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Heltonfan · January 27th, 2007, 09:15 PM

Digging into this some more, and amending my comments (made in haste) from earlier today:

Delcarmen is probably going to be worth around 40 RAR before hitting free agency. At $2 million per win (which is still a good estimate of the actual value of a win, even though the free agent market has gone through the roof), that's $8 million of value... if he meets those expectations, he'll probably make a total of around $4 million above the minimum in his arbitration years. So his net value is about $4 million.

Hansen is similar, except he has a real contract already - call his value $3 million or so.

Youkilis is a 17 RAR player right now (being stuck at 1B, which would of course be the case with the Rockies as well, really cuts into his value). Figuring a decline of three runs per year, he's worth a total of 50 RAR over the next four years, before he hits free agency. And he'll probably make somewhere in the neighborhood of... I don't know... $12 million in his arb years? 5 wins for $12 million; that's not particularly exciting. Let's be generous and call him a $3 million asset...

Crisp? $15.5 million through '09. I've got him projected at 22 RAR next year... with the yearly decline, that gives us a total of 57 RAR over the next three years. A better player than Youkilis, but also a more expensive one... let's call him a $3 million asset as well.

Ellsbury? Off the top of my head, I'd guess a total of 25 RAR during his pre-arb years and 50 RAR during his arb years. So that's... rounding up a little bit... a $6 million value in the pre-arb years, and we'll give him the same treatment as Crisp and Youkilis, declaring him a $3 million value for his arb years even though the numbers don't quite seem to support that. Total value: $9 million.

$4 million for Delcarmen, $3 million for each of Hansen, Youkilis, and Crisp, $9 million for Ellsbury... total value of the package: $22 million. That's the generous estimate, with no Lowell, Tavarez, or Clement included in the deal to cut into our profit.

What this suggests, combined with my estimate from the other thread that Helton is making a total of $14 million more than we can reasonably be paying him (given our status as a low-payroll team), is that Helton and $36 million for Ellsbury, Youkilis, Crisp, Hansen, and Delcarmen would be a fair deal.

All of which is a long-winded way of saying that I agree with TIR's assessment, give or take a few million. And that, since the rumors involve us taking on Clement or Lowell, paying $40-45 million of Helton's deal, and not getting Ellsbury, we stand a very good chance of coming out behind by $20 million or more if a deal actually happens. This could be really ugly.

I will say this, though: as a fan of both Helton and the Red Sox, if Helton is going to be dealt, there's no place I'd rather see him go than Boston. He's a terrific fit for Fenway.

January 27th, 2007, 09:15 PM	#9 (permalink)
Heltonfan Moderator Join Date: Nov 2006 Location: Yerevan, Armenia Posts: 902	Digging into this some more, and amending my comments (made in haste) from earlier today: Delcarmen is probably going to be worth around 40 RAR before hitting free agency. At $2 million per win (which is still a good estimate of the actual value of a win, even though the free agent market has gone through the roof), that's $8 million of value... if he meets those expectations, he'll probably make a total of around $4 million above the minimum in his arbitration years. So his net value is about $4 million. Hansen is similar, except he has a real contract already - call his value $3 million or so. Youkilis is a 17 RAR player right now (being stuck at 1B, which would of course be the case with the Rockies as well, really cuts into his value). Figuring a decline of three runs per year, he's worth a total of 50 RAR over the next four years, before he hits free agency. And he'll probably make somewhere in the neighborhood of... I don't know... $12 million in his arb years? 5 wins for $12 million; that's not particularly exciting. Let's be generous and call him a $3 million asset... Crisp? $15.5 million through '09. I've got him projected at 22 RAR next year... with the yearly decline, that gives us a total of 57 RAR over the next three years. A better player than Youkilis, but also a more expensive one... let's call him a $3 million asset as well. Ellsbury? Off the top of my head, I'd guess a total of 25 RAR during his pre-arb years and 50 RAR during his arb years. So that's... rounding up a little bit... a $6 million value in the pre-arb years, and we'll give him the same treatment as Crisp and Youkilis, declaring him a $3 million value for his arb years even though the numbers don't quite seem to support that. Total value: $9 million. $4 million for Delcarmen, $3 million for each of Hansen, Youkilis, and Crisp, $9 million for Ellsbury... total value of the package: $22 million. That's the generous estimate, with no Lowell, Tavarez, or Clement included in the deal to cut into our profit. What this suggests, combined with my estimate from the other thread that Helton is making a total of $14 million more than we can reasonably be paying him (given our status as a low-payroll team), is that Helton and $36 million for Ellsbury, Youkilis, Crisp, Hansen, and Delcarmen would be a fair deal. All of which is a long-winded way of saying that I agree with TIR's assessment, give or take a few million. And that, since the rumors involve us taking on Clement or Lowell, paying $40-45 million of Helton's deal, and not getting Ellsbury, we stand a very good chance of coming out behind by $20 million or more if a deal actually happens. This could be really ugly. I will say this, though: as a fan of both Helton and the Red Sox, if Helton is going to be dealt, there's no place I'd rather see him go than Boston. He's a terrific fit for Fenway.