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BigRapidsJackass · 05-15-2008, 02:09 PM

1. Pretty bad. Lose tonight and we're 11 games out by the middle of May. We're also on a pace for a 60-win season.

2. Not quite as bad as we look. The BP "adjusted standings" thing should be taken with a boulder of salt, but here it is:

Postseason Odds

On their "third-order wins" (taking into account pythagorean records, plus strength of schedule, plus strength of opposing pitchers, and maybe some other stuff that I really don't understand), we stand right at about .500. If this is to be believed, the standings cheat us out of 4.8 victories vs. our true level of performance.

3. What explains it? Mostly pathetic hitting. So there's cause for optimism, since the Rox certainly won't end the season at or near the bottom of the NL in HRs. They also won't end the season 29th in hitting with RISP. This is mostly attributable to ... good opposition pitching and lots of bad luck.

4. Who has been a true disappointment, and who is likely to get it turned around?

A. Disappointment and likely will never turn it around: Nix. Bad, but there was a chance he's be o.k. Baker: I give up; so should you. Torrealba: strikes me as inferior defensively to Iannetta right now, and that doesn't leave him with any value.

B. Lucky at the start and will get worse: Iannetta. But I still think he'll be a solid-to-better-than-average starter. He just won't keep this up. Cook. He'll be 'ol reliable Aaron Cook, but he won't win 24 games. Kip Wells. Herges. Barmes (but I do think he's reestablished some trade value once Tulo's back -- he is very good defensively at SS).

C. Will turn it around: Corpas. Hawpe. Helton. Francis. Taveras. Holliday. We pretty much know what to expect from them, and their numbers will look familiar come September. Tulo, too. He may not reach '07's heights, but most rational observers never expected that. He'll be fine.

D. What you see is what you get: Atkins. Podsednik. Spilborghs (but expect, finally, more playing time). Buchholz. Fuentes. Jimenez (for this season). Morales (no real improvement, at least for now). Grilli. De la Rosa (but he'll be better in the pen). Quintanilla.

So things will get better. Real hope for pulling back into contention would require a true breakout from more than one of Reynolds/Jimenez/Morales/Hirsh/Stewart (allowing Atkins to be moved). They are all capable of it, but individually each one is something of a longshot. Or a very significant trade. The primary impact would be, of course, where we're worst: 2B. But I don't see a lot of top-third second basemen on the trading block. Which leaves us with ideas like Ronny Cedeno, or maybe with a rebuilding project with talent like Josh Barfield (currently struggling even at AAA, but I'd say it's better to let a guy like him play and try to turn it around than playing a Quintanilla type full time at 2B; those Q types will always be readily available for little money.)

So it's bleak, and moving quickly toward almost hopeless as far as playoff chances go. Things could all fall in line like last year, but we'd need a collapse similar to that of the Mets last year to open up the wildcard chances. The D'backs look too deep to seriously falter this year.

In another month it'll be serious stock-taking time for O'Dowd and friends. Fuentes/Atkins/Hawpe (and certainly Vizcaino if he ever makes it back) should be on the block unless the Rox really make a move.

05-15-2008, 02:09 PM	#1 (permalink)
BigRapidsJackass Veteran Member Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 1,123	So how bad is it ... really? 1. Pretty bad. Lose tonight and we're 11 games out by the middle of May. We're also on a pace for a 60-win season. 2. Not quite as bad as we look. The BP "adjusted standings" thing should be taken with a boulder of salt, but here it is: Postseason Odds On their "third-order wins" (taking into account pythagorean records, plus strength of schedule, plus strength of opposing pitchers, and maybe some other stuff that I really don't understand), we stand right at about .500. If this is to be believed, the standings cheat us out of 4.8 victories vs. our true level of performance. 3. What explains it? Mostly pathetic hitting. So there's cause for optimism, since the Rox certainly won't end the season at or near the bottom of the NL in HRs. They also won't end the season 29th in hitting with RISP. This is mostly attributable to ... good opposition pitching and lots of bad luck. 4. Who has been a true disappointment, and who is likely to get it turned around? A. Disappointment and likely will never turn it around: Nix. Bad, but there was a chance he's be o.k. Baker: I give up; so should you. Torrealba: strikes me as inferior defensively to Iannetta right now, and that doesn't leave him with any value. B. Lucky at the start and will get worse: Iannetta. But I still think he'll be a solid-to-better-than-average starter. He just won't keep this up. Cook. He'll be 'ol reliable Aaron Cook, but he won't win 24 games. Kip Wells. Herges. Barmes (but I do think he's reestablished some trade value once Tulo's back -- he is very good defensively at SS). C. Will turn it around: Corpas. Hawpe. Helton. Francis. Taveras. Holliday. We pretty much know what to expect from them, and their numbers will look familiar come September. Tulo, too. He may not reach '07's heights, but most rational observers never expected that. He'll be fine. D. What you see is what you get: Atkins. Podsednik. Spilborghs (but expect, finally, more playing time). Buchholz. Fuentes. Jimenez (for this season). Morales (no real improvement, at least for now). Grilli. De la Rosa (but he'll be better in the pen). Quintanilla. So things will get better. Real hope for pulling back into contention would require a true breakout from more than one of Reynolds/Jimenez/Morales/Hirsh/Stewart (allowing Atkins to be moved). They are all capable of it, but individually each one is something of a longshot. Or a very significant trade. The primary impact would be, of course, where we're worst: 2B. But I don't see a lot of top-third second basemen on the trading block. Which leaves us with ideas like Ronny Cedeno, or maybe with a rebuilding project with talent like Josh Barfield (currently struggling even at AAA, but I'd say it's better to let a guy like him play and try to turn it around than playing a Quintanilla type full time at 2B; those Q types will always be readily available for little money.) So it's bleak, and moving quickly toward almost hopeless as far as playoff chances go. Things could all fall in line like last year, but we'd need a collapse similar to that of the Mets last year to open up the wildcard chances. The D'backs look too deep to seriously falter this year. In another month it'll be serious stock-taking time for O'Dowd and friends. Fuentes/Atkins/Hawpe (and certainly Vizcaino if he ever makes it back) should be on the block unless the Rox really make a move. Last edited by BigRapidsJackass; 05-15-2008 at 02:13 PM.