[Zen653]

I think the hype is too great for even Larry Lucchino to overcome. The Red Sox signed Hideki Okajima, in part to ease Matsuzaka's transition to Boston. They've already sent a delegation out to Japan to work on marketing opportunities with Seibu. Lucchino has even said in the press rather matter-of-factly that Matsuzaka will be a Red Sox player. It sounds, to me, at least, that he's confident a deal will get done. The Red Sox seem to have a good relationship with Scott Boras.

If Boras is asking for 6 years at $12 million per year, the Red Sox can probably negotiate that down to 5 years/$55 million plus a vesting option for a sixth year at $12-14 million. Maybe throw in a few bonuses for All-Star appearances. I was worried that Boras would insist on a short-term contract at $15-16 million per year. That would have been problematic because it would have given the Red Sox less of an opportunity to recoup the posting fee.

One way or another, we're taking a huge gamble here. This will easily dwarf any other initial contract signed by an international player. Let's hope that Matsuzaka doesn't become the afterwood to the Robinson Checo Story.