Let's be clear about something here; Jacob Ellsbury, which seems to be the consensus "high-value" player possibly involved in this deal, is certainly no world beater.
He's a decent prospect and then some, but we're not talking about some sort of can't-miss future All-Star. As of now, he projects to a relatively average starting CF in time. Scouts are more optimistic than that. But just because he topped a BA list doesn't mean he's nearly on par with the Chris Youngs and Lastings Milledges as far as CF prospects go. I'm not sure I'd trade him straight-up for Fowler. Lower ceiling, closer to the Majors. Take your pick.
As far as Julian Tavarez, boy thats just what we need. An acceptable mop-up man for a team that already has 20 damn candidates for fifth starter, any of whom could fall into that role.
Any notion that Jeff Baker and/or Joe Koshansky will pick up an ounce of the slack left by Helton is ludicrous. Expecting either to produce meaningfully above replacement level for a 1B in 2007 is to expect a dramatic improvement over their '06 numbers-- at ages 26 and 25 respectively next season, that just isn't in the cards.
Manny Delcarmen has a chance of making a cheap and passable 7th inning man in the future. A chance.
People love to talk about Craig Hansen for whatever reason, but he's certainly far from some stud 8th inning man or any delusion therein. The salary difference between himself and Delcarmen probably isn't worth the talent disparity, and that's not so large of a gulf to overcome.
The only way this trade has a chance to be effective in my mind;
--Youkilis is a poor man's version of Todd Helton's 2006. Come to think of it, Todd Helton's 2006 was a poor man's version of Todd Helton. Anywho, the gulf between going into 2007 with Youkilis vs. some Baker/Koshansky monstrosity is huge. He's essentially an average 1B right now, and he's inexpensive. I'll take it.
--Coco Crisp looked pretty awful last season, but he still projects far better than Sullivan or Tavares.
--Ellsbury, as mentioned, is a pretty good prospect. Nothing fantastic by any means, but a solid player who could concievably allow us to trade Crisp after next season.
--Delcarmen, because he is a cheap and potentially useful arm. Never going to be an impact player, but for a team in our financial situation the difference between getting a Delcarmen and buying a Latroy Hawkins on the FA market is the difference between having a prayer at fielding a competitive roster and not.
--Pick up no more than $30 mil of what remains on Helton's deal, and being able to defer the payment.
That's what it would take for me to have any kind of positive feeling about this deal. From what we've been reading, I've got no chance.
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