[Goose]

While discussing the merits of Felix Hernandez vs Justin Verlander on a prospect site, I came across a question that nobody seemed to have an answer for. Why did Verlander suddenly suffer a significant loss of K rate once he hit the big leagues?

In college Verlander posted K rates of 10.91,10.75, and 12.86 respectively. That along with other factors was one of the reasons he was picked as the 2nd overall pick of the 2004 draft.

He then went one to post K rates of 10.88 in A ball and 8.82 in AA ball at 22 years old. Combined with his low walk, homer, and hit rates made him one of the top prospects in the game.

And then something changed. He skipped AAA altogether and went straight to the Tigers where he posted a 5.56 K/9. Now granted, this was in just 11.1 innings, but it's still there.

His first big league season was obviously a success as he won the ROY and rightly so. However, his K rate was still a very unimpressive 6.0 K/9.

So this raises the question of why, and also will in continue?

A few theories have been raised. One such theory is that it correlates with him being fatigued because of having the highest workload of his career at 186 innings. However the same could be said for Felix Hernandez, who pitched 5 more innings than Verlander, is 3 years younger, and still managed a high K rate(8.29).

Another such theory, and one that I think has more merit, is that he just wasn't able to sustain that K rate against higher levels of competition. He never faced AAA hitters, so he never got a chance to really adjust to them before hitting the big leagues.

Is it possible that the Verlander we see now, is the Verlander that we will continue to see? If so, then perhaps his future is not quite as bright as once thought. Or is this simply an aberration, brought on by a pitcher who just hasn't quite completely mastered higher levels of competition with his strikeout ability.

Thoughts?