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Heltonfan · 07-08-2008, 12:49 AM

Updated ProspectBot rankings:

1. Ian Stewart
2. Dexter Fowler
3. Chris Nelson
4. Darin Holcomb
5. Jhoulys Chacin
6. Eric Young
7. Michael McKenry
8. Hector Gomez
9. Aneury Rodriguez
10. Everth Cabrera
11. Chaz Roe
12. Seth Smith
13. Shane Lindsay
14. Xavier Cedeno
15. Brandon Hynick
16. Daniel Mayora
17. Joe Koshansky
18. Cory Riordan
19. Sean Smith
20. Kevin Clark
21. Helder Velazquez
22. Jonathan Herrera
23. Casey Weathers
24. Ching-Lung Lo
25. Alberto Arias
26. Bruce Billings
27. Jayson Nix
28. Will Harris
29. Esmil Rogers
30. Michael Mitchell

Notes:

- I remain thoroughly skeptical of Weathers. The guy has a 4.77 MLE FIP, with a probably unsustainable HR rate, and he's not particularly young. Considering how hard it is to be really valuable as a reliever, I still think ranking him as a top-15 prospect in the organization is nuts. Compare him to, say, Michael McKenry. Who has the better shot of being, say, a 1-WAR guy? 1 WAR for a reliever is well above average, someone like Brandon Lyon or Ryan Madson. 1 WAR for a catcher is Brian Schneider. I like McKenry's odds a lot better. And of course, 1 WAR isn't much to hope for... let's raise the bar. A 2-WAR reliever is a real stud, someone like Joakim Soria, Huston Street, or (cough) Ramon Ramirez. A 2-WAR catcher is... Gregg Zaun. Again, I'll take McKenry's chances over Weathers', no doubt about it.

- The ProspectBot has grown in sophistication since we last heard from it; I'm now regressing singles rates (i.e. the aspect of BABIP most likely to be luck-driven) somewhat. And it helps Chris Nelson. Using the standard old formulas, he has a .192 ABR this year; with a league-average singles rate (singles rate being defined here as (H-XBH)/(AB-XBH-K)), he'd be at .211. That's a substantial difference. His ABR projection is currently sitting at .217, which is pretty close to replacement-level for a shortstop. Given his age, that makes him a great bet to have at least some sort of big league career, and of course, he still has the potential to do much more.

- I feel I need to reiterate here the fact that the aging patterns for hitters and pitchers are radically different, which has a tremendous effect on these rankings. Jhoulys Chacin is three years younger than Chris Nelson, but since pitchers peak three years earlier than hitters (age 24 and 27, respectively), that's not as significant as it looks. So we've got two guys here who are equally far from their peaks, time-wise, and of the two, Nelson is substantially closer to being MLB-ready. Hence their respective rankings (the calculus is a little more involved than that, of course, but the basic principle is the important thing).

- Stewart and Fowler currently rank as the #15 and #23 prospects in the game, respectively.

07-08-2008, 12:49 AM	#55 (permalink)
Heltonfan Moderator Join Date: Nov 2006 Location: Yerevan, Armenia Posts: 855	Updated ProspectBot rankings: 1. Ian Stewart 2. Dexter Fowler 3. Chris Nelson 4. Darin Holcomb 5. Jhoulys Chacin 6. Eric Young 7. Michael McKenry 8. Hector Gomez 9. Aneury Rodriguez 10. Everth Cabrera 11. Chaz Roe 12. Seth Smith 13. Shane Lindsay 14. Xavier Cedeno 15. Brandon Hynick 16. Daniel Mayora 17. Joe Koshansky 18. Cory Riordan 19. Sean Smith 20. Kevin Clark 21. Helder Velazquez 22. Jonathan Herrera 23. Casey Weathers 24. Ching-Lung Lo 25. Alberto Arias 26. Bruce Billings 27. Jayson Nix 28. Will Harris 29. Esmil Rogers 30. Michael Mitchell Notes: - I remain thoroughly skeptical of Weathers. The guy has a 4.77 MLE FIP, with a probably unsustainable HR rate, and he's not particularly young. Considering how hard it is to be really valuable as a reliever, I still think ranking him as a top-15 prospect in the organization is nuts. Compare him to, say, Michael McKenry. Who has the better shot of being, say, a 1-WAR guy? 1 WAR for a reliever is well above average, someone like Brandon Lyon or Ryan Madson. 1 WAR for a catcher is Brian Schneider. I like McKenry's odds a lot better. And of course, 1 WAR isn't much to hope for... let's raise the bar. A 2-WAR reliever is a real stud, someone like Joakim Soria, Huston Street, or (cough) Ramon Ramirez. A 2-WAR catcher is... Gregg Zaun. Again, I'll take McKenry's chances over Weathers', no doubt about it. - The ProspectBot has grown in sophistication since we last heard from it; I'm now regressing singles rates (i.e. the aspect of BABIP most likely to be luck-driven) somewhat. And it helps Chris Nelson. Using the standard old formulas, he has a .192 ABR this year; with a league-average singles rate (singles rate being defined here as (H-XBH)/(AB-XBH-K)), he'd be at .211. That's a substantial difference. His ABR projection is currently sitting at .217, which is pretty close to replacement-level for a shortstop. Given his age, that makes him a great bet to have at least some sort of big league career, and of course, he still has the potential to do much more. - I feel I need to reiterate here the fact that the aging patterns for hitters and pitchers are radically different, which has a tremendous effect on these rankings. Jhoulys Chacin is three years younger than Chris Nelson, but since pitchers peak three years earlier than hitters (age 24 and 27, respectively), that's not as significant as it looks. So we've got two guys here who are equally far from their peaks, time-wise, and of the two, Nelson is substantially closer to being MLB-ready. Hence their respective rankings (the calculus is a little more involved than that, of course, but the basic principle is the important thing). - Stewart and Fowler currently rank as the #15 and #23 prospects in the game, respectively.