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BigRapidsJackass · 05-15-2008, 05:38 PM

As for Francis:

Jeff Francis Stats and Graphs - Colorado Rockies | FanGraphs

Here's what sticks out:

Average FB velocity 86. Down 0.9 from last year, but exactly the same as it was in 2006. IR, I defer to your knowledge of pitching, and maybe he's changed his mechanics in order to sustain velocity because he's hurting. But the raw numbers alone don't give cause for concern.

He's throwing exactly the same percentage of FBs as he always has. He's substituting a few more changeups for curves this year, but that's on the order of 2-4 pitches per start. So nothing much to focus on there.

Most importantly: FIP = 5.39. Up about .80 from his career average, but up 1.20 from last year. Ks = down about 1/9 IP, BB similarly up about 1/9 IP. And the biggies: HR/9 up to 1.71 from last year's 1.04 (and .81 the year before); HR/FB up to 15% from 10% last year. And stranded 75% of runners last year vs. 68% this year.

My best purely stat-line guess: small sample, things will self-correct, he'll be fine. I still think in retrospect last year might've been a career year, but I don't see any real cause for concern ... yet.

As for Corpas:

Manny Corpas Stats and Graphs - Colorado Rockies | FanGraphs

FB velocity down about 1.5 mph from last year, but not much out of line with his career averages. Pitch selection exactly the same. GB % exactly the same. 3 HRs allowed, with the same inflated 15% HR/FB rate as Francis. K rate down a lot: 4.35 vs. 6.69. BB rate even worse: 5.66 vs. 2.31.

So I do think the sinker is still sinkin', and I don't think he's hurt. I do think he's a bit shell-shocked right now and as a result he's afraid to come right after hitters the way we're used to seeing. Most of all, I think he needs work and lots of it, and I wouldn't mind a quick trip back to AAA (or even Tulsa) to get that work in. Hurdle seems afraid to use him in game situations right now, and I think he's unlikely to get past this if he's not out on the mound.

EDIT: Another biggie for Corpas: stranded a whopping (and unsustainable) 85% of baserunners last year; only 64% this year. And most of all: he's got all of 20 IP this year, the equivalent of about 3 starts.

05-15-2008, 05:38 PM	#3 (permalink)
BigRapidsJackass Veteran Member Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 1,147	As for Francis: Jeff Francis Stats and Graphs - Colorado Rockies \| FanGraphs Here's what sticks out: Average FB velocity 86. Down 0.9 from last year, but exactly the same as it was in 2006. IR, I defer to your knowledge of pitching, and maybe he's changed his mechanics in order to sustain velocity because he's hurting. But the raw numbers alone don't give cause for concern. He's throwing exactly the same percentage of FBs as he always has. He's substituting a few more changeups for curves this year, but that's on the order of 2-4 pitches per start. So nothing much to focus on there. Most importantly: FIP = 5.39. Up about .80 from his career average, but up 1.20 from last year. Ks = down about 1/9 IP, BB similarly up about 1/9 IP. And the biggies: HR/9 up to 1.71 from last year's 1.04 (and .81 the year before); HR/FB up to 15% from 10% last year. And stranded 75% of runners last year vs. 68% this year. My best purely stat-line guess: small sample, things will self-correct, he'll be fine. I still think in retrospect last year might've been a career year, but I don't see any real cause for concern ... yet. As for Corpas: Manny Corpas Stats and Graphs - Colorado Rockies \| FanGraphs FB velocity down about 1.5 mph from last year, but not much out of line with his career averages. Pitch selection exactly the same. GB % exactly the same. 3 HRs allowed, with the same inflated 15% HR/FB rate as Francis. K rate down a lot: 4.35 vs. 6.69. BB rate even worse: 5.66 vs. 2.31. So I do think the sinker is still sinkin', and I don't think he's hurt. I do think he's a bit shell-shocked right now and as a result he's afraid to come right after hitters the way we're used to seeing. Most of all, I think he needs work and lots of it, and I wouldn't mind a quick trip back to AAA (or even Tulsa) to get that work in. Hurdle seems afraid to use him in game situations right now, and I think he's unlikely to get past this if he's not out on the mound. EDIT: Another biggie for Corpas: stranded a whopping (and unsustainable) 85% of baserunners last year; only 64% this year. And most of all: he's got all of 20 IP this year, the equivalent of about 3 starts. Last edited by BigRapidsJackass; 05-15-2008 at 05:48 PM.