He's not technically a prospect anymore. He'd rank third on the list, though.
Quote:
|
What research are you using that leads you to 24 for a pitcher's peak? Your own?
|
Yep.
Quote:
|
Though I wouldn't forget the potential effect of leverage.
|
Nor would I. All those numbers I gave take leverage into account. The trouble is that, in addition to leverage, there's the whole chaining issue to consider, which really cuts into a top reliever's value.
Quote:
|
One of the reasons I disagree with your Nelson ranking; he's now considered, at best, a borderline defensive SS.
|
If we tell the ProspectBot to treat Nelson as a 2B, he'd fall between McKenry and Gomez in the rankings.
Quote:
|
I don't understand how it could possibly have Chacin ahead of Rodriguez right now, especially by such a margin.
|
1) Chacin's a year younger.
2) Rodriguez has far more blah innings dragging down his projection. Those innings aren't weighted very heavily (current yearly weightings being used for him are 15.79, 6.62, 3, 1), but they still have an impact. However, the ProspectBot includes another regression factor, based on the number of IP/PA incorporated into the player's projection, to avoid overrating the small-sample guys; Chacin is probably hurt by this about as much as Aneury is hurt by his 2005-2006 blahness.
Incidentally, I'm guessing that you'll be a bit surprised by how aggressive those yearly weightings are... just imagine how utterly impossible it would be for a pitching prospect to project well if I were using something like the old 5/3/2 system.
3) The BABIP thing, as you suspected. BABIP is heavily regressed, of course, but it still counts for something. And Aneury's was pretty extreme.
4) The margin between them isn't actually that big - they're pretty tightly clustered in that group.