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BigRapidsJackass · August 1st, 2007, 09:26 AM

BP playoff chances: 17 percent

Coolstandings "smart" odds: 20 percent; "dumb" odds: 19.5 percent

Someone asked about the impact of losing Rodrigo Lopez. The answer is that neither system (from what I can tell) would factor this in. In fact, even BP's PECOTA-based variant uses preseason PECOTA projected winning percentages for each club. I think their "ELO" based variant is supposed to factor in roster changes, but their explanation isn't exactly clear.

One other difference in the systems to keep in mind: the "basic" BP odds report (in fact, all of their 3 versions) are based on pythagorean records. I think the coolstandings "smart" odds are based on pythag records, and the "dumb" report on real records. This makes a difference when a club (Diamondbacks) is somewhat outperforming their pythag record. For example, the D'backs playoff chances:

BP basic: 24% (based on their pythagorean winning percentage of .469)
Coolstandings "smart": 26.1%
Coolstandings "dumb" (based on real-world record up till now): 52.8%

EDIT: Actually, the coolstandings "dumb" mode is really dumb: not only is it based on real (not pythag) records; it also assumes every club is a .500 club going forward. I wouldn't put much stock in it at all.

August 1st, 2007, 09:26 AM	#4 (permalink)
BigRapidsJackass Veteran Member Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 1,173	BP playoff chances: 17 percent Coolstandings "smart" odds: 20 percent; "dumb" odds: 19.5 percent Someone asked about the impact of losing Rodrigo Lopez. The answer is that neither system (from what I can tell) would factor this in. In fact, even BP's PECOTA-based variant uses preseason PECOTA projected winning percentages for each club. I think their "ELO" based variant is supposed to factor in roster changes, but their explanation isn't exactly clear. One other difference in the systems to keep in mind: the "basic" BP odds report (in fact, all of their 3 versions) are based on pythagorean records. I think the coolstandings "smart" odds are based on pythag records, and the "dumb" report on real records. This makes a difference when a club (Diamondbacks) is somewhat outperforming their pythag record. For example, the D'backs playoff chances: BP basic: 24% (based on their pythagorean winning percentage of .469) Coolstandings "smart": 26.1% Coolstandings "dumb" (based on real-world record up till now): 52.8% EDIT: Actually, the coolstandings "dumb" mode is really dumb: not only is it based on real (not pythag) records; it also assumes every club is a .500 club going forward. I wouldn't put much stock in it at all. Last edited by BigRapidsJackass; August 1st, 2007 at 09:29 AM.