To understand McLaren here you must first realize that John McLaren is stuck in a 70s style NL ballgame. He doesn't really know that ANY research has been done on baseball strategy/tactics. What was true then, is true now and for always. Seriously he's hardwired that way.
So with Lopez you have a two hole hitter in the classic wasted (idiots say productive) out mode. Oddly, local talk radio host and former Major Leaguer Jeff Nelson defended the move saying "He's a two hitter, his job is to move the runner over no matter what." There is little to no recognition that in those circumstances Street is likely to be pitching a little bit away from the former All Star second baseman who is off to a 319/320/415 start, but considering the baserunner, that high batting average matters, on most singles Ichiro is likely to be on third. When Ichiro walked, the Mariners had a 35% chance of winning the game. McLaren dropped that down to 22% because he chose to have a bad bunter bunt in a non-bunt situation.
The timing of Ichiro's steal was also absurd. When he did steal after the second out the chances of winning only went up 5% because of the out situation (2). A man on second with only one out has a much better chance of scoring (about 16%) and kills the chances of a Raul Ibanez GIDP (recall there would have been only one out), while yes Raul is off to a hot start 326/375/565, the steal doesn't prevent Raul from getting a hit it would have just maximized the effectiveness of Ibanez solid bat.
I don't understand the thinking there at all. John McLaren chose to lose that game. There's some kind of study that shows the difference between an awful manager and a great manager is 10 games (+/- 5) McLaren is showing early in the season that he's easily a -4, if not a -5.
Congrats on the win, we gave it to you.
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