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jtur88 · August 17th, 2008, 10:57 PM

I suppose the simulations must be programmed to reflect the individual players "expected" perrormances in the remaining games. I would predict that the Cardinals bullpen is going to keep on blowing about half their save opportunities. The Cards have a slightly easier schedule---each has 15 remaining games against contenders, with the Cards an edge in home games.

Boston is quite a bit ahead of Chi/Min in the WC race, so the simulation showed neither Chi nor Min winning enough games to overtake Boston, so only one of those two teams is likely to be in the playoffs. Their combined chances are 117, which means one of them is sure to win the AL Cental, and a 17% chance that the other will obertake Boston.

If the A's are 0.06 and the Giants 0.14, they would both round off to 0.01. Maybe its relevant that Oakland is in tenth place for the wild card, a much better chance of making it than the 12-th place Giants.

August 17th, 2008, 10:57 PM	#3 (permalink)
jtur88 Hall of Famer Join Date: Nov 2006 Location: South Texas Posts: 7,864	I suppose the simulations must be programmed to reflect the individual players "expected" perrormances in the remaining games. I would predict that the Cardinals bullpen is going to keep on blowing about half their save opportunities. The Cards have a slightly easier schedule---each has 15 remaining games against contenders, with the Cards an edge in home games. Boston is quite a bit ahead of Chi/Min in the WC race, so the simulation showed neither Chi nor Min winning enough games to overtake Boston, so only one of those two teams is likely to be in the playoffs. Their combined chances are 117, which means one of them is sure to win the AL Cental, and a 17% chance that the other will obertake Boston. If the A's are 0.06 and the Giants 0.14, they would both round off to 0.01. Maybe its relevant that Oakland is in tenth place for the wild card, a much better chance of making it than the 12-th place Giants. __________________ ------------------ When people ask what I hope to see before I die, I answer that I've already seen too much. Last edited by jtur88; August 17th, 2008 at 11:08 PM.