.

Also, don't the Giants have a better rotation than the Snakes even now?

It's fairly close, but no. Zito's no better than Owings/Gonzalez, and they don't have a viable fifth starter.

[Roxpert]

Dana Eveland is as good as a healthy Randy Johnson? I did not know that, so I better do my homework better.

Nippert is as good as Davis? I didn't know that either, though it doesn't terribly surprise me.

Actually, the guy who started the last game of the regular season against the Rockies, Petit, seemed pretty effective. So I can understand what you're saying about their pitching depth. Still, it's their bullpen that I think makes that team dangerous since they seemed to be able to pull out more than their fair share of late and close wins in 2007 thanks to the lock-down relievers they have in Lyon, Valverde, Pena, and Cruz.

[Goose]

A few things:

The rotation is solid, but I'm not sure if I'd call it the NL's best. The NL's deepest maybe, but I don't know if I'd call it the best.

Webb is Webb. Among the best pitchers in the game, nothing to see here.

DD is a solid MOR pitcher, but I worry about some regression next season. He's gotten a little lucky in 2007, and if he doesn't limit the walks a little and the homers, I could see his ERA closer to 5 than 4 in 2008.

Micah Owings is probably my favorite D-Back. He's awesome. Solid numbers all around for his rookie campaign. His flyballs might be a problem in Chase, but besides that I think he's gonna be a solid #3 going forward. Oh and he's the best hitting pitcher in the DH era. I still contend that he needs to bat 6th next year.

RJ is obviously the wildcard. Who knows how long he's gonna be able to pitch, if at all. But if he is able to give them 200 innings with the production he showed in his limited time last year, Arizona wins that division.

Obviously the D-Backs have alot of options for the 5th starter spot. But despite that, it looks like Josh Byrnes is going to deal for a starter anyways. Probably to act as RJ insurance. Because IMO you have to play like he's not going to pitch in 2008.

The pen is gonna be due for some regression obviously. But I'll agree that it's still gonna be good. No arguments there.

I think you underestimate this lineup. Alot of people do I think. It's a young good lineup that IMO should do nothing but improve.

Snyder didn't grab the starting job for good until about June or so. But when he did, he responded in a big way. He was arguably the DBacks best hitter in the 2nd half, and carried the team for weeks. He hit .292/.386/.503 after the break and I think it bodes well for the future. He's still only 26.

Jackson is a guy people criminally underrate. He's caused alot of debate in the D-Back community. He once again showed a great eye at the plate and his power is steadily improving. Now that Bob Melvin's favorite toy is all but gone, he should get 500+ at bats next year. A 290/.380/.510 or so line next year wouldn't surprise me in the least.

If the O-Dawg isn't traded for a starter, I expect him to put up around the same line in 2008 as he did in 2007.

Drew...well I don't know what to say about Drew. He had a craptastic year all around. He didn't show a damn thing till the last 2 weeks of the year and in the playoffs. I agree it's way to early to give up on him and the D-Backs are more than willing to wait. But I worry about him.

Reynolds has a crapload of power. That much is obvious. But his BABIP was rather high in 2007. He needs to cut down the K's if he's gonna be productive in 2008.

Byrnes will be what Byrnes is. A steady bat in the first half and a $10M 4th OF in the 2nd half. I can see his walks regressing back to career levels and his power leveling off a bit. But the SB and the good defense will still be there. He's not going anywhere since he has a full NTC. Thanks for that Moorad you idiot.

I expect Young's average to raise 30 points in 2008, and he should walk a little more. He showed increased plate discipline in the 2nd half as well as increased power. A .270/.330/.550 line is not out of the question, neither is 30/30.

Right field is a big question mark. I agree that Upton needs to spend at least a few months in Tuscon. He had a few good games in the majors, but his defense was horrible, and he had problems with the outside pitch. He needs some polish. Quentin is questionable as well. He still has power, but his pitch recognition all but vanished. How much of that is due to injury, I don't know. But I could see the DBacks giving him one last shot in an attempt to up his trade value.

All in all, I think this team will steadily improve due to their youth and overall talent. Mixed in with some key trades and this team should win at least 85 games next year. Maybe more if a few things break right.