Lincecum's control still isn't good enough for him to be much of an asset at the big league level. He could probably post a 4.50 ERC or so in the big leagues right now, but he'd be averaging around 5 innings a start; not particularly useful. I'm very high on him as a prospect, but he's not ready yet, and he won't be ready by the All-Star break.
But I do have the Giants projected at an even 81-81, so I think your overall assessment is right on the money.
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